Experimental Evidence on Rossi Devices

  • If there was significant energy from this lost to the system then the betas would have been detected by the careful radiation monitoring.


    Maybe. Or is this true? Betas will only be stopped gradually, skipping along like a rock on the surface of a pond, exciting photons in the visible to x-ray range. These photons are generally of an energy that will readily be stopped by the walls of the reactor.

  • Quote

    There were plenty of other elements in the experiment.


    In order to save the idea that Rossi's experiment might be real, you are proposing reactions between contaminants from the ash holder (Si etc) and the Ni? I guess you could propose a reaction with the Al2O3 reactor housing. such a flight of fancy seems silly, and not enough to argue that my comment, contingent as it was, is ill-judged.

  • I replied here. My argument is irrefutable and you did not in any way refute it. At around this point you honestly stated that you distrusted anything I said, gave as evidence the small section of the report dealing with isotopic measurements, and we argued about that.


    You stand having made a provably (anyone reading this thread can see) false statement. I am surprised at your lack of gentlemanly behaviour in this matter, but perhaps in the heat of the argument you just forgot this?


    It's not irrefutable, and I've sought to address shortcomings in it. I acknowledge the error about assuming you lacked an understanding of balancing nuclear equations. But that does not negate most of the rest of what I've said. I believe your analysis to have been flawed, and I have attempted to show why it's flawed. (Note that I edited the quote you quoted from me to be more measured.)


    My aim is not to convince you of anything. It's to protect visitors here from misunderstandings that could arise from casual generalizations. I apologize if my behavior has been ungentlemanly. I will not step away from correcting what I believe to be erroneous or mistaken statements, time and energy permitting.

  • Eric,


    Quote

    These photons are generally of an energy that will readily be stopped by the walls of the reactor.


    You are I think in "react not think" mode here.


    If stopped by the reactor walls then the energy does not escape, and the argument remains. :)

  • Quote

    It's not irrefutable, and I've refuted it. I acknowledge the error about assuming you lacked an understanding of balancing nuclear equations. But that does not negate most of the rest of what I've said. I believe your analysis to have been flawed, and I believe I've shown why it's flawed.


    In this case I think it is "react not read". When I said irrefutable, and used such strong language, it was about the excess heat correction I made - note the context from which that must be clear. Whatever other uncertainties, the excess heat correction was the main (not second order) quantitative issue and my calculation is correct, theirs is wrong. Therefore my result is more correct than theirs. You have never refuted this. However you have stated in unequivocable terms that this is not true. Your repeated statement is false.

  • You are I think in "react not think" mode here.


    If stopped by the reactor walls then the energy does not escape, and the argument remains.


    No -- it's the neutrinos that carry away energy, because they are far lighter than the electrons. The betas are surely stopped. The betas in general will carry away ~ 1/3 of the Q value of a reaction.

  • Therefore my result is more correct than theirs. You have never refuted this.


    Maybe it is -- that is not inconsistent with my original position. It perhaps is inconsistent with a more recent formulation of my position. But the Stefan-Bolzmann problem is a fatal one. What's the point of being more correct about something that no trust can be placed in?

  • Colwyn, my simplified calculations above show without doubt that there is a severe inconsistency in the Lugano report data. The conclusion from this is that if data from the dummy test is correct then the measurement of input power in the main test is seriously flawed.


    This inconsistency has been brought to the attention of the test group with, to the best of my knowledge, no response. Rossi was also informed about the problem and he took it seriously enough to invent an outlandish claim that the heating elements in the dogbone were made from some (of course) secret material with highly nonlinear properties.


    This claim clashes with the Lugo report where it is clearly stated that the heating elements were made of Inconel wire.


    To sum up: there is an inconsistency in the data of the Lugano report that makes it possible to evaluate it in two different ways.


    The first evaluation model results in release of excess power that cannot be explained by standard physics.


    The second model gives no anomalous excess power which is exactly what you would expect when you apply standard physics to a heated sample of ordinary substances.


    In the absence of communication with the test group we have to make our own guess which of the alternatives that is the most likely. Which is your choice?

  • Thomas prefers another explanation. Probably the truth is somewhere in between.



    H-G,


    I don't think that Thomas' error margins allows for very much of a compromise. It seems to me that we will have too choose explanation model. Question is then what to choose. I worked through the details of Thomas criticism of the Lugano report and to me it looked reasonable. This Joule heating issue I am not so familiar with, but perhaps that is a very strong argument also? Are there any sources of uncertainty for that case?

  • To be fair, I'm not confident about my error margins. They are "guestimates". I have not spent a lot of time trying to be precise about how large are the systematic errors here. If I were to do that the first thing I would do is get a better handle on the translucency error - which is the largest potential error I can see. There are two ways to do that: estimate it from the COP acceleration figures, or estimate it from known opacity of al2o3 at different frequencies. Neither looks very promising.

  • Could you perhaps let us know more about what you think is the Stefan-Boltzmann problem?


    The Stefan-Bolzmann law relates the radiative power to the fourth power of the temperature. Depending on what temperature you use, the radiative power will vary significantly. That makes the equation a very sensitive one, and if one is going to use it, one must get the temperature exactly right. If you look at the Optris camera data and you lowball the temperature, that will lead to a low COP. If you take that data and you highball the temperature, who knows how high a COP you could get. Note that the output of the equation is being integrated over time.


    If the sensitivity of the Stefan-Bolzmann law were not enough, the Lugano team did not do a proper calibration of the camera within the operating range of temperatures of the live E-Cat, increasing the likelihood that the derived temperature was not a reliable input. The lessons I take away are (a) use various cross-checks as a sanity check (e.g., thermocouples); (b) do proper calibrations; and, most importantly, (c) use a method of calorimetry that does not rely on such a sensitive mathematical model. And probably (d), get someone who does this kind of thing for a living to set up and run the test. Given the methods the Lugano team used, I would not be surprised if someone could put together a paper arguing that the upper bound on the COP was 6 or higher.

    • Official Post

    What is really a shame is that the professors had the option to run the Lugano Hotcat in Self Sustain (SSM)...electricity provided only to the control system. Yet, they decided not to. All they had to do was flip a switch, and the control system would have taken care of it for them. Had they done so, there would be no doubt of COP>1 once power was cut to the heater, no matter their failure to properly calibrate for the live run.


    I always thought it strange that Rossi would be so stupid to tell the profs: "hey guys, flip this switch if you want it to run in SSM" had he knowingly delivered them a regular old space heater. It wouldn't have taken them long to see they were duped. Quite a gamble too on Rossi's part, to hope, pray probably, they would not take him up on the offer, and then be so lucky they bungled everything else too!


    But, TC, MY, JC say he did just that, so who am I to wonder these things?

  • Distinguished scientists, physicists. Try to experiment with the following parameters: Ni (no matter what though sawdust, although the nano-nickel) under hydrogen atmosphere, slowly heated up to 1200C, with a rate of 1 C / min. When the temperature of the reactor 1100-1200S turn off the power for a few seconds (temperature spike). I am sure will! Just try it. I did it happen!
    Here's a chart of today's experiment http://www.jivisam.ru/uploads/energia/16.1_.16_.jpghttp://www.jivisam.ru/uploads/energia/16.1_.16_1_.jpg


    14:50-15:35pm
    During the 40 minutes allocated an additional capacity of at least 100W. The graph output three times.

    • Official Post

    No where in the Lugano report do they mention SSM, but by this excerpt from that report, it sounds like the "On/Off" switch they are referring to, switches between manual/SSM?:


    We also chose not to induce the ON/OFF power input mode used in the March 2013 test, despite the fact that we had been informed that the reactor was capable of operating under such conditions for as long a time as necessary. That power input mode, however, would have caused significant temperature increases during the brief intervals of time in which power was fed to the reactor. Moreover, the emissivity of alumina is temperature-dependent: this would have made all calculations troublesome and rendered analysis of the acquired data difficult

  • If true, Shane, silly people, well deserving of the derisive appellation "blind mice". And why do they not respond to Branzell's and Clarke's polite, relevant and well thought out critiques?

  • Sorry Colwyn,


    As you will realise I got distracted by comments from Eric.


    Quote

    ...What I'm interested in answering is: If you set the alumina temperature to read, say, 1525C when Optris emissivity is set at 0.4, what does your code estimate the true temperature to be, assuming the correct emissivity setting is 0.95?


    You'd need to use the code in the paper, or a web Planck calculator (easier). BTW the code should run fine on Python 2.7 but maybe it needs a bit of scipy or something - I can't remember to tell the truth - it should say in comments at the top, or look at the import statements.


    Use a plank radiation calculator that gives you band radiation output, set the band to 7um - 13um (exact limits not so important).


    Call the BB radiance you get from this for a BB of temp T: L(T). (You are measuring T in C here).
    So L is the function you can calculate from T using the BB calculator. The units of L don't matter, as we will see. BTW my code does this by numerical integration over the band of the Planck curve.


    Because we input 0.4 into the camera it will assume the real radiance is 2.5X larger than that measured, which will be 0.95L(Tx) where Tx is the temperature you had to turn the tube to. It is saying it thinks the real temperature is 1525C, so we have:
    (0.95/0.4)*L(Tx) = L(1525)


    You can see why the units for L don't matter though it must be proportional to optical power (rather than, say, the square root of this). Radiance does fine.


    Quote

    Also, what would the temperature appear to be, according to your code, if the Optris was instead set to 0.7, in the situation described above?


    As before but (0.95/0.7) factor.


    If you don't want to use a BB calculator for L you can get an estimate - around these temperatures the band radiance varies as roughly T^2 or in your case (T+273)^2. (this is approximate, from memory, maybe 1.9 is more exact!).
    So:
    1800/(Tx+273) = 1.54 or 1.16 =>
    T = 895 or T=1280 (all numbers approximate because I have not bothered to do exact band radiance calc).


    Quote

    Does your model estimate radiative and convective transfer separately?


    Yes but I cheat. There are actually many different parts of the reactor at different temps. I ignore this and use the scaling for convection from their equation, and assume the reactor body is the main radiative component. Obviously the lower temp parts have radiative output scaled differently. I think I actually separate body and rods radiation, with a separate average temperature for each. Not very precise but these really are second order corrections. luckily the convective components are small at the active test temperatures, and also the reactor body far predominates over anything else.



    Quote

    What were the values you used to determine your COP figure? And at what alumina temperature?


    I used the temperatures given in the report (average reactor body). You see, the report gives calculated temperatures, and all I have to do is work out the scaling factor and apply that to those.


    Having got the corrected temperatures I then generate corrected radiant output powers from report radiant out powers by multiplying:
    Pcorr = (epsiloncorr/epsilonrep)*Prep *(Tcorr/Trep)^4
    Epsilonrep is their book value for Trep. Epsiloncorr is the same thing for Tcorr. The book values are as good as any, and variation in epsilon from this has only a linear affect on power out and hence COP.


    And finally, are your integration calculations based on a derived-from-equation Rayleigh Jeans (or Plank) curve, or some empirical results from an alumina sample?


    The band emisivity comes from Bob Higgins spectral emissivity values, which are empirical and his best estimate. But since at these frequencies epsilon is always pretty near to 1 I don't expect a big difference. The only other value relevant is epsiloncorr and that is (total radiance) from the Lugano book values. At the lower corrected temp this is higher and the book graph (itself empirical) seems OK. Of course there will be variation with different alumina microcrystalline structure etc.


    If you wanted error bounds I'd say that epsiloncorr is the main issue, affected both by alumina properties and by the fact that the tube is translucent at higher frequencies so for part of the power the real emissivity and size are different.


    PS - you could read the paper where this is all discussed, and the code for the details of the calculation.

  • Thanks Tom, that helps. No worries about getting distracted. Sorry to have badgered you!


    I'm more interested in the values calculated by your script than the rougher answer given by (0.95/0.4)*L(Tx) = L(1525)... I think I understand the changes that I need to make to calculate the data points I am interested in.


    For what it's worth, I agree with your interpretation of the emissivity issues as compared to Bob Higgins' paper. My goal is just to assess, or perhaps calibrate your model with real word alumina/optris data from MFMP, hence the seemingly strange questions.


    I'll have another go at getting it a Python interpreter running. It surely can't be as hard as I appear to be making it!


    I assume I can paste your script into a .txt file, rename it as a .py, and (if all the correct libraries are installed - cheers for the SciPy tip) it should work...?


    .

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