Self-Interest and LENR (Edmund Storms)

    • Official Post

    Note about morrison that Morrison is only the most incompetent to have factually criticized F&P by proposing "explanations".
    His personality, beside what you can infer from the exchanges with F&P, is described by Jed
    http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrob…ellJcoldfusion.pdf#page=4

    Quote


    In rare cases, a few scientists have been guilty of even more unethical behavior. McKubre and other prominent cold fusion scientists have given copies of journal papers to prominent critics, including Douglas Morrison, Robert Park, and John Huizenga. The papers directly contradict assertions made by the critics regarding matters of fact, not opinion, such as the amount of energy produced by cells in continuous bursts, the percent of input versus output, or the amount of chemical energy that a mass 0.5 grams of palladium deuteride will release as it degasses. Morrison often claims the degassing can account for the heat produced during an experiment performed by Fleischmann and Pons. Fleischmann gave him a paper showing conclusively that he is mistaken by a factor of 1,700.6 Morrison has been told about this mistake countless times, at conferences, in writing, and in a formal reply published in Physics Letters A. Yet he recently contacted a Nobel laureate and repeated the same misinformation. Fortunately, the Nobel scientist contacted me, and I was able to give him the correct numbers.


    and Charles Beaudette say the same without much details, surveying the claims of the only other 3 critics : Hansen, Lewis, and Wilson
    http://iccf9.global.tsinghua.edu.cn/lenr home page/acrobat/BeaudetteCexcessheat.pdf#page=35


    The upshot of this conflict was that the scientific community failed to give anomalous heat the evaluation that was its due. Scientists of orthodox views, in the first six years of this episode, produced only four critical reviews of the two chemists’ calorimetry work. The first report came in 1989 (N. S. Lewis). It dismissed the Utah claim for anomalous power on grounds of faulty laboratory technique. A second review was produced in 1991 (W. N. Hansen) that strongly supported the claim. It was based on an independent analysis of cell data that was provided by the two chemists. An extensive review completed in 1992 (R. H. Wilson) was highly critical though not conclusive. But it did recognize the existence of anomalous power, which carried the implication that the Lewis dismissal was mistaken. A fourth review was produced in 1994 (D. R. O. Morrison) which was itself unsatisfactory. It was rebutted strongly to the point of dismissal and correctly in my view. No defense was offered against the rebuttal. During those first six years, the community of orthodox scientists produced no report of a flaw in the heat measurements that was subsequently sustained by other reports.


    What is funny is that Wilson in fact confirm F&P by bashing Lewis and hansen claims, and adding a tiny correction which does not change the general results.


    It really stinks, any true-skeptic should admit the critic of F&P stink like pseudo-science.


    Given that visible psychiatric context, any observer of the case should be cautious with the critics and especially with argument ad hominem, and anything that cannot be experimentally proved.

  • So: my approach to this matter is:


    (1) leave off character judgements. The original paper, the comment from Morrison, and the reply are all about facts. It gets in the way of objective assessment if you form ideas about character. Arguments should and can stand independently of personality. Similarly leave off character judgement of participants in this debate. For example, I am currently (based on a not complete examination of the issue, so my position could change) a critic of this specific write-up. Based on my current reading of the paper and related material (totalling probably about 60 minutes - not long enough) I see a number of problematic issues. I don't think that (providsional) judgement means that I stink. Nor do I think such language enables a clear and polite debate.


    (2) leave off qualifications. These might perhaps bear some relevance, but again the context of the arguments shows this better. If people write incompentently or with competence on this specific issue this can be assessed and anything else is an unnecessary (and harmful) generalisation.


    (3) Be explicit about context. If, for example, you feel that LENR - defined as the reproducible existence of genuine heat excess anomalies that are far beyond accepted chemical limits - is proven elsewhere, you will not see such a claim in F&Ps paper as extraordinary. If you don't feel that, then the claim is extraordinary. For me, the claim is indeed extraordinary and if strongly supported would be most interesting. The flip side of that is that to support an extraordinary claim you need extraordinary evidence. For Alain, perhaps, the claim is not extraordinary and therefore the evidence required is less strong.


    (4) Consider just this one paper, and its criticism and the replies. In doing this we can look at the strength of the evidence here independently of other work. This is limited, but it gives some hope of a definitive answer.


    In the light of the above let me be clear. I personally do not see that the existence of LENR (defined as above) is currently shown. Therefore evidence for this would be extraordinary, and require extraordinary proof. Quantity of ordinary evidence does not help here, because as with UFO sightings it is easy for there to be a large quantity of apparently strong ordinary evidence that is nevertheless all wrongly interpreted. Luckily getting such proof in science is pretty easy. All you need is one bulletproof and reproducible experiment. (The results can be probabilistic, if the phenomena has some random element, but multiple labs must be able to generate the "extraordinary" result and this must survive cross-checks and better instrumentation etc.)


    If others here feel that (for some other reason) LENR is already proven, then such a claim would be ordinary, and it would be fair to go on "balance of probabilities".


    You will see that between these two different contexts someone of good will with essentially the same judgement here could come to different conclusions based on their prior judgment of the "has LENR been shown" issue.


    Finally on the matter of likes/dislikes here. Personally, I use this mechanism very rarely. I "like" posts that seem particularly insightful or bring new matters to the debate. I never dislike posts - except maybe were a post to be deliberately and personally hostile. It is of course for everyone to do what they choose, but I'd like those on this thread to consider the posts above. A number of my posts have been liked (without as far as I can see any particlular merit) and also disliked (again without as far as I can see any demerit). I expect both are done on the basis of whether someone agrees with me or not. Such a habit makes it more difficult to identify truly interesting (on whatever side of debate) posts from others. Anyway that is of course just my view and others may see differently.


    I've said it will take me some time, but I promise to go through the tangled arguments between F&P and Morrison and try to come to some summary view on each one, which I will post here. We can then have our different views about specific parts of the argument, which may be easier to assess than considering as a whole.

    • Official Post

    Pierre,


    I think the field has matured beyond such gimmicks. Brillouin Energy, Rossi, and probably Piantelli, Miley, etc. are flush with far more funding than the mere $100,000 you suggest as a wager. So why bother? That is chump change in the scheme of things.


    With respectable universities, commercial industrial research institutions, governments across the globe all within the past few years investing in LENR , either for the science, or reward of a marketable product, it might be more appropriate at this point to debate...


    Did they commit in this highly toxic environment on a whim? Stake their reputations, risk their investment dollars... whether that be for profit or on the merits of the science, based on deeds?... or words, rumors, hope, naivety as the sea of skeps want us to think?

  • Shane, you brought up this:


    "With respectable universities, commercial industrial research institutions, governments across the globe all within the past few years investing in LENR , either for the science, or reward of a marketable product, it might be more appropriate at this point to debate..."


    and this:


    ""Well then, MY probably has a bet for you! Unless you two are on the same team that is?"


    How about putting your balls on the line, you chicken?


    Bet or no bet?

    • Official Post

    Pierre,


    That was in response to Paradig. Nonetheless, whomever throws down the betting challenge, I think it silly. Childish actually. Like a school yard taunt. Proves nothing.


    Science is serious stuff, and such antics only serve to distract away from the merits. No place for it. It is either real or not, and bets won't change that. Nor make the facts, or metadata, any different from what they already are.


    If you must though, may I also refer you to MY?

  • Yes, you can refer me as MY, though that is not my name.


    From now on, I wil refer you as "Chicken". because that's what you are.


    If, any day, you REALLY believe in LENR. tell me. I have an easy 100.000 dollars for a REAL believer in LENR, not a poser like you.


    By the way, the offer is valid for any other pose... Believer. Anyone, Bueller...?

    • Official Post

    Pierre,


    I wasn't referring to you as MY, but referring you TO MY. For your betting that is. He loves that stuff. But he is a skep too, as it appears you are, so probably nothing to wager against each other there.


    LOLs too..."chicken" am I? Just because I think betting on a scientific outcome is useless, and boring to boot? Look, betting is not my gig. Doesn't do a thing for me. Yes, I know for some it is everything. Beforehand it won't change the eventual outcome of the game, but that won't stop the madness in my opinion.


    In our case, betting won't change the reality, or not, of LENR. So what is the point? That said, I have no doubt LENR is real, and that it will be proven soon, and I bet real soon. :)

  • @Pierre


    $100K is too much for an internet bet. You'd need very careful arrangements and arbitration, and for myself, I never bet more than I'm happy to lose, which means on the order of $1K.


    I agree with you, talk of bets except when truly willing to bet - as both I an MY am, Shane will say, is silly.

  • Pierre, calm down ;)


    Not healthy to get angry you know :D


    If you have $100 000K to spend you could contact Brillouin Energy (Godes) or JET energy (Mitchell Swartz), and ask them to demonstrate.


    Both companies have have claimed working LENR devices. So it should be easy enough to set up a demonstration.


    But of course, they are just good magicians, nothing real, so move on.

  • In case anyone are interested in a not-too-scientific-and-complicated but informative slides on the CF history and present status from a Hagelstein veiwpoint:


    His talk at IEEE Sept.23 at 2015 in North Reading sums up his thoughts. Focus on F&P type eletrolysis experiements and a possible theory. In my opninion very interesting summary.


    Interesting to note the work of re-analysing early negative papers using Pd, calorimetry and elecrochemistry)
    --> Negative early replication efforts very liekly caused by none having high enough D/Pd ratio, a requirement that was identified in the 1990’s.


    Also interesting to note the F&P experiment from 1990 showing 630 KJ of excess heat in the heat burst. And this from an electrode of just 0,157 cm3 volume.


    Bursts of heats was also a charactistics of the F&P type experiments. Sudden release of heat lasting various time periods. What caused these bursts of heat? What was the mechanism?


    In chemical energy (my calc) you would need 19 cm3 of gasoline to achieve the same amount of energy, i.e. 123 times larger volume of hydrocarbons compared to the Deuterium loaded Pd electrode in above case.


    Ref. Hagelstein slides
    http://coldfusionnow.org/wp-co…gelstein-Talk-09-2015.pdf


    The F&P et.al paper referred to is this one from 1990:
    http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/Fleischmancalorimetr.pdf

    • Official Post

    Back to the question of self-interest,
    this article seems funny but is not so much
    http://gizmodo.com/one-way-tha…ent-from-other-1743990559
    "neuroscientists’ brains get more excited about publishing in Nature Neuroscience than about stacks of 500 Euro notes."


    It remind me JP Biberian in his book, explaining that the boss of the CEA lab where Longchampt was, stopped LENr research, however successful, because he was afraid it would ruin his Nobel chances.


    This is why the policy of peer-review is more important than money incentives.

  • That didn't look like a bet to me. It looked like a reward or prize, for the $100,000. Real science all too often costs real money. A big fat prize would be a welcome incentive to many, and would go a long way for an independent experimenter/inventor. The devil is in the details for what is considered to be proof of LENR. Most people cannot even agree what LENR is. What if it is something in between chemical and nuclear? Does that count? Do inner valence electron reactions count? Do controlled Coulomb repulsion reactions count?

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