Distinguishing non-belief and disbelief... on skepticism...

  • Well Mary,


    "OK oystla. 1998. Where is replication? Where are improvements? Where is a practical application? Or don't you expect that in 18 years+?"


    Replication?


    What about NASA Ni-H LENR research?
    http://climate.nasa.gov/news/864/


    Improvements? Practical applications?


    Going from lab to claimed commercial systems with a not-yet-understood-mysterious-nuclear-energy-source in only 18 years is almost non believable. But still...


    If we concentrate on pure Ni-H systems, we could point to
    Godes: http://brillouinenergy.com
    Piantelli: http://www.nichenergy.com/index.html


    And of courses must not forget ;)
    http://ecat.com/about


    Perhaps they all live an illusion. We'll see :)

  • TYY


    Quote from frankwtu: “pages.csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/cf/357ap08217.pdf”


    Best regards
    Frank


    So, Frank. I understand this is your one piece of conclusive evidence I asked for. Very good. So how should we proceed to take a close look at it together?


    A separate thread maybe?

  • So, Frank. I understand this is your one piece of conclusive evidence I asked for.


    I know this game, because I've seen several times over the last few years. Each study that is brought forth will be summarily shot down by way of the keen insight and perspicacity of the intellectual gladiator raising the challenge.


    The link that was given was to a criticism by Ludwik Kowalski to the CR-39 studies. I think the links you want are here: Are We at or Near the Tipping Point?. If there are too many to look at, you can start with http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/MosierBosscharacteri.pdf. Here is the punchline: if you find something obviously wrong, in the sense that they're not even trained correctly in science, you will be invited to submit a criticism to Eur. Phys. J. Appl. Phys. This will be very easy to do for you to do, since you are well-versed in how science is done, and it will be satisfying and straightforward, since the errors are surely basic ones.

  • Eric


    Thanks for the swift rescue, I found the articles you suggested particularly interesting and thought they would be of interest to others who might be better placed to understand them than me, but I did not expect to be ambushed by a 'reputation trap' with such force.


    Very best regards
    Frank

  • TYY


    I have no wish to engage you in battle on a separate post but I understand you could be invited to submit a criticism to Eur. Phys. J. Appl. Phys. I would be very interested to read that if you would care to post a link here .......


    Thank you for the invitation all the same.


    Best regards
    Frank

  • Eric,


    I have no intention, nor am I qualified, to shoot anything down. I am just saying, that the experiment by Pam M-B is exactly the kind of evidence, that characterizes cold fusion research.


    The experiment producing these pits seem to be reproducible. But it is unclear to me why they are supposed to be caused by nuclear processes. If that would be the case, it would be a revolutionary discovery, of course.


    From my point of view, my claim that LENR research only produces anecdotal evidence, is backed up you this experiment, which is supposed to be "good" evidence. But no piece of evidence like this can stand on its own, so that's why the supporters of cold fusion need "a mass of evidence".


    I do not want to play "games". I would be sincerely interested in true evidence hinting that LENR is real. Still unable to find even one that is more than marginally interesting.

  • @colwyn
    It might not be quite $59M total and I am pretty sure Rossi got nowhere near that much personally, but yes, for a collection of junk. Garbage. All connected to a GIANT power panel. Do I have to show you the image of it again? 440V 3 phase -- enough to power a locomotive probably. Woodford and [lexicon]IH[/lexicon] will look like morons eventually. Not sure when but suspect two years. It took almost four for Defkalion to go belly up.


    @oystla
    NASA did not replicate any LENR work. Brillouin is completely unproved and not independently tested. McKubre is in bed with Godes and is too gullible anyway to evaluate anything. No idea what Nichenergy has. If it's Piantelli, it's microscopic quantities of heat almost certainly from a measurement error. And then you quote Rossi's site as evidence for Rossi? Yikes! Hopeless.

  • A picture of a power panel (and your associated "engineering analysis") will prove nothing, as you have killed your credibility with that silly comment about locomotives.


    A friendly suggestion: stick to fields you understand. If there are any.


    Indeed.


    I find it interesting that before spending $59m, Woodford and Co. must have had a look at Gary Wright's attack website (apparently your favourite website) and decided it was nonsense.


    I also wonder whether during their 2.5 year due diligence they came across some of your posts; breathless, abusive, CAPITALISED, and decided you were another disbeliever not to be taken seriously?

  • The experiment producing these pits seem to be reproducible. But it is unclear to me why they are supposed to be caused by nuclear processes. If that would be the case, it would be a revolutionary discovery, of course.


    These pits are characteristic of energetic alphas and protons -- particles that have MeV's of energy. As you are aware, MeV's of energy imply something very strange indeed; it would be more difficult to suggest something other than nuclear in origin in this instance. Perhaps you can think of something. One can see that the pits are characteristic of energetic alphas with the americium standard that they use on the corner of each chip. The pits look the same, and the density is somewhat different. This may not be conclusive evidence of something nuclear; but arguing that it's not nuclear is perhaps like seeing an airplane flying in the early 1900's and trying to explain it by way of moving towers you can't see that are holding it up, or cables and pulleys.


    Mosier-Boss et al. are not doing something hugely strange in using the CR-39 in this way; this is a common tool used in the nuclear field.


    From my point of view, my claim that LENR research only produces anecdotal evidence, is backed up you this experiment, which is supposed to be "good" evidence. But no piece of evidence like this can stand on its own, so that's why the supporters of cold fusion need "a mass of evidence".


    If you are not qualified to submit a rebuttal to the article, what's your basis for saying that this is not good evidence? Note also that they find spots on x-ray film, they use infrared imagery to provide evidence of little micro-explosions over time, and they carry out several other methods to cross-check their results.


    This particular set of studies seems pretty good to me. Does it bolster one's credibility or objectivity to disqualify credible evidence?


    I do not want to play "games". I would be sincerely interested in true evidence hinting that LENR is real. Still unable to find even one that is more than marginally interesting.


    Ok, it's not interesting to you. Are we to conclude from this fact something about the studies by Mosier-Boss et al. or something about you as an objective referee?

  • Quote

    they use infrared imagery to provide evidence of little micro-explosions over time


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    The white pixels are not micro explosions more than the other pixels. Look at the color bar at the bottom of the picture. White just means out of range, around 49 C°.

  • You are saying the same thing?! None of the pixels correspond to micro explosions, they only represent different temperatures displayed by false colors.

  • Quote

    I find it interesting that before spending $59m, Woodford and Co. must have had a look at Gary Wright's attack website (apparently your favourite website) and decided it was nonsense. I also wonder whether during their 2.5 year due diligence they came across some of your posts; breathless, abusive, CAPITALISED, and decided you were another disbeliever not to be taken seriously?


    Well, we don't know what due diligence Woodford did, do we? Because they won't explain it, even to their share holders. Remember that their share holders asked and were told it was "confidential?" Maybe, they simply trusted the Swedish scientists and we all know what that's worth, since Thomas Clarke's and Branzell's analyses of various dreadfully poor portions of their tests. As for Wright's site, it exposes Rossi's duplicity and lying with respect to his "distributors" -- distributors who never distributed anything in four years. It reveals the idiotic "manual" Rossi and his pals wrote for their "plant." And much more. But the site to read really is Krivit's. That site reveals Rossi's extensive criminal record. It reveals the bad science by Levi and Lewan. And much more.


    As to my being a disbeliever not to be taken seriously, Dick Smith saved a million dollars he was considering wasting with Defkalion because of my opinions which he requested by private email and also those of others he asked about it. And Elforsk's CEO seems to have referred my email to him to a capable associate within the company. We have heard nothing about LENR from Elforsk in some time, have we? Had Woodford and [lexicon]IH[/lexicon] sought my advice, I would have given it but they didn't look to any skeptic that I know of for counsel. I am quite confident that they and their share holders will regret it just as the share holders in Steorn and BLP are probably regretting giving those two companies their money. It will still take some time but it will happen. Rossi will go the way of Defkalion.

  • You are saying the same thing?! None of the pixels correspond to micro explosions, they only represent different temperatures displayed by false colors.


    The infrared image shows that there are temperature transients with t >= 49 C (out of range, as mentioned above). I said that "Perhaps they're micro-explosions." I used the word "perhaps," which expresses a tentative or contingent situation. To disprove a proposition expressed tentatively, you will assume the burden of proving that proposition is absolutely false. Can you prove that they're not micro-explosions? Figure 5 in this paper by the same group shows what the temperature transients look like. The curve is cut off at 49 C, due no doubt to the limitations of the camera. Or do you propose that the temperature only went up to 49 C?


    On p. 288 of this article by the same group, you can see the formation of blisters on the surface of a polarized palladium electrode. What causes that? A gradual, low-energy phenomenon?


    On pp. 4-7 of this issue of JCMNS, in an article by David Nagel, there are some SEM images of what look like craters from explosions. Are these surface phenomena unrelated to the ones seen by Mosier-Boss et al.? Are they created by a gradual, low-energy process? Are they experimental artifact?


    I.e., perhaps those temperature transients correspond to micro-explosions. Seems like a reasonable and measured statement.

  • Hey Colwyn, It's not necessary to say dumb things about my communications with Elforsk's CEO, Magnus Oloffson. You can read the full text of it here:


    http://aboutpapp.weebly.com/elforsk-email.html


    Remember, this was not long after the experiment and before Thomas Clarke's elegant analysis of the alumina issue and Branzell's appraisal of the input power measurements.


    I didn't save the reply but it was directly from his email address and basically said thanks and he would look into it. The email was copied to a member of his staff.

  • Eric, you insist:

    Quote

    The infrared image shows that there are temperature transients with t >= 49 C (out of range, as mentioned above). I said that "Perhaps they're micro-explosions." I used the word "perhaps," which expresses a tentative or contingent situation. To disprove a proposition expressed tentatively, you will assume the burden of proving that proposition is absolutely false. Can you prove that they're not micro-explosions?


    As soon as the temperature corresponding to a pixel has a temperature exceeding 49 C°, is there any reason at all to assume that it is 2000 C° rather than 50 C° or thereabout?


    I admit that they look temptingly like sparkles. They do this for two reasons, they are white and they are short lived. We can agree that the whiteness is due to false color. Their on-off behavior is just noise, for short moments the signal from the detector exceeds the upper limit of the temperature-to-color lookup table and then it falls back below it again and the pixel turns red again.


    You can see this on the cross section diagrams. (Unless you believe that the white pixels fall outside the diagram of course.)

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