Mats Lewan's Test Report

IH Fnaboy I havent read what Ascoli65 have calculated, but you are in risk mixing two different things in your thinking. What comes to fitting stock price history on trying to predict future, does not work since opposite to early days of stock exchanges, number of variables has grown, sudden one time interference factors (9/11, wars sub prime crisis etc) simply cannot be predicted from history. Also robot traders (operating at ms speeds) are something that you cannot predict from history because they exaggerates even small interferences because of snowball effect caused by speed competition).

Curve fitting in physical processes instead is more predictable and is daily routine in process industry. You may do black box testing on unknown process (cause change on input and measure response curve on output). There can be multiple different serial time constants inside black box, which makes exact calculations more difficult.

But for this you don't need even that. It is enough to calculate how much mass at max. you could hide inside E-Cat and calculate its thermal capacity supposing it gets heated say 1000C. That is what Paradimonia above explains. Boiling water takes lot of energy compared to temp increase of same amount of metal mass. Air gap is just parameter to fit to make correct boiling speed, it has nothing to do with capacity.

I checked my earlier estimations:
- Heat capacity of steel is 0.466 J/g/K (=kJ/kg/K) half compared to aluminum but fits in smaller volume Source Wikipedia
- Heat of waporization of water is 2257 kj/kg (see Wikipedia)

So in other words, to boil each 1 l of water you need to add 4.8kg of steel losing 1000K of heat (so steel lump temp must be > 1100 to keep 1 l water boiling totally. End temp must be >100C )

That is only a safe calculation, in practise it has to overcome temp leaks and heating first incoming water ( 4.1813 kJ/kg/K) depending on test arrangements (which I have not read).

These calculations does not take account possible pressure tweaking (=suck vacuum and water boils even in room temp). But as I said in playground these old tests and sayings are not interesting because of so big other reasons in play.

Quote from Argon

But as I said in playground these old tests and sayings are not interesting because of so big other reasons in play.

No doubt, bigger developments in play now. Thanks for your analysis. The Oct. 6, 2011 test always intrigued me though, and still does to this day. In many ways, this is the test that kicked off the Rossi mania. I think that is why it still gets attention.

IH Fanboy,
For a large amount of water, the amount of iron (or whatever) would have to be very substantial to keep water boiling for three hours.
The geometry with the fins is complex. Not so much the fins themselves, but for how the heat gets sent to the base of the fins.
It could be modeled, but with necessarily lots of guesses in the parameters.

Aside from trickery, an air gap would insulate a reactor from being held close to the temperature of the water or steam, and possibly allow better control of the heater (and reactor) itself. The gap could allow precise heater temperatures to be achieved without the lower temperature water, water flow, and bubbles constantly and possibly chaotically changing the heater temperature, making control very complicated. By forcing radiant heat to jump a gap, the temperature of the core is limited to the capacity for radiant power, no matter what else is going on around the core assembly. (At least until the sleeve begins to approach the core temperature). This leaves the water flow to control the water-steam temperature, which is simpler.

A hunch is that without any reaction, the air-gapped incandescent heater would be slower than direct conduction per L of water, so the size of it would have to be greatly increased compared heating the same volume of water with a simple immersed coil heater in the same period of time.
Indeed, a good dummy for this test would have been an immersed coil heater powered the same way, and using the same amount of water.

@Paradigmnoia

I agree on the good reasons to insulate the core, not for trickery but to reach a desired temperature.

As for specific heat per volume:

Steel density 7.8 kg/l
Steel specific heat 0.47 kJ/kg °C
Water density 1 kg/l
Water specific heat 4.2 kJ/kg °C

Heat capacity of 1 liter = 1 dm^3 of water : 4.2 kJ/°C
Heat capacity of same volume of steel: 0.47×7.8 = 3.7 kJ/°C

Not that far.

8 dm^3 of steel are roughly 60kg (out of the 98kg). With an insulated sleeve 60kg of steel heat up say to 1000°C=1300K with 30MJ.
Then there are infinite combinations of surface , emissivity, thermal conductivities from core to sleeve and exchanger that can delay this 30 MJ heat release to match the 3 hours self-sustaining.

Quote from andrea.s

Steel density 7.8 kg/l
Steel specific heat 0.47 kJ/kg °C
Water density 1 kg/l
Water specific heat 4.2 kJ/kg °C

With you.

Quote from andrea.s

Heat capacity of 1 liter = 1 dm^3 of water : 4.2 kJ/°C
Heat capacity of same volume of steel: 0.47×7.8 = 3.7 kJ/°C

Not that far.

Yes, those two values are pretty close, and representative of 1 liter of water.

Quote from andrea.s

8 dm^3 of steel are roughly 60kg (out of the 98kg). With an insulated sleeve 60kg of steel heat up say to 1000°C=1300K with 30MJ.
Then there are infinite combinations of surface , emissivity, thermal conductivities from core to sleeve and exchanger that can delay this 30 MJ heat release to match the 3 hours self-sustaining.

Wait a second. You base 8 dm^3 of steel from what?

I just looked quickly at molar specific heats, which for metals pretty much hang around 24-28 J/mol K, where water is 75.2 J/ mol K.
From what Jed is quoted as saying, I'm guessing he looked at mass specific heat, where iron is ~0.45 J/ g K and water 4.2 J/ g K.

I hadn't bothered to do the conversion to a L volume with iron, although clearly I should have. I am surprised they are so close.

I don't think the hot core model looks very likely even though it seems that the core (under certain assumptions) could be charged with a large amount of energy (30MJ). I would expect the heat transfer across the air gap to be highly dependent on the delta temperature between the water (100C) and the hot core, and the core must sureley decrease its temperature over time when it delivers heat. I would then expect to see the delta T of the secondary circuit to become significantly smaller at the end of the SSM, but that does not seem to be the case.

@ IH Fanboy, you wrote (*):

- "I thank you for your honest answer."

You welcome. Anyway, I have no reason to answer otherwise.

- "If you are familiar with currency trading, you might be aware of the neural networks ... The success rate is dismal. Curve-fitting in almost all cases, doesn't work."

I'm not familiar with, but I can imagine that it is not so easy to predict the future in the financial world. Curve-fitting the hot-cat behavior is much easier.

- "I have my reservations about your model because of the assumptions and the method used to build it."

As I already told you, the purpose of the model was just getting an idea of how the things could have gone. You can build thousands of different models, with different assumptions and methods. It depends from what you are looking for. If you want a quick answer on the real COP obtained in the October 6 test, the best way is the "corrected Lewan calculation" that I mentioned before: input 31 MJ, output 25.5 MJ, COP<1.

If you want also to have an idea about where a part of the 31 MJ introduced in the first part of the test have been stored in order to keep the water at the boiling point for 3.5 more hours, you can give a look at the upper right diagram in the second jpeg shown on the initial page of this thread. As you can see, the inner iron mass, 40 kg out of a total weight of 98 kg, can store 11 MJ (gray line), when it reaches the maximum average temperature of 560 °C (see the first jpeg). This stored energy (more than 1/3 of the total input energy) is about equivalent to the energy accumulated in the water inside the pool (green line), and is sufficient to compensate the energy brought away by the exiting fluid (red line) up to the end of the so called SSM period, and even beyond.

-The above diagram answers also to the first Rothwell's point: "I believe I based that assertion on the specific heat of iron, which is one-tenth that of water. Even if the inside of the Rossi device were heated to incandescence, it could not hold much heat compared to the water surrounding it."

A iron mass of 40 kg (=2x the water mass) at T=560°C (=5x the water delta T) holds the same heat quantity of the surrounding water, contrary to what Rothwell claimed.

- About the second Rothwell's point: "When a blacksmith takes a heavy piece of iron, heats it to incandescence, and then quenches it in water, very little water boils away. The metal instantly cools."

I have no direct experience in this field, but anyway I could say:
- first, I doubt that a blacksmith can easily handle a massive piece of iron of 40 kg;
- second, this iron mass is hypothesized to be inside the inner box made by steel, and hence his surface is not directly in contact with the cooling water;
- third, only a small part of the 26 kg of water pumped inside the fat-can could be evaporated, being the volume of the internal pool at least 20 liters.

(*) Mats Lewan's Test Report

It seems to me that the Steorn Hepaheat has a similar arrangement as we are discussing.

Quote from IH Fanboy

Wait a second. You base 8 dm^3 of steel from what?

Just an example compatibile with 30MJ stored at a emperature in the range of 1000 deg, and 20×20×20 cm fits well in the 30×30×30 cm of the object described by Lewan as a "heat exchanger". But it is just a starting point for a plausibile model. Ascoli's numbers are more deeply thought since he fits both transients and steady state.

Quote from andrea.s

Just an example compatibile with 30MJ stored at a emperature in the range of 1000 deg, and 20×20×20 cm fits well in the 30×30×30 cm of the object described by Lewan as a "heat exchanger". But it is just a starting point for a plausibile model. Ascoli's numbers are more deeply thought since he fits both transients and steady state.

I don't see 8 dm^3 of metal in that fat cat. 8 dm^3 is equivalent of 8000 cm^3. It is equivalent of having four 2-liter bottles of solid steel. All put neatly within an air-gap sleeve. Just not seeing it.

IH Fanboy

20cm×20cmx20cm are 8000 cc = 8 dm^3 (8 liters). If solid steel, they weigh 60kg.

Why is it so weird if Mats' report describes "an object measuring about 30 x 30 x 30 centimeters" and "a layer of about 5 centimeters of shielding" and the fatcat void of water weighed 98 kg ?

Anyway I did not put up a spreadsheet model, I was just providing ballpark figures roughly compatibile with heat storage and release over several hours. No need to refine the analysis unless there are founded objections to feasibility of Ascoli65' s model. I don't think Jed's critique is.

Touche. Had a bit of brain fart there. But yes, 8 liters of solid steel, with an air-gap sleeve. I guess anything is possible.

Quote from Paradigmnoia

It seems to me that the Steorn Hepaheat has a similar arrangement as we are discussing.

What ever happened to Hepaheat, I don't see anything current out there. Every single thing ever connected to Steorn and Shaun McCarthy has turned out to be a hoax at this point. It blows my mind that he has not been arrested for fraud at this point over the 20+ millions he has stolen from investors. Amazing.

Quote from stephenrenzz

It blows my mind that he has not been arrested for fraud at this point over the 20+ millions he has stolen from investors. Amazing.

Because that is not how angel/VC investing works. While I agree that everything Steorn-related seems ephemeral, my spidey-sense tells me that it isn't over yet.

Quote from IH Fanboy

Quote from stephenrenzz: “It blows my mind that he has not been arrested for fraud at this point over the 20+ millions he has stolen from investors. Amazing. ”

Because that is not how angel/VC investing works. While I agree that everything…

I know things can stretch on a bit in VC especially something so fringe, but I think the boy cried wolf just a few too many times for Steorn. The orbo livestream they have going on now is beyond laughable for so many reasons. They are demonstrating the orbo packs using an odd little custom motor that most likely would run for a year on the size pack they have hooked up to it, and the other pack is being demonstrated by shorting it with a relay at 6hz. Neither test shows absolutely anything at all...I feel they must just be buying time or flat out fraud. Both units that went to Frank at E-Scat World were a complete bust...crickets when asked about the rows and rows of Orbos Shaun showed off in the Irish Times video that he claimed were in FINAL testing phase and being packaged...we know the Ophones turn out to be a bust. At this point they have proven nothing and produced nothing that works. I think this one goes well beyond what would normally be allowed in a VC situation involving tens of millions of investors dollars. The fact that they actually started selling products and had to halt is very serious from a VC perspective as well....moving forward through production to sales is serious.

Quote from stephenrenzz

They are demonstrating the orbo packs using an odd little custom motor that most likely would run for a year on the size pack they have hooked up to it, and the other pack is being demonstrated by shorting it with a relay at 6hz. Neither test shows absolutely anything at all...

Agreed. The live stream shows nothing of substance--nothing can be verified or refuted that way. I'm pretty sure Steorn knows that.

Quote from stephenrenzz

I feel they must just be buying time or flat out fraud. Both units that went to Frank at E-Scat World were a complete bust...

Well, not a complete bust, but certainly far below what was being claimed. It does bolster the honesty/rep of the ECW community though, given that their intention is to cut through the fluff and just prove whether it works or not. Unfortunately, no final resolution yet.

Quote from stephenrenzz

I think this one goes well beyond what would normally be allowed in a VC situation involving tens of millions of investors dollars. The fact that they actually started selling products and had to halt is very serious from a VC perspective as well....moving forward through production to sales is serious.

I've thought they would fold several times in the past, and whataya know, they persist. At this point, the investors either know something we don't know, or they are extremely patient (or stupid) people.

Quote from IH Fanboy

Agreed. The live stream shows nothing of substance--nothing can be verified or refuted that way. I'm pretty sure Steorn knows that.

Well, not a complete bust, but certainly far below what was being claimed. It does bolster the honesty/rep of the ECW community though, given that their intention is to cut through the fluff and just prove whether it works or not. Unfortunately, no final resolution yet.

I've thought they would fold several times in the past, and whataya know, they persist. At this point, the investors either know something we don't know, or they are extremely patient (or stupid) people.

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Agree on pretty much everything you say here. The only thing I see a little different as I followed the testing of both of Franks devices daily is that the orbo cells really did not ever work. The only way Frank was able to get any interesting or anomalous readings was by inputting power. The cells never showed evidence of self-recharge without intervention. The title of the newest Orbo post on E-Scat World is VERY misleading because of this. I have been following Steorn since day one...and admittedly was a believer years ago...but I just can't see any honesty from Steorn anymore. I guess another 10 years or so will tell if history is any indicator of their investors patience.

Quote from stephenrenzz

The only way Frank was able to get any interesting or anomalous readings was by inputting power. The cells never showed evidence of self-recharge without intervention.

I'd take issue with that, although the effects observed are magnitudes lower than what was claimed by Steorn. The second (non-Ocube) unit sent to Frank has shown confusing behavior.

Quote from IH Fanboy

I'd take issue with that, although the effects observed are magnitudes lower than what was claimed by Steorn. The second (non-Ocube) unit sent to Frank has shown confusing behavior.

To me they appeared to be what you would see with a malfunctioning or poor quality DC/DC regulator or converter. I have seen similar anomalous readings from poorly designed ubs charging circuits. I guess we will see.