Can Conspiracy Beliefs Be Beneficial? Longitudinal Linkages Between Conspiracy Beliefs, Anxiety, Uncertainty Aversion, and Existential Threat
Research suggests that conspiracy beliefs are adopted because they promise to reduce anxiety, uncertainty, and threat. However, little research has investigated whether conspiracy beliefs actually fulfill these promises. We conducted two longitudinal studies (NStudy 1 = 405, NStudy 2 = 1,012) to examine how conspiracy beliefs result from, and in turn influence, anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat. Random intercept cross-lagged panel analyses indicate that people who were, on average, more anxious, uncertainty averse, and existentially threatened held stronger conspiracy beliefs. Increases in conspiracy beliefs were either unrelated to changes in anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat (Study 2), or even predicted increases in these variables (Study 1). In both studies, increases in conspiracy beliefs predicted subsequent increases in conspiracy beliefs, suggesting a self-reinforcing circle. We conclude that conspiracy beliefs likely do not have beneficial consequences, but may even reinforce the negative experience of anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat.
We did not find within-person consequences of coronavirus-related conspiracy beliefs in Study 2. This may be due not only to long time intervals, but also to opposing effects that cancel each other out: Most coronavirus conspiracy beliefs contain some element that downplays the dangers of the virus, which might relieve distress. Yet, most of them also describe threatening scenarios of malevolent, secret forces, which should increase distress.
We revealed an additional way in which conspiracy beliefs may be harmful for the individual: Both studies found that increases in conspiracy beliefs predicted even further increases in conspiracy beliefs at the next measurement wave. This effect emerged for both short- and long-term distances, and indicates that conspiracy beliefs are part of a self-reinforcing cycle that results in more and more extreme attitudes (Goertzel, 1994; Swami et al., 2010; Wood et al., 2012).
Previous research concluded that conspiracy beliefs are attractive for people who are anxious, uncertainty averse, and existentially threatened. However, no prior research examined whether conspiracy beliefs actually help deal with uncertainty and reduce anxiety and perceived threat. We conducted two studies to explore the longitudinal relationships between conspiracy beliefs, uncertainty aversion, anxiety, and existential threat. Findings suggest that conspiracy beliefs are likely not beneficial for the individual, at least with regard to the variables we studied: Within-person increases in conspiracy beliefs were either unrelated to within-person changes in uncertainty aversion, anxiety, and existential threat (Study 2; four-month intervals) or even predicted subsequent increases in uncertainty aversion, anxiety, and existential threat (Study 1; two-week intervals). Our results further suggest that increases in conspiracy beliefs predict even further increases in conspiracy beliefs at the next measurement (both studies). This demonstrates that conspiracy beliefs are part of a self-reinforcing circle. These findings did not extend to coronavirus conspiracy beliefs: The specific content of conspiracy beliefs seems to be crucial for their consequences. Future longitudinal research on the potential harmful effects of conspiracy beliefs for their adherents is required.
These pinko academics with psychology papers are clearly in a conspiracy out to discredit us down-to-earth common-sense people who KNOW there are conspiracies.
