The Playground

    Here is a review of the VE against serious omicron disease of 3 doses vaccine over time.


    That, for most of us, and for society as a whole, is the most important thing, and also one of the hardest to find good data on.


    Anyone here still interested in the science might want to read this because of the fascinating (and well explained) way that confounders can make the statistics misleading. Whether you like the overall conclusion here or no, the ways that the figures shown in various studies are influenced (a lot) by effects due to when different groups of people are given jabs is well worth reading.


    How durable is immune protection vs. severe Omicron-based infections after 3rd shot mRNA boosters?
    Introduction In winter and spring 2021, hope was high that mRNA vaccines were going to be able to bring herd immunity and end the pandemic if enough were…
    www.covid-datascience.com

    Our big pharma marketing clown is back again....You can always find a short period in time where a specific group that took a specific drug does better than others.


    Pfizer studies always look at a very short period and never look at the first two weeks where hundreds are killed by immune suppression from the shot...


    Reality: CH/Israel: Hospital real rate:: vaxx..unvaxx CH : 6::1, Israel 10::1 For Israel this is the boostered rate...This also shows why Pfizer is crap. In CH with 70% Moderna boostered rate is bout 4::1


    This is real data and needs no tuning study.


    Please stay of Pfizer and boosters in general if you like to live some more years...

    For the Swiss excess mortality you can go to :: https://www.experimental.bfs.a…vative-methoden/momo.html


    I disentangled the spread sheet::

    For age >=65 this is 1900 excess deaths since 1.1.2022. But going up with each new Omicron wave and down after some time... Thereof about 500 potentially CoV-19 related. But nobody in ICU due to CoV-19... OR simply said the data is messy .. in comparison to UK.

    Putting lipstick on a pig, it doesn't stop infection or transmission but a great sales pitch!


    Increasing SARS-CoV2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths among the vaccinated elderly populations during the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant surge in UK


    Increasing SARS-CoV2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths among the vaccinated elderly populations during the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant surge in UK
    BACKGROUND There were increased SARS-CoV2 hospitalizations and deaths noted during Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant surge in UK despite decreased cases, and the…
    www.medrxiv.org


    ABSTRACT

    BACKGROUND There were increased SARS-CoV2 hospitalizations and deaths noted during Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant surge in UK despite decreased cases, and the reasons are unclear.


    METHODS In this observational study, we analyzed reported SARS-CoV2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. We also analyzed variables that can affect the outcomes. The vaccine effectiveness among those ≥18 years of age (August 16, 2021 to March 27, 2022) was analyzed.


    RESULTS Of the total cases (n= 22,072,550), hospitalizations (n=848,911) and deaths (n=175,070) due to COVID-19 in UK; 51.3% of cases (n=11,315,793), 28.8% of hospitalizations (n=244,708) and 16.4% of deaths (n=28,659) occurred during Omicron variant surge. When comparing the period of February 28-May 1, 2022 with the prior 12-weeks, we observed a significant increase in the case fatality rate (0.19% vs 0.41%; RR 2.11 [2.06-2.16], p<0.001) and odds of hospitalization (1.58% vs 3.72%; RR 2.36[2.34-2.38]; p<0.001). During the same period a significant increase in cases (23.7% vs 40.3%; RR1.70 [1.70-1.71]; p<0.001) among ≥50 years of age and hospitalizations (39.3% vs 50.3%;RR1.28 [1.27-1.30]; p<0.001) and deaths (67.89% vs 80.07%;RR1.18 [1.16-1.20]; p<0.001) among ≥75 years of age was observed. The vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the third dose was in negative since December 20, 2021, with a significantly increased proportion of SARS-CoV2 cases hospitalizations and deaths among the vaccinated; and a decreased proportion of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among the unvaccinated. The pre-existing conditions were present in 95.6% of all COVID-19 deaths, various ethnic, deprivation score and vaccination rate disparities noted that can adversely affect hospitalization and deaths among compared groups.


    CONCLUSIONS There is no discernable vaccine effectiveness among ≥18 years of age, vaccinated third dose population since the beginning of the Omicron variant surge. Pre-existing conditions, ethnicity, deprivation score, and vaccination rate disparities data need to be adjusted for evaluating VE for hospitalizations and deaths. The increased cases with significantly increased hospitalizations and deaths among the elderly population during the Omicron variant surge underscores the need to prevent infections in the elderly irrespective of vaccination status with uniform screening protocols and protective measures.

    Many friends and family have been getting COVID the last few weeks. All are vaxxed, and except for 1 neighbor, all have described it as a horrible experience. So while the vax may keep them out of hospital, they still get very sick. One of them down the street called the FLCCC for Ivermectin, and after 16 days sick, he was up and moving 24 hours after taking.


    Ironically, 2 of my best friends refused the jab, both old and cancer survivors, and neither has gotten sick.

    Quote from Fm1

    Putting lipstick on a pig, it doesn't stop infection or transmission but a great sales pitch!


    Increasing SARS-CoV2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths among the vaccinated elderly populations during the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant surge in UK

    I guess it depends who you are. Personally I reckon the chances of everyone catching COVID at some point are high, so I judge vaccine based on does it harm me more or less than catching COVID (for the 1st time). And I would do that for anyone else as well.


    For original and alpha COVID it had an added benefit in reducing community transmission (or transmission to close family, for example). That pretty well vanished with delta.


    Note that no government has yet thought it worth going for a "tweaked" vaccine just to reduce transmission of the current variant.


    Your second claim is completely unevidenced. I think I've already given the (rather obvious) reason why that paper shown only the different infection/case rate? Let me know if I'm wrong and need to read it more carefully?


    Otherwise, that paper I linked explains many of the other pitfalls that can lead even quite decent people to wrong conclusions when looking at individual study data. There is a reason that these types of studies give very conflicting results - and it is not because the scientists are corrupt or innumerate. Rather it is because getting true causal relationships from real world data is difficult.

    Quote from Shane D.

    Many friends and family have been getting COVID the last few weeks. All are vaxxed, and except for 1 neighbor, all have described it as a horrible experience. So while the vax may keep them out of hospital, they still get very sick. One of them down the street called the FLCCC for Ivermectin, and after 16 days sick, he was up and moving 24 hours after taking.


    Ironically, 2 of my best friends refused the jab, both old and cancer survivors, and neither has gotten sick.

    It is ironic: although I notice you do not say how many times said un-vaxxed old friends have previously caught COVID, nor how well they are isolated? If either factor applied it would reduce the irony.


    I think we have pretty good evidence that vax or no, Omicron COVID will infect pretty well everyone exposed to it?

    The highest probability now is that most of our UK population has been infected with Omicron. When I was vaccinated (twice) with Pfizer's mRNA jab I suffered no effects whatsoever. When I was exposed to Omicron by other members of my family on a visit to Cornwall I still suffered no symptoms despite a positive lateral flow test. I simply put all this down to my continuous intake of anti-virals which we outlined in Anti-Bat. A simple broad statement of the TRUTH!

    Your second sentence said it all. 99% recover from Covid. It's the 1% that sees a benefit. No conclusions of any of the studies identifies this fact. The vaccine narrative is a hoax. The vaccines have no effect on 99% of the world's population. It doesn't stop infection!!!!!!!!!! Period!!!!

    Quote from Dr Richard*

    The highest probability now is that most of our UK population has been infected with Omicron. When I was vaccinated (twice) with Pfizer's mRNA jab I suffered no effects whatsoever. When I was exposed to Omicron by other members of my family on a visit to Cornwall I still suffered no symptoms despite a positive lateral flow test. I simply put all this down to my continuous intake of anti-virals which we outlined in Anti-Bat. A simple broad statement of the TRUTH!


    Some of our students have had COVID (with symptoms and positive PCR test) but continuously negative lateral flow test!

    Quote from Fm1

    Your second sentence said it all. 99% recover from Covid. It's the 1% that sees a benefit. No conclusions of any of the studies identifies this fact. The vaccine narrative is a hoax. The vaccines have no effect on 99% of the world's population. It doesn't stop infection!!!!!!!!!! Period!!!!

    That is not true.


    As an individual who has never had COVID there are three risks I care about from COVID: death, serious disease, and long COVID.


    Death (for me) 1:200 before vaccination, 1:500 or better after

    Serious disease: 1:10 (?) before vaccination, 1:50 (?) after

    Long COVID: 1:10 (??) before vaccination, 1:50 (??) after


    Long covid in UK


    https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/0…%20phase%20of%20infection.


    In one sense, the results are reassuring: the majority of people infected with coronavirus (88% to 97%) don’t experience symptoms beyond the first 12 weeks, and some of those who do will start to feel better over time. But for the minority of people who do go on to experience long-term symptoms, the effects can be debilitating, and we should remember that the absolute numbers could be considerable: our most recent population-level estimates suggest that 643,000 people in private households in the UK could be experiencing activity-limiting long COVID symptoms.


    Obviously once you have run all these risks once, catching COVID, they reduce further 2nd time, vaccinated or no.


    Anyway, for me, the serious disease think and the long COVID thing are both a big deal. I don't want to get either. and 1:10 is a risk higher than I like. Like seelcting a blank or real bullet with equal probability and then playing Russian Roulette once.


    The vaccines have a significant effect on 10% of the world's population.


    But even if it was 1%, that is still worth it. Childhood vaccines (if we still had those diseases) similarly have no effect on 99% of children. But the 1% that would be seriously ill are helped, and that is enough for them to be a big deal personally quite independently have the population effect.


    THH

    Well I think you pulled those numbers out of thin air but aside from that, you worry about severe disease, but don't list your reasons why. Are you immunocompromised? Then by all means go for the boosters but if healthy it's a waste. Long COVID, like Covid severity is caused by a vitamin deficency. You become infected, it enters the lungs where the body now begins a bradykinin response weakening blood vessels allowing Covid to piggyback with your cholesterol infecting the Microbiome gut. This has a huge effect on B1, thiamine, B3, niacin, B12 and iron, depleting all while gut bacteria become infected. Covid is a vascular disease with respertory symptoms. Treat long COVID with weekly shots of high dose vitamin d, a broad vitamin B complex and iron. You still have a 20-30% chance of long COVID, vaccinated or not. This I hope will alleviate some of your concerns, but I doubt it.

    By the way if you do have long COVID, I've read where some doctors are treating it with doxycycline. Huge mistake! Doxy kills infected bacteria as well as unaffected bacteria. Recent studies report this

    Quote from Fm1

    Long COVID, like Covid severity is caused by a vitamin deficency. You become infected, it enters the lungs where the body now begins a bradykinin response weakening blood vessels allowing Covid to piggyback with your cholesterol infecting the Microbiome gut. This has a huge effect on B1, thiamine, B3, niacin, B12 and iron, depleting all while gut bacteria become infected. Covid is a vascular disease with respertory symptoms. Treat long COVID with weekly shots of high dose vitamin d, a broad vitamin B complex and iron. You still have a 20-30% chance of long COVID, vaccinated or not.

    We will not agree on this. You credit to Vit D many things for which there is zero evidence, and which are alas juts not likely. I am not biased against Vit D - just realistic when the RCT results come in - and I remember how the observational studies and vague theoretical mechanisms do not stack up.


    Similarly with this. Your statements here are unfounded speculation and suffer the "theory does not work" rule of biology.


    What I mean by that is that in the human body you can find mechanisms for almost anything - whether they actually cause problems depends on both how muhc effect is there, and is the (maybe bad result buffered by other processes.


    In the case of vitamins all disease depletes vitamin levels. That however does not mean that the bad consequences of disease are caused by vitamin levels. Whenever it has been tested that causal link has been found not to exist. (With a few exceptions - e.g. Vit D and rickets).


    THH

    Zero evidence for vitamin d? You are full of crap. Over 40 years of studies on the subject. 90% positive results meta analysis of all confirm the positive results. All cause mortality, Covid severity, shall I go on? You disregard the studies, its you Huxley, that fails to follow the science. But why am I surprised, you can't seem to grasp the science and evidence of cold fusion. I think you are a lost cause! To bad, I thought you were a smart guy

    Quote from Fm1

    Zero evidence for vitamin d? You are full of crap. Over 40 years of studies on the subject. 90% positive results meta analysis of all confirm the positive results

    Yes: but only meta-analysis of predominately observational trials. GIGO.


    We know not to trust those because when the most plausible benefits from observational evidence have been tested in RCTs they are found not to exist.


    Thus far all I have seen (other than rickets) is a small decrease in autoimmune disease. That is worth something, but not the grandiose claims made.


    Quality Control in Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses
    Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are being submitted to, and being published by biomedical journals with increasing frequency. In order to maintai…
    www.sciencedirect.com


    Evidence synthesis via the publication of systematic reviews, particularly when these contain meta-analytical combination of data, is now an established part of the repertoire of many scientific journals. The number of systematic reviews and meta-analyses has grown steadily over the last two decades (Fig. 1).1 Systematic reviews have significant benefits over conventional reviews in that all available data is presented, not just that chosen by the authors. However to ensure that this is the case, authors of systematic reviews must be sure to perform their review with rigorous attention to detail and report their methods to enable adequate scrutiny of their conclusions. In the reporting of the results from this type of research there is the potential for erroneous conclusions to be presented by the author or, drawn by the reader. If incorrect conclusions are used to guide clinical decision making this may lead to ineffectual or harmful treatment being administered. It should also be remembered that the results from any systematic review or meta-analysis are only as good as the source data upon which they are based. Without proper caution when combining studies potentially erroneous conclusions can be reached. This is a particular problem if the quality of the contributing studies is not considered or analysed.

    I understand why you look at it this way. Most of the studies you refer to used a base of 20 ng/mL. That is sufficient for rickets but studies over the last 10 years using 50 Ng/mL as a base for vitamin d sufficiency show a huge benefit in all autoimne disease as well as a huge effect on all mortality. You have fallen behind and base your replies on old studies that at this point are outdated. Are you afraid of change ? Time to throw those old texts book away, the future is leaving you behind.

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