The Playground

    Gentlemen, mRNA vaccines are specifically designed to trigger an immune response that develops antibodies. That immune response is essentially an inflammatory response that will cause tissue damage. It is an inevitable side effect of how these things work and shouldn't surprise anyone. Some people will die as a direct result of taking the vaccine. It is inevitable.


    Taking a vaccine is about trying to reduce total risk. You are reducing the risk of dying from a disease, but accept a certain risk of being damaged by the vaccine. What matters is that you reduce aggregate risk. Even though the vaccine has risks of its own, it is still worth taking if it reduces risk overall. In much the same way, seat belts reduce your risks of dying in a crash, but may impede your escape.


    The reasons the coronavirus vaccines are controversial:


    (1) Risk from COVID and risk from the vaccines will always be different for different people. For some people, the vaccine will carry a greater risk than the disease itself. To coerce people into taking it is immoral;


    (2) The vaccine was developed in a hurry and there isn't good understanding of its long term health impacts. What if we discover in five years time that it has caused cardiovascular damage?


    (3) The politics behind the whole corona virus issue is completely toxic. There is now a political divide between those of the right that are naturally sceptical of coerced medicine and those of the left, who tend to favour centralised control over personal freedom and want to force the vaccine on the people out of spite for daring to question their authority. Neither side is objective or rational.


    (4) Yyou have corporate interests that have invested a fortune in developing the vaccine and want the biggest return possible. They will use financial leverage on politicians to sell as much vaccine as they can. They will suppress any reports of health consequences. They will attempt to demonise any opposing voice. They will use their influence to coerce compulsory vaccination, against the wishes and best interests of many people.

    I don't think our stat czar is going to like this


    Believe in Science? Bad Big-Data Studies May Shake Your Faith

    No, women who eat cereal aren’t more likely to have male babies, and Bitcoin prices can’t be predicted from returns in the carboard-box industry.


    Believe in Science? Bad Big-Data Studies May Shake Your Faith
    No, women who eat cereal aren’t more likely to have male babies, and Bitcoin prices can’t be predicted from returns in the carboard-box industry.
    www.bloomberg.com


    Thus, silly relationships are published in good journals simply because the results are statistically significant.


    Students do better on a recall test if they study for the test after taking it (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology).

    Japanese-Americans are prone to heart attacks on the fourth day of the month (British Medical Journal).

    Bitcoin prices can be predicted from stock returns in the paperboard, containers and boxes industry (National Bureau of Economic Research).

    Elderly Chinese women can postpone their deaths until after the celebration of the Harvest Moon Festival (Journal of the American Medical Association).

    Women who eat breakfast cereal daily are more likely to have male babies (Proceedings of the Royal Society).

    People can use power poses to increase their dominance hormone testosterone and reduce their stress hormone cortisol (Psychological Science).

    Hurricanes are deadlier if they have female names (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences).

    Investors can obtain a 23% annual return in the market by basing their buy/sell decisions on the number of Google searches for the word “debt” (Scientific Reports).

    These now-discredited studies are the tip of a statistical iceberg that has come to be known as the replication crisis.


    A team led by John Ioannidis looked at attempts to replicate 34 highly respected medical studies and found that only 20 were confirmed. The Reproducibility Project attempted to replicate 97 studies published in leading psychology journals and confirmed only 35. The Experimental Economics Replication Project attempted to replicate 18 experimental studies reported in leading economics journals and confirmed only 11.

    Good list Caliban,


    I'd just make three minor qualifications:


    (2) Cuts both ways. the long-term risks from covid are equally not well understood, so you can balance these against possible not understood long term risks from vaccines - the short-term risks after 12 months + of whole population rollout are now well understood.


    (1) Not entirely immoral, for example childhood vaccines are worth some coercion because they reduce risk for all, even though when they work there is no risk for the unvaccinated...


    (4) We have these corporate interests but governments and regulators have had a uniquely strong incentive to do whatever is most effective in stopping COVID as well as paying the minimum. So, for example, that argument can't simply be used to claim that wonderful repurposed antivirals are being suppressed, or having not enough large-scale trials. The level of regulatory captures is undoubtedly different in different countries, so you can get some idea of what is real from the variation in what countries do.


    Governments now seem to me to be making slightly weird decisions - for example not investing much in newer vaccines and continuing with 4th (5th?) boosters) from vaccines designed for original COVID, a long way away from current COVID strains. Surely we should be pushing harder now for newer vaccines, against the possibility that a new and more serious COVID strain develops.

    There are new worrying reports on quite strongly increasing numbers of hepatitis in young children around the globe, majority reported from UK, but more and more from other countries as well. None of the kids had been exposed to the wellknown hepatitis viruses A,B,C,D,E it seems, but analysis did show presence of adenoviruses. All cases had one thing in common: all kids had Covid-19, and none got a vaccination... so some deeper investigation required on the accurate biological mechanism.


    Could Mysterious Hepatitis Cases Be Triggered By COVID-19? - Health Policy Watch
    More than 100 mysterious cases of hepatitis in children under the age of 10 around the world are raising a red flag among the medical community, with some
    healthpolicy-watch.news

    Quote from zorud

    There are new worrying reports on quite strongly increasing numbers of hepatitis in young children around the globe, majority reported from UK, but more and more from other countries as well. None of the kids had been exposed to the wellknown hepatitis viruses A,B,C,D,E it seems, but analysis did show presence of adenoviruses. All cases had one thing in common: all kids had Covid-19, and none got a vaccination... so some deeper investigation required on the accurate biological mechanism.


    https://healthpolicy-watch.news/mysterious-hepatitis/

    Read the paper Sunspots and rainfall published around 1900. I think you might find it interesting in regards to your post


    https://www.jstor.org/stable/1629189?seq=1


    Investigation of Acute Non-Viral Hepatitis of Unknown Etiology Potentially Associated with an Alkaline Water Product

    Investigation of Acute Non-Viral Hepatitis of Unknown Etiology Potentially Associated with an Alkaline Water Product | CDC

    Thanks, although I can hardly find the dots linking Covid-19 and that old story (except the result....), so ot sure what you want to tell me.

    Quote from Calliban

    Gentlemen, mRNA vaccines are specifically designed to trigger an immune response that develops antibodies. That immune response is essentially an inflammatory response that will cause tissue damage.

    All vaccines do that. There is no reason to think that an mRNA vaccine will cause more tissue damage than any other. On the contrary, billions of doses of mRNA vaccines have been given, and they have produced less damage, fewer side effects, and fewer deaths than any other type of vaccine in history. They are far safer. Your "information" to the contrary is a mixture of bullshit, ignorance, anti-vaxxer Death Cult Lunacy, and propaganda from Russia intended to stir up trouble and kill people.

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    Governments now seem to me to be making slightly weird decisions - for example not investing much in newer vaccines and continuing with 4th (5th?) boosters) from vaccines designed for original COVID, a long way away from current COVID strains. Surely we should be pushing harder now for newer vaccines, against the possibility that a new and more serious COVID strain develops.

    Months ago, I read that CDC experts and pharma company experts ran simulations and decided not to reformulate the vaccines. They concluded that continuing with the same formula would prevent more sickness worldwide than reformulating. The pharma companies have developed newer formulas. They have tweaked the RNA. I think they said that to begin manufacturing the improved vaccines, they would have to interrupt production, close down the factories for a while, and then restart and test the output vaccines carefully for some weeks. It was better to produce millions of doses and distribute them worldwide quickly, even though they are not as effective at preventing disease. They still effectively prevent hospitalization and death.


    That was the situation last year. Maybe it has changed now?


    The situation resembles some weapons production during WWII. The UK and the US developed jet aircraft during the war, but they did not start production because they already had propellor fighter aircraft production lines putting out tremendous numbers of airplanes. To make jet aircraft, they would have to interrupt production at some factory. By the time the restarted, the war would probably be over. It was better to have thousands of obsolescent propellor fighter airplanes than a few hundred jet aircraft. The Germans went ahead and manufactured Messerschmitt Me 262 jet fighter aircraft. These were effective, but they could not make many of them. The UK and the UK developed jet aircraft prototypes but they did not manufacture them until after the war. (Except that a small number of British Gloster Meteor jet aircraft were used in combat.)

    Quote from JedRothwell

    All vaccines do that. There is no reason to think that an mRNA vaccine will cause more tissue damage than any other. On the contrary, billions of doses of mRNA vaccines have been given, and they have produced less damage, fewer side effects, and fewer deaths than any other type of vaccine in history. They are far safer. Your "information" to the contrary is a mixture of bullshit, ignorance, anti-vaxxer Death Cult Lunacy, and propaganda from Russia intended to stir up trouble and kill people.

    Thats rather a strong statement, given that I haven't presented any hard data or drawn any specific conclusions. I am not prepared to draw any hard conclusions, precisely because I have not carried out a balanced and thorough investigation. I have seen isolated reports that seem to provide conflicting information. But I know enough at a qualitative level to at least list the concerns, even if I am not prepared to reach firm conclusions. And I can see what is going on politically.


    Most big decisions in life come down to choosing a solution that achieves the best balance between various benefits and risks and costs. To get the best solution, you need to approach the problem by honestly weighing all factors. That is the mature way of approaching decisions, not simply looking to validate a preformed conclusion that was based on some deep seated emotional bias. Your post here, like too many others you have made on this board, tell me that is exactly what you do. You are not interested in honest research, you just want to push personal biases. It is exactly because of this sort of behaviour that society ends up being driven in disastrous directions, whether it be in health policy, energy policy, immigration policy, foreign policy, whatever. Idealists always end up ruining the world.

    Quote from Fm1

    I don't think the current hepatitis scare has anything to do with Covid. It's the result of solar particles causing acid rain.

    I see where you are coming from...you don't want to see Covid as a reason, but I would such a statement leave on the experts out there, and not on the experts here on this board. Let's see, I would wonder, if the "acid water story" would have been overseen as a potential reason...so let's wait and see what else might be discovered.


    Added from a more recent report:


    "Health chiefs believe the illness may be triggered by an adenovirus, which usually causes common colds.

    Experts say lockdowns may have weakened the immunity of children and left them more susceptible to the virus, or it may be a mutated version.

    Investigations are ongoing but officials have yet to rule out a new Covid variant being to blame.

    Another theory is that children may have been battling the adenovirus at the same time as Covid.

    UK health officials have ruled out the Covid vaccine as a possible cause, with none of the ill British children having been vaccinated because of their young age."

    None of the cases in the US were jabbed either.


    Now Japan and Canada probe mystery hepatitis in children
    A Japanese patient aged 16 or younger was hospitalised with a mystery liver disease on April 21, the country's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare said on…
    www.dailymail.co.uk

    Quote from JedRothwell

    Months ago, I read that CDC experts and pharma company experts ran simulations and decided not to reformulate the vaccines. They concluded that continuing with the same formula would prevent more sickness worldwide than reformulating. The pharma companies have developed newer formulas. They have tweaked the RNA. I think they said that to begin manufacturing the improved vaccines, they would have to interrupt production, close down the factories for a while, and then restart and test the output vaccines carefully for some weeks. It was better to produce millions of doses and distribute them worldwide quickly, even though they are not as effective at preventing disease. They still effectively prevent hospitalization and death.


    That was the situation last year. Maybe it has changed now?


    The situation resembles some weapons production during WWII. The UK and the US developed jet aircraft during the war, but they did not start production because they already had propellor fighter aircraft production lines putting out tremendous numbers of airplanes. To make jet aircraft, they would have to interrupt production at some factory. By the time the restarted, the war would probably be over. It was better to have thousands of obsolescent propellor fighter airplanes than a few hundred jet aircraft. The Germans went ahead and manufactured Messerschmitt Me 262 jet fighter aircraft. These were effective, but they could not make many of them. The UK and the UK developed jet aircraft prototypes but they did not manufacture them until after the war. (Except that a small number of British Gloster Meteor jet aircraft were used in combat.)

    The point is that it costs an enormous amount of money to develop a new medication. Corporate bodies are primarily interested in shareholder value. They will not commit resources to a product that is unlikely to achieve sufficient distribution to generate good financial returns, especially for a disease with high mutation rate, with newer COVID strains being less lethal. Big decisions always have to be about achieving a balance of risks and costs, and those risks are financial as well as personal.

    Quote

    There is no reason to think that an mRNA vaccine will cause more tissue damage than any other.


    Normal vaccines don't produce antibodies inside of tissues. At worst they capture them on adjuvant particles, which are already recognized as a source of problem at the case when they get adsorbed to a healthy tissue (like the trivalent aluminium ions which form particularly strong bond to trivalent phospholipids in brain).


    So what we can expect, if we would bind antibodies to healthy tissues even more?

    Quote from zorud

    There are new worrying reports on quite strongly increasing numbers of hepatitis in young children around the globe, majority reported from UK, but more and more from other countries as well.

    OK: So far we had world wide 3 severe cases that needed kidney transplantation. We also know that 99% of all kids had CoV-19. Just looking at confirmed tests tells nothing about any correlation.

    But worst CoV-19 is here since 2.5 years and nothing has been seen for more than 2 years, what excludes any CoV-19 correlation.

    But kids had 100x more hospital visits/deaths due RSV and other respirators virus. So this looks more like a lockdown / mask induced immune weakening effect.

    Quote from zorud

    There are new worrying reports on quite strongly increasing numbers of hepatitis in young children around the globe, majority reported from UK, but more and more from other countries as well. None of the kids had been exposed to the wellknown hepatitis viruses A,B,C,D,E it seems, but analysis did show presence of adenoviruses. All cases had one thing in common: all kids had Covid-19, and none got a vaccination... so some deeper investigation required on the accurate biological mechanism.


    https://healthpolicy-watch.news/mysterious-hepatitis/

    You can never be sure, but in the UK we think the most likely culprit is an adenovirus - either greater problems as a result of the lack of exposure during the lockdown - or possibly a variant.


    Not sure about the significance of all having had covid-19 (if it is true) - since it went through schools and pretty well all had it. The antivaxxers muts be annoyed this mystery related to young children, they would otherwise no doubt blame it on covid vaccines...


    Childhood hepatitis: What's the latest theory?
    It looks likely that a common virus which usually causes colds, vomiting and diarrhoea has a role to play.
    www.bbc.co.uk


    There are lots of different types of adenovirus. One particular adenovirus called F41 was detected in around three-quarters of the children with confirmed hepatitis who were tested.

    Health officials believe it's likely to be making a comeback after virtually disappearing during the first year of the pandemic due to reduced social mixing.

    Its impact on young children, who did not come into contact with any of the normal viruses during lockdown when they were infants, could be behind the current surge.

    Lab data from the NHS shows that common viruses are now circulating in children, particularly the under-fives, at a higher level than in previous years.


    and


    UKHSA says it is looking at previous Covid infections in the children affected as well as the possible emergence of a new variant of adenovirus.

    It says it is continuing to investigate a wide range of other infections and causes.

    Studies suggest small numbers of babies and children infected with Covid have needed treatment for hepatitis in other countries such as the US as well as Brazil and also India. In most of those cases, the patients recovered quickly and were discharged in days.

    Quote from Calliban

    I am not prepared to draw any hard conclusions, precisely because I have not carried out a balanced and thorough investigation.

    Just a point of logic.


    In these matters with complex data and may possible mechanisms, even having done the most thorough possible balanced investigation, it may still be impossible to draw hard conclusions.


    in fact that is sort of the case for most hot science topics.

    Quote from Calliban

    Thats rather a strong statement, given that I haven't presented any hard data or drawn any specific conclusions. I am not prepared to draw any hard conclusions, precisely because I have not carried out a balanced and thorough investigation.

    You don't have to. Every public health agency, every major hospital, and every doctor on God's Green Earth has carried out investigations of the mRNA vaccines. Billions of vaccines have been given, and more patient data has been collected on the vaccination outcomes than all other medical data in history, combined. This data has been analyzed with big data computers and supercomputers with far more processing power than anything that existed ten years ago. The vaccine RNA has been modeled and tested in far greater detail, with better technology than existed ten years ago. In short, no technology has ever been developed, deployed or monitored with as much knowledge and as much surveillance and data collection as this. We have millions of times more data on the performance of these vaccines than we had for things like the polio or smallpox vaccines. We can analyze its performance down to the level of individual molecules. We have the complete human genome, which is a depth of knowledge people could not have dreamed of decades ago. This is the epitome 21st century technology. It would have been science fiction in 1990, and it would have been unimaginable in 1960. Based on all of this, we know for sure that the mRNA vaccines are the safest, most effective and best medical intervention in human history. Also, by far the fastest ever developed, and the most carefully tested and monitored.


    You might doubt that, but just about every expert on earth disagrees with you. I am sure they are right and you are wrong, just as I am sure that people like Fleischmann and Bockris understood electrochemistry and calorimetry better the editors at the Scientific American and the anonymous idiots at Wikipedia.

    And at the extreme opposite of triumphant 21st century technology, we have the latest news from the Antivaxxer Death Cult Lunatics, which would be hilarious if it were not so disgusting:


    Anti-vaxxers are furious that the Toronto Zoo is protecting hits animals with vaccines


    Anti-vaxxers are furious that the Toronto Zoo is protecting its animals with vaccines
    The Toronto Zoo is taking fire from the anti-vaxxer community again after recently announcing that it had received 320 doses to inoculate 120 anima...
    www.blogto.com


    I kid you not. That's what it says.

    You might think the antivaxxers would like this as reducing availability of vaccine for use in humans?


    I guess that supposes rational thought, rather than what Freud called primary process thinking.

    Quote from JedRothwell

    You don't have to. Every public health agency, every major hospital, and every doctor on God's Green Earth has carried out investigations of the mRNA vaccines. Billions of vaccines have been given, and more patient data has been collected on the vaccination outcomes than all other medical data in history, combined. This data has been analyzed with big data computers and supercomputers with far more processing power than anything that existed ten years ago. The vaccine RNA has been modeled and tested in far greater detail, with better technology than existed ten years ago. In short, no technology has ever been developed, deployed or monitored with as much knowledge and as much surveillance and data collection as this. We have millions of times more data on the performance of these vaccines than we had for things like the polio or smallpox vaccines. We can analyze its performance down to the level of individual molecules. We have the complete human genome, which is a depth of knowledge people could not have dreamed of decades ago. This is the epitome 21st century technology. It would have been science fiction in 1990, and it would have been unimaginable in 1960. Based on all of this, we know for sure that the mRNA vaccines are the safest, most effective and best medical intervention in human history. Also, by far the fastest ever developed, and the most carefully tested and monitored.


    You might doubt that, but just about every expert on earth disagrees with you. I am sure they are right and you are wrong, just as I am sure that people like Fleischmann and Bockris understood electrochemistry and calorimetry better the editors at the Scientific American and the anonymous idiots at Wikipedia.


    I don't think that's remotely true. And I don't think you are the position to know half the things you claim to be true. Practically every post you make is about pushing some personal emotion based bias or another. You don't seem to have the self confidence to even question your own biases. You form half baked opinions and then produce these arrogant brain farts asserting that everyone else is stupid because you say so and therefore it must be so.


    You really think that 'Every public health agency, every major hospital and every doctor on God's green Earth' have the time, expertise and resources to carry out epidemiological studies on the effects of mRNA vaccines? How much time and money do you think these people have? I think you have a very skewed impression of the way the medical establishment works. Many of these people will be on the front line and most will have an opinion of their own, but they have to defer to higher authority when it comes to the science. They will have access to exactly the same medical studies that you do. And they are basically winging their way through life like the rest of us.


    As for what their opinions happen to be, I don't think you are in a position to be able to speak for all of them, or even tell me what percentage think one way or another. My GP told me quite bluntly at the height of this so called corona virus crisis, that mortality rates in our town were about the same as they had been for years. He was critical of the lock downs, because he believed that the isolation and forced changes would create an unprecedented mental health crisis. He was certainly right about that. I strongly suspect that lock downs had negative public health benefits overall. Many people put on weight, many developed mental health problems and the disruption to social life was extreme.


    Yet anyone questioning the lock downs at the time was considered to be an anarchist, a fascist, a scaremongering terrorist, etc. Many were actually arrested. Pretty much the same thing happens to anyone questioning the efficacy of vaccines now. If they work in the medical establishment, they are unlikely to keep their jobs. In some places, they may actually get arrested. In such an environment, it is bold indeed to claim without a shred of evidence that 'all medical personnel, everywhere', think these things are perfectly safe. The fact is that there are risks involved in practically every form of medicine. If that doesn't apply to mRNA vaccines, then they are unique in the history of medical science.

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