The Playground

  • Don't hold your breath on a study on Vaxer pregnancy for quite awhile. As of ten days ago the trials for ivermectin were only half enrolled here in the US. No rush to get real data or save lives! Jab jab jab till the bank vault is full!!!

  • Delta is on its way to extinction!


    Biological Significance of the Genomic Variation and Structural Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617


    Biological Significance of the Genomic Variation and Structural Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617
    Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have been emerging and circulating globally since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, of…
    www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


    Meanwhile 22 positively selected sites were found in nine different proteins, with 14 (63.6%) sites distributed in the structural proteins, of which nine (41%) were located in the S protein. Additionally, six of these 22 sites were led by C-to-U transition (R134N in nsp10, A394V in nsp14, A222V and H1101D/Y in S, and P13T and T135I in N). As C-to-U transition is a preferred direction of nucleotide mutations in SARS-CoV-2 (Matyasek and Kovarik, 2020; van Dorp et al., 2020), we should pay more attention on the 16 positive selection sites that were mutations of other directions than C to U. Notably, seven sites, of which four (57%) were located in the S protein, were identified under strong positive selection (Table 1). No positive selection sites were found localized in the RBD.


    Delta Variant May Have "Mutated Itself Into Extinction" In Japan, Suggest Researchers

    Delta Variant May Have 'Mutated Itself Into Extinction' In Japan, Suggest Researchers
    In July, Japan was hit by its largest COVID-19 wave yet. Driven by the introduction of the more infectious Delta variant, cases surged to a record of nearl
    www.iflscience.com



    They found multiple genetic changes at a site within nsp14, called A394V. These mutations appear to contribute to a crippled virus that is unable to replicate, which could explain how the Delta variant simply vanished from Japan in a matter of months.

  • Well I guess this is just bluster to promote more jabs!


    Health minister suggests fourth vaccine dose amid rising fears of fifth COVID wave


    chrome-distiller://ac2295d2-c85f-49b2-bf60-6447370f2f96_f4a7892f9c0d9bafbb03fbcfb7299ed90ef642cc48e66532e58e2ada6428ebda/?title=Health+minister+suggests+fourth+vaccine+dose+amid+rising+fears+of+fifth+COVID+wave+%7C+The+Times+of+Israel&time=113858859&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.timesofisrael.com%2Fhealth-minister-suggests-fourth-vaccine-dose-amid-rising-fears-of-fifth-covid-wave%2F


    Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said Wednesday that Israelis may need to get a fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose at some point if cases climb again, as the country’s top coronavirus official warned that the country may already be seeing the start of a fifth infection wave.

    There is no fifth wave infection yet. Perhaps they are seeing the start of it in some ways with variants or something, but the number of infections and deaths has not increased. This data is up to date as of midnight every day, and it comes from the Israeli Min. of Health:



    If they need another booster, they should get it. If all of us need a booster every year for the rest of our lives, we should get it. It is no different from getting an influenza vaccine booster, or a tetanus booster every 10 years.


    The pandemic is fully under control in Israel, Japan and some other countries with high vaccination rates. It will remain under control unless a new variant emerges. I am sure the case tracking in Japan will work with only ~100 cases a day. The pandemic is less under control in some other countries with high rates such as S. Korea, so you need more than a high vaccination rate. Vaccinations are necessary but not sufficient. I think masking, case tracking and other techniques are needed, but I wouldn't know.


  • That is probably caused by the base rate fallacy.

    I do not think so, the increase is in elderly groups, that are around 4-6 months from their vaccination, and less so for groups

    that got their vaccination later. Also there is a pre print on lancet that shows that one should take a booster around 6 months

    from the second jab using a very detailed statistics that is using a lot of info about vaccinated and non vaccinated that you typically

    not see in other studies. There could be some effect from more people getting vaccinated. The authorities(FHM) here is now very

    eager to start vaccinating people now, and the hospitals, it seams have thought that we are over this had decreased the vaccination

    infrastructure. It's messy and no one wants to take the blame for this. Numbers seam to indicate that the Hospitalizations will start

    to grow exponentially now and things can happen fast from here on.

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  • Take our free online course on fighting misinformation - Verified
    A new course from Verified and wikiHow will teach you what you need to know to fight harmful misinformation
    shareverified.com




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  • The cases in RSA have doubled within 1 day. The positive rate did explode to > 30%.

    New name (WHO) for the variant of concern Omicron. Have the socks ready. Pfizer did a very poor job on teh base variant already so what will happen ADE??


    Watch the news the next few days not just stock exchanges...

  • Here is the third part of the analysis of UK data:

    UK data: Impact of vaccines on deaths. Part 3: Recently vaccinated (within 21 days of 1st dose)
    I evaluate UK 2021 all cause deaths to compare recently vaccinated (w/in 21 days of 1st dose) and show no evidence of vaccine-caused deaths
    www.covid-datascience.com


    UK data: Impact of vaccines on deaths. Part 3: Recently vaccinated (within 21 days of 1st dose)

    This is part 3 in a 4 part blog post series exploring what the data posted by the UK's Office of National Statistics (ONS) on November 1st tell us about the effect of the national vaccination program on death rates.


    Part 1 focused on COVID-19 deaths.

    Part 2 focused on all-cause deaths, comparing fully vaccinated (2 dose) vs. unvaccinated.

    We showed the all-cause death rate is much lower in fully (2 dose) vaccinated individuals than unvaccinated individuals in the decade-based age groups 60-69yr, 70-79yr, and 80-89yr, showing a clear net mortality benefit for these groups among those who were fully (2 dose) vaccinated. If the vaccine-related complications from the second dose resulted in any deaths, they were outweighed by the lives saved. The higher all-cause death rate observed in fully (2 dose) vaccinated individuals in the 10-59yr age group has been championed by some as clear evidence of vaccine-caused mortality.


    However, as I illustrated in part 2 of this series (and the Ghosbuster-themed parody, presented also in this twitter thread), this effect can be fully explained the the major age disparity between the vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals within the 10-59yr age group producing a Simpson's paradox distortion.


    After accounting for these age disparities, the ratio of all-cause deaths between vaccinated:unvaccinated observed in this cohort is actually considerably lower than one would expect. Thus, the aggregated 10-59yr data do not provide any evidence of vaccine-caused deaths. If the ONS releases more granular data in this age group, we can further assess, but a reasoned analysis of these aggregated data does not suggest any. . . .

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  • Here the latest summary about the Gates ties to WHO and Switzerland. Unluckily in German and as usual to many words....


    https://uncutnews.ch/insider-d…liegen-neue-erkenntnisse/


    As Salieri said to Mozart (in movie): To many notes... (What refers to his composition not Mozart's of course but who will get this...)

    Your uncutnews.ch source seem to be way more „faky“ than what Alan did cite …

    Just search for uncutnews.ch seriös…

    e.g. (German only)

    Fake News: Auch in der Schweiz gibt es verzerrte Fakten
    Die Blogs heissen «Alles Schall und Rauch», Uncut-News.ch oder «We Are Change».
    www.persoenlich.com

  • After reading about Omikron, the new, mutation of the "slowly" mutating covid virus I'm starting to think that it was indeed a

    mistake to vaccinate all and force the virus to mutate (well we could have done it but then we should be certain that everybody got

    the vaccine). This variant spreads really really fast and I doubt that we will have time to develop a vaccine for it before most of us

    have gotten it.


    I need to start exercise again.


    Winter is coming,

  • After reading about Omikron, the new, mutation of the "slowly" mutating covid virus I'm starting to think that it was indeed a

    mistake to vaccinate all and force the virus to mutate

    That is complete bullshit. Vaccination does not "force" a virus to mutate. On the contrary, letting it infect millions of people unrestricted is what causes mutations. Antibiotics can cause mutations, when an incomplete dose is taken. Vaccines do not have that effect.

  • That is complete bullshit. Vaccination does not "force" a virus to mutate. On the contrary, letting it infect millions of people unrestricted is what causes mutations. Antibiotics can cause mutations, when an incomplete dose is taken. Vaccines do not have that effect.

    This is bullshit if natural covid infection led to the same response as the vaccine. Now the vaccine has only one target and it is very beneficial for the virus to overcome the vaccine induced immunity. The natural version is more robust not only because there are potentially more features the body match for, but also the immunity varies in the whole population meaning that the virus will adapt more likely to a sub population of the society, and in the end we will get an endemic situation, like with the flue in a normal year. Now in stead we

    will risk overcrowding the ICU year after year after year and also, consider that the reason of lethality might be disjoint from where the virus potentially will mutate at to overcome the single point of failure we have with today's vaccines and we risk the virus to become not so nice as it would if it would mutate at multiple sites to overcome the multitude of the natural immunity and hence have a better chance of reducing the consequences of it. Don't underestimate our immune system.

  • This is bullshit if natural covid infection led to the same response as the vaccine.

    If a natural infection did not lead to the same response as the vaccine, the vaccine would not work. Both must result in an immune response, and antibodies. Granted, there are minor differences between them. For that matter, there are differences between patients, and between COVID variants.


    The natural version is more robust

    No, it is not.