The Playground

Quote from Mark U-Turn

Mark is saying that the CDC study, even with a 1 percent daily reduction in cases, is both questionable and still underwhelming.

Thank you Mark… For proving my assumption about your u-turn.

You used to quote this paper all the time, before your misunderstanding of it was pointed out. So now you feel it it has become ‘questionable and underwhelming’?

Have you ever heard of John Maynard Keynes’ great putdown: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?”

It would seem that you prefer to alter which ‘facts’ you believe in, in order to maintain an idée fixe: In this case, that masks are useless. Nice work!

I suppose these are the same kind of mental gymnastics required to keep up your support of (maybe ‘hope in’) Andrea Rossi...

Quote from Mark U

PS I don't know how you are going from a 1 percent daily reduction to a 3700 percent yearly reduction.

Memory failing you Mark? A touch of long covid perhaps?

Quote from Mark U

By gosh you're right, it is daily. My error….

1.01^365 =~ 37.8

Quote from THHuxleynew

I don't think they are at all clear-cut. I'd like to see those on Mark U's side of the argument put up a better defence of it than he has so far!

Faux outrage at stupidities works for politicians, not so well when trying to create a coherent and believable argument. So - go for it - what are the principled reasons for discouraging mask wearing, as Mark U boasts he did?

This is not simply a "masks are good, so tell me why you think they are not" discussion. Sounds like it should be, but there is a lot more depth to it than that. Before responding, first I have to know what type mask you are saying works, cost/mask and cost/week, proper fitting, how many times and how long at one wearing, can they be used, and what age groups should wear them?

It would also help to know your opinion as to the pitfalls when the lesser quality masks are worn, worn improperly, used when dirty, etc.?

Then there are the politics of it. Have the leaders set a good example to follow on mask wearing? .

Quote from JedRothwell

Suppose an unvaccinated young person infects a 65-year-old with a breakthrough case.

Did you still not get it??? vaccinated are more vulnerable to CoV-19 hence the risk that a vaccinated person infects you is much higher!!

Quote from Shane D.

This is not simply a "masks are good, so tell me why you think they are not" discussion.

The right masks do protect. Surgical mask that are recommended in most countries give no protection at all for virus aerosols. Surgical mask are used to stop droplets only.

1% protection as some facebook children claim does not exist as nobody is able to measure 1% protection... This is inside the random noise.

If you really want some short term protection then use an FP2 mask at least. Gives you a few minutes in a room with a super spreader. A FP98 mask gives you some hours.

The aerosol protection from a good FP98 (often also called FP3) is 10'000x better than from a surgical mask.

I linked once a professional study done about 10 years ago. This study shows that in each mask class the protection can vary by a factor of 10. So there also is a large difference in quality.

Quote from Fm1

Not confused jed, your experts have not used a booster against Omicron yet but you say a third will restore protection.

Of course they have used a booster against omicron! This is clearly explained in several articles. They test the virus with (1) blood sample antibodies from people with two vaccines, and (2) with samples from people with two vaccines plus a booster. They find that (1) has reduced protection but (2) is as good against omicron as it is against delta, and nearly as good as it was against the first strain.

This is not complicated. You should read the articles a little more carefully before commenting.

There is other evidence that the vaccines and boosters are effective against omicron. The demographics and vaccination status of patients in South Africa point to this. If the vaccines did not work, there would be many older people in the hospitals with breakthrough cases.

Quote from Fm1

Not confused jed, your experts have not used a booster against Omicron yet but you say a third will restore protection. Really? Show me that data.

Here the data from RSA:: https://www.ahri.org/wp-conten…V-2021-267417v1-Sigal.pdf

Reinfection protection::

The remaining 6 participants had a record ofprevious infection in the first SARS-CoV-2 infection wave in South Africa where infection was with ancestral D614G virus (Table S1). Geometric mean titer (GMT) FRNT50 (inverse of the plasma dilution required for 50% reduction in infection foci number) was 1321 for D614G. These samples therefore had very strong neutralization of D614G virus, consistent with sampling soon after vaccination.

Vaccine decline in protection::

GMT FRNT50 for the same samples was 32 for Omicron, a 41-fold decline (Fig 1B).

However, the escape was incomplete, with 5 of the participants, all previously infected, showing

relatively high neutralization titers with Omicron.

Here you can see that the vaccine protection for Omicron is almost gone for most sample it's at least 100x lower. Those with a previous infection still have almost the same protection as from a fresh vaccination !!!!

Quote from Shane D.

first I have to know what type mask you are saying works, cost/mask and cost/week, proper fitting, how many times and how long at one wearing, can they be used, and what age groups should wear them?

You can find all of this and more at authoritative public health sites. This information has been available since the pandemic began. It was available in Japan decades ago, because masks are common there.

What you are asking is a little like asking "how can I use Windows and avoid computer viruses?" That information is all over the internet and it comes with every new computer. You would have to be willfully ignorant not to know, and not to use an antivirus product.

Quote from JedRothwell

Of course they have used a booster against omicron! This is clearly explained in several articles. They test the virus with (1) blood sample antibodies from people with two vaccines, and (2) with samples from people with two vaccines plus a booster. They find that (1) has reduced protection but (2) is as good against omicron as it is against delta, and nearly as good as it was against the first strain.

This is not complicated. You should read the articles a little more carefully before commenting.

There is other evidence that the vaccines and boosters are effective against omicron. The demographics and vaccination status of patients in South Africa point to this. If the vaccines did not work, there would be many older people in the hospitals with breakthrough cases.

From the Reuters article

He said the lab had not tested the variant against blood from people who had received a booster dose, because they are not available in South Africa yet.

Quote from Fm1

From the Reuters article

He said the lab had not tested the variant against blood from people who had received a booster dose, because they are not available in South Africa yet.

Read other articles and you will see that information is incomplete. They have been testing the variant against blood samples of people in the U.S. where many people have had boosters.

Quote from Fm1

Jesus Thomas, I was mocking jed not scientists, again trying to point the discussion to character assignation. And as for arrogant, if providing science that differs from your convictions is arrogant then yes I'm guilty and yes I'm right!

You said:

A week ago omicrm was coming to get us all, Fearmongering, then we find out it's more like a cold so what do the experts say now? Omicron has gone stealth, can't track it. Back to Fearmongering. They just can't help themselves

Scientists find ‘stealth’ version of Omicron that may be harder to track

I don't think that is just commenting on Jed? Who are the experts that you mock here?

Quote from Shane D.

This is not simply a "masks are good, so tell me why you think they are not" discussion. Sounds like it should be, but there is a lot more depth to it than that. Before responding, first I have to know what type mask you are saying works, cost/mask and cost/week, proper fitting, how many times and how long at one wearing, can they be used, and what age groups should wear them?

It would also help to know your opinion as to the pitfalls when the lesser quality masks are worn, worn improperly, used when dirty, etc.?

Then there are the politics of it. Have the leaders set a good example to follow on mask wearing? .

I agree there is a lot of complexity in the data about masks.

I disagree that you need all this complexity to reckon Mark U's views are batty.

The standard recommended mask - fabric, several layers - is the minimum effective type, but still enough to provide quite a bit of protection to the environment from aerosols, and to people directly from particles exhaled and going directly into mouths. That 1%/day R reduction is from such. Since most people wear those, they are what we should be discussing. And all the other issues - like touching old masks - are less important (inhalation is main cause of COVID transmission). Masks should be washed or left to cool off at reasonable temperature for a long time before re-use if you want max personal protection. However, main purpose is environment protection for which all those things don't matter muhc.

Now, if you want to discuss other mask types, personally I have an FFP3 mask (they cost about £3 each bought in packs of 5). If I consider environment to be high risk I will wear it. They are not that unpleasant to wear.

If fitted properly it would provide something like 80% protection for me (and more for others). Heaps better than fabric masks.

The trouble is - it needs to fit properly and that is not easy to get unless you are v clean shaven. I reckon it will still protect me, if held on quite tightly via behind-head straps - which are absolutely needed for anything to fit tightly, maybe 75% but that is a guess because it is difficult to quantify what is the air leakage round my not-clean-shaven face.

Unlike our PM Boris, I'm quite prepared to take precautions based on guesses. If you wait till you are sure you will be dead before deciding anything.

THH

Omicron in south Africa Covid caught a cold?

Why Hasn’t Dr. Fauci Told Americans To Stop Being So G*****n Fat?

Why Hasn’t Dr. Fauci Told Americans To Stop Being So G*****n Fat? - The Daily Caller

Even before COVID-19 came around, obesity was one the biggest killers of Americans for years.

The coronavirus pandemic has only exacerbated the issue. Throughout the rollercoaster of the last 20 months, as the science was constantly shifting and new information was being learned about the virus seemingly daily, it was clear from the very beginning that obesity was one of the biggest risk factors for severe illness or death from COVID-19.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden’s top medical adviser and the country’s public face for COVID-19 guidance, said as much all the way back in March 2020: “It’s so clear that the overwhelming weight of serious disease and mortality is on those who are elderly and those with a serious comorbidity: heart disease, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity, respiratory difficulties.”

Despite being aware of the risks associated with obesity and COVID-19 for the entirety of the pandemic, very little emphasis has been placed on getting Americans to lose some weight in order to fight the pandemic. Losing weight won’t be a quick fix, seeing as it takes some time, but if COVID-19 is going to be with the world forever, as Fauci has admitted, why isn’t it more emphasized?

Fauci has mentioned here and there that obesity is a big problem. He explained in an interview with Hugh Hewitt in March 2021 why obese people specifically are at higher risk. Not only do they tend to have more underlying medical issues, but they physically have a harder time breathing as it is, he said.

He also argued in 2020 that a strategy to defeat the virus through herd immunity was “unacceptable” in part because America has so many fat people that untold numbers might die: “If you look at the United States of America with our epidemic of obesity as it were, with the number of people with hypertension, with the number of people with diabetes, if everyone got infected, the death toll would be enormous and totally unacceptable.”

The doctor seemingly never goes as far as to explicitly tell people to lose weight, though. In an interview with Business Insider, he said three ways to improve the immune system are getting better sleep, having a nutritious diet and getting more sun. In giving his own list of do’s and don’ts to stay safe post-vaccination, he didn’t mention maintaining a healthy weight. “Eat less stuffing and gingerbread cookies” was not in his list of five tips to stay safer from COVID-19 during the holiday season

The problem is only getting worse. New research from Johns Hopkins University found that 56% of Americans between age 18-25 are now overweight or obese. The obesity rate was 42.4% in all adults in 2017-2018, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Americans gained weight during lockdowns last year, and data has since come out showing that childhood obesity has increased since the pandemic began. Some of the mitigation efforts society is taking to combat the virus are seemingly contributing to one of its greatest risk factors. (RELATED: ANALYSIS: COVID Disproved The Notion That Morbidly Obese People Are Also ‘Healthy’)

The statistics are damning. Within the early weeks of the pandemic, at least half of hospitalized COVID-19 patients were obese. Earlier this year, a CDC study found that nearly four-in-five hospitalized patients were overweight or obese. Various analyses have directly linked obesity rate to worse COVID-19 death and hospitalization rates at a national level. Still, America’s leading public health officials appear to prefer tip-toeing around telling Americans to drop some pounds to end the pandemic.

Sure, let's put our lives in big pharma's hands, they wouldn't hide data......

As red flags multiplied, Johnson & Johnson kept quiet on popular diabetes drug

Invokana was the company’s big bet on the vast market for type 2 diabetes drugs. While sales soared, Reuters found, executives rebuffed their safety experts’ advice to warn regulators about a dangerous complication.

As red flags multiplied, J&J kept quiet on popular diabetes drug

While sales of Invokana soared, Reuters found, company executives rebuffed their safety experts’ advice to warn regulators about a dangerous complication.

www.reuters.com

The drug, Invokana, had been on the market less than a year, and sales were already rocketing toward $1 billion. Now, in a small conference room on J&J’s campus here, senior executives listened as the safety experts described a potential threat to the drug’s success. In separate and strikingly similar reports sent to the company and reviewed by Reuters, doctors from across the United States told of 18 patients sickened by a rare and potentially fatal buildup of acid in the blood, known as diabetic ketoacidosis, or DKA, within days or weeks of starting Invokana.

Dr Bruce Leslie, who led the safety team at the March 2014 meeting, recommended that the company alert U.S. and European regulators. “I think we should get out in front of this,” Leslie told executives in the room, as he recounted in an interview with Reuters. “Otherwise, it could come back and bite us in the ass.”

The executives weren’t persuaded. They decided to take no action.

Quote from JedRothwell

Read other articles and you will see that information is incomplete. They have been testing the variant against blood samples of people in the U.S. where many people have had boosters.

For 9 out of 12 sample neutralization goes down to almost 0. They used the blood of people post second jab. So Pfizer is as usual cheating the people. A booster will for 10000% certainly no make a difference.

How Ivermectin did help Japan to eliminate CoV-19

Ivermectin in Japan

Antivirals in JapanIvermectin allowed as a treatment on August 13Doctors can prescribe without restrictionsPeople can buy it legally from IndiaDr. Haruo Ozak...

www.youtube.com

Quote from THHuxleynew

I agree there is a lot of complexity in the data about masks.

I disagree that you need all this complexity to reckon Mark U's views are batty.

The standard recommended mask - fabric, several layers - is the minimum effective type, but still enough to provide quite a bit of protection to the environment from aerosols, and to people directly from particles exhaled and going directly into mouths. That 1%/day R reduction is from such. Since most people wear those, they are what we should be discussing. And all the other issues - like touching old masks - are less important (inhalation is main cause of COVID transmission). Masks should be washed or left to cool off at reasonable temperature for a long time before re-use if you want max personal protection. However, main purpose is environment protection for which all those things don't matter muhc.

Now, if you want to discuss other mask types, personally I have an FFP3 mask (they cost about £3 each bought in packs of 5). If I consider environment to be high risk I will wear it. They are not that unpleasant to wear.

If fitted properly it would provide something like 80% protection for me (and more for others). Heaps better than fabric masks.

The trouble is - it needs to fit properly and that is not easy to get unless you are v clean shaven. I reckon it will still protect me, if held on quite tightly via behind-head straps - which are absolutely needed for anything to fit tightly, maybe 75% but that is a guess because it is difficult to quantify what is the air leakage round my not-clean-shaven face.

Unlike our PM Boris, I'm quite prepared to take precautions based on guesses. If you wait till you are sure you will be dead before deciding anything.

THH

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Well, you asked if anyone could put up a better defense against masks than Mark, so I wanted to establish a baseline first before I tried. Seems though as if you and I are basically on the same page about masks and their effectiveness.

Nonetheless, I do like to laugh about the folly of the whole mask thing, even though if everyone wore one, and used them properly, it would make a difference. Like Mark though, I see with my own eyes that most people are simply not wearing the right type of masks, and if they do, not fitting them correctly, or maintaining them well. Basically, all of us, including those making the rules, enforcing the rules, and preaching to others...are cheating!

Yet the charade goes on. Hard to take it seriously.

Dr. Campbell did dig a bit deeper. 70% of the patient in the RSA COV-19 corona hospitalization graph are not admitted because of CoV-19. A routine check just finds Omicron in patients. So in reality there is almost no increase in patient admission due to CoV-19. The number of deaths is also more or less flat for the last 5 weeks!!

(Deaths on page 2)

So Omicron will end the pandemic within 2-3 months from now. It contains an insertion from a alpha corona virus (causes common cold) that makes it more fit, but much, much less lethal.

For Omicron most of you need no vaccine at all!! Except the persons at risk.

Quote from Shane D.

Nonetheless, I do like to laugh about the folly of the whole mask thing, even though if everyone wore one, and used them properly, it would make a difference.

Japan and the UK have roughly the same vaccination percent, but the situation is vastly different. Many people think the biggest difference between Japan and the UK is that people in Japan have been wearing masks in public since 1900 or so. In the U.S., places like Atlanta enforced masks, while suburban and rural areas did not. Atlanta has far fewer cases, even though population density is higher. I think these and other facts show that masks make a big difference.

Data from 1918 also shows that masks reduce the spread of influenza.