Quote from Wyttenbach

More pipi. Did you notice you checked age 60?

You did not specify under-60. Ovwer-60 is the default.

Now: this folks is actually make subtle and clever than typical antivaxxer memes, although just as misleading.

W took the only graph he could find that seemed strange and cropped it to make the strangeness difficult to explain. And posted it.

Let us look at that severe ill graph,

קורונה - לוח בקרה

If you select: per 100K/ over 60 you get what I posted - which is what you expect. W knows that, so he won't post it.

Under-60, you get something a bit like what W posted but note not the same.

• Now look at severe patients - new. This shows for each week how many new patients in each category were admitted to ICU. You can see it is 1 or 0, and random. The "very concerning" trend is a statistical blip.
• Notice also, for all of these graphs, that boostered >> two dose vaccinated >> unvaccinated
• Finally notice you DO gte anomalies in these graphs whenever Israel decides that certain ages need more doses to be fully vaccinated, which move people from dark green to light green graph.

This is copying antivaxxer behaviour at a more fundamental level. W is sifting uncritically through data till he finds something that looks bad for Pfizer vaccines, and then latches onto it without any curiosity or ability to research it further. It is a real lack in his process here.

If you select under 50 there are so few people (for the boostered and vaccinated graphs) that the quantisation makes a one person increase look like X4.

To see that

(1) 0 booster patients

Quote from Fm1

New study provides robust evidence that COVID-19 is a seasonal infection

Common sense and one glance at the data from North and South American proves that the steep decline of COVID in 2021 was caused by the vaccines. It is ridiculous to argue otherwise. There may be some seasonal effects, but the graphs from Chile, the U.S. and Japan all correlate with vaccines, which were given simultaneously in all three countries. Does FM1 not realize that the seasons are reversed in the northern and southern hemispheres?

Here is an excellent page describing the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated mortality, up through COVID delta. It may not apply as much to omicron.

How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not?

How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not?

To understand how the pandemic is evolving, it’s crucial to know how death rates from COVID-19 are affected by vaccination status.

ourworldindata.org

It clearly explains the base rate fallacy. Here is an imaginary example:

Let’s think through an example to see this.

Imagine we live in a place with a population of 60 people.

Then we learn that 10 people died. And we learn that 50% of them were vaccinated.

The newspaper may run the headline “Half of those who died from the virus were vaccinated”. But this headline does not tell us anything about whether the vaccine is protecting people or not.

To be able to say anything, we also need to know about those who did not die: how many people in this population were vaccinated? And how many were not vaccinated?

Now we have all the information we need and can calculate the death rates:

• of 10 unvaccinated people, 5 died → the death rate among the unvaccinated is 50%
• of 50 vaccinated people, 5 died → the death rate among the vaccinated is 10%

We therefore see that the death rate among the vaccinated is 5-times lower than among the unvaccinated.

And here is a real-world example, Switzerland:

Quote from JedRothwell

Common sense and one glance at the data from North and South American proves that the steep decline of COVID in 2021 was caused by the vaccines. It is ridiculous to argue otherwise. There may be some seasonal effects, but the graphs from Chile, the U.S. and Japan all correlate with vaccines, which were given simultaneously in all three countries. Does FM1 not realize that the seasons are reversed in the northern and southern hemispheres?

You remind me of John R. Huizenga

Climatic signatures in the different COVID-19 pandemic waves across both hemispheres

Climatic signatures in the different COVID-19 pandemic waves across both hemispheres - Nature Computational Science

Using a statistical method for transient correlations, the waxing and waning in levels of population infection by SARS-CoV-2 are shown to respond to…

www.nature.com

Abstract

The roles of climate and true seasonal signatures in the epidemiology of emergent pathogens, and that of SARS-CoV-2 in particular, remain poorly understood. With a statistical method designed to detect transitory associations, we show, for COVID-19 cases, strong consistent negative effects of both temperature and absolute humidity at large spatial scales. At finer spatial resolutions, we substantiate these connections during the seasonal rise and fall of COVID-19. Strong disease responses are identified in the first two waves, suggesting clear ranges for temperature and absolute humidity that are similar to those formerly described for seasonal influenza. For COVID-19, in all studied regions and pandemic waves, a process-based model that incorporates a temperature-dependent transmission rate outperforms baseline formulations with no driver or a sinusoidal seasonality. Our results, so far, classify COVID-19 as a seasonal low-temperature infection and suggest an important contribution of the airborne pathway in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, with implications for the control measures we discuss.

Quote from h_l

According to my personal list there are four hints that this is a sock puppet.

A Socratic Dialog Puppet post doesn't bother me.
(Or Platonic .... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socratic_dialogue)

Meanwhile :

2022-01-05 08:49 Sophia

Dear Dr Andrea Rossi,

Does your US patent cover totally the Ecat SKLep ?

(Also French? Or Romanian?)

2022-01-05 09:37 Andrea Rossi

Sophia:

No, we made other patents that are pending.

Warm Regards,

A.R.

Quote from Fm1

John R. Huizenga

d.2014 R.I.P

Cookie Absent

Quote from JedRothwell

Common sense and one glance at the data from North and South American proves that the steep decline of COVID in 2021 was caused by the vaccines. It is ridiculous to argue otherwise. There may be some seasonal effects, but the graphs from Chile, the U.S. and Japan all correlate with vaccines, which were given simultaneously in all three countries. Does FM1 not realize that the seasons are reversed in the northern and southern hemispheres?

The cases in south America began a sharp decline in September, that's spring. Japan sudden drop ocured during the summer and I'm not clear on the sharp drop in cases in America , do you mean last winter when we had administered about 5 million first jabs and infections fell at a huge rate?That's a streach ! Japan is now entering it's annual flu season. Japan also saw a mutation in delta at nsp 14. Some researchers believe that played a part in the drop. Omicrom carries that same mutation that plays a role in editing . You ignore this research

Quote from THHuxleynew

If you select under 50 there are so few people

You show only you are a 1000% dilettante. I did show a concerning trend not history. I mentioned boostered are low but as you suffer from dementia I just ignore this. Rates are only used by vaccine terrorists to hide tend facts as you regularly do e.g. by including all death from 2020 to unvaxx death...

Quote from JedRothwell

And here is a real-world example, Switzerland:

Please stop to post fraudulent data. 50% of deaths are double vaxx the last 6 weeks according state official page. This is the same trick as your vaccine terrorist buddy makes too. Using cumulative data without looking at details. Swiss vaccination rate was low until late summer guess why more unvaxx did die....

Quote from Fm1

Our results, so far, classify COVID-19 as a seasonal low-temperature infection and suggest an important contribution of the airborne pathway in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, with implications for the control measures we discuss.

FM1 - there is some merit in what you say, but you turn possible things into certainties, and partial relationships into exact causal relationships. There is nothing more destructive to science than overconfidence and over-interpretation of preliminary data - I recommend you not to do it.

Misinformation in and about science

Humans learn about the world by collectively acquiring information, filtering it, and sharing what we know. Misinformation undermines this process. The…

www.pnas.org

(1) First - what are we talking about? The issue is that R0 for COVID will undoubtedly vary with season., because we know, quite apart from virus persisting longer in cold air, that in most places winter means people stay indoors with windows closed - exactly the conditions needed to spread COVID. So R0 will be higher. How muhc is not clear, nor have you quantified it, nor does this paper quantify it.

No-one denies that - in fact the science on that has not significantly changed.

(2) COVID waves are not restricted to winter, nor do they always happen in winter. Do I need to recite counterexamples

(3) The science for when you gte a COVID wave is pretty simple, R0 > 1. Infections then increase exponentially till something changes (vaccination - as with delta wave in the UK, survivor's immunity - as with devastating delta wave in India, new variant - as in the start of almost all waves). Seasonality, as something that affects R0, could be the changing factor but it changes slowly, and it is not at all clear how large its affect is.

(4) Infection rate - what people notice, then comes from integrating how R varies over time. > 1 => infection increases, < 1 => infection decreases.

(5) It is just silly to say that COVID waves only happen in winter. Look at the Florida Summer delta epidemic. Look at the original COVID spread in Italy which happened in the Winter still.

(6) Hot countries like most of India (except for industrialist parts with AC) have a natural advantage - people do not tend to stay indoors with windows open. This same seasonal effect is in places like India a "Covid spreads less here" effect. Alas it still spreads.

No-one in their right minds would say that omicron will spread through an omicron-naive population only in winter. Sure, it will spread fast in winter. But it spreads so far anyway that it would be problematic whenever.

And so many factors determine R0, you need great care to disentangle them

• voluntary and forced mobility change - working at home, internet shopping etc
• effectiveness of testing & isolation
• social distancing, mask wearing
• ventilation in buildings (UK did none of this, hence we get nice sharp fast covid weaves)
• vaccination - by age group - and time from last vaccination (since they wear off)
• survivor's immunity - and time from last wave (since it wears off
• variant (both survivors immunity and vaccination vary in effectiveness, both are less for omicron)
• typical external temperature - direct effect, and indirect effect as it pushes social meetings indoors, and indoor windows to be more closed

You can't collapse this into "COVID only happens in winter". But you can say, for most countries "COVID R0 will be larger in winter, other things being equal". Which by the way is all that paper you quoted says.

THH

Quote from Wyttenbach

Please stop to post fraudulent data. 50% of deaths are double vaxx the last 6 weeks according state official page. This is the same trick as your vaccine terrorist buddy makes too. Using cumulative data without looking at details. Swiss vaccination rate was low until late summer guess why more unvaxx did die....

So this is an interesting W antivaxxer technique - again one I don't highlight.

Lying. (Or perhaps very extreme forgetfullness?)

The last graph I posted was the detailed data - not the cumulative data. That is because W posted a misleading cumulative data graph and implies vaccination over a two week period was becoming 4X less effective at preventing serious disease - which would be weird. So that is exactly the opposite of what W says here: and W is guilty of posting cumulative data not details. If anyone wants to argue further about Israel post exactly what you look at, with a precise description of what YOU THINK the axes are: numbers, numbers per 100K population, numbers per 100K in selected status subgroup.

There is a difference. I post details to show why you can prove almost anything (wrongly) by subgrouping. W take datasets that come with warnings not to interpret them because of errors, and subgroups them till the errors are large enough to show what he wants, or makes baseline fallacy errors, or Simpson's paradox errors, etc. Then he extrapolates from the largest error you can find assuming that is it. Like somone who can only see the color red and minutely examines a predominantly blue Cezanne picture for the tiny specs of red, ignoring the overall color.

So I agree with W that cumulative results and separated results matter. You need however to apply scientific (and human) curiosity to the figures, and work them out, with humility. It is tough, often can't be done, and I realise for W the humility bit is impossible. So I don't blame him for not doing it. I do blame him for not realising this, and I also blame him for thinking and saying that he knows better than 99% of the medical and scientific community when he continually makes obvious errors and anyway are like me is no expert here.

THH

Quote from THHuxleynew

FM1 - there is some merit in what you say, but you turn possible things into certainties, and partial relationships into exact causal relationships. There is nothing more destructive to science than overconfidence and over-interpretation of preliminary data - I recommend you not to do it.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e1912444117

(1) First - what are we talking about? The issue is that R0 for COVID will undoubtedly vary with season., because we know, quite apart from virus persisting longer in cold air, that in most places winter means people stay indoors with windows closed - exactly the conditions needed to spread COVID. So R0 will be higher. How muhc is not clear, nor have you quantified it, nor does this paper quantify it.

No-one denies that - in fact the science on that has not significantly changed.

(2) COVID waves are not restricted to winter, nor do they always happen in winter. Do I need to recite counterexamples

(3) The science for when you gte a COVID wave is pretty simple, R0 > 1. Infections then increase exponentially till something changes (vaccination - as with delta wave in the UK, survivor's immunity - as with devastating delta wave in India, new variant - as in the start of almost all waves). Seasonality, as something that affects R0, could be the changing factor but it changes slowly, and it is not at all clear how large its affect is.

(4) Infection rate - what people notice, then comes from integrating how R varies over time. > 1 => infection increases, < 1 => infection decreases.

(5) It is just silly to say that COVID waves only happen in winter. Look at the Florida Summer delta epidemic. Look at the original COVID spread in Italy which happened in the Winter still.

(6) Hot countries like most of India (except for industrialist parts with AC) have a natural advantage - people do not tend to stay indoors with windows open. This same seasonal effect is in places like India a "Covid spreads less here" effect. Alas it still spreads.

No-one in their right minds would say that omicron will spread through an omicron-naive population only in winter. Sure, it will spread fast in winter. But it spreads so far anyway that it would be problematic whenever.

And so many factors determine R0, you need great care to disentangle them

• voluntary and forced mobility change - working at home, internet shopping etc
• effectiveness of testing & isolation
• social distancing, mask wearing
• ventilation in buildings (UK did none of this, hence we get nice sharp fast covid weaves)
• vaccination - by age group - and time from last vaccination (since they wear off)
• survivor's immunity - and time from last wave (since it wears off
• variant (both survivors immunity and vaccination vary in effectiveness, both are less for omicron)
• typical external temperature - direct effect, and indirect effect as it pushes social meetings indoors, and indoor windows to be more closed

You can't collapse this into "COVID only happens in winter". But you can say, for most countries "COVID R0 will be larger in winter, other things being equal". Which by the way is all that paper you quoted says.

THH

Display More

You miss the point. Vaccination rates look wonderful in the summer months, not so much in winter. Vaccines were trialed in summer months for efficacy and only summer months. Breakthroughs in trail participants began before the full rollout in December. Jed's claims of sudden drop in cases is due to the vaccine only is insane given the research I've shown. I'm just shoving science down his throat.

Quote from THHuxleynew

The last graph I posted was the detailed data - not the cumulative data. That is because you posted a misleading cumulative data graph and implies vaccination over a two week period was becoming 4X less effective at preventing serious disease -

How crazy are you? I posted that there is, given by facts a strong increase, 4x in cases among vaccinated in Israel! Why? Pfizer crap does not work for Omicron!!!

Please start to understand this. I did recommend a J&J booster but you fool took a Pfizer!

Wyttenbach

FYI -there is no Rossi thread.

Quote from Alan Smith

FYI -there is no Rossi thread.

Didn't notice that you killed it.... Didn't read it for years...

Quote from THHuxleynew

FM1 - there is some merit in what you say, but you turn possible things into certainties, and partial relationships into exact causal relationships. There is nothing more destructive to science than overconfidence and over-interpretation of preliminary data - I recommend you not to do it.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e1912444117

(1) First - what are we talking about? The issue is that R0 for COVID will undoubtedly vary with season., because we know, quite apart from virus persisting longer in cold air, that in most places winter means people stay indoors with windows closed - exactly the conditions needed to spread COVID. So R0 will be higher. How muhc is not clear, nor have you quantified it, nor does this paper quantify it.

No-one denies that - in fact the science on that has not significantly changed.

(2) COVID waves are not restricted to winter, nor do they always happen in winter. Do I need to recite counterexamples

(3) The science for when you gte a COVID wave is pretty simple, R0 > 1. Infections then increase exponentially till something changes (vaccination - as with delta wave in the UK, survivor's immunity - as with devastating delta wave in India, new variant - as in the start of almost all waves). Seasonality, as something that affects R0, could be the changing factor but it changes slowly, and it is not at all clear how large its affect is.

(4) Infection rate - what people notice, then comes from integrating how R varies over time. > 1 => infection increases, < 1 => infection decreases.

(5) It is just silly to say that COVID waves only happen in winter. Look at the Florida Summer delta epidemic. Look at the original COVID spread in Italy which happened in the Winter still.

(6) Hot countries like most of India (except for industrialist parts with AC) have a natural advantage - people do not tend to stay indoors with windows open. This same seasonal effect is in places like India a "Covid spreads less here" effect. Alas it still spreads.

No-one in their right minds would say that omicron will spread through an omicron-naive population only in winter. Sure, it will spread fast in winter. But it spreads so far anyway that it would be problematic whenever.

And so many factors determine R0, you need great care to disentangle them

• voluntary and forced mobility change - working at home, internet shopping etc
• effectiveness of testing & isolation
• social distancing, mask wearing
• ventilation in buildings (UK did none of this, hence we get nice sharp fast covid weaves)
• vaccination - by age group - and time from last vaccination (since they wear off)
• survivor's immunity - and time from last wave (since it wears off
• variant (both survivors immunity and vaccination vary in effectiveness, both are less for omicron)
• typical external temperature - direct effect, and indirect effect as it pushes social meetings indoors, and indoor windows to be more closed

You can't collapse this into "COVID only happens in winter". But you can say, for most countries "COVID R0 will be larger in winter, other things being equal". Which by the way is all that paper you quoted says.

THH

Display More

Go read Hope Simpson, and then put up world meter graphs. The waves are a pattern following seasonal change smaller waves in spring and summer but both occuring just before the seasonal equinox and suddenly dropping just after. It has followed through nations along laditudal lines and is influenced by the sun and not vaccines. Every mutation has occurred after very active periods on the sun. Alpha and beta in August after a large CME in July, delta after the biggest CME in 70 years in December and omicrom after a double CME soaked into earth in October. May not mean a thing but then again..........

Quote from Wyttenbach

I did show a concerning trend not history.

I am glad you are showing some interest in this.

You showed a trend that was inside statistical noise, as became appararent when youi choose the data set I did that shows individual number of new severe illnesses per week. that was 0, 1, 2 for all and only ever 0,1 for the vaccinated graph. Consequently there is too much noise in the integrated signal (active severe illness) for any trend to be determined. We expect there will be a trend - since efficacy falls off with time - but the graph against serious disease is much less steep than against infection (from otehr datasets, and real world evidence). Actually there is another driver, which is that efficacy against omicron severe illness may be less high than against delta. From UK we still don't know, but it seems not for young people.

You were subgrouping to younger people, so that trend would not be expected in your data. I sudden change from delta to omicron as dominant variant could however cause a change. Anyway - whatever trend we expect (and it is as you can see from above still uncertain) the data you show does not make any trend because of teh very low numbers of people. One of teh perils of subgrouping, and why your tendency to subgroup things looking for what you expect to find so misleads you.

Working through all these possibilities is the sort of thing people who analyse data do. I can't say I'm an expert, but I have done it a bit - having my share of weird datasets that I try to extract meaning from, and I also follow experts (who I know are much better than me) understanding what they are doing. It is a way to get educated pretty fast.

Quote from Fm1

Go read Hope Simpson, and then put up world meter graphs. The waves are a pattern following seasonal change smaller waves in spring and summer but both occuring just before the seasonal equinox and suddenly dropping

FM1 - try to have some humility. It is tough to admit you are not sure, but helpful.

There is nothing wrong with http://hsmap.rice.edu/

I applaud all types of data analysis.

What is wrong is over-interpretation. How about you argue one specific where your (Hope-Simpson analysis derived) calculation is different from what I have said, which is really quite general? I mean - everyone knows that there is a strong seasonal correlation with Flu and most respiratory diseases. COVID will get more like that over time and there is some effect now which is why all the COVID modellers worry about winter.

I do not think you are even able to say what is the difference here between my view and yours?

Quote from THHuxleynew

You showed a trend that was inside statistical noise,

Trends are never inside noise. This is a contradiction in terminology.

Omicron can be seen in Israel since two weeks. This graphics shows people admitted to hospital by vaccine type. This graphics says nothing about how serious the cases are. I did choose the absolute number for last month.

You did choose a different graph....