The Playground

  • On ECW, everyone is talking about how ordering through PayPal is "no risk" since PayPal will reimburse.

    Is PayPal aware they are taking on an implicit warranty for a quarter of a billion dollars on Rossi's deliveries and proper functioning of the delivered product?

    Someone ought to tell them they are about to take a major loss.


    Edit:

    Just after posting I think I figured it out.

    Rossi's gimmick will be that of course PayPal and credit cards, etc, will refuse to participate.

    This will leave "no alternative" than for Rossi to ask for checks, or cash, or Bitcoin.

    It is not his fault you know. Some "troll" must have reported him or Big Oil is trying to squash him. It is a conspiracy you know.

  • Haven't we been close to the end on a yearly basis now for over a decade? This time it will not be different. The only thing I am curious about is how he will get out of it this time.

    Get out of what? He makes claims and they prove to be nonsense. He has failed to do or show anything real for a decade and he still has people who believe in him. That is likely to continue.

  • Edit :


    2022-01-07 08:35 Neri Accornero

    Dear Andrea put an automatically updated and clearly visible pre-order counter for Ecat SKLep on the home page of your site and you will see that they will fly exponentially.

    Neri


    2022-01-07 10:06 Andrea Rossi

    Neri Accornero:

    Thank you for the suggestion. I foresee a big surprise: actually, the increase IS exponential. Nobody could think the video of the December 9th presentation could generate such results. Me too, honestly.

    Warm Regards,

    A.R.




    2022-01-08 15:07 Somebody

    In a recent response to another poster, you said that you “foresee a big surprise.” Do you know when this big surprise will be disclosed to the public?


    2022-01-08 17:23 Andrea Rossi

    Somebody:

    Moreless

    Warm Regards,

    A.R.

  • This time will be different. He will not get out of it, and a total disaster will ensue.

    About time, really.

    Rossi never needs to get out of anything. He will just start pumping something different, new version, etc.

    The minions will forget all his promises of the past and focus on the next great magnificence.

    He is just amazing how he gets away with it.

    I hope you are right that this time is different, and he gets punished like he deserves, preferably lengthy jail time.

  • Thanks Sam for linking Kaminsky. I can see why you are confused: you do not put information together the same way that we do.


    I can also see that you trust Kaminsky's views over your own, and that he is positive about Rossi.


    Also, I agree with you that Kaminsky is a real expert, he is actually an electrical engineer. From his comments on ECW (possibly from the fact that he continues to pots on ECW) we can see that he is a new example of an ability that Rossi has shown over and over again, and is very proficient in. I can it "expert capture". Ironically, it is easy for Rossi to convince (a few) technical experts who are very focussed on their one area because experts tend to believe people, and if their area looks OK, and no clear deception has happened, then Rossi's evidence can look good.


    Now:

    • I would trust any competent electrical engineer to understand ac power measurements and the issues about RMS vs average.
    • I would trust a good electrical engineer to understand all the issues about spikes and measurement errors in sampling true RMS meters, also 3 phase measurement.
    • I would put no more trust in an EE than in Father Christmas to evaluate Rossi's history with IH: and what that indicates about whether Rossi has a working device. Nor to evaluate whether, in a haphazard collection of wires with multiple power sources only one measured going in, Rossi might have some connection that gets power in that is not measured by the input power meter.
    • Experts are needed when understanding things. But they are are expert in specific areas, and often very non-expert outside of them. You need competent people with common sense and the ability to understand the merits and limits of what experts say to put things together.
    • Some sort of vote where you take experts in different areas, each of which sees only part of the picture, and follow their view just does not give you much insight


    Here is why I would not trust Kaminsky's overall view on Rossi (things where I have enough knowledge and expertise to know him wrong):


    I have no idea what Rossi actually wants, but based on my own experience starting companies and getting screwed, I would guess that what he wants is to have his invention be a success. He was initially enthusiastic about Industrial Heat until he found out that they were trying to use him to raise money for their fund, not really move the technology forward. His early company in Italy was a commercial success until the politicians and mafia changed the laws and put him in prison for tax evasion, causing him to lose his company and the family business. He has talked about the "snakes" attacking him at every turn.

    In order for the invention to be widely adopted, he needs to build a good set of industrial partners that have the marketing and sales channels to widely distribute, install, and maintain the technology. Working with electric utilities would be one way to increase sales quickly. Alternately, working with UPS system manufacturers, like Generac might work. Of course, the upcoming groundswell of electric vehicle manufacturers could use it as well.

    Perhaps the best way to increase distribution it to become a technology licensing organization like the ARM risc group and work in parallel with multiple manufacturers to produce the chips licensed from ARM.


    The lack of context here is that this was exactly what IH wanted to do, and was prepared to pay Rossi very large amounts of money for, using technology completely different from what he now claims, and which Rossi has now dropped. I won't bore everyone here but that sentence sort of proves said technology did not work, and since that was the evolution of all the early Rossi devices we can reasonably deduce that none of them worked.


    Thanks for this thought. I just held a discussion group with the IEEE Madison where I reviewed LENR and Rossi's history. It is quite compelling when you look at all of the supporting research and look at his evolution of the technology. The Industrial Heat trial also exposed a lot of detailed technical data that shows Rossi had reached a milestone.

    The biggest question we collectively raised is why doesn't Rossi "just do it?". Elon Musk was brought up as an example of someone who says "Damn the patents, full speed ahead!" while Rossi seems to be concerned about people stealing his technology. If he really has 100,000 orders at $250, that is $25,000,000 dollars -- he should be able to go to an investment banker to get the up-front capitol to manufacture the device. I doubt that there is much difference in price of components for 100K verses 1M parts.


    It is unlikely that Kaminsky followed the details of the Court case, and related documents, as closely as we did here. His conclusion from that and the aftermath, where as I say Rossi dropped the technology for whose IP he apparently fought tooth and nail like a hot potato, is wrong: I am sure that this mistake informs his current views.


    We might now, in retrospect, collapse the whole "do you think Rossi has got it?" debate into a single test:


    "Did the Lugano devices work?"


    If you say yes to this, then Rossi has the goods. If you say no to this he is a charlatan. A few will say "well they worked a bit", but that is not at all likely, for reasons I'm sure we have discussed to death somewhere.


    Why is that one device so important? It is the only of his devices which has even been tested, over months, by people independent of Rossi wanting it to work.


    The testimony from IH on this was fascinating:


    They tested these devices using Rossi's measuring method. This was written up and persistently supported, even after it was proven wrong, by Levi. As Paradigmnoia will tell you here from his own experiments, or as Clarke has published in a neat informal theoretical analysis of the experiment, fatally flawed.


    IH were initially unaware of the errors in Rossi's measuring, and they believed him and his support staff who helped them. They tested Rossi's devices and showed good (X3) COP for a long time. They only changed their views because of a mistake. They had put a device without fuel in a line with devices that had fuel, for testing. It showed exactly the same COP=3 measurement. IH could not believe this, and retested: but the result was sound.


    IH at that point still expected this was juts some technical glitch. They asked Rossi to help. He refused, as always, saying that his devices worked. IH at that point hired technical help and did independent tests, they quickly discovered that Rossi's Lugano devices did not work.


    It is a compelling story. You have either to believe that IH made the whole thing up. That Paradigmnoia and Clarke were either liars, or somehow both mistaken, or you believe that Rossi's devices up to IH did not work.


    One telling non-technical corroboration of this is the history of Rossi's claimed COP. He started with claims of X30 or so. As he involved the Swedish scientists with Levi, so the testing methods changed and the claimed COP fell, down to X3 in the Lugano device. My explanation would be that as the easy measurement errors were realised (by external testers) - for example ac measurement error from spikes, phase change measurement error due to wet steam, Rossi has to find more subtle (and less effective) errors, like the IR thermometry error on alumina.


    Anyway everyone here (well, not Sam) has followed through this. There is a lot of detail. I am sure Kaminsky has not.


    THH

  • UP is 240 million population while Kerala is 35 million.

    The infection counts in this rapid phase are liable to be a huge underestimate..in both UP and K.. Wait a few weeks and then compare

    Comparing anything between UP and Kerala is difficult for the following reason:


    (1) They have very different age demographics (UP median age 20, Kerala median age 31.9). With no intervention, if everyone catches COVID and all deaths are accurately reported, that is a 4X lower death (and everything else) rate in UP than Kerala.

    (2) UP is mostly underdeveloped, peasant communities, where healthcare, testing, and reporting is much poorer than in Kerala.

    (3) UP has a nationalist local government that has no interest in reliable statistics from towns, independent local observers say the reported statistics are so far away from their knowledge that these must be unreliable.

    (4) With unreliable statistics it is easy for an underdeveloped area like UP to have very serious early waves of COVID stopped only by 70% or more population survivor's immunity. That will then make such an area, ironically, do much better in subsequent waves. So unknown levels of survivor's immunity make comparison even more difficult.


    Kerala may be unreliable as well of course, but I have less evidence of that and you'd expect a more highly developed state to have better functioning healthcare systems and therefore more accurate reporting.


    Anyway these four things make direct comparison very difficult.


    RB - would you like, for the record, to explicitly either agree or disagree with each of these points? I feel (2) is questionable - my evidence comes from local observer reports of a "coughing flu" killing many people in the countryside where this seems likely undiagnosed (due to lack of testing) COVID. The others seem undeniable to me?


    THH


    PS - it is interesting that this comparison - made so many times here, just happens to be between the most developed Indian Province and one of the least developed ones. That makes (1), (2), (4) expected to be as large as possible. Coincidence?

  • Uttar Pradesh (new cases 6401) did meanwhile pass Kerala (5944 new cases)... :(

    Still exponential graph, unfortunately, while Kerala remains more or less flat.


    While I agree UP does not look good this time round, I'm actually going to stick with the comment above that any comparison between the two states is highly unreliable. So much so that only antivaxxers, and those influenced by poor antixaxxer blog arguments, would make them.


    I don't think even RB - who views me as about as unbiassed and reliable as hired PR company, can deny 3 of the points I have made above.


    THH

  • You really must admire Rossi's persistence at self-promotion.


    A possible future job for him where his talents shine would be at the sleazy end of the PR industry. (Where I guess RB thinks I come from. :) Sorry, could not resist it).

  • Kerala has 7x the UP infection per capita rate

    For reasons above comparison is not helpful.


    But just on this narrow point of comparing infection rate alone. A higher or lower infection rate at a given early point of time in the omicron wave tells you nothing except how quickly omicron got seeded in a given country.


    Kerala, being more developed, would be expected to have more international traffic and therefore seed omicron earlier.


    Perhaps RB you would like to let us know whether you agree or disagree with this point - it seems pretty indisputable to me. Maybe your earlier posts are sort of saying you agree?


    THH

  • Top Research Chief for India: Merck’s Molnupiravir has ‘Major Safety Concerns’


    Top Research Chief for India: Merck’s Molnupiravir has ‘Major Safety Concerns’
    With 26 research institutes, India’s ICMR or “Indian Council of Medical Research '' represents one of the largest and oldest apex medical research bodies
    trialsitenews.com


    With 26 research institutes, India’s ICMR or “Indian Council of Medical Research ” represents one of the largest and oldest apex medical research bodies worldwide. Overseeing research in the world’s second most populated nation and, according to some sources, the world’s fifth-largest economy as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), ICMR’s declarations as to the safety and efficacy of various investigational medical products carries considerable weight. Despite India’s drug regulatory body—the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) clearing Merck’s molnupiravir as the first antiviral COVID-19 orally administrated therapy, ICMR Chief Balram Bhargava has declared publicly that his group has “major safety concerns” associated with molnupiravir.


    In a recent press conference, the ICMR chief declared:


    “First of all, the US has approved it based on only 1,433 patients with a three per cent reduction in moderate disease when given in mild cases. However, we have to remember that this drug has major safety concerns.”


    “It can cause teratogenicity and mutagenicity and cause cartilage damage and be damaging to the muscles. More importantly, if given to a man or a woman, contraception will have to be maintained for three months as the child born during that period could have problems with teratogenic influences.”



    Moreover, Bhargava continued “It (Molnupiravir) is not included in the national task force treatment. The WHO has not included it and nor has the UK as of now.”


    Main Concerns: Pregnant Women, Children & More

    As reported in multiple Indian media, including Indian Express, the top doctor for ICMR expressed concerns about molnupiravir’s possibility for side effects, raising risks for pregnant women, lactation, children as well as the possibility of causing soft tissue injuries in a reproductive age cohort.


    Not a Good Drug

    Furthermore, demonstrating more medical freedom, Bhargava went on the national record that the drug’s absolute risk reduction is less than desired, declaring, “Since there was only a three percent reduction in mild to moderate diseases, as of now, the current recommendations stand that it is not a part of the national task force treatment and we have debated on it twice. We will have further debate on it to discuss whether there is any possibility,” he said.


    Background

    Initially developed by a drug development unit within Emory University, the US-based biotechnology company Ridgeback Biotherapeutics licensed the intellectual property and thereafter entered a deal with Merck to co-development and commercialize the investigational product. Merck inked deals with up to 13 generic drug makers to expand use.


    TrialSite reported in Vietnam that Ho Chi Minh City’s public health department set up an actual home care program using this drug before even approved—possibly pushing ethical boundaries


    Anti-Covid pill Molnupiravir has major safety concerns, says ICMR chief
    Balram Bhargava said, “Molnupiravir is not included in the national task force treatment. The WHO has not included it and nor has the UK as of now,” he said.
    indianexpress.com

  • The pH Dependence of Niclosamide Solubility, Dissolution, and Morphology: Motivation for Potentially Universal Mucin-Penetrating Nasal and Throat Sprays for COVID19, its Variants and other Viral Infections


    The pH Dependence of Niclosamide Solubility, Dissolution, and Morphology: Motivation for Potentially Universal Mucin-Penetrating Nasal and Throat Sprays for COVID19, its Variants and other Viral Infections - Pharmaceutical Research
    Motivation With the coronavirus pandemic still raging, prophylactic-nasal and early-treatment throat-sprays could help prevent infection and reduce viral load.…
    link.springer.com


    Abstract

    Motivation

    With the coronavirus pandemic still raging, prophylactic-nasal and early-treatment throat-sprays could help prevent infection and reduce viral load. Niclosamide has the potential to treat a broad-range of viral infections if local bioavailability is optimized as mucin-penetrating solutions that can reach the underlying epithelial cells.


    Experimental

    pH-dependence of supernatant concentrations and dissolution rates of niclosamide were measured in buffered solutions by UV/Vis-spectroscopy for niclosamide from different suppliers (AK Sci and Sigma), as precipitated material, and as cosolvates. Data was compared to predictions from Henderson-Hasselbalch and precipitation-pH models. Optical-microscopy was used to observe the morphologies of original, converted and precipitated niclosamide.


    Results

    Niclosamide from the two suppliers had different polymorphs resulting in different dissolution behavior. Supernatant concentrations of the “AKSci-polymorph” increased with increasing pH, from 2.53μM at pH 3.66 to 300μM at pH 9.2, reaching 703μM at pH 9.63. However, the “Sigma-polymorph” equilibrated to much lower final supernatant concentrations, reflective of more stable polymorphs at each pH. Similarly, when precipitated from supersaturated solution, or as cosolvates, niclosamide also equilibrated to lower final supernatant concentrations. Polymorph equilibration though was avoided by using a solvent-exchange technique to make the solutions.


    Conclusions

    Given niclosamide’s activity as a host cell modulator, optimized niclosamide solutions could represent universal prophylactic nasal and early treatment throat sprays against COVID19, its more contagious variants, and other respiratory viral infections. They are the simplest and potentially most effective formulations from both an efficacy standpoint as well as manufacturing and distribution, (no cold chain). They now just need testing.

  • With 26 research institutes, India’s ICMR or “Indian Council of Medical Research ” represents one of the largest and oldest apex medical research bodies worldwide. Overseeing research in the world’s second most populated nation and, according to some sources, the world’s fifth-largest economy as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), ICMR’s declarations as to the safety and efficacy of various investigational medical products carries considerable weight. Despite India’s drug regulatory body—the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) clearing Merck’s molnupiravir as the first antiviral COVID-19 orally administrated therapy, ICMR Chief Balram Bhargava has declared publicly that his group has “major safety concerns” associated with molnupiravir.


    In a recent press conference, the ICMR chief declared:


    “First of all, the US has approved it based on only 1,433 patients with a three per cent reduction in moderate disease when given in mild cases. However, we have to remember that this drug has major safety concerns.”


    “It can cause teratogenicity and mutagenicity and cause cartilage damage and be damaging to the muscles. More importantly, if given to a man or a woman, contraception will have to be maintained for three months as the child born during that period could have problems with teratogenic influences.”

    Moreover, Bhargava continued “It (Molnupiravir) is not included in the national task force treatment. The WHO has not included it and nor has the UK as of now.”

    For once I agree wholeheartedly with this.


    The evidence for molnupiravir looks flaky in many ways and it has got worse since the initial test results (see statnews). And I'd expect India with large unerdeveloped countryside would find it more difficult to keep conception within these limits than countries like the UK. And even the UK might find it tough...


    The US scientific recommendation was very narrow:


    A panel of experts convened by the Food and Drug Administration voted by a slim margin on Tuesday to recommend the agency authorize the Covid treatment developed by Merck and partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, after a vigorous debate about the risks and benefits of the first oral drug to combat the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

    The FDA is not obligated to follow the advice of the panels it convenes, but it usually does.

    The expert panel voted 13-10 that the pill, called molnupiravir, should be authorized, although members expressed concerns that, if used in pregnancy it could cause birth defects. During the panel, discussions frequently turned to whether or not panelists trusted the effectiveness data on the drug, even when they were discussing other topics.

    “I think we need to stop and acknowledge that the whole reason we’re having this discussion is because the efficacy of this product is not overwhelmingly good,” said W. David Hardy of Charles Drew University School of Medicine and Science during a discussion about the drug’s use during pregnancy. “And I think that makes all of us feel a bit uncomfortable about the fact whether this is an advance therapeutically because it’s an oral medication, not an intravenous medication.”


    THH

  • optimized niclosamide solutions could represent universal prophylactic nasal and early treatment throat sprays against COVID19

    This is one of very many "possible" anti-COVID therapies where reading the reports you get completely unrealistic ideas of what is likely.


    The could be here is one of maybe 20 or more could bes, and very few of them are likely to turn into real working treatments or prophylaxis. I have no idea whether this possibility is better or worse than the others.