I was wrong about Rossi, but what I fear most is that I might be partly right

  • Abd dug up a quote from me, from Lewan's book. It is always good for your soul to reminded how wrong you can be, so I guess I should thank him. The quote is:



    It is painful to admit I was wrong. It worries me that I was so wrong. But what worries me even more is the possibility that I might have been partially right, and Rossi might have something after all. If he does, he may have destroyed any prospect of developing it. He has destroyed his discovery, himself, and his friends such as Lewan with years of irresponsible, outrageous behavior, betrayal, lies, and bad experiments. This would be tragic for mankind. I would spare no sympathy for Rossi. He brought this on himself.

  • I have no idea if AR ever had anything. Who can answer that? But I take you at your word that the 1 year test showed no excess heat. I think that IH would have stuck with AR if it had. Their willingness to walk away from AR after giving him all of that cash is very telling. Investors typically don't walk away from what they consider to be a good investment. So all the believer crowd is left with are conspiracy theories (some initiated by AR himself). IH must have stolen the secret recipe and now they are backing someone else to bring LENR to market and they are screwing over AR. Nope, I don't believe it. It's anyone's right to believe that, but there isn't a shred of evidence other than "Rossi Says" to back up any conspiracy theory along those lines.


    Regardless, I do not believe that AR is on the verge of some new deal with a new partner. Maybe he did a demo for someone. Maybe it was Hydrofusion or someone else. But I highly, highly doubt that any entity would invest a dime in AR at this point without fully scrubbing the ERV report. Even then, they would probably wait until the lawsuit is settled. Who would want to invest in a company with that huge albatross hanging around AR's neck? People can get excited about new ideas and demonstrations, but they aren't going to write a check with that kind of uncertainty. AR isn't even spinning that tale right now. He is on his own again.

  • Jed I hope you realize sooner than later that you're being played by nefarious entities


    My source of information is data from Rossi himself. Data does not lie. I may misinterpret it, but data does not "play" a person. It is objective. That is why science works.


    Rossi thinks the data shows excess heat. So he claims, anyway. I think it does not. It is the same data leading us to two radically different conclusions, so obviously you can't blame the instruments or the data. You cannot say it is "playing" or misleading us. The fault lies in us. One of us is mistaken.

  • It is painful to admit I was wrong. It worries me that I was so wrong. But what worries me even more is the possibility that I might have been partially right, and Rossi might have something after all. If he does, he may have destroyed any prospect of developing it. He has destroyed his discovery, himself, and his friends such as Lewan with years of irresponsible, outrageous behavior, betrayal, lies, and bad experiments. This would be tragic for mankind. I would spare no sympathy for Rossi. He brought this on himself.

    Ah, Jed, cut yourself some slack. You called it as you saw it, then. I was only slightly more reserved, pointing out how difficult it was distinguish between fake fraud (i.e., Rossi's presentation of appearance ) and real fraud pretending to be fake fraud. There was one brief period when I considered the preponderance of the evidence was toward the Rossi Effect being real. Joshua Cude always trots that out. But it was simply a comment on how things looked then, until analysis went deeper.


    The condition to worry about is not being wrong, that easily happens, but attachment to being right. That is where science goes down the drain.


    I do not see Rossi's condition as tragic for mankind. It's tragic for him. There are now many people investigating NiH. There is now a more widespread caution about over-enthusiasm. And the Rossi logjam, that was slowing down other research, has been dynamited, by Rossi himself, by filing the lawsuit. A year ago, I was promoting further basic research with PdD, and I was getting responses that this was all moot, because Rossi. That is not happening any more.


    If Rossi actually does have functioning IP, he has one way forward. Reveal it to IH. That would require setting aside his paranoia, it would require him to become sane. Ah, how compulsive reality can be!


    (Alternate scenario: IH is a bunch of conniving conspirators out to preserve the status quo and their investments in the status quo and to ruin Rossi. However, until Rossi filed the lawsuit, he was free to proceed, unimpeded. He could negotiate with anyone in Europe, for example. One of the largest defects in the Rossi lawsuit is that he has not shown how they harmed him. He alleges supposedly Bad Actions that caused him only imaginary harm.)

  • Fortunately for us here is the judicial process under which everyone will be forced to unload their cards. I'm not sure that will be judged by the court only. Time is working for us in the sense that the race could be coercive effect. We do not know who will be the first to present the greatest invention of all time.


  • My source of information is data from Rossi himself. Data does not lie. I may misinterpret it, but data does not "play" a person. It is objective. That is why science works.


    Rossi thinks the data shows excess heat. So he claims, anyway. I think it does not. It is the same data leading us to two radically different conclusions, so obviously you can't blame the instruments or the data. You cannot say it is "playing" or misleading us. The fault lies in us. One of us is mistaken.


    So Rossi himself gives you data he knows to show failure/cheating, what for, pass as a fraud? or does he believe it's good, and then he's the 100 million dollar IP incompetent inventor who just happened to seduce investors, who themselves are incompetent enough not to check for problems?
    Oh, but then you'll say "IH knew from the beginning or so, they told me so"


    And then we go back to the part where you get played

  • So Rossi himself gives you data he knows to show failure/cheating, what for, pass as a fraud? or does he believe it's good, and then he's the 100 million dollar IP incompetent inventor . . .


    Are you asking me to speculate about why Rossi does what he does? I have no idea. He is inscrutable to me. I cannot imagine what he hoped to accomplish with that test, and that data. It was an abomination.

  • "Jed" wrote:

    My source of information is data from Rossi himself. Data does not lie. I may misinterpret it, but data does not "play" a person. It is objective. That is why science works.Rossi thinks the data shows excess heat. So he claims, anyway. I think it does not. It is the same data leading us to two radically different conclusions, so obviously you can't blame the instruments or the data. You cannot say it is "playing" or misleading us. The fault lies in us. One of us is mistaken.


    I thought you said you got data from IH? I see only two options for you Jed; played or paid ... Your transformation from the honorable rational person being listed at as a speaker on Mats symposium only a few months ago, to the emotional FUD slinger you have become today is sad to see. Why? I still worry that you are actually being threatened. Both Weaver and Zeopfl have it in them.

  • I see only two options for you Jed; played or paid ...


    You cannot judge this until you have a chance to review the ERV data yourself. You have no idea what I know, and what I base my analysis on. You and Peter Gluck are making the same mistake here. This is a technical question. It is about flow rates, temperatures, steam quality and so on. Your messages are exclusively about people, their actions, the motivations you imagine they might have, and your emotional response. This is all irrelevant.


    Suppose I am being paid by I.H. Suppose I am a nefarious secret agent determined to destroy Rossi. That has no bearing on my analysis. You will have examine the data, my analysis, and Rossi's analysis to judge which is right. That is the only way. My motives and my imaginary secret corruption are completely irrelevant. In science you have to put aside consideration of such things, and look at objective facts and physical laws only.

  • "Jed" wrote:

    You have no idea what I know,


    Ahhh, so we're playing poker are we Jed?


    Btw, you have no idea what I know ... see. Not that hard. And based on that information I'm pretty XXXXXXX sure you are played or paid (maybe threatened)

  • Quote

    Your transformation from the honorable rational person being listed at as a speaker on Mats symposium only a few months ago, to the emotional FUD slinger you have become today is sad to see. Why? I still worry that you are actually being threatened.


    Anyone who thinks that Jed Rothwell is anything other than honest, well motivated and other than enthusiastic about anything which could promote cold fusion/LENR either has not followed his activities or is a complete idiot. What I fault him for is his inability to consider that tantalizing and delicious claims for LENR can be fraud and deception or simple errors... that is up to now. He also likes to argue for the sake of argument, IMO, otherwise why bring in Newton and Einstein and Edison alongside a discussion of *yuch!* Rossi?


    My best estimation of Mats Lewan is similar. And both work hard to support LENR. The idea that Jed's new distaste for Rossi is malevolent or profit-seeking is so absurd, only someone with no tie to reality would think it.


    Jed's attitude towards Rossi is disappointment and sadness, I think, that the guy is turning out to be such an obvious slime ball. For some of us, it was obvious much sooner than for others.

  • "Jed" wrote:


    I thought you said you got data from IH? I see only two options for you Jed; played or paid ... Your transformation from the honorable rational person being listed at as a speaker on Mats symposium only a few months ago, to the emotional FUD slinger you have become today is sad to see. Why? I still worry that you are actually being threatened. Both Weaver and Zeopfl have it in them.

    I've known Jed since 2009, though in person only since 2013. Sifferkoll is all over the map, here claiming or suspecting that Jed is being paid in one post, then that he is being threatened in another. I have seen only one threat flying around here. Sifferkoll has been, ah, reminded that he's libelling real people, some of whom might have the means to take action over that, and Dewey is a possible person who might feel he's been injured. I am a subscriber to the private CMNS mailing list. There is no sign of an IH campaign there.


    Now, here, Sifferkoll thinks he has found a contradiction. Aha! Gotcha! In fact, I've been reading Jed fairly carefully, and Jed, when he has talked about private information, has generally refused to say where it came from. To my knowledge, he has never said it came from IH. Anyone can correct that by pointing to a place where he did that. However, he has numerous times claimed that the data he is relying on "came from Rossi." He has not claimed that Rossi gave it to him, and what he says is repeated above. The "data is from Rossi." In fact, what he would have is data given to him by someone who told him it was from Rossi, and he trusts this.


    That's it. There is also information from Rossi that is open, and Jed also refers to that. For example. Rossi acknowledges that the IH expert was not allowed to see the customer area, where the 1 MW of steam was supposedly used.


    I do not assign full trust to any individual in this case, overall, nor should anyone assign full trust to me. Full trust would mean not only an assessment that the person is not lying, but also that they are sane and sober and that their conclusions are sound and likely to be accurate, (which requires being fully informed). However, there are people involved whom I trust to not lie. Mats Lewan is one. Jed is another. And then there are people who are so deranged that "lie" becomes very difficult to distinguish from insanity. These people make outrageous accusations, as if they were fact, based on fantasy and paranoid imagination.

  • Jed, I am becoming so tired of this nonsense, but my high regard for you and your contribution to LENR forces me to flag the illogic of your position. Please clarify...


    If the ERV report was used by IH as proof of performance to solicit 250 million for the E-Cat, how can you state the ERV report shows no energy gain for the E-Cat during an entire year of operation?

  • If the ERV report was used by IH as proof of performance to solicit 250 million for the E-Cat, how can you state the ERV report shows no energy gain for the E-Cat during an entire year of operation?


    Who told you the ERV report was used by IH to solicit $250 million? Where did you get that information? I doubt it is true.


    Anyway, I assert that the ERV results show no energy gain for technical reasons. My assertion has nothing to do with anyone soliciting $250 million, and I know nothing about that. I say it produces no heat because the instruments were unsuitable and the measurements were flawed, as I.H. said in the Motion to Dismiss. That would be my conclusion even if I knew for a fact that I.H. used the results to solicit $250 million.

  • What I fault him for is his inability to consider that tantalizing and delicious claims for LENR can be fraud and deception or simple errors...


    Oh come now. I am not such a babe in the woods. As for simple (and complex) errors, I have made so many myself that I would never dismiss the likelihood of that.


    Jed's attitude towards Rossi is disappointment and sadness, I think, that the guy is turning out to be such an obvious slime ball. For some of us, it was obvious much sooner than for others.


    Oh come now again. I have said countless times that I do not trust Rossi as far as I can throw him. Yes, I am disappointed, but not so surprised. But again, here is what you fail to understand: The world is full of odious, thieving, slimeball people who also happen to be brilliant, and who make tremendously important new technology, or science, art, movies and so on. People are complicated. Multidimensional. Edison was a genius and one of the most prolific inventors in history, but he was also a sharp dealer who never paid his bills if he could avoid it. Steve Jobs cheated Woz, and he was a notorious jerk and manipulator. Many people despised him. But no one denies he accomplished great things.


    IMO, otherwise why bring in Newton and Einstein and Edison alongside a discussion of *yuch!* Rossi?


    Einstein was a womanizer who abandoned his children. He was not a nice person, despite his public persona. He treated his second wife like a servant, by some accounts. (She was his cousin. She knew him a long time, so I guess she was used to it.)


    You oversimplify and miss the point when you try to judge people by one character trait. You deal in stereotypes -- a person is all good, or all bad, with no shades of gray, and no mix of qualities. I think this blinds you to the reality of what many people are like.

  • Regardless, I do not believe that AR is on the verge of some new deal with a new partner. Maybe he did a demo for someone. Maybe it was Hydrofusion or someone else. But I highly, highly doubt that any entity would invest a dime in AR at this point without fully scrubbing the ERV report.


    You have too much faith in people acting rationally. As we see amply on this forum, people are often driven by hopes, fears and dreams, and they allow these things to cloud their judgment.

  • And yet, they forthwith invested vast sums into IH anyway?


    Every investment has calculated risk...especially those in fringe arenas such as alternative energy...plus there aren't exactly many alternatives out there boasting unheard of COP numbers as the good doctor did. He hangs a fine carrot from that stick he does...

  • "Maaary" wrote:

    Anyone who thinks that Jed Rothwell is anything other than honest, well motivated and other than enthusiastic about anything which could promote cold fusion/LENR either has not followed his activities or is a complete idiot.


    I covered that in the played scenario, which I hold as most likely. He's been shown manipulated/fabricated/unrelated information that he believs says something it doesn't This is aslo cheaper for IH, since they then don't need to pay him. The real ERV report shows COP~50 and requires some kind of unbelievable conspiracy theory to be stated as fraudulent (as Mats said, who obviously have better information on the issue)

  • As to the question what Rossi is up to now, I think it’s worth noticing that when he divorced Defkalion he was all over the place for quite some time, a leading keyboard warrier. One aspect that disturbed him in particular was the fact that Defkalion claimed they could make its own ecats, a claim that we now confidently can say was incorrect. Rossi seems to be more laid-back about the break up with IH. At the same time he makes a particular point of that IH (according to him) can and have made own working ecats, which IH on the other hand denies. You would think IH’s alleged capability would upset him but it doesn’t.
     
    The difference in Rossi’s reaction surely stands for something. The easiest explanation is that IH in the meantime wired him MUSD 11 so he is simply better off. However, my guess is that has closed or feels confident about closing a deal will someone else and this deal in unaffected by what IH can or cannot do in its licensed territory on its own.

  • "Zuffhaus" wrote:

    You would think IH’s alleged capability would upset him but it doesn’t.


    He also holds the quarkx knowledge (wich obviously works showing ionized nitrogen halo on a 0.5W feed ...), which more or less makes older E-cat versions worthless in comparison. I hold this as one probable cause of IH not paying. Or it is a least a reason for Rossi to being able to show IH the finger and file the complaint ... He doesn't care about the $89M, only about the IP and R&D control.

  • Jef, You seem to start this thread as a final testament. I know you have your own insight and disappointments after so long history with the topic, but should we still wait for independent parties to write final chapter on this. When weighting this I always remind my self how high the stakes are, and it can cause strange things in so many levels.


    If your insight is right, Rossi will disappear for ever. No way he can continue after this amount of publicity and awarenes among so many people. On positive side in that case, he has caused good rise on awareness of LENR there is no deny on that. Harm gets smaller if some other researcher gets real verifiable results with his/her receipe. For example Mr Fojt seems to be serious, Parkhamov, me356, MFMP they might never had tried without Rossi.


    On the Other hand if Rossi or anybody else has something, I think many things will be forgiven since impact for everyones life will be so high.


    Some people thinks that you or Mats can be blamed, but in my mind you both had the reasons. You in the beginning believed what you saw with high hopes. After getting other insight your mind changed. What there is to blame? You followed your own best understanding at any point of time. What is better way to live life?


    I see pretty same with Mats, he witnessed with his own eyes the first experiments that seemed convincing. He wrote good book about history of Rossi effect. Later when people started furious attacks in his blog, he was feed his insights (electricity bill, personal visitor witnesses and we don't even know what else). Now people say that he was too balanced 'leaning towards Rossi side'. I want to strongly disagree, he maybe defended Rossi but propably he had that time more reasons to do so than we know. What would you do if you think that you got insight to prove that there are big powers that wants bury LENR from the world - no matter are you journalist, judge or layman. I have seen people knowingly fall down from good position to save poor individual who wouldn't have been able to defend himself alone. If your life or Mats journalist career is affected, I say fuck the sanctimonious.


    No matter what follows in this saga, and in case we get rel verifiable LENR results from some research, i hope you continue to follow and report them for the good of us rest. I really hope my instinct is right and Mats is preparing new book. It would be good someone somehow wrap up last 12 months after court has given a verdict. So after Mats symposium 2017, we can sit with You, Dewey, Abd, Axil, Sifferkoll, Shane D, Thomas C, younameit in terasse in Stockholm warm sunset with cold pint of beer reading each others name/nick tags and tapping eachothers in sholder like veterans after war :)

  • Argon - the heck with that. Let's party on Planet Rossi after the war is over. If Rossi wins then you can arrange for some QX Rossimobiles, made by the new partner, to make the shuttle run and we'll go hang with the R'miester himself and tell war stories. I'm insisting that Renzz be included or I'm not coming.

  • Argon - the heck with that. Let's party on Planet Rossi after the war is over. If Rossi wins then you can arrange for some QX Rossimobiles, made by the new partner, to make the shuttle run and we'll go hang with the R'miester himself and tell war stories. I'm insisting that Renzz be included or I'm not coming.


    Picture this with me guys....it's midnight on Planet Rossi...cool breeze...both moons are full...you know the scene. We are sitting around a QX Inverted turbine space campfire...wide eyed space campers just waiting for the good Doctor to start spinning his tales of war, fortune invention and wonderment. =pan camera low just behind the campfire= You can see blue QX flames reflecting on our faces as we wait with s'mores in hand and ears wide open. The good Doctor looks up at the moons...chuckles a bit as we all know he is one of the most heartful gentle men you would ever meet...and turns to his audience around the fire. "Oah-kay-ah little ones...I-ah tell-ah you-ah a tale about ah dragon...ah beeg-ah dragon I-ah created before I invent QX...it-ah was-ah cold-ah winters night-ah....." Well you kids know the rest. I wouldn't miss that trip for the WORLD Dewey!!!