Interesting lectures dealing with disruptive technologies.

  • Interesting lectures dealing with disruptive technologies.

    Why Exxon patented the lithium battery in the 1970. And how the technology took off 20 years later when the patent expired. (1990)

    Why Tesla Model 3 changing car market?
    Good examples of Kodak.

    Leasing bubble> very soon
    Petrol and diesel vehicles Bubble> soon
    Automation bubble> 2025


    Publicerades den 27 juni 2016
    Julian started off his talk highlighting some fun facts regarding and defining technology disruptions, which he notes have always happened within the lifetime of one person and almost always happened with 20–30 years. Julian touched on the story of Kodak as one of many famous examples of a large company shooting itself in the foot by inventing the technology that went on to kill the company -- with forward-looking implications for the GM EV1 and the Exxon invention of the lithium battery.

    Regarding electric vehicles, Julian notes that Chevron bought the patents for the nickel-metal-hydride battery used in the GM EV1 and then stuck it on a dusty shelf to prevent progress. But something less well known is that ExxonMobil invented the lithium battery, in the 1970s. The exact chemistry for ExxonMobil's battery was not really suited for production, but the company patented the lithium battery anyway … and that patent didn't expire until the year 2000. After the patent expired, of course, is when commercial lithium-ion batteries enabled lower-cost and more-practical portable electronics like cell phones and laptops to take off. Julian also talked about other developments in the battery space, such as research that discovered how to make them rechargable, that was also critical.

    That essentially led into a discussion of whether the Tesla Model 3 was a better and cheaper vehicle than any ICE car. For that, Julian compared the base Model 3 to the similarly priced and performing BMW 328i in numerous ways. For this segment of the presentation, I think you should just watch, starting at 12:10 in.

  • Li batteries developed not despite exxon, but because of the challenges of mobile phones.
    I've seen in the electronic databook the impact of that revolution in the 90s, and initially everybody was using NiCd, then NiMH, but quickly Li-Ion took over because it was not losing charge in few weeks.
    I don't know really about telephone, I've seen it in power conversion ICs.
    maybe nobody really sold NiMH phones, but the circuits were designed for NiCd/NiMH, and quickly it was full of Li-Ion circuits.

    the idea of Tesla with his car, is shocking for some, target the very rich, and use small consumer batteries assembled in big units.

    note that about patent often the compnies don't block them, that would loveto license it, but when it is not your business you often don't use it yourself.
    and beside that most companies refuse to license the patent of another company if they are not forced...
    you don't pile up risks, like disrupting your market, riskin technology failure, and depending on someone else.

    this is why many people say Patent are required but at the same time slowing innovation.
    no patent prevent research, and patent prevent développement.

    modern solution is open innovation, where big corps delegate to tiny partners to innovate, not putting the burden of their conservatism and methods on them. It is a bit like the Dirty Dozen.

  • For me the most interesting part of his talk was the discussion of the 'Vehicle Leasing Bubble' . This is something I have been wondering about for some time. More and more people are leasing IC engine cars, and to finance these manufacturer-sponsored lease deals has involved the creation of a huge number of bonds. These enable the manufacturers to get money 'up front' when you lease a car, the bond-holders get their reward by collecting the lease payments and from the sale of ex-lease vehicles. There are variations and derivatives of these schemes, but basically they are all the same.

    The leasing bond market is absolutely huge and growing fast, it may soon exceed 0.5Tn USD globally.

    When/If electric cars become practical and affordable, these bonds will effectively collapse, since there would be no 'after-market' which would enable the bond-holders to recover their capital input. Already millions of ex-lease cars are being shipped to developing world countries to sustain the business model. A workable and affordable electric car would kill the whole market. As the speaker says, this is another sub-prime mortgage bubble that will inevitably burst.