Experimental evidence to date for He / excess heat correlation in LENR experiments to have nuclear mechanism

  • Quote from Abd

    Thanks. There is work that created helium above ambient. A clean example is Apicella et al, 2005. Three cells. Ambient helium was not excluded, so what they were measuring was elevation above ambient. (Krivit completely misunderstood this in attacking Violante). The helium measurements showed correlation. One of these included anodic stripping and produced a result very close to the theoretical value, it was actually "on the money," but ... this cell had the lowest heat and lowest helium so the error bars are large (I think about 20%). The others did not have anodic stripping and showed roughly, off the top of my head, about 60% helium release on the assumption of 24 MeV/4He. This experiment did not generate all that much heat, but I think it had a very small headspace, so a little helium raised the levels substantially.Most experiments had much more headspace, so raising helium levels above ambient would be difficult.It is not necessary, in fact. Key is the correlation across many experiments. Leakage is extremely unlikely to somehow create the 23.8 MeV/4He numbers. Yes, ambient helium should always be measured, but Miles was able to show that leakage was not experimentally significant. His lab, in fact, had almost double the natural helium, from what else was going on there. It's an obvious place to consider possible artifacts. Miles handled this with controls, for the most part. Leakage should not depend on the presence or absence of the excess energy. (And, no, experiments with excess heat are not significantly hotter than those with it, and in some cases, they are at the same temperature by design.)


    I'll check Apicella et al and get back to you.


    on your other comments - you I think have not excluded the "data selection" argument, and have perhaps misunderstood the "leakage vs excess heat mundane correlation argument.


    Data selection: yes this can generate roughly the expected results. We'd need a much more subtle analysis to determine whether the precise figure was coincidental, and also be careful about cherry picking etc in getting it. We could explore further that assertion if you wish.


    Excess heat vs He correlation. The issue is that artifactual excess heat for a given cell will in most experiments correlate precisely with time, as will artifactual He content due to leakage if ambient level is high enough. These two correlations lead to a beautifully precise (for one cell) He/excess heat correlation.


    So any one experiment can be considered fully (which I've promissed to do with Apicella if you stay to discuss it - it will take maybe 24 hours because I've other commitments. Trying to amalgamate results across different experiments is problematic because of potential selection artifacts. I think you'd need to state precisely how you were doing this amalgamation, and we could then check all of the rather complex issues.


    More generally, all of this analysis is sort of unnecessary - because a new good experiment could possibly provide better data than all previous.

  • Just one point here - from what you say of Apicelli I'd want to see how they measured ambient and whether the apparatus might be exposed to higher levels ambient than that measured. Given active He sources in labs you cannot I believe assume well-mixed or temporally stable values of ambient He. Perhaps you could reassure me of that before I start?

  • For a 'quick' primer on how Miles (not Apicelli) tried to exclude errors in his He data, check this out:


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  • GH - I'd like to stick to one experiment. There are multiple mechanisms here as I indicated on the other thread so the fact that one experiment excludes leakage does not help another. Do you consider Miles's results more significant than Apicelli's?

  • I need to read Apicelli. The Miles video runs through several interesting strategies for improving accuracy, maybe it's better seen as background material though; It seems a reasonable assumption that they could be affected by similar potential sources of error.

  • It is Apicella (sorry):
    Some recent results at ENEA M. Apicella, E. Castagna, L. Capobianco, L. D'Aulerio, G. Mazzitelli, F. Sarto, A. Rosada, E. Santoro, V. Violante, M. McKubre, F. Tanzella and C. Sibilia
    12th ICCF proceedings pp117-133


    Abd will say if i've got this wrong no doubt - it is more effort than you'd think to locate "Apicella 2005".


    Now I've just got to find the proceedings in full...


    Got it! thank you Jed.


    http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/ApicellaMsomerecent.pdf

  • So any one experiment can be considered fully (which I've promissed to do with Apicella if you stay to discuss it - it will take maybe 24 hours because I've other commitments. Trying to amalgamate results across different experiments is problematic because of potential selection artifacts. I think you'd need to state precisely how you were doing this amalgamation, and we could then check all of the rather complex issues.


    It is nice of You ( in sight that You were a hard core denier of LENR ) to open an new thread about a theme, which for LENR knowledgables is since years no longer a discussion.


    I just place a repost I made (for kirki) some weeks ago, about the best documented actual experiment setup.


    Repopst:
    Because You missed the last ten years I link it again (third time...).


    Here one of the Stringhams papers: iscmns.org/CMNS/JCMNS-Vol15.pdf#page=62


    Bdw.:
    The He/LENR heat rate compliance has been proven already in 1992 at
    NRL... Recently Stringham counted the bubble-holes with a very high
    coincidence!


    And please, don't believe that he counted the cavitation holes...

  • Everyone it seems has their favourite setup. I'm interested in Abd's statements here because this (the He stuff) he has definitely studied. As for excess heat, again everyone has their favourite experiment. Too many to look at all.


    If "for LENR knowledgables" the certainty of LENR is no longer a discussion then that is fine but it is a niche view not held by anyone outside that world. Any sensible LENR person would want to engage where possible with external critiques - assuming what others don't is no way to do that.

  • I'm interested in Abd's statements here because this (the He stuff) he has definitely studied.


    Did You ever think about why ABD each time presents the same outdated paper?


    It is obvious: It allows to discuss the pro's and con's. The Stringham experiments (run for 20 years with support of NRL) are more than clear, as they
    fix the facts: Energy produced = heat = amount of He measured.


    If You too like to start a new pseudo-discussion, then I will not hinder You and ABD to run Your thread with warmed up FUD.


    Once more: Here a recent Stringham paper: iscmns.org/CMNS/JCMNS-Vol15.pdf#page=62

  • Quote

    Did You ever think about why ABD each time presents the same outdated paper?It is obvious: It allows to discuss the pro's and con's.


    Well I don't understand that. Abd has made a strong statement, and if he deliberately presents bad evidence when asked for this it is just weird. Sorry.


    I'll let you and Abd sort out what paper has strong He evidence. It does not help to say "20 year's work". All that is needed is one good and well recorded experiment (which presumably would be at the end of the 20 years).

  • Abd will say if i've got this wrong no doubt - it is more effort than you'd think to locate "Apicella 2005".


    Sorry. Much of what I'm writing here is off the top of my head. I recommend starting with my heat/helium paper in Current Science, because everything there is sourced, when possible with links. Some sources are not available for free, unfortunately, but you can ask me for a copy. http://www.currentscience.ac.in/Volumes/108/04/0574.pdf


    That paper refers to Storms' two books, with the most recent having the largest compendium of related experiments.


    When looking for LENR papers, I always go to the Library at lenr-canr.org and search the bibliography. I think of this work as being done by Violante, and my discussions of it were with Violante, but the work is cited as Apicella et al (2005) because that is listed. If you look for Apicella on lenr-canr.org, you will see three papers. Two are from 2005, and they are really two versions of the same report. The later one had the note added to the plot of results about anodic erosion, which was the only hint. So I eventually asked Violante and he confirmed an hour of reverse electrolysis at full current (which is very significant, McKubre used less).


    If you come in as a genuine skeptic, you can make serious contributions. Do realize, though, that this field, being not understood, is essentially a huge body of data to grasp. Few have read all of it. I certainly haven't. Storms probably has, and Rothwell has certainly seen a lot, over a longer period of time than I've been involved. Respect these people. And don't fall over dead. They make mistakes and sometimes don't understand things. We all do this.

  • I'll let you and Abd sort out what paper has strong He evidence. It does not help to say "20 year's work". All that is needed is one good and well recorded experiment (which presumably would be at the end of the 20 years).


    Miles' work is the foundation of heat/helium and it was published more than twenty years ago. Miles has recently been videoed by Ruby Carat, the gem who runs Cold Fusion Now, explaining his work. There were a number of SRI reports involving heat and helium, all done before 2000. Some were thoroughly documented, some not. The Case replication which did such mischief in the 2004 U.S. DoE review (because it was misread) wasa never itself formally published, but charts from that have been widely used. McKubre has agreed to dust that off -- it was a report to a government agency -- and publish it, but it hasn't happened yet, and this is, again, before 2000. Apicella et al was 2004 or 2005. Stringham's work is also old. I find his most recent paper very difficult to follow.


    There are gems out there, awaiting someone to discover and show them. Until I did it, nobody had noted that Takahashi's' four-deuteron fusion proposal is actually two deuterium molecules in confinement. (This is not plasma fusion, the opposite. super cold.) If this is happened at a catalytic surface, it is not the super-coincidence that casual skeptics imagine. But there is no calculation of the actual rate of occurrence of the structure Takahashi reports, only his quantum field theory analysis of the collapse process and a prediction of 100% fusion to 8Be in a femtosecond after collapse. There are difficulties. Typical of all cold fusion theories.


    My decision, about six years ago, was that this field was worth the effort it takes to become familiar with it. The field needs informed skeptics, they are hard to come by. Science needs skepticism.

  • About the power of correlation, I highly recommend taking a look at this fascinating page of spurious correlations, including:

    • US spending on science, space and technology vs. Suicides by hanging, strangulation and suffocation
    • Per capita cheese consumption vs. Number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets
    • Age of Miss America vs. Murders by steam, hot vapors and hot objects
    • Worldwide non-commercial space launches vs. Sociology doctorates awarded (US)
    • and several more.

    I like correlation, and in the context of heat and helium, it is an interesting finding. But on its own it is only a suggestive piece of information.

  • A rigorously-done set of heat/helium determinations by more than one reputable laboratory, published in a major journal, will transform the field,


    This has already been done and the field was not transformed. The reason is fairly obvious. In order to demonstrate a novel nuclear phenomenon to nuclear scientists you need to present nuclear evidence. The nuclear scientists expected such observations as tritium, nueutrons, gammas etc. This is what they are experts in evaluating. Helium and calorimetry may appear convincing to chemists.


    Helium is a poor choice of product to investigate. Firstly it has not been possible to demonstrate any anomalous isotopic ratios (e.g. a nuclear effect). Secondly there is helium in the air (and everywhere) as a possible source of contamination. Thirdly these experiments are expensive.


    Trying to demonstrate a particular Q/4He ratio is not a scientific approach. If you are only looking for one result sooner or later you will find it. Instead scientists should investigate with an open mind. They should try to prove themselves wrong.


    So my advice would be to replicate experiments which produce radio-activity but instrument them properly so the products and reactions can be identified. It's all very well finding helium, but it is such a common product that we know nothing about its origin.

  • Quote from Abd Ul-Rahman Lomax: “A rigorously-done set of heat/helium determinations by more than one reputable laboratory, published in a major journal, will transform the field,”
    ......So my advice would be to replicate experiments which produce radio-activity but instrument them properly so the products and reactions can be identified...…


    Radiation measurements of e-cats were examined several times in by an expert from Bologna University, David Bianchini, who found no radiation above background level. Following your logic, can we conclude there is no LENR in ecats?

  • Radiation measurements of e-cats were examined several times in by an expert from Bologna University, David Bianchini, who found no radiation above background level. Following your logic, can we conclude there is no LENR in ecats?


    You are surely aware that many nuclear reactions produce penetrating radiation at all. Some have been reported in the LENR literature. And some of those reported reactions are predicted by theory. And the same theory predicts heat but little penetrating radiation from Ni/H or Pd/D systems. I'm not talking about a few events slightly above background but millions of actual counts.


    So Bianchini did not detect anything. What did he expect? Did he have some model to verify? Did he try to detect radiation inside the cell? Or did he limit himself to external gamma measurements? It's this sort of dubious experimentation that gives LENR a bad name.


    If Rossi finds gammas, there will be all sorts of regulatory problems for commercialization. In fact at the January 2011 demonstration Rossi prevented Francesco Celani from making gamma measurements. Why did he do this? Do you think Rossi et al. really want to detect radiation?


    BTW David Bianchini according to LinkedIn is an "Assegnista di ricerca presso Dipartimento di Medicina University of Bologna". Does that make him an expert?

    • Official Post

    So Bianchini did not detect anything. What did he expect? Did he have some model to verify? Did he try to detect radiation inside the cell? Or did he limit himself to external gamma measurements? It's this sort of dubious experimentation that gives LENR a bad name.


    Bianchini used a whole heap of different particle detection methods during early experiments at Bologna Uni. Anything detectable he should have seen it. It's all there in the literature somewhere, Obviously everything was measured outside the ecat itself - a bit too warm in there to measure radiation - but I am told that Bianchini has considerable expertise in this particular area (radiation safety) , and was asked by the Uni to check for radiation because of 'health and safety' concerns.


    BTW- PLEASE KEEP THIS THREAD POINTING HELIUM-WARDS AND ON TOPIC

  • So my advice would be to replicate experiments which produce radio-activity but instrument them properly so the products and reactions can be identified.


    I posted the paper which explains everything.., which is actual (ongoing work presented last ICCF..)


    But I guess, nobody here is above college level and ready to read the Stringham paper(s) or people dont' like definitive facts...

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