The Scientific Alliance : LENR may have much more potential than is generally realised

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    A small article published by an Organization i don't know... The Scientific Alliance


    The Scientific Alliance is a non-profit membership-based organisation bringing together both scientists and non-scientists committed to rational discussion and debate on the challenges facing the environment today.To read about our current campaigns, please click on any of the links above. These will lead you to our campaign information, articles, news, press releases and comments areas.


    Maybe some reader may help us.


  • I'm pretty sure, mainstream scientists are already aware of significance of cold fusion as well. They're just engaged in alternative research of various methods of energy production/conversion/transport or storage (from hot fusion over wind/solar plants to nuclear and batteries), which would all become useless as a whole after wide introduction of cold fusion. So that all these people have a good reason to ignored the cold fusion research as a single man. Not to say about physical theorists, who got already rendered incompetent by their neverending objections of cold fusion. So that the ignorance of LENR is merely a manifestation of Galieo syndrome, rather than pluralistic ignorance today.

  • Despite the enormous sums continuing to be invested in wind and solar farms, any objective assessment of the current state of renewable energy technologies must conclude that they cannot by themselves provide the major part of our energy needs.


    That is incorrect. Wind energy in the U.S. could supply 9 times more electricity than we now consume. Solar energy in the Mojave desert, or a small part of the Sahara, could supply all of the energy in the world. Using present technology, wind turbines in North Dakota could be used to make synthetic fuel or hydrogen gas. The energy in this flow of synthetic fuel would be greater than the energy in all of the oil being pumped in the Middle East. With wind from South Dakota, Texas and a few other states, the U.S. could supply all of the liquid fuel on earth. Offshore turbines in the North Sea could produce about 4 times more electricity than Europe consumes. Energy storage would be a problem but there are various ways to deal with it.


    We do not implement these methods because they are more expensive than present day energy. Not prohibitively expensive, but in the early stages synthetic liquid fuel would cost more than gasoline. On the other hand, they are only more expensive if you ignore the cost of pollution, people killed by particulates, and global warming. They would be cheaper if you include these costs. For example, in the U.S. coal smoke kills roughly 20,000 people per year. The power companies pay nothing for this, so they do not take the cost into account. These are poor people from rural areas, so they do not sue the power companies. If a corporation killed 20,000 middle class or wealthy people it would be forced to pay hundreds of billions in damages and it would be put out of business overnight, the way nuclear power was shut down in Japan after the Fukushima reactor disaster. Almost all nuclear plants were shut down in Japan, and I doubt many will ever restart.

  • /* Wind energy in the U.S. could supply 9 times more electricity than we now consume */


    But we couldn't afford it, because the full replacement of coal + oil production with wind energy would consume 9 times more electricity than we now consume. The so-called "renewables" and "green-solutions" just convert the fossil-fuel crisis into raw source crisis. As this article point outs clearly, a shift to renewable energy will just replace one non-renewable resource (fossil fuel) with another (metals and minerals). Right now wind and solar energy meet only about 1 percent of global demand; hydroelectricity meets about 7 percent. For example, to match the power generated by fossil fuels or nuclear power stations, the construction of solar energy farms and wind turbines will gobble up 15 times more concrete, 90 times more aluminum and 50 times more iron, copper and glass than we are consuming right now (note that concrete production already consumes 2% of total world energy production).


    The problem is, the renewable energy needs copper, steel, aluminium, indium, neodymium, glass and concrete. If the contribution from wind turbines and solar energy to global energy production is to rise from the current 400 TWh to 12,000 TWh in 2035 and 25,000 TWh in 2050, as projected by the World Wide Fund for Nature, about 3,200 million tonnes of steel, 310 million tonnes of aluminium and 40 million tonnes of copper will be required to build the latest generations of wind and solar facilities. This corresponds to a 5 to 18% annual increase in the global production of these metals for the next 40 years. Most of indium is consumed with solar cell industry - but we have reserves of indium to the next fifteen years only. This is not how the sustainable evolution is supposed to look like... Also, the wind turbines only work when there’s wind - although not too much - and the solar panels only work during the day and then only when it's not cloudy, so we need backup over night and during winter. Other than that, alternative energy is perfect for everyone, who cannot calculate. And this applies just to mainstream scientists, who are otherwise so proud of their ability to calculate everything.



    And 25,000 TWh is still just one sixth of the total world energy consumption. It's evident, the cold fusion is not the alternative, it's actually the only one possible option of the energetic future of human civilization. The faster we will implement it, the better.

  • /* Wind energy in the U.S. could supply 9 times more electricity than we now consume */


    But we couldn't afford it, because the full replacement of coal + oil production with wind energy would consume 9 times more electricity than we now consume. The so-called "renewables" and "green-solutions" just convert the fossil-fuel crisis into raw source crisis.


    I said wind could produce 9 times more electricity than we consume. Just electricity, not total energy. Oil is used for transportation only, so it is not included in this estimate. It would not be replaced, fully or partly. It would have to continue as it is now. Natural gas is used to generate electricity, so it would be affected, but it is also used for space heating, which is not part of the equation.


    I also mentioned synthetic fuel production from wind. That's a different story, and a different set of economics. That would be expensive at first.


    Right now wind and solar energy meet only about 1 percent of global demand


    They are 7% in the U.S. which is a better comparison. Nuclear is 20%, coal 33% (now -- used to be higher). Wind and solar could achieve parity with nuclear power in 10 years. Here is the breakdown by source for 2015:


    https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3


    Wind and solar are way up in 2016.


    the construction of solar energy farms and wind turbines will gobble up 15 times more concrete, 90 times more aluminum and 50 times more iron, copper and glass.


    I do not think so. The energy payback time, and the dollar payback time, for wind turbines is about 6 months. Gas fired electricity is about the same. This is better than coal and way better than nuclear power. If it used 90 times more materials, that would not be possible.


    Also, I doubt this analysis takes into account the materials needed for gas pipelines, coal mines and railroads shipping coal. I have seen similar analyses that left out these factors. Wind turbines need the power distribution infrastructure, but so does coal, gas or nuclear power, so that's a wash. Rooftop solar production needs no infrastructure. This could produce about 1/3 of all electricity in the U.S. More in places like Japan. Unlike wind, solar electricity peaks with demand in most of the U.S. You need to turn off a large chunk of electric power generation at night anyway, so solar works out well.


    In parts of Texas there is now so much wind power, some power companies offer consumers zero-cost electricity at night. They want people to do their laundry at night, to shift demand. See:


    http://freenights.txu.com/


    Needless to say, despite the potential of alternative energy, I am strongly in favor of replacing all sources of energy with cold fusion. It would be far cheaper than any other source, for the reasons I described in my ICCF20 paper:


    http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJcoldfusionb.pdf

  • /* They are 7% in the U.S. which is a better comparison. Nuclear is 20%, coal 30% (now). Wind and solar could achieve parity with nuclear power in 10 years. */



    Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago... Draw me unimpressed with your prediction.


    /* In parts of Texas there is now so much wind power, some power companies offer consumers zero-cost electricity at night. They want people to do their laundry at night, to shift demand. */


    Both wind/solar, both nuclear destabilize the grid and need backup (which also needs investment and consumes energy).

  • Wind and solar could achieve parity with nuclear power in 10 years. */



    Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago... Draw me unimpressed with your prediction.


    I was not talking about the global mix. I said in the U.S. it is 7% and it could reach 20%. That would be technically easy. Whether we do it or not depends on politics, which cannot be predicted. If Trump wins, we will not.


    Worldwide use of fossil fuels has declined somewhat as a percent of the total. In 1973 it was 87%. It is now 81% (as you said). See p. 6:


    https://www.iea.org/publicatio…lication/KeyWorld2016.pdf


    Both wind/solar, both nuclear destabilize the grid and need backup (which also needs investment and consumes energy).


    All energy sources need backup. Nuclear plants need the most, because they are large. When a nuclear reactor is turned off for maintenance or SCRAM, you lose 1 or 2 GW of power instantaneously. They are SCRAMed more often than you might think. The NRC keeps records of the events. They happen several times a year to many plants. They are mostly caused by plumbing problems. Such as a storm at sea that clogs the cooling water inlet pipe with seaweed. It can take days to bring the plants back on line, so you need backup. Other generator types are more modular. Gas turbines plants are physically divided allowing you to turn off one turbine at at time for maintenance. Wind turbines are 1 or 2 MW each in a 100 MW array, so turning them off for maintenance has no effect. PV solar does not need maintenance (effectively).


    Wind turbines stop for lack of wind. But, on a continental scale, the wind always blows somewhere. The sun heats the air and it has to go somewhere. If not Texas, then North Dakota or Kansas. So, with a large enough grid, total wind power is stable and predictable. Furthermore, with today's improved weather forecasts, operators know when there will be a drop off in wind, or a lot of wind. They can tell about a week ahead of time. When they know there will be a drop off, they schedule wind turbine maintenance. When they know there will be a lot of wind, they schedule coal or nuclear power plant maintenance.

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    If the contribution from wind turbines and solar energy to global energy production is to rise from the current 400 TWh to 12,000 TWh in 2035 and 25,000 TWh in 2050, as projected by the World Wide Fund for Nature, about 3,200 million tonnes of steel, 310 million tonnes of aluminium and 40 million tonnes of copper will be required to build the latest generations of wind and solar facilities.


    These are some really strange figures. Even if demand for electricity rises 30X over the next 20 years lets look at them a little closer. You are talking about 3,550M tons of metal (excluding concrete) to build the installations. This suggests that we would end up with 100M 35.5 ton (metal parts only) generators of various kinds. Which seems quite a lot- especially as solar panels are using less and less metal. And IF each of those generators produced (for arguments sake) 1MW, we would get.....?


    You do the sums.

  • The sun heats the air and it has to go somewhere. If not Texas, then North Dakota or Kansas. So, with a large enough grid, total wind power is stable and predictable.


    Texas, the Dakotas and Kansas is where it goes. Wind is not distributed evenly in North America. It is concentrated in the middle of the continent. See the maps here:


    http://www.nrel.gov/gis/wind.html


    This is a good thing. It means we get high persistent wind in a few places, and these are ideal locations for wind turbines. Whereas places such as Georgia have practically no wind. There is a giant river of wind similar to the Mississippi river of water, both in the middle of the continent.


    In Europe, there is a similar concentration of wind in the North Sea, which -- conveniently -- is shallow. So shallow that some ships that sink miles away from shore stick out of the water. The North Sea is also convenient because it is closer to population centers than North Dakota is, and because nobody owns it. Years ago, it was estimated that the wind in the North Sea could produce 4 times the electricity consumed in Europe. It is probably more, now, because the average tower is much higher, and the blades longer.


    All of this does not mean that wind electricity is cheap. It may remain more expensive than coal for a long time. Mainly because power companies do not pay for the mayhem and slaughter caused by coal. Wind electricity may never be cheap, but it is abundant. Wind and solar both could supply many times more energy than the human race consumes. The main problem today is storing the energy. That is the problem Elon Musk is trying to solve with his Powerwall home batteries.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/…work-that-well-with-solar

  • All energy sources need backup. Nuclear plants need the most, because they are large. When a nuclear reactor is turned off for maintenance or SCRAM, you lose 1 or 2 GW of power instantaneously. They are SCRAMed more often than you might think.


    I do not want to give the wrong impression. Nuclear plants are reliable and they usually stay on line for weeks or months without a problem. A SCRAM event is an emergency by definition -- it has to be reported to the NRC -- but most of these events are not dangerous, and no threat to the public. Here's the thing though. Suppose you have a 1 GW nuclear plant, which is about the average size. Suppose it only goes down in a SCRAM once a year, for a few hours. You still need an entire 1 GW of backup power, standing by, ready to turn on in an instant. Otherwise your customers will lose power.


    I expect many customers do lose power when a nuke is SCRAMed. But anyway, you don't want a million customers losing power for a few hours. So you need that backup capacity out there, ready to go on quickly.


    Scheduled maintenance of a nuke is another story. You can have the backup power lined up and ready. As I said before, in Texas or Iowa, you can schedule the nuke maintenance when you know there will be a lot of wind, about a week ahead of time. Wind is 12% of Texas in-state electricity production, and 35% of Iowa's. It is 18 GW nameplate in Texas, or about 6 GW actual, on average. When there is a strong wind predicted, I expect it is around 10 GW, so you would have the leeway to shut down ~4 nukes. (You would actually only shut down one.) Wind produces more power in Texas than nukes do. In July 2016 Texas has produced 3,710 thousand MWh of nuclear power, and 5,904 thousand MWh of "renewables" mostly wind. Lots more natural gas, though: 24,288 thousand MWh. Coal: 13,906 thousand MWh. You could replace coal in 10 or 20 years with wind, easily.


    http://www.awea.org/resources/…heets.aspx?itemnumber=890


    http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=TX#tabs-4

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