I believe that MRI was put into clinical use before mostl of the spin elements were understood well enough for solid explanation.
And to this day, do we really know what electricity actually is?
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@ oldguy,
example: CETI (Clean energy Tech) was offered 30 M by Motorola but Patterson wanted to remain in control, F&P were given 30M for their set up in Nice, France.
As for CETI, I found this story:
QuoteDisplay Morehttp://www.wired.com/1998/11/coldfusion/
[…]By mid-1996," Reding recalls, "we had research relationships with the University of Illinois, the University of Missouri, and Kansas City Power & Light. They were supporting our research. Motorola even made a written offer to buy our company."
When I challenge him on that, he goes to a file cabinet and pulls out a letter from Gregory E. Korb at Motorola New Enterprises. Conditional on a series of tests, it proposes a buyout totaling $15 million.
(Subsequently, I track down Korb and ask him if the letter is genuine. "The Patterson cell was demonstrated in a Motorola facility, which was not the best environment to do calorimetry," Korb says, very carefully. "But Motorola did tell CETI that if they could prove the phenomenon, we would be willing to invest in it.")
So, the letter seems real. "You turned down a conditional offer that could have been worth $15 million," I say to Reding.
He hesitates – but only for a moment. "We're better off in the long run," he tells me.
So the funding at stake were 15 M$, but above all it was tied to a properly conducted test. In any case collecting offers is not the same as collecting money.
The only suitable example is, therefore, the 30 M$ spent by Toyoda for F&P. Let us compare it with the funds raised by the Ecat. The company founded specifically to exploit its IP initially raised at least 11,5 M$, and subsequently obtained 50 M$ from an investing fund (5% of an estemated total value of 1 B$). After subtracting all the costs, there remains more than 30 M$ available for the LENR field. So, from the POV of the LENR community, the Ecat initiative was much more fruitful than the Nice initiative.
But the economic part doesn't adequately show the exceptionality of the Ecat venture, with respect to the F&P's one. We should better compare the circumstances of the two endeavors.
Let's start with F&P. In 1989, they were two esteemed academicians, unanimously recognized as true scientists. One of them had been the president of the International Society of Electrochemistry, the discipline concerning the functioning of his cell. They obtained the funding for the Nice lab in 1992, when there was still some credit that cold fusion could have been a real phenomenon, and many believed that the criticisms raised in the first months could have come by strong competitions between physicists and chemists. In addition, the two scientists claimed to have obtained only a few watts of excess heat, a range easily attributable to the instrumental errors, and their task was only to improve that gain and better explain the possible underlying phenomenon.
On the other side, Rossi had a degree in philosophy and was a complete outsider for nuclear physics or chemistry. When he joined the LENR field, his reputation was not at the highest level. Leaving aside the Italian troubles, the only research activity carried out in the US under a government contract, the TEG project, ended in failure. At the time he entered the LENR field, 20 years later of the Nice initiative, the related research was nearly dead, and its popularity was at the lowest level. The CF/LENR field was ignored by most people, the few others considered it as woodo science. Rossi made a miracle, literally resurrecting the field, and making millions of people believing that the LENR phenomena were real, and that his method was nearly ready for industrial applications. Despite having published on the web a lot of data, including the videos, of many dumb tests, he and the Ecat IP have finally attracted dozens of millions of funding for the development of his devices and for the financing of the entire LENR field.
In conclusion, there is no competition with the F&P achievements. The Rossi venture has been by large the most incredible and sensational success in the history of all the controversial sciences.
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@ woodworker,
And Bernie Madoff scammed billions. Maybe we should ask him his views on LENR if raising money is the criterion on which we are going to rely.
It doesn't seem to me a proper comparison. Madoff had no previous reliability problems and worked in his sphere of competence.
The Ecat story rather reminds me a more surreal situation, something like Al Capone in the position of Head of the Security at Fort Knox. You would immediately wonder who put him in that position and for what reasons. Perhaps these reasons were legitimate, and the choice of the person was the best one. Who knows?
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@ interested observer,
perhaps I am unorthodox in my viewpoint, but I would think that being successful in LENR research entails demonstrating the effect in a reproducible and unambiguous way.
The same viewpoint would suggest that his method should have been taught at MIT or at Caltech, and not at the Harward Business School:
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@ oldguy,
As for CETI, I found this story:
So the funding at stake were 15 M$, but above all it was tied to a properly conducted test. In any case collecting offers is not the same as collecting money.
The only suitable example is, therefore, the 30 M$ spent by Toyoda for F&P. Let us compare it with the funds raised by the Ecat. The company founded specifically to exploit its IP initially raised at least 11,5 M$, and subsequently obtained 50 M$ from an investing fund (5% of an estemated total value of 1 B$). After subtracting all the costs, there remains more than 30 M$ available for the LENR field. So, from the POV of the LENR community, the Ecat initiative was much more fruitful than the Nice initiative.
But the economic part doesn't adequately show the exceptionality of the Ecat venture, with respect to the F&P's one. We should better compare the circumstances of the two endeavors.
Let's start with F&P. In 1989, they were two esteemed academicians, unanimously recognized as true scientists. One of them had been the president of the International Society of Electrochemistry, the discipline concerning the functioning of his cell. They obtained the funding for the Nice lab in 1992, when there was still some credit that cold fusion could have been a real phenomenon, and many believed that the criticisms raised in the first months could have come by strong competitions between physicists and chemists. In addition, the two scientists claimed to have obtained only a few watts of excess heat, a range easily attributable to the instrumental errors, and their task was only to improve that gain and better explain the possible underlying phenomenon.
On the other side, Rossi had a degree in philosophy and was a complete outsider for nuclear physics or chemistry. When he joined the LENR field, his reputation was not at the highest level. Leaving aside the Italian troubles, the only research activity carried out in the US under a government contract, the TEG project, ended in failure. At the time he entered the LENR field, 20 years later of the Nice initiative, the related research was nearly dead, and its popularity was at the lowest level. The CF/LENR field was ignored by most people, the few others considered it as woodo science. Rossi made a miracle, literally resurrecting the field, and making millions of people believing that the LENR phenomena were real, and that his method was nearly ready for industrial applications. Despite having published on the web a lot of data, including the videos, of many dumb tests, he and the Ecat IP have finally attracted dozens of millions of funding for the development of his devices and for the financing of the entire LENR field.
In conclusion, there is no competition with the F&P achievements. The Rossi venture has been by large the most incredible and sensational success in the history of all the controversial sciences.
both Ceti and Rossi where tied to tests. It is just Rossi threw out IH people from the testing whereas Patterson actually ran a test at Motorola and left it with them for a while for them to run and measure. The initial verbal offer was for 30M (via Galvin) and then scaled down to a 15M written offer by at second offer when Patterson did not want to give 100% of it away. Notice a claimed 1kW system was demonstrated.
The Ceti story is a sad one. Notice also that Milley was able to get transmutation on beads and ran independent verification.
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More interesting in the context of the questions :
Quote4. What is the likelihood now of production starting in 2018?
4 - stable
5. What is the likelihood now of the product presentation in 2018?
5 - stable -
@ oldguy,
[...] whereas Patterson actually ran a test at Motorola and left it with them for a while for them to run and measure.
I don't know the hystory of CETI, but, as far as I read in the article on Wired quoted above, the test you are referring to may have been the one "demonstrated in a Motorola facility, which was not the best environment to do calorimetry". Anyway I was referring to the fundings actually collected, not to the offers.
QuoteNotice a claimed 1kW system was demonstrated. The Ceti story is a sad one. Notice also that Milley was able to get transmutation on beads and ran independent verification.
I am sorry to say, but it seems to me that LENR is closer to mythology than to science.
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What is the likelihood now of... ?
Yes stable, equal to 0.
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Quote
AR: but in physics nothing is impossible, everything is more or less probable
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I get an image of the back end of a horse stall when I see the world "stable" from written by the wealthy career specialist.
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@ oldguy,
I don't know the hystory of CETI, but, as far as I read in the article on Wired quoted above, the test you are referring to may have been the one "demonstrated in a Motorola facility, which was not the best environment to do calorimetry". Anyway I was referring to the fundings actually collected, not to the offers.
I am sorry to say, but it seems to me that LENR is closer to mythology than to science.
It should be notice http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/LonchamptGexcessheat.pdf
http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/MileyGHoverviewof.pdf
http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/Srinivasanlowenergyn.pdf
The point there is that Patterson gave beads for testing by others and some cases the experiments were totally carried out by others. I find G. Miley's elemental analysis via neutron activation very interesting. To bad Patterson was "greedy" till death and his grandson who ran the business died early. I often wonder why no one ever continued.
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In physics, but this is not the case being fiction.
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you think they'll let him book rooms again?
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Well it is 6pm Friday. I gave you all a week to bet and, as forecast, there are no takers. So I now close the book. Thank you Alan, you won’t have to send out any emails.
Finding that some of my earlier comments in March have been censored, at least are no longer listed as my postings, has dampened my enthusiasm for this forum, so I bid you adieu.
Few will miss me and the rest can happily get back to the main topic of bashing Rossi and his defenders. God forbid you discuss Rossi’s blog.
Science for Dummies, a better example that you overlooked was fire, and contrary to what you wrote Rossi does have prototypes.
Roseland67, I should have written UL approval may take years. In the case of Rossi’s nuclear, high temperature device I’d be very surprised if it were less than a year. You don’t need UL fir industrial devices.
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Goodbye Adrian.
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Interesting.
Of course, it will always be remembered that AR did a highly successful presentation at the Royal Swedish Academy, home of the Nobel Prize.
AR is certainly one of the best at what he does.
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Sounds like they had a problem with Rossi being there, and blame Lewan for not telling them beforehand. The point being they would have refused use of the conference hall had he done so. I do not see it as a "ban", especially after seeing Ahlfors link. By "red flag", they mean if Mats wants to host another event there, the venue, and attendees will be scrutinized more carefully.
I can see their point really. Rossi has a horrible reputation...especially so after Doral. That is just a fact, and I think even our Rossi fans would agree their reaction to finding he hosted a conference on their campus was justified.
It is not easy being a public supporter of Rossi. You would think Rossi would understand the sacrifice those like the Mats and the Swedes have made to their reputations...just for believing in, and publicly defending him, and return the favor. But not him. He has screwed them all in one way or another. Same goes for HF, yet they stand by their man still.
I do not understand it.
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Dewey has shown his "evidence" What "evidence to you have for your assertion that Mats has no idea? what is good for the goose is good for the gander.
Does a persons word mean nothing
anymore.
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They might be fully booked with Science conferences that get people
more confused about the topic discussed.
No room for simple demonstrations
like the Ecat that show his technology
works
The IVA (QX) demo was a PR stunt of zero (or perhaps negative) scientific value. Rossi never measured his device input power hence never showed that it operated as other than a pretty electric heater.
I can and have substantiated this in detail here, as have many others. I'm not sure whether your false characterisation of Rossi's demo quoted above that so annoyed the IVA guys is from ignorance or lack of technical analysis?
