Rossi-Blog Comment Discussion

Quote from oldguy

Because you or Shane do not know what the other research is, does not mean it does not exist.

I never said that.

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You are only speculating that the other research is not worth much.

No need to speculate so much. Can you list the other researches, and how much are they worth in your opinion? For instance, since you have already cited him, how many million dollars does it worth the research that Letts presented at ICCF21 in which he claims to have obtained a few watts of excess heat?

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I would think the situation is the reverse as you have painted it. Woodford did not invest the larger dollar (pound) amounts until after they had visited all of the researchers IH was supporting at the time and not prior to that just based on Rossi's claims of 1MW.

I have never said that. It's obvious that whoever wants to invest the equivalent of 50 M$ will try to get as much information as possible. In this specific case we know that Woodford representatives visited the Ecat plant in Doral and that they were told that it was producing around 1 MW of heat on a continuous basis since many months.

Anyway, can you please make a list of the other researchers supported by IH, and visited by Woodford in that occasion, along with the claimed performances of their devices?

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Also they realized it may take years to be ready for commercialization and thus put it in the holding company and not IH itself and now waits for the farther development of that research before turning it over. That is "keeping their powder dry" for those development by the other groups IH has and is funding.

Let me understand. Perhaps do you mean that in 2015 a renowned investment fund did freeze 50 M$ of its clients' money into a holding company, just hoping that a research in a field discredited by mainstream science will eventually grasp some valuable development after almost 30 years of unsuccessful attempts?

Quote from Shane D.

The facts show that Rossi was not IH's first LENR investment,

Which facts? Can you, please, provide some evidence? In the lawsuit documents, it is confirmed that IH was formed on (or about) October 24, 2012, and the License Agreement with Leonardo Corp. was signed on October 26, 2012. Are you aware of any other LENR investment made on October 25?

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Woodford told Darden in an email that the *main*, not only, reason for their investing was Rossi.

Yes, the *main*! How much *main* was it? At 51% or 99%? Do you think that Woodford would have invested in LENR if the *main* was not a substantial part of the deal?

Btw, what did you mean in 2016 by saying "because based on Deweysays (just picking on you Dewey J) it does not sound like the rest of IH's portfolio would justify $50 million investment."?

Years ago I offered to fly to Italy and bring with me my very sensitive and proven reliable and precise helium mass spectrometer. I was impressed by Rossi's claims and volunteered to loan him my mass spec and teach him how to use it. I had proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that mostly cold fusion/lenr yielded prodigious 4He as the main nuclear ash. I had confirmed my findings of heat and helium in my cold fusion expereiments in my own Palo Alto garage as well as at SRI, Rockwell Labs, Los Alamos, Pacific Northwest National Lab, the NRL, a major helium lab in Canada, and by being invited to work with the famous Arata San in his personal lab in Osaka where he had a 3He/4He mass spec vastly superior to my own.

Rossi was a perfect gentleman with regard to my offer and wrote a very kind letter/email declining the loan of my 4He mass spec. He noted that "I of all people must understand why he could not invite a person like myself into his lab." He noted that, "I would instantly deduce most of his secrets." We remained congenial colleagues. (He was right about how anyone skilled in the art could readily deduce most of the secrets of this craft in a heart beat.

Today I make a new offer to Andrea, I will bring my quality Gamma Spectrometer to him at my own expense and I will show him how it can defintively identify the great many cold fusion/lenr reactions that define its complex ecosystem. Dotore Rossi surely has the same gamma spectra and neutron evidence that I have in my present work. Together we might break the backs of the defamatory cynical skeptics that seem intent to rule and ruin cold fusion/lenr and keep it from becoming the saviour of our planet suffering the ravages of the fossil fool age. We will simultaneously send the flim flam men, trolls, and magical thinkers, with their 'donate here buttons', scurrying back into their dank dark holes. How about Andrea, we can show each other and then the world the definitive irrefutable proof of cold fusion/lenr, the nuclear fire and the nuclear ash, side by side. If you like I will bring my trusty helium mass spec along as well.

How much more fun could two old guys have. We will have results inside of a week or so and we might show in a glorious moment the transformational energy the world needs so desperately. Together we can deliver this inexhaustible energy better, faster, cheaper. In fact 'energy too cheap to meter.' You can find me at atom-ecology.russgeorge.net .

Quote from RussGeorge

Years ago I offered to fly to Italy and bring with me my very sensitive and proven reliable and precise helium mass spectrometer. I was impressed by Rossi's claims and volunteered to loan him my mass spec and teach him how to use it.

His reactors were very leaky, so I do not think this would have worked. They had things like rubber hoses you could pull right out, the way Jim Dunn did. Atmospheric helium would have swamped anything produced in the reactor. (Assuming the reactors actually produced excess heat, which I doubt.)

Quote from RussGeorge

Today I make a new offer to Andrea, I will bring my quality Gamma Spectrometer to him at my own expense and I will show him how it can defintively identify the great many cold fusion/lenr reactions that define its complex ecosystem.

Is he doing experiments?

His experiment in Doral, Florida was fake. It could not have produced heat. See the Penon report:

http://coldfusioncommunity.net…/01/0197.03_Exhibit_3.pdf

RussGeorge

I was with you all the way until this:

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Together we might break the backs of the defamatory cynical skeptics that seem intent to rule and ruin cold fusion/lenr and keep it from becoming the saviour of our planet suffering the ravages of the fossil fool age. We will simultaneously send the flim flam men, trolls, and magical thinkers, with their 'donate here buttons', scurrying back into their dank dark holes.

The problem isn't and never was the skeptics and most certainly not internet skeptics! The problem, in my view anyway, is the failure of advocates for cold fusion/LENR such as yourself, to provide convincing evidence that is massive enough to persuade entrepreneurs. Many large investors are not "cynical skeptics". While they may not always care about saving the planet like Darden says he does, they do care about making money. And nothing could have a larger world wide market than even a modest compact space or water or food heater that runs long periods on a small amount of inexpensive fuel. Even better if it can make electricity but that is certainly not necessary for massive success. Only heat in the low kW range and temperature around the boiling point of water. So give them one and stop paying attention to the negative people. They don't matter. Possible investors do. Convince them.

JedRothwell

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Is he {Rossi} doing experiments?

Sure! How else could he come up with the plastic fantastic and duct tape wonders that he does?

Oh, and best of luck convincing Rossi to allow accurate measurement of anything about his reactors. Just trying gets him pissed off.

Quote from JedRothwell

Is he doing experiments?

After going through the Lugano Style vs real external alumina temperature curve exercise, there is little doubt to me that Rossi experimentally determined the ranges in which he would like the device to be tested in: where the peak dummy temperature should be, the minimum reported dummy temperature, the high 'COP' range, the maximum temperature the Optris could deal with and probably the best material to inflate the IR temperature with.

Although it is possible that the Lugano demo accidentally ended up being tested in the way most likely to get a good contrast from dummy to active using IR, it is unlikely this was left to chance, and more likely that it was intentionally designed and encouraged to be that way.

(The Optris cannot report more than 1524.7 C, no matter what emissivity setting is used.)

Quote from Paradigmnoia

After going through the Lugano Style vs real external alumina temperature curve exercise, there is little doubt to me that Rossi experimentally determined the ranges in which he would like the device to be tested in: where the peak dummy temperature should be, the minimum reported dummy temperature, the high 'COP' range, the maximum temperature the Optris could deal with and probably the best material to inflate the IR temperature with.

Although it is possible that the Lugano demo accidentally ended up being tested in the way most likely to get a good contrast from dummy to active using IR, it is unlikely this was left to chance, and more likely that it was intentionally designed and encouraged to be that way.

(The Optris cannot report more than 1524.7 C, no matter what emissivity setting is used.)

Agreeed. I like to give people the benefit of the doubt. There has never been doubt that Rossi's demos are bankrupt, but he has too much of genius for them being optimally bankrupt for that to be just luck.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

And nothing could have a larger world wide market than even a modest compact space or water or food heater that runs long periods on a small amount of inexpensive fuel.

That is obvious. But unhelpful. If we had anything remotely like that, we could instantly get billions of dollars of investment money. If it were generally known that such a machine existed, every industrial company on earth would be frantically investigating it, and reverse engineering it at the earliest opportunity.

The problem is to get from where we are now to the kind of thing you describe. We have to go from something like the repeatable but low power shown by Takahashi et al. and replicated by Beiting, to a larger, more reliable version. If that can be done at all, it will take some amount of money ranging from several million dollars to a billion dollars. I have no idea where in that range it will cost. The thing is: no one has any idea. No one knows whether it can be done, how it can be done, or how much it will cost. If anyone tells you they know these things, that is a good indication they don't know what they are talking about.

Finding an effective way to do cold fusion might require something like the Wildcat Discovery Technologies approach, which must cost hundreds of millions. I have no idea how much, but it sure looks expensive. It is probably hundreds of times better than old fashioned manual R&D techniques. See:

http://www.wildcatdiscovery.co…throughput-workflow/#hs1:

Needless to say, there is not a snowball's chance in hell that anyone will put that kind of money into cold fusion. It might take centuries to do the same amount of research that this technique could accomplish in a year. So we might never get there.

So far, almost all of the investors and venture capitalists have been unwilling to lift a finger or risk any money to make that transition. Other than I.H. and the Mysterious Person funding Texas Tech., venture capitalists have been useless. They are waiting for the outcome to be a sure thing before they invest. As Mark Twain said about bankers, they will only give you money when you don't need it.

Based on my experience, venture capitalists say they are in business of taking risks, but most of them are lying. They do not actually want to take risks. They want to invest in a sure thing that looks like a risk to other people. Those other people know less about the product, so they will not invest. This lowers the cost and lets the venture capitalist buy a larger share from the people who developed the product (the inventors, programmers, or businesspeople). Venture capitalists want to look as if they are taking a risk, without actually taking one. Cold fusion is an actual risk, so not one in a million venture capitalists will touch it.

The other problem with the present era is that money is sloshing around in unprecedented amounts looking for a home, yet paradoxically the wealthy have never been wealthier. There is no need for them to take risks, so they will not take any. They can make a fortune by rentier capitalism. This was situation in California after the discovery of gold in the 1850s, which is why the Transcontinental Railroad could not be funded. San Francisco was filled with millionaires who could make another million easily and without much risk, by opening another gold or silver mine. The would literally -- actually -- light cigars with burning $100 bills to flaunt their wealth. Not one of them would risk investing an railroad, because they could make money without risk elsewhere. The railroad had to wait until Lincoln passed a law under which the Federal government subsidized the construction and lent a lot of money. Uncle Sam took most of the risk. It was a sure thing after that. Capitalists such as Leland Stanford were then willing to risk their own money, knowing that Uncle Sam had their back. (They might have lost money, but it was unlikely. They did have to pay back the loans, but they had decades to do that.) It was finished in 1869. The government made a lot of money on the interest for the loans, so it benefited everyone. The point is, capitalists would never have taken that risk on their own.

From time to time, exceptionally stupid capitalists have actually said to me: "This looks interesting. Call me if anyone ever comes up with a reliable method of doing it." I try to answer politely: "We won't need you if someone comes up a reliable method." What they are saying is akin to: "if you go looking for gold, and you happen to find tons of it lying around on the ground, free for the taking, I will be happy to come and take half of it away from you in return for nothing." They don't seem to realize that is what they are offering.

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Based on my experience, venture capitalists say they are in business of taking risks, but most of them are lying. They do not actually want to take risks.

Peter Thiel: Helion Energy

Wendelstein 7-X: http://www.ipp.mpg.de/w7x

Lockheed Skunk Works: https://lockheedmartin.com/en-…ducts/compact-fusion.html

Tri-Alpha Energy and Google: https://www.theguardian.com/en…nuclear-fusion-technology

General Fusion with Jeff Bezos and others: http://generalfusion.com/

and there are many more in the discussion in the comments to this article: https://www.nanalyze.com/2015/…s-for-investors-to-watch/

These are, for the most part, not at all LENR, but risky nonetheless! And look who is giving them money? Entrepreneurs! Probably because these companies have made a case with theory and preliminary experiments that their method has a good chance of actually working.

Here is the main reason I say no one knows whether it can be done, how it can be done, or how much it will cost:

We are trying to develop this without a theory, so the pace of progress is likely to be the same as it was with technology before 1700. The technique was mainly trial and error, so it took centuries to accomplish what modern science can accomplish in decades. This is why the rapid, automated trial and error system developed by Wildcat Discovery Technologies might be effective. The parameter space is gigantic. It may be far too large for people to explore in 10 years, or 100 years using manual methods, with no theory. No one can say for sure.

The problem is, you might spend hundreds of millions of dollars (or billions -- I have no idea how much) implementing something like the Wildcat Discovery Technologies method for cold fusion, but it might not work. The whole sum of money might be lost. As things now stand, I cannot persuade most investors to put $10,000 into experiments. I myself end up paying amounts like that. There is not the slightest chance anyone would risk a billion dollars when they will not pay $50,000 for palladium that Martin Fleischmann himself recommended.

To appreciate the priorities and wisdom of modern capitalism, you have to put the risk of spending a billion dollars into perspective. See, for example, the harebrained "Jucerio" startup. Investors evidently thought it was good idea, worth risking $120 million on. As I said, venture capitalists seldom think they are taking an actual risk, so they probably thought this was close to a sure thing. You probably would not agree. They were wrong not because they took a risk, but because they are stupid, and stupid money is sloshing around looking for a home. See:

https://www.theguardian.com/te…icon-valley-shutting-down

Stupid money will not go into smart investments.

To take another example, Uncle Sam spent $250 million on one small part of the Star Wars project, producing mono-isotopic lead-207, hoping it would improve space based lasers. It did not work; the money was wasted. But the military thinks nothing of wasting $250 million. Many years ago, the former mayor of Tokyo Ishihara threw away a hundred million dollars trying to attract the Olympic games. He dismissed the expense saying that wasting such small amounts of money "does not hurt or even itch" ("itaku mo kayuku mo nai").

Quote from seven_of_twenty

and there are many more in the discussion in the comments to this article: https://www.nanalyze.com/2015/…s-for-investors-to-watch/

These are, for the most part, not at all LENR, but risky nonetheless! And look who is giving them money?

Uncle Sam is who is giving them money. Most of the ones you list are in plasma fusion research. Every year for the past 60 years, top scientists in every county have assured governments that plasma fusion is promising. They have spent something like $100 billion, with essentially nothing to show for it. They are now building ITER which was supposed to cost $4 billion at one point, but is now up to . . . $14 billion? I lose track. Anyway, Uncle Sam and other governments are picking up the tab, and the people you list are make the offer they often make me:

"If you go looking for gold, and you happen to find tons of it lying around on the ground, free for the taking, I will be happy to come and take half of it away from you in return for nothing."

Quote from seven_of_twenty

Entrepreneurs! Probably because these companies have made a case with theory and preliminary experiments that their method has a good chance of actually working.

Entrepreneurs my ass. I am an entrepreneur. These people are hoping to cash in on a 60-year-long welfare program for scientists, a.k.a. plasma fusion. A program that has never shown the slightest chance of commercial success. If it did work, it would be more dangerous than fission reactors like, oh, Fukushima. If they think it will work, they are as stupid as the people who blew $120 million on Jucerio.

Entrepreneurs developed wind energy. I will give them that. Of course they got tons of money from governments, but they did develop it. The thing is, every engineer in history knew that wind has a lot of potential energy. Until 1840, every single ship in the world was powered by it. There is enough wind power in North and South Dakota to produce more synthetic liquid fuel than all of the oil flowing out of the Middle East. So there was never any question that the potential to produce massive amounts of energy from wind was real. Yes, it was a risk, but not the kind extreme risk that cold fusion is, where you don't even know if it can be done.

Quote from Shane D.

By facts I mean what Darden said, which was that Rossi was his 3rd LENR investment.

OK, something said by a main protagonist is a fact in itself. But you wrote "Rossi was *his* 3rd LENR investment". What do you mean by *his*? Do you mean Darden himself? As a private individual, he can invest his personal money as he pleases. But the discussion with JR concerned a registered company, the "Industrial Heat".

Darden said in Padua: "We funded two of these groups, and then later, as many of you know, we licensed Andrea Rossi’s technology." I don't discuss whether he and his friends have financed a couple of LENR groups before Rossi, although I find it rather strange that after many years we know nothing about these first initiatives. But IH was formed two days before the signing of the agreement with Leonardo Corp., and a month after Vaughn went to Zurich to meet Rossi. So, for sure, the Rossi's technology (if we want to call it this way) was the first to be supported and funded by IH.

Furthermore, looking at the public announcement of the agreement issued in January 2014 (1), it seems the Ecat was the only technology in the IH portfolio at that moment. In fact, the article mentioned 7 times the word "technology":

- Andrea Rossi's Italian low energy nuclear reaction (LENR) technology, the Energy Catalyzer (E-Cat)

- to make the technology widely available

- Such a technology would raise …

- Since acquiring Rossi's technology …

- patent applications related to the core technology

- are supporting this technology

- IH is considering partnerships with industry participants, universities and NGO's to ensure the technology is developed in a thoughtful and responsible manner.

All the mentions are in a definite way (the, this, such), indicating that the only subject in the article is the Rossi's technology defined in the first mention.

In particular, the last mention clearly indicates the intention of IH to seek partnerships only to develop *the technology*, that is the Ecat.

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As to what I said in 2016; that was a period where we only had some of the picture. […] As you can see from my 2016 quote you keep referencing, I used some "Deweysays", or educated guesses myself.

The use of "Deweysays" is exactly the reason why your quote deserve to be referenced. Dewey is an early IH funder, so he didn't need to wait the end of the suit to know the scope and assets of the company he partially owned. Therefore, if on the basis of some "Deweysays" you have guessed that "it does not sound like the rest of IH's portfolio would justify $50 million investment", this means that Woodford's investment can only be justified by the presence of the Ecat's IP in the IH portfolio.

(1) http://www.e-catworld.com/2014…echnology/comment-page-1/

Regarding the Lockheed Skunk Works, that is not a risk, and it has nothing to do with entrepreneurs. Lockheed and other military contractors get obscene amounts of money from the government with overstuffed, risk-free contracts. Lockheed spent a fraction of that on far-out R&D projects. If they succeeded, they got more fat contracts. If they failed, they got a tax write off. In effect, it was paid for by Uncle Sam. It is as if the government paid me a million dollars a week for nothing, and I spent a thousand on lottery tickets.

It was not entrepreneurial because none of the people there were risking their own money. They were not risking much company money. The worst that could happen was they took a tax break.

To summarize, the examples cited by seven_of_twenty are fake entrepreneurs and rentier capitalists, who are taking little or no risks, and no intentional risks. They are mainly collecting government welfare, or hoping to cash in on government R&D energy projects such as ITER. Such people would never invest in cold fusion with their own money, because that would be a real risk, not a paper mache one like the Skunk Works. If the government were to offer them a contract to research cold fusion, they will take it in a flash, even if they think cold fusion does not exist.

Quote from RussGeorge

Years ago I offered to fly to Italy and bring with me my very sensitive and proven reliable and precise helium mass spectrometer. I was impressed by Rossi's claims and volunteered to loan him my mass spec and teach him how to use it. I had proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that mostly cold fusion/lenr yielded prodigious 4He as the main nuclear ash. I had confirmed my findings of heat and helium in my cold fusion expereiments in my own Palo Alto garage as well as at SRI, Rockwell Labs, Los Alamos, Pacific Northwest National Lab, the NRL, a major helium lab in Canada, and by being invited to work with the famous Arata San in his personal lab in Osaka where he had a 3He/4He mass spec vastly superior to my own.

Rossi was a perfect gentleman with regard to my offer and wrote a very kind letter/email declining the loan of my 4He mass spec. He noted that "I of all people must understand why he could not invite a person like myself into his lab." He noted that, "I would instantly deduce most of his secrets." We remained congenial colleagues. (He was right about how anyone skilled in the art could readily deduce most of the secrets of this craft in a heart beat.

Today I make a new offer to Andrea, I will bring my quality Gamma Spectrometer to him at my own expense and I will show him how it can defintively identify the great many cold fusion/lenr reactions that define its complex ecosystem. Dotore Rossi surely has the same gamma spectra and neutron evidence that I have in my present work. Together we might break the backs of the defamatory cynical skeptics that seem intent to rule and ruin cold fusion/lenr and keep it from becoming the saviour of our planet suffering the ravages of the fossil fool age. We will simultaneously send the flim flam men, trolls, and magical thinkers, with their 'donate here buttons', scurrying back into their dank dark holes. How about Andrea, we can show each other and then the world the definitive irrefutable proof of cold fusion/lenr, the nuclear fire and the nuclear ash, side by side. If you like I will bring my trusty helium mass spec along as well.

How much more fun could two old guys have. We will have results inside of a week or so and we might show in a glorious moment the transformational energy the world needs so desperately. Together we can deliver this inexhaustible energy better, faster, cheaper. In fact 'energy too cheap to meter.' You can find me at atom-ecology.russgeorge.net .

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Russ,

As I have been saying for years.

“IF” the Ecat works as stated, there is no way anyone anywhere under any conditions could keep it a secret as AR suggests.

I'm not sure of how much fun Rossi is having at the moment. From his latest interviews, one of which I previously transcribed, it sounds like he's seriously ill despite his claims on JONP of being in perfect health.

RussGeorge: Rossi was a perfect gentleman with regard to my offer and wrote a very kind letter/email declining the loan of my 4He mass spec. He noted that "I of all people must understand why he could not invite a person like myself into his lab." He noted that, "I would instantly deduce most of his secrets." We remained congenial colleagues. (He was right about how anyone skilled in the art could readily deduce most of the secrets of this craft in a heart beat.

Russ,

Perhaps, given the comments above from Shane etc, you can understand now why Rossi was so clear he would never allow anyone near his demos who was armed with better instrumentation? As is often the case Rossi tells the exact truth in a way that makes other people misinterpret it!

Quote from can

I'm not sure of how much fun Rossi is having at the moment. From his latest interviews, one of which I previously transcribed, it sounds like he's seriously ill despite his claims on JONP of being in perfect health.

It is a hugely sad commentary on Mr Rossi's life and character that one cannot trust either his claims of perfect health or that he has ever been seriously ill. At any moment he could be lying or perpetrating one of his scams. What a terrible legacy!