Jed an THH,
You posts on experiment vs theory were so good I *copied* onto Where is the LENR goal line, and how best do we get there?
That's a little confusing. Why not just transfer all of the comments, rather than copying them?
-
-
Jed,
Should have done it that way. My thinking was that your post's went right to the heart of the LENR Catch 22 (experiment/theory/mainstream acceptance), that the Rossi thread crowd might be interested enough to follow the discussion over to the other thread. As you may notice, some like Adrian seldom stray away from Rossi. Try to wean them off the addiction.
I just transferred all over, and left the few copies here so they know where to go.
-
I haven't even read his latest promises after QX . 'SK' what a is that again anyway?
The QX is now rated at 1 kW. There are two versions of the SK (named after physicists) 5 kW ^ 100 kW, Rossi says the QX has been tested for over a year, the SK 5 not so long. He hopes to choose which one to produce next week, following current tests.
He has decided to sell metered heat rather than sell the reactors. He appears to have a customer who wants 40 MW so there us incentive to go to the SK 5.
The SK5 is about the same size as the QX, the SK 100 is ~ ten times larger and on the back burner. He says the SK 100 has been used to run a gas turbine. I expect he will show a mass produced industrial SK 5 not operating in Jan 2019 and we won;t get proof until later in the year.
-
The QX is now rated at 1 kW. There are two versions of the SK (named after physicists) 5 kW ^ 100 kW, Rossi says the QX has been tested for over a year, the SK 5 not so long. He hopes to choose which one to produce next week, following current tests.
He has decided to sell metered heat rather than sell the reactors. He appears to have a customer who wants 40 MW so there us incentive to go to the SK 5.
The SK5 is about the same size as the QX, the SK 100 is ~ ten times larger and on the back burner. He says the SK 100 has been used to run a gas turbine. I expect he will show a mass produced industrial SK 5 not operating in Jan 2019 and we won;t get proof until later in the year.
Strange, claiming output but no word about input power. I have a 1kW room heater sitting in the corner. But that alone means nothing. What is the claimed COP?
-
The QX is now rated at 1 kW. There are two versions of the SK (named after physicists) 5 kW ^ 100 kW, Rossi says the QX has been tested for over a year, the SK 5 not so long. He hopes to choose which one to produce next week, following current tests.
He has decided to sell metered heat rather than sell the reactors. He appears to have a customer who wants 40 MW so there us incentive to go to the SK 5.
The SK5 is about the same size as the QX, the SK 100 is ~ ten times larger and on the back burner. He says the SK 100 has been used to run a gas turbine. I expect he will show a mass produced industrial SK 5 not operating in Jan 2019 and we won;t get proof until later in the year.
Thanks for updating on SK versions. Really hope your (all who believes SK will be real) wait is not in vain. I will visit other threads meanwhile.
-
Care to put some maximum date on when this (independently announced) commercial operation will be? At which point you will be able to join critics?
Obviously I don't have the data to be more precise.
However, from what you have written to Jed above, you will not believe any number of Rossi's commercial customers using GWs of heat, because there is no theory to support it. LOL.
There would be two possibilities.
1 The customer's endothermic processes were all now working without any heat, contrary to all theories.
2. Rossi is running a scam where he is selling heat at a considerable loss.
Which do you prefer?
-
Obviously I don't have the data to be more precise.
However, from what you have written to Jed above, you will not believe any number of Rossi's commercial customers using MWs of heat, because there is no theory to uippot it. LOL.
Adrian, please read what I wrote and consider case (1)? You are misreading again. But are you not putting the cart before the horse? The only commercial customer we know of turned out to be Rossi himself pretending to be an independent customer!
Let me rephrase the question. How many months will you be prepared to continue wait and see before joining skeptics?
-
Adrian, please read what I wrote and consider case (1)? You are misreading again. But are you not putting the cart before the horse? The only commercial customer we know of turned out to be Rossi himself pretending to be an independent customer!
No I'm not. Obviously you won't believe one customer. If there were hundreds, would you then believe it, despite no theory?
-
Display More
A couple of days ago I wrote a response to one of the denizens of Ecat World who had expressed some triumphalist sentiments along the lines we are currently seeing Adrian Ashley. That post was spiked by Frank Acland, the moderator/owner of site. I thank Adrian Ashfield for giving me the opportunity to refashion my rejected post for use here instead. Minor thanks also go out to sam12
Adrian thinks that Rossi skeptics are going to turn and run after Rossi's January demonstration. But I think that this tells us more about how he sees the world than what Rossi skeptics might do. It tells us that Adrian is a controversialist and polemicist. He is not really interested in what is true and how the world works, he just wants his guy to win. It's sort of a political thing. He thinks everyone is like this, hence his post. In contrast, though, I claim that many of the Rossi skeptics are constituted differently. I know I am. I just want to know what is true and what isn't. That's it. If Rossi has the goods then that is fine with me.
As proof of my claims, here is a little thought experiment to try out.
Let's suppose that tomorrow Rossi drops all the secrecy regarding his machines, tells everyone exactly how they work, and pulls off a really convincing demonstration that is replicated by an independent party. How would the skeptics react? Well I would be tickled pink! And curious! So would a lot of others I think. After all this would be convincing proof that something new and valuable has entered the scene. I might wonder why Rossi acted like a con man when he wasn't, but I certainly wouldn't run. Basically I would be happy and curious.
Now let's reverse things. Let's suppose that tomorrow Rossi announces that it has all been a scam and that he has had a wonderful time fooling everyone. How would the Rossi acolytes behave. I think it would be shock and depression. Probably some degree of nonacceptance too ('He is just lying to throw his enemies off the scent'). I don't think there would be much in the way of 'at least we now know what is the truth of the matter. This is a qualitatively different way of thinking about evidence.
I invite anyone to play this game. Imagine each scenario and try to figure out what your response would be, Could be revealing.
I think that if Rossi said it was all the scam many of his supporters would claim that the only reason Rossi is saying that is so that Rossi can continue to develop his universe shattering devices without worrying as much about his IP being stolen. That Rossi admits to a scam is itself a scam to divert attention from him while he steals a march on his competitors. Pretty standard cultist response actually.
-
No I'm not. Obviously you won't believe one customer. If there were hundreds, would you then believe it, despite no theory?
Adrian,
I'd accept any independent testing of a Rossi reactor: just one reputable independent test with positive results would do. Commercial usage is not quite the same: but again I'd accept any reputable independent entity stating that they use Rossi reactor output in their process as normal and find (themselves) Rossi reactor input power to be much lower than the output.
You can work out in more detail what I'd accept if you think clearly about the skeptic viewpoint here: that Rossi passionately wants to keep and add to his fan base, and get money, but has no working reactors. You don't have to decide whether he believes (incompetently or self-deludedly) that they work, or whether he knows they don't work and is out and out fraudulent, or some intermediate position. For example, that he knows they don't always work but believes they can. The same argument works. So just for a moment clear your mind and think around this theory.
Rossi is quite capable of running "commercial" tests in which he controls the reactor and he pays for the input power, so no-one except him knows whether output is greater than input. That is a PR stunt, not a commercial sale.
For Rossi credibilty is essential in netting more money. He has available maybe $10M (difficult to tell). He can afford to lose some of that on a loss leader for the PR that comes from a genuine industrial customer. After all, if he can get again the buzz he had when he started he will get the dopamine high from the adulation and many new potential people whom he can persuade to give him money in advance. As a business proposition that is worth a few thousand, perhaps a few million if he trusts his persuasiveness.
So all we need for validation is:
(1) Reactor used by customer who measures power input and output for themselves and is large enough / clear enough for us to believe their word that Rossi's device actually works, and that they are not out of embarrassment glossing over having bought an electric heater.
(2) Reactor used by customer who is reputable enough for us to believe their statements about output power and how much they pay Rossi. Total cash draw from Rossi can be calculated based on money from customer - electricity cost. This could be calculated from one reactor or multiple. At some point this will be too large for Rossi to sustain as PR. There will be disagreement as to how much loss Rossi would bear, gambling that running these (real) customers for long enough will help him to net additional pay-before-you-get-results funds. Also, there is the wiggle-room I note below where Rossi might claim to supply power he does not supply. His contract terms encourage a situation in which that is possible, and I think it is what he is going for. By the way, that means that, consciously or unconsciously, he knows his reactors do not work.
I'd like Adrian to acknowledge that if you accept the possibility of the skeptical viewpoint (which Adrian claims he does) logically the standard of evidence from commercial customers is as above.
So let us see how Rossi's contract (as we understand it) could work?
The information we have from Rossi is patchy. If he really means to sell power for 80% of the commercial (electricity) cost this is not so compelling for a customer given the various risks and the fact that he is demanding payment not for power used but for maximum power supplied.
Who might buy into such a pricing scheme? Anyone with a 95% uptime could buy in if they reckoned to buy from Rossi their minimum working load and top up (to the maximum working load) from their own electricity supply.
On paper that looks attractive if Rossi pays for the installation. However there is a real problem. How does the customer know for sure that they are really getting the power Rossi claims, rather than just 80% of it? They have to compare their electricity bill with what it would have been without Rossi based on process output. Arguable. Rossi can just claim he is supplying what he says, backed by typical Rossi-type measurements. These would not be simple for a customer to dispute. They would need a to hire genuine skeptical high quality technical opinion to prove him wrong. I'd reckon an initial one year deal would go ahead without complaint even if the customer was not getting as much as they should, since the error would be a small percentage of total customer power use.
For this setup (good for Rossi) to fly we need a customer who cannot use cheaper (gas-based) heating, or whose total power use is so high that the Rossi input can only be measured short-term from Rossi's own measurements. In that case Rossi could deliver almost no power, make money, and the customer would only realise over some time in operation when they find their power draw a little higher than expected. Rossi could hook such a customer by suggesting that a small-scale trial operation, supplying maybe 5% of their total power at preferential rates, could be used to validate his devices, after which it would be scaled up to maybe 50% of power on the same terms. Rossi gets 1 year's publicity from this - he can explain away the deal not being continued - and he does not lose money. During that year he hopes to net a big fish willing to fund him in advance - just like IH.
How all this pans out is one of the fascinating things about post-IH Rossi watching. My guess is that any genuine customer will not fly except somone willing to give it a punt at no real cost but without making a profit themselves in the hope that they might have a much better second contract. Although there is damning negative publicity out there from the IH case we see from Sam and Adrian there are people charmed by the Rossi story, and Rossi himself is known to be charismatic and charming in the right situation. So I think Rossi finding a power user who buys into his story enough for some Ok for Rossi contract is possible.
I can see how, technically, Rossi has real prospects here. He plays the brilliant LENR lone inventor scorned by the scientific establishment (many will support that) and cheated by IH (a few will support that). He offers a small contract that seems profitable (if you trust him) and in any case does not lose a lot, with the prospect of a much better (because larger) second contract on the same terms. The second contract will in reality never happen, but Rossi has a year of the first contract running and his ability to fall out with a partner after 12 months is unrivalled - it will happen. The test conditions are such that initially no-one can be quite sure whether they are getting the supplied heat or not. After some time a contractee would probably, from a combination of embarrassment and fear of Rossi lawsuit, let the contract run and keep quiet. Rossi can run such contracts with any number of people. He can continue to do so as long as his charm and internet presence gives him new customers. Will he succeed? I don't know.
Were I amoral, deceitful, super-charismatic and fuelled by internet adulation (I am none of these) I could see a real but risky business opportunity here.
In reality? The IH dispute has greatly, but maybe not fatally, harmed Rossi. I'd guess he can NDA his possible future customers enough to keep them quiet about reservations. One great advantage, for Rossi, is that after another breakdown he can point to IH as an example of his ability to make trouble should any customer who has signed something make trouble. It shows that the reality is not important, the damage from a completely spurious legal claim is strong leverage.
-
Display More
Obviously I don't have the data to be more precise.
However, from what you have written to Jed above, you will not believe any number of Rossi's commercial customers using GWs of heat, because there is no theory to support it. LOL.
There would be two possibilities.
1 The customer's endothermic processes were all now working without any heat, contrary to all theories.
2. Rossi is running a scam where he is selling heat at a considerable loss.
Which do you prefer?
AA,
Possibility # 3
3. Rossi has no customer, never did, has no device that produces Energy Out > Energy In
is running a scam and has been fooling gullible people for years.
-
Adrian keeps predicting that if Rossi turned out to really have the goods, skeptics would “turn and run”.
Not so. Here’s what skeptics would really do if the e-cat actually worked:
1) Be utterly amazed and thrilled that there is a new source of nearly boundless energy.
2) Realize that Rossi was not a con man but rather a sociopath, idiot savant , and undoubtedly the worst businesman in history.
-
Realize that Rossi was not a con man but rather a sociopath, idiot savant , and undoubtedly the worst businesman in history.
Yes. He would be all of those things for not commercializing earlier. Instead of launching the lawsuit against I.H., he might have demonstrated the effect in a convincing way, and they would have paid him. He would be making billions of dollars a year by now, because he had half the world's markets to himself.
-
I'd accept any independent testing of a Rossi reactor: just one reputable independent test with positive results would do. Commercial usage is not quite the same: but again I'd accept any reputable independent entity stating that they use Rossi reactor output in their process as normal and find (themselves) Rossi reactor input power to be much lower than the output.
Well it doesn't look like you are going to get an independent test nor will the customer see the input power. That would be a commercial secret.
Obviously the customer would either know how much heat he uses or measure it coming in, or both. I did a back of the envelope calculation that if Rossi is to compete against gas he needs a COP >25.
The rest if your convoluted, extremely long winded post did little to clarify your position (you won't believe it without a theory) and seemed an attempt to avoid answering the question. " If many customers are happy buying heat from Rossi, will you believe his reactors work?" Yes or no?
Rossi has gone to extreme lengths to protect his IP and is unlikely to risk it with an independent test. Why should he? It doesn't look like he has a strong patent for the SK. Possibly he can't get one. Operating in the field runs the risk he will not be able to get a patent in the future.
-
Rossi has made a choice. The same decision that Patterson and a range of other inventors have came to, "If I can't have it all for myself, no one else will have anything!" To follow through on this self imposed requirement, he has been willing to play ridiculous games, manipulate other parties, deceive supportive individuals, misguide the LENR community (with the enormous exaggeration beyond belief about Johnson Matthey's involvement), break contractual obligations, and tarnish the image of this entire field to the point I don't blame anyone for running away screaming. But in his mind, every action was perfectly acceptable as part of his goal to achieve total monopolistic domination (or as close to it as possible before copy-cats arrive) of the market. No one should doubt that more shenanigans are to come in the future, if he deems them required.
Unfortunately, I propose that virtually every pioneer who has gained Rossi's level of practical know-how and understanding of how to design these systems develops a very similar mindset; inventors disease seems to be more contagious than the most virulent strain of air borne hemorrhagic fever (ebola). They see the potential of the technology, the fundamental simplicity at the conceptual level, the copious number of applications, and start dreaming of dollar signs and a comfortable office at the summit of their fifty story tall company headquarters. Secrecy then reigns. Everything becomes about how to move their technology forward at all costs: tossing morality and ethics to the wind when the need arises. And since everyone that has accumulated such knowledge follows this same path, no one across the world makes any true progress towards massively commercializing the technology. Because of the self centered, inherently greedy nature of mankind, the supposed competitors that these individuals feared were about to emerge at any time with a rival technology never show up!
These individuals do deserve credit in some areas, though. They are inspired, creative individuals with motivation and drive to build what's considered by mainstream science -- including the majority of active users on this forum -- to be impossible. If nothing else, Rossi is a keen dreamer with a steadfast desire to build, test, discover, and improve. When millions of scientists were busy working on trivial projects to build slightly faster computer chips, design yet a barely more efficient internal combustion engine, or produce a minimally stronger metal alloy, he followed the path down the plasmoid paradigm to achieve true wonders -- as a long series of inventors before and after him.
-
These individuals do deserve credit in some areas, though. They are inspired, creative individuals with motivation and drive to build what's considered by mainstream science --
I am sorry, but giving Rossi credit is like stating "The Nigerian email scammers, while immoral and criminally fraudulent are brilliant financiers".
"Nigerian scammers" are not financiers, they are criminal thieves.
Rossi is not a brilliant inventor, he is a brilliant scammer. Open your eyes and simply look at the facts. He lies, he lies often and he lies about everything. From customers to robotic factories to working reactors. He lies to his customers, he lies to his fanbase, he lies everyone.
He could remove all doubt and have billions of dollars.... as much more than he ever can have from "protecting his precious IP". Simply by proving the eCat works and teaming up with a legitimate corporate partner. He does not do this because he cannot. He has nothing. He has no working reactor.
People want the eCat to work so badly because they see it as a possible "penicillin" to the world's disease of fossil fuel. So as some have said above, people blind themselves to reality because the eCat simply MUST be real. It is their hope, their salvation! No, the individuals you mention did not take world changing secrets to the grave with them.... they took nothing but their delusions or scams. It is conspiracy theory mindset thinking otherwise. "There must be these world saving technologies, but they were snatched from our grasp by evil corporations, selfish inventors, evil governments"
People can dream, but that does not make it real. Adrian states he will wait and see... .but he will be waiting the rest of his life on Rossi. If Rossi disappears, Adrian will state the eCat was real and the "powers that be" disposed of him. If Rossi should pass away, then "the secret to the working eCat went to the grave". If Rossi admits it was all a scam... then "he is only saying that to throw off the competition".
It has become a religion. Oddly enough, these verses come to mind but in reverse..... "they have eyes but cannot see, they have ears but cannot hear...."
-
Display More
Well it doesn't look like you are going to get an independent test nor will the customer see the input power. That would be a commercial secret.
Obviously the customer would either know how much heat he uses or measure it coming in, or both. I did a back of the envelope calculation that if Rossi is to compete against gas he needs a COP >25.
The rest if your convoluted, extremely long winded post did little to clarify your position (you won't believe it without a theory) and seemed an attempt to avoid answering the question. " If many customers are happy buying heat from Rossi, will you believe his reactors work?" Yes or no?
Rossi has gone to extreme lengths to protect his IP and is unlikely to risk it with an independent test. Why should he? It doesn't look like he has a strong patent for the SK. Possibly he can't get one. Operating in the field runs the risk he will not be able to get a patent in the future.
Adrian:
input power cannot be measured because it is a commercial secret
As a Rossi skeptic I can think of one very good reason, because then it would be seen equal to output power. It is difficult to see why else it would be this.
your convoluted, extremely long winded post did little to clarify your position (you won't believe it without a theory)
That is because that is your erroneous fixed view of me, not my position.
THH
-
I don't agree. Rossi stated he believes that having a financial incentive will lead to the fastest development and exploitation of LENR. He has a widely recognized point.
Rossi states h has his IP written down in case of his death, so it won't disappear. There is no reason to think he is doing it for the money. He could have retired when he sold his bio-fuel engine business for $1 million.
It's not easy to start a new business with a novel technology. Some have managed it, like Intel, who seem to have done well, despite what you say.
The fact remains Rossi will have done something extraordinary, that all other scientists have failed to do, if it proves out next year. Sure, the babblers will keep repeating he has nothing but there is no way they know that. It looks like you have joined the hate Rossi club.
-
As a Rossi skeptic I can think of one very good reason, because then it would be seen equal to output power. It is difficult to see why else it would be this.
You should see a psychologist if you think anyone would burn that much money to keep a handful of fans for a year. You can work put the loss if his COP is 1 rather than <25, not even counting the cost of manufacturing the reactors.
That is because that is your erroneous fixed view of me, not my position.
You claimed you need a theory to believe in your discussion with Jed. You seem to have backed off that a little in you last post, but you never answered my question did you? Yes or no?
-
You should see a psychologist if you think anyone would burn that much money to keep a handful of fans for a year.
Most of that long complicated post you did not understand was explaining how in fact Rossi could make money from his published contract terms with COP = 1. But also that as a loss leader - in the hope of netting another IH, not keeping internet fans, he has a good business case for doing this at a loss.
