Rossi vs. Darden developments [CASE CLOSED]

Quote from PeterMetz

My view that COP could go up in conjunction with a reduced input was more in line with the efficiency of the reaction.

If this were real cold fusion, the reaction would probably go down with reduced input, but it might remain stable or go up. Input power has no direct or linear effect on output power in cold fusion. However, we know for sure the cold fusion heat would not instantly leap up to cover up the change in power the way Rossi claimed. That never happens.

Quote from PeterMetz

If you look at Penon's data the COP varies from about 50 to 140 give or take. The system is composed of multiple disparate reactors and Rossi's control system is varying the stimulus (and energy) in such a way to maximize COP.

Penon's data is bullshit from start to end. No instrument would produce those numbers. It is all made up. You cannot draw any conclusions from blatantly fake data.

Quote from PeterMetz

Given this (and assuming the data is correct) I don't see an inherent conflict and indeed would expect that the COP could go up if the input energy went down given the inverse relationship between COP and input energy.

There is no conflict. You missed my point, and Murray's point. (You missed his point because the lawyer would not let him finish explaining.) The point is, the "COP" would not instantly change to keep overall energy output stable. As I said, you would have difficulty keeping the balance this close even with combustion. With actual cold fusion, the ratio wanders all over the place. It is not a COP at all in the engineering sense. There is no direct connection, only second and third order connections, such as heat from input power, or hydride loading from input power.

For the sake of argument, if this is real, Rossi has discovered something completely different from cold fusion. That would violate McKubre's conservation of miracles. This new effect can be controlled with pinpoint precision in mysterious ways unlike any cold fusion experiment. It works even when the machine is turned off and disassembled! Components such as the heat exchanger pipe are invisible. It is a miracle indeed.

Quote from ultrasure

But, yes, to the best of my knowledge, the e-cat works.

Have you looked at Penon's report? Do you think it is credible? If you think it is, the best of your knowledge is not good enough. It is conceivable that Rossi's earlier reactors worked, but this one did not.

The Penon report is document 197-03

http://coldfusioncommunity.net…/01/0197.03_Exhibit_3.pdf

If, over the course of a day, the ratio of self-sustained mode over non self sustained mode is higher than for an average day, why can't input power decrease and COP increase? Assume output power is kept constant.

As I commented way before the current data dump, a failing device or module may have reduced COP.

Taking one Tiger/Big Frankie off-line : input goes down 25% but the remaining systems are running at full efficiency, so COP rises.

All hypothetical of course.

Quote from JedRothwell

They could be the worst thieves in the world, but they still cannot steal the IP by this method. As I said, assuming the gadget works, as soon as they try to sell it, Rossi will join forces with powerful people and come down on them like a ton of bricks. The powerful people will join with him not because they like him, but because they see hundreds of billions of dollars on the table, there for the taking. I.H. would be totally defenseless.

I don't know. I have not read the IH internal email. I got that information from Penon's data. I.H. says there is no heat, and based on that data, I concur.

That was not written by APCO.

Jed, you miss my point. My comment was directed specifically at ele and those who make a big deal about IH motives and actions.

There is a ridiculous argument being peddled by a few that if IH are really bad then somehow it excuses all Rossi's questionable actions and perhaps even points to Rossi having what he claims.

We can debate it (IH side) but it is irrelevent to the central issue which is Rossi, after all the failed business partnerships, all the drama, all the promises and lies has produced exactly zero in terms of a product. All he has to do is produce something and demonstrate categorically that it works.

The $80 million from the court case would then be peanuts and Rossi would have IH and others fighting to throw money at him and possibly the Nobel prize that he wants.

The only reason I can think of why he wouldn't is because he has nothing.

So: I agree with Jed that the data on performance from Rossi/Penon is worthless. And pretty obviously so.

I don't agree that you can necessarily prove it is worthless from the input/output correlation.

(Those not interested in the minutiae of this matter might want to skip the stuff below - I've just said I think nothing can be proven from this particular line of investigation)

This is an underdetermined system. We don't know (under the hypothesis that Rossi's devices produce vast quantities of heat) what is the relationship between produced heat and input. Do we have hour-by-hour measurement of output? I thought the data points were by day. Any assumptions about what typical LENR systems do is surely worthless in proving anything, since there is no mainstream agreement that typical LENR systems do anything, and in any case Rossi's system might bbe atypical in some important way. Without a clear and well-understand causative theory no-one can deny that possibility.

All I can say is that the lack of correlation between input and output is suggestive of bogus output. If it could be proven that output was high when the system was entirely shut down that would be interesting. I doubt we will be able to prove that.

The most likely (to me) thing here is that Rossi has some real measurements, made bogus through a combination of errors. The pressure measurement is weird, either his whole system runs at atmospheric pressure or the instrument is not connected or it is faulty. A constant temperature of just above 100C does not of course imply 100% phase change. In fact it implies, local to the thermometer, some water vapour and some liquid, under a pressure of slightly more than atmospheric such as you'd expect from a system that pumps water through pipes. Or, equally possible, we have one of Rossi's favourites. A mis-sited thermometer where conduction via pipes from a hotter reactor ups the temperature from that of the cooler piped fluid. We have way too little information to do more than speculate about these things and since proof, either way., would be needed to change expectations that does not help. Maybe I'll still indulge myself in speculation, for fun, but I don't imagine it will progress the arguments.

We know that Rossi is both rubbish at experimental science and duplicitous. The combination makes any Rossi-controlled measurement worthless. That means unable to prove his devices don't work as well as unable to prove they do. It is only Rossi's genius at PR that puts us in a position where somone all of whose tests have been worthless is viewed by a few as likely to have a miracle device that will solve the world's energy problems. Cults work like that. Rossi seems good at roping scientists into his cult.

Quote from damn_right_yes

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You say, his PR-guy ? This sounds really logical.

Ok, and which conclusions can we now draw from Mats Lewans ?

I did not mention anyone being Rossi's PR guy. I think Rossi does his own PR, very successfully.

I think, like other good-intentioned people, Mats got sucked into the Rossi bubble and is unable to get out. He has this idea that even if there is only a small chance Rossi has the goods, on a cost-benefit basis we should all pretend he has them and support him. Because it would be a tragedy for such a breakthrough to be lost. There are several logical problems I see in this argument but they have never bothered Mats.

I don't know what is his current view, except that he has never come back on the issue he said he would seek independent opinion on - Lugano. That tells me that he tried this, could not get the opinion he wants, and so quietly ignores the matter as being bad for Rossi if aired. I'd thought he had retired from the debate but he seems sometimes to post on ECW in a Rossi-supportive, IH negative way. Maybe Alan here would know more.

This is all speculation. Were I a conspiracy theorist I'd say Mats was paid by Rossi and part of a conspiracy, no doubt...

I do not think Mats was paid by Rossi, probably, he, (Mats), wants to believe the Ecat works so fervently that he chooses to believe what he is told.

Quote from damn_right_yes

I already stated that here, because this is very likely the case.

I really don't think so as to Mats being paid by AR. I tend to think AR compensates others minimally, which is actually the better (and safer) tactic for maintaining a long-con. When you pay people money to espouse a viewpoint they tend to believe the money is the reason for their actions, but if they do it for minimal compensation, they believe it is because they really believe in the chosen course of action. Lot's of research on this.

Quote from JedRothwell

Rossi was the only one who wanted to do a long-term endurance test. I.H. let him do that after they exhausted their own efforts to confirm the heat with their own tests. I think by that time they had little hope it would work

IIRC, they hired Murray after the 1MW test began, and one of the things they had him work on was rigorous testing of a Lugano-style reactor. So clearly they had not exhausted their own efforts before letting Rossi proceed. In fact, Murray was quite dismissive of Dameron and IH's capacity prior to hiring him to assemble an engineering team. That was in Spring/Summer 2015. So their efforts up until then apparently left a lot to be desired. Cassarino's (Ampenergo) testimony supports his view.

Quote from JedRothwell

It reminded me of the graph in Mizuno's book showing heat after death

Murray said they also tried to confirm Mizuno without success. What are your thoughts on that?

@Bob

Alex Passi is a translator who worked with other professors at the University of Bologna (Levi et al.) for their reports on the E-Cat.

Quote from LENR Calender

If, over the course of a day, the ratio of self-sustained mode over non self sustained mode is higher than for an average day, why can't input power decrease and COP increase? Assume output power is kept constant.

1. In the event discussed by Murray, Rossi was not claiming a self-sustaining mode, but only an increase in output compared to input.

2. With a real cold fusion reaction, output might increase compared to input, but not instantaneously in a way that would not affect the net energy of the day.

3. With a real cold fusion reaction, output power cannot be kept perfectly constant, any more than it can with a coal fire. Not with the known control parameters.

Perhaps Rossi claims control orders of magnitude better than anyone else. Judging by the data I think it is more likely he made up a bunch of numbers, arbitrarily subtracted 10% from the flow rate, and handed the bogus report to I.H. with an invoice for $89 million.

Question 1 for Planet Rossi people to contemplate: If the data is so unreliable they have to subtract 10% from the flow rate -- apparently as a weird precaution of some sort -- how did it manage to balance and come to the same totals and temperatures every day for weeks? Does that look like something a real system would do? Does it even remotely resemble real cold fusion experiments, or a burning pile of coal, a fission reactor, or any other large-scale energy system?

Question 2: How did they manage to produce that same sustained 1 MW of heat on days when the machine was turned off and disassembled?

There are dozens more questions along these lines. That anyone, anywhere still believes this load of garbage illustrates people's gullibility and wishful thinking. I now understand why so many end-of-the-world cults, and anti-vaccination cults continue. A mountain of irrefutable evidence has no impact at all on such things. It is depressing.