Jevons's paradox

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons's_paradox


    Quote

    In economics, Jevons's paradox sometimes the Jevons effect occurs when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises because of increasing demand. Jevons's paradox is perhaps the most widely known paradox in environmental economics.


    In the R. Mills energy economy to come, one hydrogen atom will produce 27 ev worth of energy. That reaction will remove that hydrogen atom forever from our world. A molecule of water will produce 54 electron volts.


    Mills says that since fuel is free then conservation an efficiency is not important. Only ten percent of the energy produced by the SunCell is used. So every water molecule will produce 5 ev of power and 50 ev of waste heat.


    The IEA estimates that, in 2013, total world energy consumption was 9,301 Mtoe, or 3.89 × 10e20 joules.


    That comes to 2.4285712855e+39 ev.


    So the amount of water molecules that will be consumed is on the order of 10e39.


    The density of water is 1g/(cm3) so in 1 gallon of water ( about 3.785 Liters or 3785cm3) the mass of the water is, 3785g. 1 mole of 6.02x1023 molecules of water is equal has the mass in grams equal to the molecular weight or 18 grams per mole. so 3785 grams corresponds to about 1.265 x 10e26 molecules of water.


    The water consumed will be 10e39/10e26 or 10e13 gallons of water.


    or 378.54 cubic kilometers of water/year.


    There is 1.332 billion cubic kilometers of water on the earth


    Since water is free, we can assume that the water consumption by SunCell will rise to 1,332 cubic kilometers per year due to Jevons's paradox.


    So we will have about million years of water to use before it all is gone.


    But long before that water limit is reached, the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere will become dangerous.


    How much atmospheric pressure can you and yours take? Venus, here we come...

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxygen_toxicity


  • The reference to Jevons's paradox will undoubtedly have its significance for (successful) future of LENR - but the main consumers of oxygen today are just the fossil fuel sources. I can imagine well the situation, when we would decompose the carbonates and carbon dioxide just for to get more material resources into account of relative surplus of energy. If we would get excess of oxygen during it, we could bind it to carbon or iron from Earth mantle - so that the high oxygen content will be the least problem of LENR future IMHO. It's just a matter of energy, which we would have.


    The whole basis of problem is, our dear Axill Axill is inquisitive and diligent collector of information - but he's also superficial and lazy to think. Once he runs out the straightforward logical consequences of original thought, he looks for additional evidence between homologies, tautologies and logical fallacies.


    The above post is a typical example of AxillAxill modus vivendi here: he starts with stimulating insight which he just borrowed somewhere else - so that he is still full of it (the increased production of energy may not lead to decrease of its consumption!!!) and he is looking for its demonstration no matter what. But he continues with clueless extrapolation (because of bad example chosen, i.e. the water) and he finally ends with logical nonsense: Axill himself realized, that the water may not work well as a consequence of exhaustion of resources - so that the lack of oxygen has been chosen blindly, which runs even worse as an consequence of Jevons's paradox.

  • The reference to Jevons's paradox will undoubtedly have its significance for (successful) future of LENR -


    R. Mills has made a choice to invent his own future energy world by renouncing LENR and inventing his own science. That Science has unintended environmental consequences because of its profligate use of resources and its low power density which is a result of its non nuclear nature.


    But the conversion of hydrogen to dark matter has issues of its own because it consumes and removes an important element from the environment thus disturbing natures balance through transmutation.


    Regarding: "the lack of oxygen"...you need to learn to read more effectively. The point is to show an increase in the toxicity of the atmosphere from water decomposition as a result of Mills science.


    The theme of the post was to show how R. Mills' in his attempt to stay clear of the LENR nuclear stigma engenders more serious environmental consequences from the overuse of a resource.


    Of course, the post is nonsense because the Mills science is nonsense but you can't see that and take the post seriously.

  • Quote

    R. Mills has made a choice to invent his own future energy world by renouncing LENR and inventing his own science.

    You're yourself opponent of hydrino hypothesis - or not? Today it's not even clear, if SunCell generates surplus of energy, not to say about its actual physical mechanism. I'd wait for more experiments and data before speculating about consequences of SunCell process for human civilization - maybe the fusion of hydrogen and oxygen runs there or some other process, which doesn't lead into formation of hydrino at all. Recently quite a few technologies emerged, which utilize water as an energy source: many of them run under the conditions, which cannot be explained with hydrino formation - they occasionally generate hydrogen instead.

    • Official Post

    Today much hydrogen is lost simply by leak from the atmosphere, but there is much in solar system that we could harvest with the energy it produce and matching technology.


    The paradox is interesting, and in fact it is well known in economic in another form :
    when you reduce work by productivity, it reduce unemployment because more people can afford the product, and free time is used to produce more other products, and wages increase allowing less time at work.


    Note that if you see Japan, contrary to US, you see that you can have improvement of lifestyle based on miniaturization and efficiency, and less on brutal increase of input at stable comfort per energy ratio.


    Note also that LENR, or any nuclear energy, is not free.
    Like for fission (or wind or solar or hydro), the fuel is nearly free compared to the energy produced. It is very different from oil and coal, which are expensive per MWh produced.
    However the real cost of nuclear energy like LENR is in the reactor and conversion capacity.
    The nut is cheap but the nutcracker is very expensive.


    Fossil energy cost because of energy produced, while nuclear energy consume because of installed capacity. Wether you use it or nor have few consequence on the cost.

    • Official Post

    Hi Alain.


    Note that if you see Japan, contrary to US, you see that you can have improvement of lifestyle based on miniaturization and efficiency, and less on brutal increase of input at stable comfort per energy ratio.

    I am a regular visitor to Japan, Tokyo in particular. The Japanese have embraced the need for overmanning in the service industries to an extent that looks really odd to a European. Every minor construction job has a dedicated pavement warden to direct pedestrians and traffic around non-existent dangers, every cafe has spare waiters, every train-station has staff on every platform, and in the rush hours every 'free' pedestrian crossing near a transport hub has a flag-waving crossing supervisor. It has certainly ensured that they keep unemployment at a reasonable level.


    I have discussed this overmanning phenomenon with people in government and senior staff at 2 large employers (Mitsubishi and Toyota) and all say they give/get very generous tax-breaks and direct subsidies for employing 'spare' low-level staff. It is part of the Abe economic plan to absorb those displaced by automation and the loss of manufacturing to other far east nations (China, Taiwan, Vietnam, etc).


    Japan is looking ahead and getting ready for a huge social change, while in Europe and the USA we just wring our hands and say 'mass unemployment is inevitable'. :(


  • This applies to hot fusion i.e. brute force approach only.
    I just hope, the cold fusion would be possible to utilize in cheap devices, for example during electrolysis or plasma discharge.
    Actually the very meaning of cold fusion is just to make the fusion cheaper and more accessible.

  • Quote

    This is why it is so much better to have actual nuclear reactions (Ni-H) that release millions of electron volts rather than hydrino reactions.


    It depends. The nuclear reactions bring negative connotations for users and there is always risk of abuse of cold fusion for terrorist / military purposes.

  • One consequence of free fuel based Jevons's paradox is the production of clean water in massive amounts.

    People like to live in deserts but at the same time have unlimited access to pure water for their golf courses, pools, gardens, and lawns. Water generation and management will require massive amounts of cheap energy to accomplish. As the population of the earth continues to increase, people for a start will move into the Sahara desert, the Arabian desert, and the American southwest. To keep these places green, pipeline networks from desalination plants on the coast will penetrate to every square meter of these now unusable parcels of land.


    The other use of nearly free power will be massive use of air conditioning to beat the desert heat.

  • Evangelists for driverless cars see a bright future coming down the road: thousands of lives saved, countless driving hours freed up, cityscapes transformed with traffic jams vanquished.


    Renault-Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn summed up the transformations as a "reshuffling of the cards" for the industry.


    "There is a new game, let's see who is going to be able to prevail," he told an audience in Davos.


    In public, auto bosses are focusing on the ways that going driverless is going to change our lives for the better.


    Ghosn painted a picture of a world where we are liberated not only to check our emails or watch TV while in the driver's seat, but also run an entire office on the move.

    "You can be in the car and do everything you're doing in the house or in the office—except that it's mobile," he enthused.


    A salesman can take his house and office on the road in a road cruiser on a perpetual road trip just like a migrant bedouin tribesmen on his camel in days long past.


    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-01-…-driverless-cars.html#jCp

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