Potential Economic Impact of LENR Technology in Energy Markets

  • Summary about lenr and the economy of Alexander Kleehaus


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    Abstract


    There has been a huge discussion about the technology of Low Energy Nuclear Reaction (LENR) devices. Some of the common assumptions about this technology discuss the projected major transformation of our present society in points of infrastructure, cost of power and power storage, but a clear economic impact simulation in a business plan systematic review manner with different parameters and scenarios is still missing. The question is how will the lives of people be affected by LENR and how will power industry adapt the potential huge changes in infrastructure and cost of power. There is no doubt that access to LENR will change the lives of average citizens for that matter. The here described model is a monte-carlo simulation scenario model to find a proposed business and socioeconomic value of the LENR technology as impact on current infrastructure, economy and citizens of a given country. The simulation is a good tool for pricing discussions, price modeling and predictive modeling on the technology impact. The validation of the model over common mechanisms is work-in-progress.

  • Thank you David. An interesting snapshot- as you say, it is a work in progress. The 'elephant in the room' is of course not directly addressed in this scenario. That is the huge and largely unexplored effect of the radical diversion/elimination of the vast rivers of money that currently flow backwards along the various power creation and distribtion networks and into the coffers of state or private 'natural monopolies'. Discussing and calculating the benefit of a few pounds more in the domestic purse is relatively easy, but I don't expect that the owners/distributors of our current energy sources will remain complacent while their assets are being thrown on the bonfire of progress.


    A variety of economic and geological factors (like earthquake and tsunami risk) have encouraged Japanese power/engineering monopolies to take a different approach to distributed power systems - although these still depend (in most cases) on the gas network. It might make at least a partial model for the roll-our of domestic scale LENR. I recently wrote a paper on this topic for private circulation, below is a short extract, with some surprising statistics.


    "Japan’s ENE-FARM program is arguably the most successful fuel cell commercialisation program in the world. ENE-FARM has supported the deployment of well over 120,000 residential fuel cell units and is providing proof that long term public-private partnerships can push new technology into the marketplace. New models coming on the market in 2015 are smaller, more efficient, cheaper and more easily installed than previous models. Models have been developed for apartment buildings as well as for homes and are being offered as a customer option by apartment complex developers, along with other appliance options. New units can operate independently if the power grid fails – a response to consumer concerns over electric power reliability in post-Fukushima Japan. While a number of companies have participated in development and early deployment, the main participants today are Panasonic and Toshiba, which offer PEM units, and Aisin Seiki, offering SOFC units. The PEM units are exceptionally durable, achieving greater than 60,000 hours while cycling daily, an achievement that a few years ago would have been regarded as wildly impossible.

    Panasonic claims its 2015 model achieves 95% combined heat and electrical efficiency. Earlier models were estimated at 80% to 90%, and manufacturers compare those efficiencies to grid efficiency of 35% to 40%. The units operate in partnership with the grid, cycling on and off in response to the home’s demand for electricity and hot water. The overall result is a reduction of as much as 50% in household CO2 emissions, and a consumer electricity cost savings of ¥60,000 to ¥75,000.

    Osaka Gas, which is offering fuel cell units in combination with rooftop solar power for new homes, claims even better performance, a 57% reduction in household CO2 and a consumer savings of ¥129,000."


    (Current exchange rate, $1 = 112 Yen)

  • Panasonic claims its 2015 model achieves 95% combined heat and electrical efficiency. Earlier models were estimated at 80% to 90%, and manufacturers compare those efficiencies to grid efficiency of 35% to 40%.


    The best cascaded mulistep turbo generators have about 60% carnot efficieny!


    The long range grid in average dissipates 10% of the feed in current. The local grid adds an other 10%. If you move it into a storage lake like in Switzerland this adds an other 20% of waste.


    Now, if you plug in your vacuum cleaner with 2kW, then you waste 80%, because such cleaners are nonsense. The same holds if you run your grand-mothers frigo, tumbler etc.. until he dies...


    Fuel cells are great for grid stabilty and that is what we need together with the green energies. But everybody from the energy mafia is telling us we can't get grid stabilty without their old, dirty coal burners...


    Now this explains, why it is not discussed in main stream media. (PS: EON did just write off an other 15 Billion - or all their old power plants.....)

  • A similar take of Tom Whipple on the Great Energy Transition of Brilliant Light Power. Apparently the great plans and expectations isn't what the human society is extraordinarily lacking with respect to every breakthrough finding. The scope of their actual replications is way more modest.


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    Now this explains, why it is not discussed in main stream media


    Power scandal exposed, 750,000 smart energy meters may give wrong readings, errors are up to 600%. The central energy based economy is the gold mine for governments - not only they can control the masses by controlling the redistribution of energy, but the energy tax and dwindles represent the basis of their power and economy.


  • To add a little new information about the scale and ambitions of Japanese fuel-cell (heat and power) project:-


    "The Japanese government has a long term goal of 5.3 million fuel cell installations by 2030. The total, industrial and commercial, CHP system capacity reached 9.5 GW in 2011 and a targeted capacity of 22 GW is predicted by 2030.


    In order to meet 15% of the domestic electricity demand using CHP by 2030, an investment of approximately US$60 billion is required. Major companies like Panasonic, Eneos (JX Nippon Oil & Sanyo), Aisin Seiki Co. Ltd and Toshiba (have) successfully commercialized PEMFC CHP systems...."


    There is a chance, slim but a chance, they would throw money like this at a promising LENR system. Fingers Crossed!

  • Thus (a) Not true of large battery packs. (b) Has nothing to do with the price of cheese.

    The cost of lithium battery pack for an electric car is surprisingly low $5,499 (after a $1,000 credit for turning in the old pack, which is required), plus installation fees and tax. The installation is estimated at roughly 3 hours of labor.


    The number of jobs related to auto repair will be greatly reduced due to the simplicity of the electric car, computerized diagnostics and plug and play maintainence.

  • Motor-cars destroyed the buggy-whip industry, but somehow the economy survived.

    Actually, the horse population peaked around 1929 and the economy collapsed at that time. In 1939, an economics professor at Cornell made the case that horse transportation employed far more people than automobiles did, and the demise of horse transportation that was a major cause of the depression. I do not know whether he was right, but the larger principle is right. The economy as it was in 1900 did not survive automation through the 1950s. Working hours collapsed, from 60 to 80 hours a week to 40. Workers were given Saturdays off. People did far less work. If the trend had continued, people would be working 20 hours a week or less today. It did not continue, but unemployment and underemployment are a dire problem worldwide. There are more unemployed people in China than there are employed people in the U.S.


    No trend lasts forever. You cannot have ever-improving robots and AI without eventually putting nearly every worker out of a job. Automation must eventually render human labor worthless. See:




    Cold fusion in will drastically reduce the labor needed to supply energy.

  • The automatisation process is core to the long movement replacing work by capital, slaves with machines,n employees with IT... AI will continue...


    My interpretation of the problem, being in contact with liberal (mean free market, free lifestyle here) and with marxist/statist cultures, is that the marxist model of industrial revolution introduced this vision of economy, quire real in Western developped economy :

    • separation of population who earn their life from wages or from capital (at least mentally, because pension fund are capitalist income)
    • concentration of capital in few wealthy hand.(No more really true because of investment fund, where contributers are pensioner, insured people, bank client)


    In poorer emerging economy, and before industrial revolution, people were much more paid for their capital, or their work, and often for working with their capital as entrepreneur (eg: farmer exploiting their land, fisher exploiting his boat).


    today situation of poor people in emerging countries is surprisingly more capitalist that people imagine, but probably the kind of capitalism that is repressed in france, like AirBnb, Heetch,


    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…hird-world_b_6751634.html


    what is important is to give access to the capital to everybody.

    An industrial revolution allows to redistribute the wealth, destroying old capital, and creating new one.

    If the regulation, corruption, complexity, is too strong there is risk that capital concentrate in few competent and influential hands. This is what QE have caused in finance, a very regulated domain where only the biggest could compete. Fintech are trying to attack the domain, but it will not be easy as gouvernement defend big actors against challengers (in the name of unemployment, LOL).


    Micro-capitalism;, micro-entrepreneurship, is the only way to avoid a catastrophe, and I'm not over-optimistic about that.

    Our future is to exploit IA, IT, bots, not to be exploited by them... Will most of us be able to exploit a machine that does all the job?

  • 1- There is a financial system, which sees the future and carries out operations in the present. The stock market.


    2- We know that financial markets are totally inflated with excessive leverage, which makes a little expected change, can make a big implosion.


    3- One of the main indicators of the stock market is the price of a barrel of oil, with many companies in the energy sector, whether oil or not.


    Yes, we add all that, then:


    Hell:
    If LENR is confirmed, with very specific evidence, it is not necessary for LENR to reach the public to make a great impact. First many oil companies will break, and then the alternatives and finally the banks will all go to the bottom. Governments bail out banks, assigning these losses to taxpayers. And there will come a revolution, not only energetic, but citizens asking the heads of bankers, investment funds, and politicians.


    Heaven:
    The price of the products is going to lower, since its main cost, is the energetic cost (production and transport). There will be more merchandise traveling on airplanes and less on ships. And therefore more global competition.
    It will have to rethink the work and the income in the society. A minimum universal income will be implemented,


    You will have to prepare with a lot of Pop Corn.

  • Micro-capitalism;, micro-entrepreneurship, is the only way to avoid a catastrophe, and I'm not over-optimistic about that.


    You will not get your microcapitalism without a lot of state intervention. Otherwise it is might makes right all the way until a few gigantic corporations control everything and set the terms of engagement, as we learned with Standard Oil and US Steel in the late 1800's, when regulation was very laissez faire. The trick in my mind is not having a lot of red tape, but having the right kind of red tape.

  • You are right, it looks like agrarian reforms.

    However currently most state intervention reinforce paradoxically the monopoly by adding complexity, requiring lawyers, experts, IT infrastructure.

    The direction is the anti-trust laws, but given the power of big actors, and their (hidden through "employment" risk) popularity, it seems hard.

    Anyway, it can work with platforms.

    If you see Uber (not best example) and similar , flixbus, airbnb, it allows small player to harness their unstructured power.

    Note that the value of AirBnB is ridiculous compared to the value of all the houses and rooms it allows to enter market.

    Imagine that GE or EDF harness homemade LENR power in a billion of household, it could be a giant, but a dwarf compared to their "prosumers".


    Prosumers should be the rule in future world.

    In some emerging economies, prosuming is natural.

    You buy a car not only to travel, but to rent it to your neighbor who drive neighbors to the nearby cities...

    Imagine that you buy your PC not only to play, but also to mine bitcoins, or solve protein folding (Qarnot sell radiators who work for Grid Computers in researsh)...

  • I like the thought of the kind of microcapitalism you describe very much. I am pessimistic that the so-called "sharing economy" is heading quite in that direction at the moment; another reading of it is that it is the first step towards a new kind of serfdom, where most people are underemployed and must hustle to make a living wage, and a much smaller number are quite comfortable and lead a middle-class lifestyle or better.

  • Sharing economy sometime is just micro-capitalism (sometime not, just saving money together), where you exploit your hidden capital, instead of being forced to sell your arms for wages...

    The alternative is just being used in a hierarchy, obeying. This is the prefered model of manypolitic organization I agree, because instead of fighting to optimize your work and be paid for it, you can revendicate to the boss and get an increase.


    Robots just mean the capital will be more productive, thus cheaper. The big question is if it will need big centralized units like Intel CPU foundries, and distributed production like AirBnB.

    IT, mobile economy, 3D printers, blockchains, but also amazon-like platforms, make possible a future where individual can do business only mastering a small part of the supply chain, like a worker in a big factory, but being your own boss.


    Note that producers is also a client and if the producers have to produce for cheap, the client he is will buy for cheap. What is to avoid is a platform in a monopolistic position, not because it takes the least commission and gives the most advantages to both producers and consumers, but just abuse of locked clients.

    A platform who don't treat well it's producers, like one that don't treat well it's clients, should pay the bill... The emerging Uber workers unions is really a great thing, and a things to follow. Even best is the alternative platforms who hire the disgusted drivers.

    In a way the problem is exactly the same as with a 19th century company, except now people can move, and clients can click on link beside.


    Note also that sharing economy is today the "butter in the spinach" for many outsiders in France, both allowing cheaper consumption, but also small benefit for little pleasure in life.


    It gives a little chance for some people to have control on their life, while all else is fixed by a locked society (talking for France), with no other way to improve.


    We are in a transition mode... Failure of previous model is causing people to play with the rules...


    Some think about basic income, to give a safety net so that people can afford to take risk (not the usual vision in France), to get education, to acquire capital and start a business...

    Some think about a basic wealth, like was the small land given to farmers... some think of basic loan...


    Some think the basic income (or wealth) can just pay itself (through simple taxes) by the activity it creates when it unlock initiatives (not just allowing inactivity)...


    if the future is not micro-capitalist, then it will be a service future, where the mass of salaried people gives human service, art, fun to the one owning the robots who produces foods and goods.

    This should mean that the price of those jobs will grow until it have the same value as the robots production. There is sociological resistance today to pay service at high price, but things may evolve.


    and once people get well paid for making the capitalist happy, why not buy some capital and create micro-capitalism... like buying a food machine, a car bot, a share of US Robotics.


    There can be sociological resistance, and regulation, to oppose that.

    In France "sharing" economy (home capitalism) is fought desperately, and since long we practically have prevented people to invest retirement fund in shares, to push state bonds. The results is that here people are mostly rent-owner who ignore it, working in a foreign owned company.


    LENR, as it is naturally smallscale, promote more than many other technology a microcapitalism, or an autarcic, model. Anyway it can be implemented the Soviet way, with big powerplants, if regulation prevent local usage. My bet is that it will be the first rank of regulation, to forbid local production.

  • That is the claimed position, but they defend also the established big business.

    One example of such behavior is finance, where big regulation promotes big actors, preventing newcomers and access by small players or even people...

    Neoliberalism is a myth, there is crony capitalism (mercantilism too), very common like is finance today, where states protect you, and banal capitalism where you pay your mistakes, that common people experience locally.


    Maybe we are going too far from the subject... This question is hotter than reality of LENR and will never be solved by evidences. Future will say who is right.


    Today I am just happy for the Chinese who get out of absolute poverty, even if all is not easy.

    they will love to have cheaper energy, to dump their wood stove, and coal electricity.

  • That is the claimed position, but they defend also the established big business.

    One example of such behavior is finance, where big regulation promotes big actors, preventing newcomers and access by small players or even people...

    Neoliberalism is a myth, there is crony capitalism (mercantilism too), very common like is finance today, where states protect you, and banal capitalism where you pay your mistakes, that common people experience locally.


    Maybe we are going too far from the subject... This question is hotter than reality of LENR and will never be solved by evidences. Future will say who is right.


    You are right, the problem is that the fundamental laws of economy dont are used.


    The fundamental laws of economy are: 1- (gain) profit. 2- competition, when this 2 laws are working, then we have a market. If this two laws are not implemented, then we have "crony capitalism", "neoliberalism", too big to fail, etc.


    You will not get your microcapitalism without a lot of state intervention. Otherwise it is might makes right all the way until a few gigantic corporations control everything and set the terms of engagement, as we learned with Standard Oil and US Steel in the late 1800's, when regulation was very laissez faire. The trick in my mind is not having a lot of red tape, but having the right kind of red tape.


    Right, but we can not fix a educative problem with more rules, dont matter the amount of rules, a egoistic human always will find ways to bypass the rules. The real solution is a real change in the root, in the educative system, to develop the right values of science and love in the citizens, not indoctrinated humans that we have now. and when i speak of science, is not about our selfserving definition of science that keep LERN out of development, because our science is really dogmatic.



    Yes all the society are in a transition mode, http://mutualwelfare.org/ and LENR can make this happen more faster.


    For understanding the problem of economy, we need to understand two basic concepts: Money and Interest. When we understand these concepts well, then we can understand Theorem A + B as expressed in 1920 by C.H. Douglas.


    Https://bienestarmutuo.org/ing…-sueldo-basico-universal/


    And there are two options: 1- reset the monetary system. (It was what we did in the old times) 2 - Give money to people.

    Since it is no longer the kings who govern the world, but the bankers, option 1, is discarded. (Unless the citizens from below organize and do it).


    So, the basic income is going to be a reality, and we also agree is that if it is high, $ 2,000 a month, it will produce problems. But if it is low, $ 500, which is what we propose, a minimum universal income, then will be a redefinition of what is "work" and "social security".


    At that point, money will no longer have the supreme importance it has today. Since with little money you can have everything, and a lot of money will not allow you to have everithing, in fact, there are already people who do not sell their factories to the highest bidder, but the one that goes more according to your vision for the factory, with its values. Money stops mattering, that is the direction.


    Finally we do not need more taxes to implement a universal minimum income, we can take that money from the tax havens with a tax on those transactions and take money from the military budget. Especially if we start giving it just to women and older adults. (Young men go to work!).

  • One point I've seen is that one way to distribute wealth is to produce things with less efforts, and let common people get it for cheap.

    Robots, LENR, vertical farming, 3D printing, gives the opportunity for common people to get things for cheaper, or even to produce themselves. If some nasty "capitalist" try to abuse of it's monopoly, people will be able to raise their middle finger.

    This finger capacity is maybe more powerful than laws, which explain probably the desperate attacks against self-industry.


    Here I see that many people are sad, because they have a fixed salary (wages), and fixed expenses (loan/rent,energy,water,telecom,cantina, school, bus/metro/car), and there is nearly no way to work harder to buy little piece of happiness. It is also consumerist society which transformed some bonus satisfactions (vacations, nice car), into social requirements (especially with kids pressure)...
    This is where some freedom to work hard for you own good, like repairing your house or sharing economy, gives oxygen to common people.


    Wages are good in avoiding people to starve when things get bad, but some people see also that it prevent them to control their life.

  • One point I've seen is that one way to distribute wealth is to produce things with less efforts, and let common people get it for cheap.


    This is what we call healthy capitalism, which are the two laws that I have already described. https://bienestarmutuo.org/las…amentales-de-la-economia/


    Robots, LENR, vertical farming, 3D printing, gives the opportunity for common people to get things for cheaper, or even to produce themselves. If some nasty "capitalist" try to abuse of it's monopoly, people will be able to raise their middle finger.

    This finger capacity is maybe more powerful than laws, which explain probably the desperate attacks against self-industry.


    That is the power of the minimin income, of separation of slave work from work.


    Here I see that many people are sad, because they have a fixed salary (wages), and fixed expenses (loan/rent,energy,water,telecom,cantina, school, bus/metro/car), and there is nearly no way to work harder to buy little piece of happiness. It is also consumerist society which transformed some bonus satisfactions (vacations, nice car), into social requirements (especially with kids pressure)...


    That's what robert kiyosaki calls the hamster cycle.


    This is where some freedom to work hard for you own good, like repairing your house or sharing economy, gives oxygen to common people.


    Wages are good in avoiding people to starve when things get bad, but some people see also that it prevent them to control their life.


    yes, the People need a purpose in life, a motive beyond material.