NASA: New Paper about Experimental Progress

  • Doing anything by way of an experiment once is slim proof, something that applies to both papers.. And since Davies negative replication came after NASA's positive he would logically be required to theorise about reasons for false positives. I have no doubt that the large and very experienced NASA crew also though a lot about potential false positives, and could if required written a half-dozen papers on the possible causes for these. But since they were 'head over the parapet' first they probably saw little reason to expend ink on explaining something which as far as they were jointly concerned was not the case. If they had as much doubt as you have, Tom, they would never have published.


    So I agree with the first sentence here - which would be the case for not publishing the unusual result. If all you have is slim proof, then something never before noted and unexpected is likely an anomaly. But that is a recipe for never publishing anything unusual. Properly, the caveats that make the results weak could be mentioned.


    Otherwise... You seem to think that publishing of experimental results should be somehow conditioned on belief. I think the reverse. Experimenters should (many do) do their best to make results transparent and strong. Where there are known potential issues they should explicitly acknowledge them. For example, in this case, since radon progeny is a well known issue here (I guessed it myself in print here for one of the amateur false positives, and it turned out to be confirmed as that) , I'd expect them to comment and note the methodology they used and whether that made differential radon progeny pickup likely. If they had done that their results would be stronger, and whether the result is replicated or not their credibility publishing would be better. I see no reason not to do this, and every reason to do it.


    Equally, now, if they are confident there remains a mystery and their results are sound they could do two things. (1) disclose the methodology that allows them that confidence. (2) repeat the experiment and obtain another positive with better checks. Just as Davies did, when he thought there might be a problem in his first replication. For such an important result - of real interest to many people - anyone would go the extra mile if they could.


    Why you expect them to remain silent in that case I do not understand.

  • Quote

    You know nothing about this, so I suggest you refrain from speculating about it. I know of several reasons why it may have failed.


    I only know what I read. Perhaps you can clarify this for us since you seem to have better information.

  • How boring ...


    https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.02380

    LERF_2017_Workshop_NASA_Effort_Mar_15_17_Final.pptx


    Dates:

    Mar 2107 - Benyo/Jefferson Lab pptx >>>> Apr 2016 - zero indipendent result JPL, submitted to Arxiv NOT from author Sept 2017.

    In both cases question is EXACTLY the same - ONE year long Glenn Lab people at work on a false positive already explained from Caltech via the Radon trick, and DOE LERF at the end. Bizarre.

    • Official Post

    Otherwise... You seem to think that publishing of experimental results should be somehow conditioned on belief.


    What on earth makes you think that? You could not be more wrong. However, explain to me how a scientist could publish results that he/she does not believe? That would be stupid.

    Why you expect them to remain silent in that case I do not understand.


    Another strange idea about my beliefs and expectations you have picked up entirely on your own. If they are free to do so they may feel it necessary and worthwhile to respond. However, politics we know nothing of may dictate what happens next.

  • THHuxley wrote

    "Scientists are expected to have humility when dealing with new things. It helps keep everyone sane."


    THHuxley wrote

    "It is academic, because the IH replication failed. Still, I'd like to debug this"


    I guess scientists sometimes err.They are only human.But humility is a wonderful virtue.


    Dear Dr Prado-Estevez

    I think that your “Lattice confinement” report which shows theoretically that low eV’s are needed to stimulate deuterium fusion is a welcome change. Bravo.

    The report connects well with a preprint by Mizuno Tadayuki in which he shows evidence for some form of deuterium fusion in specially prepared nickel under electrical stimulation. Although he uses higher stimulation voltages (in the range (50 to 150eV) this may be necessary to compensate for the diffusion and other kinetic difficulties you have mentioned.The Mizuno preprint is attached.

    One small query.

    Possible small error in report,Is it possible that the Ni(2.3eV)and Pd(4.7)eV have been interchanged? ? Pg70

    I have use a T of approximately 450 K and the Fig 2 log scale graph and reverse calculated from your reactivities in Section 3.1(1:7 x10_10 cm3/s and 1:2x10_9 cm3/s).This give me a (U/kT) for Ni of 102, for Pd of 63

    I find that interchanging the two eV’s allows me to explain why the Ni (U/kT) of 102 is larger than the Pd (U/kT) 63.

    The Ni eV needs to be larger than the Pd eV in my opinion.

    I may be making some silly assumption ..but I myself have made very silly errors invisible to me in my own reports.

    Yours sincerely

    Robert Bryant

    Research Pharmacist

  • THHuxley

    "My view would be that such certainty from them is part of a belief system which includes fear of persecution and the whole thing has little substance."


    Hebrew11.1

    " Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen"

    Courtesy of the ripmaster/ripplemaster.


    The ripplemaster has caused the substance to be unseen. Why?

  • @Bocjin


    I'm now confused by your posts.

    (1) Do you acknowledge that eqn (14),(15),(16) show over a wide range of projectile energies in presence of electronic screening that increasing temperature (or non-temperature projectile energy) decreases cross section.

    (2) Do you acknowledge this is inconsistent with the generally held view that screening can be well approximated as a fixed screening energy Es which is subtracted from the Coulomb potential Eg.

    (3) Do you agree that this paper affirms that generally held view.


    Based on your answer, we can proceed.


    I'm looking at the source material from which (6) and (15) are derived. It will take me a bit longer before I can say what exactly is the source of the inconsistency.

  • THHuxley "It will take me a bit longer before I can say what exactly is the source of the inconsistency"


    My advice to you is RTFP.

    The only inconsistency which I have found awaits feed back from Dr Prado-Estevez,, the source.

    It is Sunday in California.


    My 2nd advice to you is also that you should not approach the paper with a "Debug" mentality

    but with an open mind.


    Otherwise you shall never find the light.


  • That is not helpful - because you are not answering my questions directly. So I can't determine your rationale for disagreeing with me.


    I don't know whta you mean by "debug" mentality, nor open mind. I approach any paper as something which I attempt to understand. In the process I may find issues, or receive enlightenment, or both. I can't see enlightenment coming from anything other than understanding. Can you?

  • THHuxley"I don't know whta you mean by "debug" mentality"


    My mother "I am hoohaa with you" (when I was a silly child a few decades ago.)


    Let me recount to you my recollection of my interaction with you about your notion that Mizuno's excess heat was due to combustion....


    THH Just to add an extra check. Enthalpy of combustion of H2 is 280kJ/mol or 0.14MJ/g.So if (let us say) atmospheric O2 could get in to the reactor we have available chemical energy at approximately this level - I'm ignoring the fact that we have H here as Hydride, which would maybe increase the enthalpy a bit? So for this output you'd need about 17g of H2 stored (in this case 34g of D2). At a loading of 1 that (whether H2 or D2) turns into roughly 900g of Ni - so we cannot possibly store anything like enough H or D in the 20g Ni mesh. However the reactor is 20kg stainless steel. The average loading, given 17g of H (or 34g D) is about 5%.This does not look impossible to me - but I'm no expert on the diffusion of hydrogen into stainless steel so cannot say.T he conditions here look vaguely plausible for this mechanism. High pressure for the loading. near vacuum for the unloading. You would need a slow O2 leak and some way to take the H2O out of the system (I guess a vacuum pump would do that).There are a lot of unknowns to check here which could knock this down, but worth checking. EDIT - not high pressure for loading, if 500Pa!


    BOCIJN There are 3.4 mg of D2 in the reactor. Enthalpy of combustion 0.07 Mj/g of D2.

    If Xs energy due to combustion of D2. 3.4 mg x 0.07 MJ/g = 0.000238 MJ.

    Xs energies observed are much larger.

    Mizuno report ".almost 30 days. Typical excess heat during the time is estimated as 300   W.

    Total energy is thus ~2.6×108 J. The amount of D2 used was 20 cm3 STP. ….


    THH How is this 3.4mg of D2 computed? During the prep phase it does not seem clear to me how much D2 was added? In the report it refers to this quantity as being used during the test, but does not say whether that is just the heat production part, though this is implicit because it is comparing this usage with possible fusion enthalpy. In which case it leaves open how much was used in the prep part.


    BOCIJN 1 mole of H2 is 2.0158 grams.
    Density = mass/volume. In g/L it would be (2.0158)/(22.4) =0.089 g/L 0.089 mg/ml D2 =twice = 0.178 mg/ml

    20 ml = ~3.5 mg at STP give or take a few nanograms

     

    Conclusion.

    THH went off in a half-assed manner online. He half read the report.

    Did not pick that Mizuno wrote ' 20cm3' in the report. To pre-prepared calculations by BOCIJN showing that

    his notion of combustion enthalpy was folly, THH reacted very humanly.

     

    THH It is academic, because the IH replication failed. Still, I'd like to debug this.

    But not sure I have the motivation to spend long amts of time on it given the IH work.


    Forgive me THH, but I am hoohaa with you. You willhave to wait for the author's reply.

    You have emailed Estevez , Right?

    It is Sunday in California

    I hope you have shown humility....... o/wise ...you may not get a reply.

  • Bocjin,


    You seem to have got some weird ideas about me and your mother which I'll ignore.


    You also seem not to like me looking at all this stuff and when there is strong prior information that something does not work trying to find out why it does not. In that case attempted replication by a company desperately wanting to find working LENR that failed (twice).


    I said that I was not wholly convinced by this combustion idea. For various reasons. However, I don't see your to and fro there disproves it because I asked how the qty of H2 was computed, and you did not answer. I am, you may be surprised to learn, still in possession of my faculties and therefore I remember my Chemistry A level (I was quite good at it and got top grade, not that that means much) so of course I was not asking to compute density from volume but rather whether during the conditioning phase volume was fixed. You say M wrote 20cm^3 - which I too remember - but exactly what that applied to I was not clear from his text - because he was not clear whether the reactor volume was kept at pressure by being connected to an H2 source.


    If it helps, I suspect the issue with these results is more likely something else not obvious (to me). And I said that before.

  • Statement 1 THHuxley"I don't know whta you mean by "debug" mentality


    Statement 2. THHuxley"Still, I'd like to debug this. "

    So you cannot understand the connection between Statement 1 and Statement 2

    "Alevels huh ,top of the class" good for you. why didn't you use these skills instead of asking the question

    this was my answer to your question

    BOCIJN 1 mole of H2 is 2.0158 grams.
    Density = mass/volume. In g/L it would be (2.0158)/(22.4) =0.089 g/L .0.089 mg/ml D2 =twice = 0.178 mg/ml

    20 ml = ~3.5 mg at STP give or take a few nanograms


    If you can't understand this then I appreciate how you can't understand "the few Ev's" paper.

    I doubt whether the author is going to take the time to spell it out to you. RTFP.

    It will be about 9.am in California in 5 hours time.

    Don't hold your breath.

  • Statement 1 THHuxley"I don't know whta you mean by "debug" mentality


    Statement 2. THHuxley"Still, I'd like to debug this. "

    So you cannot understand the connection between Statement 1 and Statement 2


    Bocjin - I'm not trying to antagonise you, so I don't understand why you are personalising this (or so it seems to me)?


    Re statements 1 and 2 - they are quite different. Everyone knows what debugging is. A wish to do this when there is a mysterious positive not subsequently validated by people with the resources and wish to do so and who act with cooperation of the original experimenter is only natural.


    You elevate this, guessing at motivation and labelling the activity, into "you have a debug mentality". That implies that the love of debugging comes first - something any programmer would tell you is silly, since it is a thankless job where most things tried do not work (at least it is like that in difficult cases). The analogy with this paper, where there is something wrong, is not exact but reasonable. And the motivation comes not from a love of debugging but a wish to get things working properly which is the same as a wish to understand fully what is being said.


    You may disagree with me about the likelihood of the Mizuno positive result being real given the extensive IH attempt to replicate. I'm not saying it is impossible this result is real, just that the failed replication makes this pretty unlikely. Don't you think IH would chase even a 1% chance of something real, so if they give up they have good reasons? They can, still, be mistaken. But that is less likely than a one-off initial experiment being mistaken, since they had Mizuno to put them right if needed, but he did not have their tech guys input. I'm sure Dewey will comment here if he reckons for some reasons M's stuff might likely work even though IH have given up on it.


    I don't see any of this argument as contentious, or specific to LENR.


    i should also say that I'm grateful to those here who post interesting stuff, like e.g. the shielding in highly coupled plasmas theory paper above. I've been spurred to learn a lot of new theory by it - specifically from refs 2 & 3 (Icimaru) of the paper. I promise to write up results in a form that is accessible here some time - but - it is quite complex so a quick summary won't be any use to anyone, and writing it all up properly will take some time. My current view is that the inconsistency in the paper remains, but all the equations are justified, however the way that they are used is not - and this boils down to a distinction between temperature and non-thermal kinetic energy which is not followed. You can see that explaining that properly takes quite some time - and in the process of doing that I'll doubtless sharpen my views. At very least I will properly explain Figure 2 which takes a prize for being the most misleading graph I've seen for quite a while.

  • I only know what I read.

    Okay. Where did you read that this was a close replication that failed? What makes you think this failure indicates there is something wrong with Mizuno's present work? If you "only know" this from something you read, what was it that you read?

    Perhaps you can clarify this for us since you seem to have better information.

    I suggest you ask the authors.

  • Quote

    Okay. Where did you read that this was a close replication that failed?


    Just what I read here. Plus the obvious: given that they had Mizuno "in hand" and with their keen interest in making LENR work, IH would have given him pretty much any help he needed. So what DOES he need? 20 more years? Millions of dollars more?



    Quote

    What makes you think this failure indicates there is something wrong with Mizuno's present work?


    Present work? What present work? Those cutsey named high power reactors? I don't know about those because nobody says much about them. I assume Mizuno got superb support from IH -- they have nothing but money and resources. If he couldn't show them something convincing with that sort of help, what makes you think he has anything worthwhile at all?

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