Mavericks- and why science needs them.

  • Interested observer "bocijin’s inference that any correlation is meaningless is suspect at best."


    That is your inference. I was interested in numbers rather than rhetoric


    Fascinate the forum with your correlation coefficient for this statement


    "but the frequent correlation between LENR acceptance and climate denial is fascinating."


    or is there "no interest" anymore

  • The world would be worse off it if weren't for a mix of mavericks and conformist scientists. Mavericks like Tesla really push the boundaries of science so much further, but he also believed that his pigeons spoke to him through light beams from their eyes. Laser pigeon talk is something that would get you fired from a conventional job. Those conventional jobs though often are were the more wild theories go to get run through the gauntlet of proper verification. Without the guys doing the boring grunt work in the labs, the dreamers would not have a lasting impact on the world. Tesla pioneered the production of microwaves, but it took others to turn that into ovens and radar systems, and wifi routers. No man is an island, but some are peninsulas.

  • There are a lot of independent researchers nowadays. Far more than most people will expect. Because there are no unlimited jobs available in science. Thus when you don’t get the job you will take a “normal” job and you will try to do research in off time.


    Besides that when a researcher is retired, he or she don't want to stop their research. Most of them become independent researchers after a couple of years (no affiliation with a research institute or university any more).


    One should expect that – because of the large number of independent researchers – there is a huge amount of new ideas in physics and related branches of science. Indeed, there is. We call it “speculative physics” and the creators of all these hypotheses are not only the independent researchers, the biggest part comes from the scientific professional group itself (universities, scientific institutes, etc.). Just because they have the best chances to get their papers published.


    Nowadays every researcher is forced to publish a couple of papers a year. Most is non essential because you cannot publish so much important papers. Most scientist are yearning for one impressive paper in their whole career but there are only a few who will succeed.


    How to distinguish between a really important new concept and “rubbish”? You have the title and the abstract of the contents of the papers to make the decision to “read or not to read”. I have scanned (reading quickly) about 120 papers during the last months and none of these papers showed to be important for me (physics). So I have spoiled my time…


    Does science need mavericks? I really don’t know. I suppose that science needs reliable researchers who try to understand all those confusing observations and outcomes of experiments. But nobody within the scientific community will deny that there are a lot of scientists who only go for the job.


    By the way… What about the research of the members of LENR-forum? You can talk about others who do the research (a really bleak pastime) or you can do it yourself. There is theoretical research and experimental research so where are all the contributions?



  • I get what you mean H.G.. There are lots of self-styled scientists and retired researchers and others who just put out a wild variety of work and theory. It has to be hard to balance the possible creative new direction that mavericks can bring with the deluge of conceptual work that doesn't ultimately lead to anything. It would require we already know everything to avoid researching the wrong directions of course, but it would be nice if flat-earther's and other really far-out pseudo-science proponents would stop muddying the waters. The fringes sometimes have some interesting things, but sometimes they are so far out it's hard to even believe anyone could think that way. Of course I say this as an amateur myself, but I try not to speak in absolutes too much when it comes to odd ideas.

  • AmishPhysicist,


    That is not exactly what I meant. I tried to say there are more than enough independent researchers to have a lot of mavericks around. Thus the problem is not the absence of mavericks. There are too much unimportant publications so you are drowning in all the hypotheses. Who will read the important paper when it is not published by Nature, Springer, etc.? Because publications about LENR will not be published in their magazines. Besides that, physicists in the field of string theory read only papers about string theory, researchers in the field of quantum gravity read only… etc., etc. Who will read papers about LENR?


    By the way, that website https://aeon.co is a nice online magazine (see the first post)..

    • Official Post

    As for all the people who worked on cold fusion/LENR over the years and got paid and/or supported for it, your guess is as good as mine as to how many it was and how much they earned and received for overhead, equipment and staff. I think it was more than a thousand scientists and more than $100M, probably much more but I don't think anyone has actually done a tally. Or perhaps you know of one? That can be believed? I mean, how much did P&F alone receive over the years from various governments and large companies?


    $100M? Chickenfeed. Divide 100M$ by1000 scientists and you get $100,000 a go. Most scientific institutions spend more than that on biscuits in a year. By the time they have deducted their generously calculated institutional overheads $100k probably amounts to enough to pay for a few weeks lab work and precious little by way of purchasing.

  • $100M? Chickenfeed. Divide 100M$ by1000 scientists and you get $100,000 a go. Most scientific institutions spend more than that on biscuits in a year.

    I think the total amount is less than $100 million, but I wouldn't know. However, it was not divided evenly among ~1,000 scientists. Most researchers got no money. They used their own money or department discretionary funding, which was a pittance. I ended up buying equipment for $5,000 or $10,000 for several of these people. I personally would probably rate as a significant source of funding for cold fusion in the 1990s, and I sure did not contribute $100 million!


    Most of the large funding grants were wasted in projects that had no chance of success, run by people who had no knowledge of cold fusion. I think the largest chunk of funding went to the NEDO program. As I recall, it was around $20 million. None of that went to scientists or electrochemists as far as I know. It was run by corporate engineers. They were instructed not to let Mizuno and other academic scientists in the door. Their papers described how they gradually rediscovered aspects of electrochemistry that people have known for decades. They could have learned all of that from a college textbook. That is according to the electochemists I know.


    Fleischmann and Pons did get a lot of money from Toyota. They made fantastic progress. Unfortunately, the project was shut down because of politics and a dispute over the potential intellectual property, according to Fleischmann.


    Probably the second or third largest program was $10 million to fund the National Cold Fusion Institute at U. Utah. That result was definitive. It was a superb set of experiments proving beyond any doubt that cold fusion produces massive amounts of tritium -- many times background, far above any possible error. See:


    http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/WillFGtritiumgen.pdf


    That result should have convinced every scientist on earth that cold fusion is a real nuclear effect. It did not convince them because of academic politics and stupidity.

  • Probably the second or third largest program was $10 million to fund the National Cold Fusion Institute at U. Utah. That result was definitive. It was a superb set of experiments proving beyond any doubt that cold fusion produces massive amounts of tritium -- many times background, far above any possible error. See:


    http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/WillFGtritiumgen.pdf


    That result should have convinced every scientist on earth that cold fusion is a real nuclear effect. It did not convince them because of academic politics and stupidity.


    This is a fascinating read. I admit I don't understand some of the details, but it does seem to show what you suggest it does. I'm having trouble figuring out their electrical conditions though. It doesn't seem to specify anywhere what voltages were used or what the exact distance was between anode and cathode. Am I just missing that or is it not included? I would really like to better understand the specifics of this experiment. It would seem they were just putting current through D2O and H2O correct? No electrolyte? No salt bridge?

    • Official Post

    I just came across this very simply written paper from the late Ken Shoulders. Only a couple of pages long, he expresses very clearly what he thought about the maverick life. Read it with your coffee, it will make you smile.


    "Definition of an Explorer:


    An Explorer is the human tip of an arrow-like probe into the future where no teachers have gone before. They say explorers are easily recognized as one rides along the frontier in a comfortable Calistoga wagon. Explorers are the ones beside the trail whose face is in the mud and have an arrow in the back. That illusion is not too far from the truth as they are frequently attacked while crossing treacherous territory all alone. For the scientific explorer, attacks most often come from the most benign looking sources—academic institutions. Explorers must be natural, self-motivated leaders and possibly those that cannot be taught, as they must learn new things for themselves instead of being taught. This characteristic alone is basis enough for an attack from the academic camp as it demonstrates nonconformity, an incorrigible act."



    http://www.keelynet.com/ shoulders/exploring.pdf

  • Quote

    Divide 100M$ by1000 scientists and you get $100,000 a go.

    But it wasn't allocated equally, as JedRothwell noted. Some investigators got several millions, others virtually nothing. Sidney Kimmel recently spent $5M or more. What has Carl Page spent? What has IH/Cherokee/Woodford spent and what are they spending now? My point was, given how simple and safe LENR is portrayed to be, it should have been possible to nail down iron clad evidence and replicable experiments that anyone could do, with the funds already spent and currently being spent.


    Quote

    Explorers are the ones beside the trail whose face is in the mud and have an arrow in the back.

    I must encourage my children to apply for that job!

  • My point was, given how simple and safe LENR is portrayed to be,

    No one who knows anything about cold fusion has EVER, EVER, E-V-E-R said it is simple. On the contrary, ever electrochemist who replicated agreed with Richard Oriani that this was the most difficult experiment they ever did. That's several hundred world class experts saying it is difficult, versus one anonymous person on the Internet (Mary Yugo) who claims it is easy.


    This is yet another confabulation by Mary Yugo. She makes up stuff which is completely contrary to the literature and to what expert says, and then she instantly believes what she -- and she alone -- said.

    • Official Post

    Alan,


    OK, I will go along with you about LENR researchers being "explorers", "tip of the arrow" types, in the sense Shoulders means, but damned if I will include Rossi in with them. Let him act like a real scientist first, then maybe.


    Real scientists BTW do not do what he did at Doral...even to save IP! Nor do they trick their friends and supporters by salting fuel ash samples (Kullander), or throw their partners under the bus (HF). They also do not throw away perfectly good, ready for market technology, that could have saved the world, and start all over again.


    If he has arrows in his back, well then, he deserves every single one of them. The others in the field do not.

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