Supercroissance (Supergrowth) - The secular stagnation will not take place - Façal Hafied

This French author propose an analysis on current potentiality of Super-growth, challengin the theory of secular stagnation.

Probably the engleash reader will be able to catch what is said with youtube translator (subtittle generation and translation) and google translator...

Very interesting if you put LENR radical disruption in perspective, and current problems of underfunding.

http://www.fypeditions.com/sup…ion-seculaire-naura-lieu/

https://translate.google.fr/tr…n-seculaire-naura-lieu%2F

Quote

Supercroissance - The secular stagnation will not take place

Façal Hafied.

After the 2008 financial crisis, the inefficiency of stimulus packages, accommodative monetary policies and growing social inequalities lead to questions about the ability of governments to control the economy.

An irresistible feeling of decline has settled.

The uberisation of the economy has proven to be destructive of many jobs. Blue-collar workers are threatened by robots and white-collar workers are also in the crosshairs of artificial intelligence.

The "fourth industrial revolution" would not keep its promises on employment and the expected prosperity is not at the rendezvous. Faÿçal Hafied asserts that the specter of a stagnation in a "secular stagnation" is only the product of a system of thought that has become obsolete: on the contrary, we are on the eve of unprecedented growth in the history of capitalism. . It shows that we are in fact going through an era of extraordinary "creative destruction", and that a golden age of innovation (blockchain , deep learning , lean start up , radical innovation, universal negative tax, etc.) is opening up. .). Even if this transition is accomplished in pain, the current centralized economy will give way to a new model of society, collaborative and participatory, base of a considerable growth supported by an unprecedented progress.

Display More

There are interesting discussion on what is blocking technology disruption, because of ageaing population with much savings but managed like accountant, not like entrepreneurs. Even VC don't do their work today.

From Shumpeter's Entrepreneur Capitalism, to Managed Capitalism for the grannies.

He also remind us that secular stagnation theory emerged in the 30s and was followed by 50s supergrowth.

I could remind similar recurrence about Malthusian meme.

the supergrowth of 1950s have displaced many French peasant (more than 90% of population at that time, now few %) to factories.

AI can also helps weak people to participate, like IT helped many people run business.

Philippe Silbezahn sees the AI allowing apperance of hybrid workers, the Centaurs

https://philippesilberzahn.com…-centaure-etes-vous-pret/

https://translate.google.fr/tr…es-vous-pret%2F&sandbox=1

the problem is that some peripheral populations are excluded from the move, not because of competence, but because of networking and geography

The French, Coming Apart

And this exclusion may even be implemented in the name of protecting them from evil modernity.

supergrowth, is more like earthquake.

Some energy accumulates, and is blocked, until a minor events makes a local obstracle breaks, causing for some time an avalanche of breaks of other obstacles and it may cause a tiny, important, or huge quake (critical failure, length of break down in a critical situation have no average).

Ther is another model for supergrowth events, it is the century waves and the maslow window

http://21stcenturywaves.com/the-maslow-window-intro/

I follow other subjects, more negatives, the luddites and malthusian movements which is dominant today, and it seems cyclical too, like earthquake or astable oscillators.

Like Façal Hafied, I feel there is an accumulation of obstacle to evolution, and accumulation of physical and knowledge resources.

In same vein, NextBigFuture propose an optimistic vision based on emerging thechnologies:

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/…decade-economic-boom.html

Quote

There was a long period of stronger productivity growth from 1917 to 1973 driven by low-cost oil and increasing usage of cars and more efficient factories.

We are entering a new period of stronger productivity growth from energy cheaper than oil, self-driving cars making transportation cheaper than car ownership, AI-Big Data and robotics boosting the efficiency of business and medicines that will cure diseases and restore vitality.

...

Thanks.

I wish the best to those who investigate on that phenomenon... I wish it can be harnessed, as it looks possible.