Something to watch while waiting
Not far away...in the same State
but with a different (weaponised) philosophy
july 2022 ICCF24 demo..
talks about 3x..XS heat
what can be expected in 2023..in Berkeley... COP 4.0?
instead of NIF's 1.002?
NIF is not far away .. geographically, at least..
Display Morejuly 2022 ICCF24 demo..
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what can be expected in 2023..in Berkeley... COP 4.0?
instead of NIF's 1.002?
NIF is not far away .. geographically, at least..
Robert your math is completely wrong. NIF successfully converted 322MJ of electrical energy into just over 3MJ of heat as the lasers are very inefficient (around 1%) which they just hand wave away.
Using heat out vs. electricity in, the COP is about 0.01. A truly historic achievement!
that's why they didn't advertise a proper COP..
it wouldn't fit with the hype..
but the high grade 332 MJ appeared as heat somewhere.. which I guess they could recover as lukewarm water..unuseful heat .. lets define COD
certificate of degradation,, as (extra fusion energy? +degraded electrical energy)/ high grade electical energy = 2? +332/332 = 1.006..
COP..COD whatever measure they use.. the result is a long way from a realisable energy solution..
but it will be interesting to see how much $ the NIF gets from the DOE..
I think there is 50 $million $ available for fusion pilot plants..but probably not for LENR fusion..
=
but the high grade 332 MJ appeared as heat somewhere.. which I guess they could recover as lukewarm water..unuseful heat ..
Probably a lot hotter than that. Much of it could be converted back into electricity, I think. It would be somewhat like a combined cycle turbine generator, that uses natural gas combustion in the first stage, and waste heat from that to produce steam for the second stage.
I hope you are joking Jed! COP is energy out divided by energy in 3.15/322 = 0.0098. Robert you are just too generous! The new short pulse lasers are exceedingly power at the cost of <1% efficiency. If I’m not wrong the previous lasers were about 5% efficient.
Perhaps we should propose a new venture: quantum coffee pots! We can boil a pot of water using an entire substation. But hey it’s surely a lot faster than waiting for my joule heater hot pot to boil…
But seriously I haven’t read the full paper yet but I would have to assume that the uncertainty factor has to be very near to or more than 3MJ.
Re; NIF
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The panel Q&A is interesting, especially the awkward moment when a retired staff member asked about the purity of the capsule. One panel member admitted that they had tungsten inclusions. This might turn out to be their get-out excuse when they quietly retract the fusion energy claim at some point next year. It seems that they are calculating the heat output from the alpha and neutron flux. However, it is conceivable that spallation from the tungsten could muddy the measurements somewhat.
These tests haven't been written up yet. However two (open access) papers from last year's shots are available below, with more details:
These tests haven't been written up yet.
So, this is science by press conference. Just as Mel Miles said!
So, this is science by press conference. Just as Mel Miles said!
It certainly is just that. One speaker at the press conference even tried to claim that they had used "peer review" - but she actually said that they had picked on a number of external collaborators to look over the data. That is still just an internal review - regardless of where those reviewers were based.
They were supposed to reach this stage 10 years ago. The site is fighting for its very existence. This announcement might just help to extend their funding...
" to extend their funding"
probably a gallant attempt by the " diverse,inclusive team" to broaden the stance from "deterrent" to planet-saving..
some at NIF may have recognised the writing on the wall for the perceived need for"deterrent"
and billions of public funding...
'
"we studied Fusion ignition to keep our
nuclear deterrent safe secure effective and reliable uh and and do so without the need for
further underground nuclear weapons testing Fusion ignition is a key process in our thermonuclear weapons"
'
'
This announcement might just help to extend their funding...
As I said: The LASER system is 20 years behind = 1 million times less power than today possible with much less energy. The only solution is decommission.
Hot fusion is a no go as you almost for sure will never be able to harvest.
Just remind you the famous children joke: "Oh mother we had the best, most tender aged steak for just 10 cents!" Mother: "But?" Oh yeah the side dish/fries did cost 50$
I really hope this delivers on the promises. It could change the world massively for the better.
I note the description of the process avoids the use of the terms "cold" and "fusion" or even "LENR", so I will be interested to see how mainstream academia takes it on board as a real and working device.
They seem to focus on commercialization.
That's really good news!
Attaches the press release
1.Latest numbers in 2/2023?
03/2019 120W COP 2.7
8/2022..
"250 Watts of heat in water at a 1.25X excess heat ratio from power out-of-thewall, steady-state, while running a small Stirling Engine. The implicit excess heat ratio was over 3X at the internal catalyst rod level."
2.
"Electron capture"
Its more about "capital capture"..I suspect..
marketing with a point of differentiation
"by using electrons in a way that previously has not been understood. The Company has developed its “controlled electron capture” technology to greatly increase the thermal output from its highly controlled pulsed electric input.
So the COP must be around 5.0 or so after it greatly increased..?
They seem to focus on commercialization.
That's really good news!
I disagree. I wish they would focus on demonstrating the effect to scientists and engineers, to persuade a large number of people that the effect is real. That would be much far cheaper and faster than commercialization. To take my favorite example, the Wright brothers tried to commercialize from 1905 to mid-1908. They got nowhere. Their rivals began to gain in them. Their problem was that very few people believed they could actually fly. On August 8, 1908, Wilbur flew in front of a crowd of experts and reporters in France. He only flew for a few minutes, but those people understood what they saw. They instantly understood that the Wrights had completely solved the problem of flight, that they "mastered the air" as one of the French observers put it. The experts told the reporters what was what, and within days Wilbur was the most famous person in Europe. Hundreds of thousands of people came to see flights. They has no difficulty commercializing after that. See:
Here's the thing that a modern person may not realize. In 1908, it was not easy to tell that an airplane was working. You had to be an expert. In 1908, dirigibles had flown long distances. Many people did not understand the difference between lighter-than-air aircraft and airplanes. When they heard that Wilbur flew for a few minutes they said, "So what? The Count Zeppelin has flown for hours." Furthermore, by 1908, some French pilots had flow for hundreds of meters. But their aircraft were barely controlled. Essentially uncontrolled. It was not really flying. More like an uncontrolled hop, like putting a propeller on a washing machine and going some distance through the air. The French did not understand 3-axis control, because they had not read the Wright's 1906 patent. Their engines were far more powerful than the Wright's, but they did not develop enough thrust, because only the Wrights understood the physics of propeller blades.
Along the same lines -- the very same lines! -- it might be difficult for a person in 2022 to tell whether a cold fusion demonstration is doing anything interesting. Whether it is actually producing anomalous energy. This is partly because people do not know much about energy. Even scientists such as Morrison did not understand the difference between power and energy, so he had no idea what F&P were saying. (See https://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/Fleischmanreplytothe.pdf) Even when people know know the difference, a badly designed demonstration will fail to convince them. If I were to set up such an demonstration, it would be convincing. I know how to do that, because I have written product manuals and taught people how to use machines in tech support. Not because I have some special genius for explaining things.
Unfortunately, the video of a test published by Brillouin is not convincing. It does not show what is needed. It is not accompanied by instruments, or explained correctly. There is no quantitative analysis. It will not convince engineers or scientists, and it will certainly not convince educated observers or ordinary people.
like putting a propeller on a washing machine and going some distance through the air.
Reminds me of what I think every time I see an SUV – wheels on a washing machine!
I disagree. I wish they would focus on demonstrating the effect to scientists and engineers, to persuade a large number of people that the effect is real. That would be much far cheaper and faster than commercialization.
There are other things ongoing regarding the demonstration of the effect. They've not been made public yet but they should be in a matter of weeks.
It's probably time we interview Robert Godes, I'll ask him. I would like to remind JedRothwell that Brilluoin organized a live demonstration of their device at ICCF-24, although it was a far from perfect demo, as they had not tested the device beforehand for some reason. Carl Page has been close to this project since before ICCF-19, it's surprising that such a well-connected guy hasn't found them a commercial partner so far.
