LENR vs Solar/Wind, and emerging Green Technologies.

  • There is little or no solar energy in North Dakota, but there is tremendous potential wind energy. There is no potential wind energy in Georgia, but lots of solar.


    See the NREL wind map of the U.S. Wind resources are concentrated in the center of the continent:


    https://www.nrel.gov/gis/image…wind/USwind300dpe4-11.jpg


    It makes no sense to erect on-shore wind turbines in places like Georgia or Florida. That would be like building a hydroelectric dam in the desert where there is no river and no water. Whereas the wind in the purple areas of this map stretching from Texas to Canada could easily generate all of the energy in the world. That would not be cost effective with today's technology, but it could eventually be made cost effective with enough investment. It could never be as cheap as cold fusion, but it is already cheaper than coal or fission. But it is only cheaper in the purple areas!


    Decades ago, and even 10 years ago, people were saying that wind or solar could never compete with coal and other conventional energy, so there was no point to subsidizing it. Such statements are shockingly ignorant of history. Since 1750, nearly all major large-scale technology started out more expensive than existing systems, and gradually became competitive, usually after years or even decades of government subsidies, and government sponsored R&D. For examples, see the history of canals, steam engines, steamships, railroads, paved roads, electricity, airplanes, computers, semiconductors, integrated circuits, and the internet. Only a few innovations paid for themselves from the start, such as oil from wells rather than whales. Automobiles did not pay for themselves. They have received the largest government subsidies of any technology, in the form of roads and highways. No technology and no industry is more beholden to the government than automobiles, so it is ironic that many people in love with cars consider themselves rugged individualists who owe nothing to the government.


    In the 1820s, when ocean-going steamships were first developed, the British government gave them lavish subsidies, officially to carry mail, but actually to develop the technology. As I recall, the U.S. government also subsidized them. This caused howls of dismay from the sailing ship companies and from conventional economists. Their arguments were very similar to those in the 1990s opposed to subsidizing wind power. "Steamship are inefficient. They will never compete with sails. It is unfair to the industry. Steamships are unreliable and dangerous. Steamship companies are sponging off the taxpayers. Sailors should stick to the sea, mind their ropes, and not play politics." All of these arguments were technically correct. Steamships were far more expensive than sailing ships. They were not fully competitive in most markets until the 1860s, and it wasn't until WWI that sailing ships were finally put out of business by steam. Without the subsidies it would have taken longer, and England and the U.S. might not have led the world in steamship construction. The lesson is clear: governments have to play an important role in big-ticket technology. It has to be planned for, subsidized and brought to fruition with tax money. That upsets the economic purists, but that's how things work.

  • I have a more sarcastic opinion born out by life's lessons. When someone preaches to me (happens often), that *WE* have to do something to save the planet, I always ask them "Agreed, so what are you doing?". For the most part, no one really is doing anything. All talk. no action: "do as I say, not as I do", Yes, they are adamant about caring, and demand wind/solar/carbon tax, or whatever...as long as they do not have to do anything, or pay more for it. In reality, they demand YOU to do all that to STP, and leave them alone.


    One of the more funny answers I got was from my neighbor, a lawyer with 3 homes he travels between weekly, 4 cars (all gas guzzlers) for he and his wife. "Agreed, so what are you doing Hank"? His answer: "I have a friend that drives a Prius". :) Seriously, that is what he said, and with a straight face. Hypocrisy runs rampant among those who boisterously profess allegiance to the environment.

    All that is mostly true, but let’s give some credit to the ~2 million Americans with solar panels on their roofs and the hundreds of thousands driving electric cars. Being in both categories, I don’t consider myself to be doing nothing. And, for what it’s worth, I always explain that we are not trying to save the planet. The planet will be just fine if we screw things up. We just won’t be here to see the results.

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    All that is mostly true, but let’s give some credit to the ~2 million Americans with solar panels on their roofs and the hundreds of thousands driving electric cars. Being in both categories, I don’t consider myself to be doing nothing. And, for what it’s worth, I always explain that we are not trying to save the planet. The planet will be just fine if we screw things up. We just won’t be here to see the results.


    Good point I forgot to mention. No doubt all our members are STP types, who not only "talk the talk, but walk the walk". Of course that includes you, with your extensive work in the renewable industry.

  • but let’s give some credit to the ~2 million Americans with solar panels on their roofs and the hundreds of thousands driving electric cars

    There're two NZers whose solar panels I waterblast when I visit them

    One drives a Mod 3 Tesla..the other a 2017 Leaf... both with superb electronics.

    They have both taken advantage of considerable incentives.

    But in Sydney I am on a gas/coal-fired power grid, and there is little subsidy/incentive to encourage me to emulate them.

    I shall keep my new ICE car.. Subaru.. which has good electronics also.. and my gas fired water heater which has operated for 20 yrs.


    There is plenty of solar fusion energy in the present drought..

    If someone subsidised me to the tune of $10,000 I might use it. with a Tesla battery. and for another $20,000 I could throw in a Leaf.

    Otherwise I look forward to cheaper fusion energy...from LENR

  • I'm tremendously looking forward to solar and wind power becoming obsolete. In my neighborhood even a small thunderstorm can knock out the power for hours or longer. I'd love to have a small, portable LENR generator to power my home so I could be completely disconnected from the grid. You may say that solar power would be an option for me. However, I can't afford a solar installation and my roof would not withstand the weight. A small LENR reactor the size of a window air conditioning unit would be ideal.

  • Well, in principle that may be true. But at the moment in the US, oil industry executives inform policy, at least at the federal level.


    Yes, the US has a way to go. But EU and even China are in a better position. China with a command economy and considerable central government control without democratic checks and balances can of course move faster than others.

  • I'm tremendously looking forward to solar and wind power becoming obsolete. In my neighborhood even a small thunderstorm can knock out the power for hours or longer. I'd love to have a small, portable LENR generator to power my home so I could be completely disconnected from the grid. You may say that solar power would be an option for me. However, I can't afford a solar installation and my roof would not withstand the weight. A small LENR reactor the size of a window air conditioning unit would be ideal.


    @Director: in your case you need a Tesla powerwall. Expensive, but less so than developing to practical usability an LENR reactor - even if you know how to do that!

  • Hello THH,


    I don't think developing the technology The SAFIRE Project, Brilliant Light Power, and Leonardo Corporation is working on will be extremely expensive. The essence of the technology is to allow the plasma to do the work for you. I think developing LENR devices that utilize hydrogen loaded powder, wire, or mesh will be moderately more expensive due to the material science issues.

  • Well, expensive is a relative word and there's not the phrase "not expensive" in my post. I'm convinced that more so than money, what's really lacking in the LENR field are gun-ho individuals with both the skills required and time to attempt replications (or build analogs) of systems like the E-Cat QX/SK and perform long series of experiments. Money, obviously, can solve this labor issue to a certain extent; however, I think such individuals are hard to come by. There aren't a ton of people well versed in the various LENR theories/concepts anyway - much less those who know anything about the long history of devices that likely utilized the EVO phenomena. So even if a group had adequate funding, the labor to perform such testing may simply be unavailable.


    Personally, I still believe that a small group of people with the correct skill sets - at least one being a first class electronics guru - could come together and build a small device utilizing the negative resistance regime to produce excess energy with a modest amount of funding (especially if they already had some of the equipment and lab space). The SAFIRE Project built and tested their monster of a system with a budge of one and a half million dollars. I'm guessing a system that was much, much smaller could cost a hundredth of that. Once the group figured out ideal combinations of gases, the best electrode materials, and the most efficient way to tune it into resonance, I'm guessing that a small prototype of a device that could generate high temperature steam could be produced for under a million dollars. Again, I'm talking about a device that would produce a small volume of steam: just enough to prove the concept. Then the device could be presented to a nation that was in desperate need of clean energy. If such a country would fast track the technology to reduce the red tape involved, I believe the technology could be completely developed into larger prototypes for several million dollars.

  • In the 1820s, when ocean-going steamships were first developed, the British government gave them lavish subsidies, officially to carry mail, but actually to develop the technology.


    Here is one source for this, A. Laing, "Clipper Ship Men," 1944, p. 268, describing the situation in 1850:


    Steamers were improving, but they could not stand up with the clippers in honest competition. The only steamship line which tried to get along on its own earnings failed disastrously. The others were paid big government subsidies, such as the clippers never got. The editor of Harper's Magazine, writing in 1851, predicted "-- if our steam men do not look to their oars -- a return to the old and wholesome service of wind and sail. . . . It is taking nature in the fullness of her bounty, and not cramping her gifts into boiling water-pots."


    Here is the Harper's Magazine page, which is interesting. This was written after one of the fastest sailing ship transits in history, made by the Flying Cloud:


    https://books.google.com/books…PA850#v=onepage&q&f=false


    In this column, "Collins' monsters" refers to the U.S. Collins line steamships, which were subsidized by the U.S. government for mail carrying, at $385,000 a year. They lost money despite this, because of technical problems.



    The point I am trying to make is that in 1850, steamships were improving rapidly. The Great Western was launched in 1838. People should have seen that eventually, steamships would eclipse sailing ships, at least in some markets. In the 1990s, the cost of wind and solar energy was falling rapidly. There was no reason to think it would stop falling. The devices were not facing any physical limits of performance, and there was no pending shortage of good locations for wind or solar. Subsidies were still needed, but they were being reduced. It was not difficult to project that in the near future, they would become competitive in many markets.


    You cannot predict success for an unproven, expensive, difficult technology such as oil shale or plasma fusion reactors. You go out too far on a limb. But, when hundreds of wind and solar locations are already producing a significant fraction of total energy without many technical problems, and when the price is falling rapidly, it is easy to predict that these technologies will soon become more competitive. A few years ago Paul Krugman wrote that he did not see the emergence of cost-competitive wind and solar power. He did not anticipate it. He may be a good economist, but evidently he does not know much about technology, or even commerce. I could have told you back in 1990 that if present trends continued, and subsidies were maintained, wind would soon be competitive in the middle of the North American continent.


    Large subsidies for unproven technology such as oil share and plasma fusion are a bad idea in my opinion. But gigantic government subsidies for the Transcontinental Railroad, for automobiles, aviation and semiconductors (in the space race) worked out well, because the subsidies began after the technology was shown to be viable. I think a subsidy is fair to the taxpayers when it is mainly paid for by the taxpayers who make use of the technology. For example, gasoline taxes pay for highways. If you don't drive much, you don't contribute much. Subsidies for wind and solar should be paid for with a tax on electricity, or a carbon tax, in my opinion.

  • Personally, I still believe that a small group of people with the correct skill sets - at least one being a first class electronics guru - could come together and build a small device …


    There are many small groups of people trying to prototype energy devices. More likely than not, most will run out of funding. Truthfully, very little will happen without a prototype and only a very successful prototype will compete for the attention of any funding source that could make any change to current energy markets. So be optimistic. Do something if you can. Don't believe that its impossible rather look for what is real.


    Fusion below the Lawson criteria is real, because one can't fake precise and accurate stoichiometry. I may run out of funding but I believe somebody will see what is real and keep trying.

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    IMHO lack of funding is not the only problem to resolve the prototype issue. This will hurt, but Mills has been able to keep funding his stuff for decades, and not with pennies, and has not convinced anyone outside his group of cheerleaders and investors. This has been justified with many excuses mainly that his prototypes are almost entirely secret and also that they have been validated (also under NDA) by independent parties. That will never convince anyone outside their tightly held circle of insiders.


    Other example of ability of funding has been that one of Santilli. He has been able to fund his development for years, he has not been secretive and has published a lot of data and independent validations, but has failed to patent and also has failed to garner more interest in his technology. He seems to be doing well enough in financial issues, but his absolute clash with academia and his quirk personality have not worked in his favor. He has plenty of prototypes and has published all data, but he has failed to gather more interest. His company seems to be doing fine selling the exotic syngas they make as welding gas, tho.

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    I had never heard of this particular company until today, but certainly it will be used as example by skeptics to warn investors against investing in everything related for years to come, even worst than Theranos.


    Certainly this is very bad news.

  • Warnings to investors can be very self serving. Warren Buffet warned investors away from nuclear power. But he owns a lot of power companies and he will profit by energy becoming more scarce. Can't anyone see through this kind of manipulation of the economy?

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    Warnings to investors can be very self serving. Warren Buffet warned investors away from nuclear power. But he owns a lot of power companies and he will profit by energy becoming more scarce. Can't anyone see through this kind of manipulation of the economy?


    Yes, but I do not see how it applies to Joi Scientific? They admitted their technology does not work as they thought, due an error they discovered in the input power mismeasurement. And as Curbina said; this will make it all that much harder for LENR related upstarts to attain funding.

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