LENR vs Solar/Wind, and emerging Green Technologies.

  • You may be right Jed. It would be a nice problem to have to decide the best way to use LENR. My point was I don't think cars would be good battery resources for the grid either but the other way "might" be more feasible.

    I agree that electric cars are not likely to be a battery resource for the grid. Reversing the charge to go from the car to the house is problematic. It is dangerous. It calls for a complicated automatic relay switch. The kind you use with a natural gas fired standby generator. This increases the cost of the generator by about $1500 compared to ordinary generators. See, for example:


    https://www.lowes.com/pd/Generac-Guardian-24kW-Home-Standby-Generator-with-Whole-House-Transfer-Switch-Wi-Fi-Enabled/5001905451


    As I said, chargers with remote turn on/turn off capabilities may be a good way for the power company to save money, but they are not like using a charged electric car to power the grid. They are a lot simpler and cheaper.


    I think using an electric car to power the grid is a bad idea for another reason. You want an electric car to be fully charged, or as close to full as you can make it. You don't want to discharge it halfway to keep the grid running. Electric car range is a problem. I know this because I had an electric car for a while, which I gave to my daughter.


    People will likely find creative ways to use all that excess power. It will likely take decades to displace centralized power production.

    I think it will take 15 years from the start of intense manufacturing of cold fusion generators to displace centralized power production. The physical transition may not be complete after 15 years, but the power companies will all be going bankrupt. They cannot afford to service half as many customers as they now have, or one-tenth as many. They cannot maintain the grid, and they cannot reduce the size of the grid, or reduce grid maintenance costs. If they have 100 customers on a certain power line, and 50 customers buy cold fusion generators and terminate their electric company service, the power company still has to maintain the entire power line, with half the revenue. They cannot operate on that basis. Their profit margins are too small. They will go bankrupt, which will force their remaining customers to hustle out and buy cold fusion generators. I explained how this transition works here on pages 2 and 3:


    https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJthefuturem.pdf


    The 15 year limit is not arbitrary. It is a function of the service life of equipment, and the time it takes people to replace their furnaces and air conditioners. No one is going to dump a new furnace just to get the benefits of a cold fusion co-generator, but when the furnace wears out, no one is going to buy another gas or electrically fired furnace. People do not throw away tens of thousands of dollars for no reason.


    Along similar lines, oil companies are set up to supply huge amounts of fuel, with pipelines and gigantic oil tankers. If they lose half of their market, they cannot afford to operate a gigantic oil tanker. It would sit around unused for weeks or months, gradually degrading. It would resemble the hundreds of sidelined railroad locomotives shown in this photo, which were used to haul coal before the market for coal fell by half:



    In a few years, these locomotives will be scrap metal. They are not being maintained, and there is no use for them.


    Some transitions are even more drastic and rapid, because the equipment does not last for 15 years, and the newer version is so much more cost effective. From 1982 to 1990, all minicomputer makes went out of business, and nearly all mainframe makers did. IBM came close to bankruptcy.

  • but after checking current rates are 12.09 cents/kWh and commercial are 9.28 cents/kWh so again we find another reverse correlation between cheap wind power production and retail prices.

    This table is not adjusted for inflation. 9.28 cents in 1999 was worth 13.72 cents in 2017, according the BLS. So, electricity was marginally cheaper.



    Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value from 1913-2022
    Easily calculate how the buying power of the US dollar has changed from 1913 to 2022. Get inflation rates and US inflation news.
    www.usinflationcalculator.com

  • This a very low customer rates as in Italy e.g. you pay > 30 cents!

    Electricity costs 17 cents/kWh in Italy before taxes, not much more expensive than the U.S.:


    Italy: Tax excluded electricity prices for households 2017-2021 | Statista
    The natural gas prices for household end users (excluding taxes, levies, and VAT) in Italy increased by 3.3 euro cents per kWh (+23.04%) in the previous six…
    www.statista.com


    There are no taxes on U.S. electricity as far as I know. The government does make the nuclear plant operators put aside money for decommissioning, which is sort of like a tax, I guess.

  • The 15 year limit is not arbitrary. It is a function of the service life of equipment, and the time it takes people to replace their furnaces and air conditioners. No one is going to dump a new furnace just to get the benefits of a cold fusion co-generator, but when the furnace wears out, no one is going to buy another gas or electrically fired furnace. People do not throw away tens of thousands of dollars for no reason.

    This is a good solid argument, generally if someone has just bought a car or a new house boiler, or a power station a new generator, then they will continue to use it till they need to think about replacing it.


    Except there are special cases where people do throw away money. People throw away their phone and buy a new one, sometimes every year. That is not especially applicable to the sort of technology we are talking about but it does demonstrate an exception to the argument.


    Where it may be applicable to cold fusion is because there are the replacement costs and then the running costs.

    If the cost savings for running the new cold fusion device are so great then there may be a case for dumping the old tech sooner.

    With boilers for instance, it may be that all new houses get the new cold fusion boiler, and anybody with an oldish standard boiler will want a new cold fusion boiler.

    But even for those that have a relatively recent standard boiler it is possible that if the cost savings are so great with cold fusion that the mere running costs of their standard boiler may make it undesireable to hang onto. People who are renting may prefer apartments with cold fusion boilers which are so much cheaper than the standard boilers.

    So if cold fusion energy is really ultra cheap then it might disrupt the various markets more quickly than even we anticipate.

  • Except there are special cases where people do throw away money. People throw away their phone and buy a new one, sometimes every year. That is not especially applicable to the sort of technology we are talking about but it does demonstrate an exception to the argument.

    Cell phones are much cheaper than a heater or air conditioner, so people can afford to swap them out often. For many people they are more like fashion statements than a utilitarian durable good such as a heater. So I do not think the comparison is close.


    I suppose the first generation of cold fusion heaters will cost huge amounts of money, and they will not last long. They will be fashion statements by millionaires, like the first Tesla automobiles.

  • Before we make those flying houses, how about using the technology for flying cars. The corridors already exist for automated systems over the interstate highways.

    I have read that the FAA has quashed flying car proposals because they do not have air traffic control technology to monitor large numbers of aircraft. I don't know much about it, but low flying aircraft over highways would be extremely dangerous. Pilots have told me that a malfunction at low altitude is much more difficult to recover from or go to a crash landing. I live near an airport which has had around 30 fatal accidents since we moved here. Some of them a few blocks from my house. They were all at low altitude, taking off or landing. Pilots tell me fatal accidents midway through a trip are less common. (Pilots told me a lot because my office was at the airport.)


    DeKalb-Peachtree Airport’s history of crashes - Reporter Newspapers & Atlanta Intown
    The wreck of a private plane into DeKalb County townhomes in October has brought renewed attention to the possibility of accidents around DeKalb-Peachtree…
    reporternewspapers.net


    The fatality rate for general aviation per passenger mile is far higher than for automobiles. If the number of airplanes approached the number of cars, fatal accidents might kill hundreds of thousands of people. I think flying cars will have to wait until fully automated AI flight controls and air traffic control are perfected. That is what I predict in my book.

  • We're not talking airplanes here. Helicopters come down like rocks, but when you have six fans the AI can bring the craft down safely when one fails. I also don't buy the control of the lanes argument. I think it's less complicated than automating traffic on the highways. It's going to happen anyway. I read that an Arab nation was developing automated taxi's of that type. I was responding to the picture of the hovering house anyway.🤠

  • Maybe the future if temperaturs goes up and oil, I do not know, it will not be efficient for traveling from random a to random b, but maybe high speed underground trains makes that argument moot. I wonder if there are some optimality you reach by making all housing stack in a line like this. One thing I can think of are that the outer wall's can have solar panels with no shading from other buildings so in that sense this is efficient. And if people just stay put in their section, there will be now drawback from this setup compared to the normal way of arranging a city. It's different for sure.

  • The issue is being able to scale up those 6 fan drones to carry safely at least two adults and groceries. I think our technology is good enough. Might be more efficient than cars for moving people around. That is; use less oil. Remains to be seen.😎

  • Seems to me it will all have trap doors like the battery systems and ink printers.

    built to keep the money moving and the power in the grips of the greedy designers.

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