We should be able to see a hydrogen emission line or two in there.
Rossi E-Cat SK Demo Discussion
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And he is making up more stuff about his 2015 USPTO (Fluid Heater) patent, claiming it applies to his SK...as it shares the same core tech as the early Ecats. Neither of which is correct; the patent did not cover the Ecat back then, so it does not cover the SK now.
I would like to say he is reaching new lows in peddling false information, but unfortunately he has been pretty blatant like this all along.
As a long-term Rossi watcher his breathtaking bragadoccio always amazes me.
My best understanding if it is that he lives in a land far from reality where little details like using the correct measuring equipment to get real results, having the correct certification to be legal, dumping pollutants only when you have permission to do so, actually having stuff that works for his customers, just do not register. He does what he wants and assumes other people will end up agreeing with him as long as he ignores critics.
What amazes me is how successful this strategy has been for him.
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It strikes me that Mr Rossi's activities have been particularly careless and brash for the SK roll out. He no longer surrounds himself with technical experts during his events, he relies on old certifications that, on their face, are of no relevance, he makes blackbody calculations based on a 357 nm peak in the spectrum that he hasn't even bothered to fake up.
I get the feeling that Rossi's efforts are sloppier and less energetic than in the past. It almost seems as though he is going through the motions. Does it seem this way to others too? I wonder if it has to do with his illnesses, which must be exacting a toll on his energies.
I wonder too about what a con man does when faced with evidence of his mortality. Does a brush with a possibly deadly disease make past motivations for driving the con forward seem shallow? Or does one go ahead with the con simply as part of regaining one's "normal" life?
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Bruce__H intersting analysis especially the use of the of Poisson distribution Thanks for that.
I will have to get my mind around the statistics to visualize properly what you are getting at it but i can see you raise a good point and it’s interesting.
If what you say is correct it would be interesting to see an accumulated plot for many more than just 17 frames. I suppose the over all profile won’t change much. But any remaining artifacts would likely be removed. It might then be easier to interpret the data.
Edit: now I’m curious what the part beyond 425 nm shows. This would be the part beyond the apparent sharp cut off. If that part is attenuated those small bumps may actually correspond to quite large peaks.
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As a long-term Rossi watcher his breathtaking bragadoccio always amazes me.
My best understanding if it is that he lives in a land far from reality where little details like using the correct measuring equipment to get real results, having the correct certification to be legal, dumping pollutants only when you have permission to do so, actually having stuff that works for his customers, just do not register. He does what he wants and assumes other people will end up agreeing with him as long as he ignores critics.
What amazes me is how successful this strategy has been for him.
At the age of 71, I am no longer amazed by how gullible they can be who want to believe. Even in this age of vast swathes of information available at the click of a mouse, confidence tricksters of all stripes , from psychics to priests, still flourish. It seems to matter not one jot to the faithful that the things they promise never materialise. I am both baffled, and thankful that I have some sense of self-preservation - even though (I admit) I was briefly a Rossi-believer.
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I get the feeling that Rossi's efforts are sloppier and less energetic than in the past. It almost seems as though he is going through the motions.
As I said, I think this is the internet Nigerian scammer technique described by Microsoft. I think Rossi has adapted his techniques to fit the 21st century internet environment, which gives the scammer a much larger audience. He is making his presentations less convincing in order to exclude false positives.
I do not mean that he read the Microsoft paper and he decided to do this. The scammers in the U.S. who pretend they are from Nigeria did not read the paper. They saw others doing this. They tried it themselves, and they made more money with less effort. They may not even be aware of how it works or what a "false positive" is. They probably do realize that they are wasting less time with potential victims who escape after a while, without ever paying up.
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I do not mean that he read the Microsoft paper and he decided to do this. The scammers in the U.S. who pretend they are from Nigeria did not read the paper.
Wolves and other predators employ mathematically complex techniques similar to this. They have not read the Microsoft paper either, because they do not have access to the internet. They do have predatory standards committees, best practices handbooks, post-graduate training seminars, interminable meetings and so on. As Mr. Trump says, people don't realize this, because we are not invited to the International Wolf Central Committee Conferences (IWCCC).
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Rossi sleeps about 7-8 hours per night. You can see this on his blog
In response to Gerard McEk's question, Rossi attempts to leave open the possibility that he is sleeping 3 hours or less per night. He implies that this is because of the pressure of work. His numerous blog postings, however, tell a different story. Since Feb 8, when he first shifted to the European time zone pattern, his posting activity is quiescent for about 7 hours every night ... just as always.
So Mr McEk and sam12, no need to worry about Rossi! Despite his preference for working in the US and the intense pressure he says he is under -- filling orders for heat, overseeing his team, and making sure his factories are working to capacity -- he is in Europe right now and sleeping just fine!
Gerald asked A.R. If he has been sleeping 3 hours less than his normal
7 or 8 hours.Good to hear A.R. Is
traveling the globe.Maybe he will
run in to Dewey at an airport somewhere.He does some traveling.
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It strikes me that Mr Rossi's activities have been particularly careless and brash for the SK roll out. He no longer surrounds himself with technical experts during his events, he relies on old certifications that, on their face, are of no relevance, he makes blackbody calculations based on a 357 nm peak in the spectrum that he hasn't even bothered to fake up.
***These are inductive indicators. It may help determine once and for all whether Rossi is a con man or had LENR in a box. We simply need more inductive indicators.
I get the feeling that Rossi's efforts are sloppier and less energetic than in the past.
***Unfortunately, feelings are crappy inductive indicators.
It almost seems as though he is going through the motions. Does it seem this way to others too? I wonder if it has to do with his illnesses, which must be exacting a toll on his energies.
***If he knows he's ill, then it points to the end game. Why would an accomplished con man leave $89M on the table? He supposedly outsmarted a lot of smart people, so why would he lower himself by going after dumb people with the Nigerian Gambit?
If it turns out that he was indisputably a con man, I really would like to know how he conned Focardi's sidekicks, and the Swedes. Then we would need to aggressively work backwards on this correction factor and apply it to ALL of LENR anomalous heating events.
If there's an error producing artifact like the crackpot Shanahan or Thomas Clarke suggest, then we need to back-substitute that variable into the LENR equation to see if there really is an anomaly worth pursuing.
On either side of this anomaly are stretched narratives of experts in Industrial Heat missing a heat exchanger and not bringing a fracking THERMOMETER to demos for over a year, of LENR experts getting duped into thinking they see LENR, of Swedish Skeptics doing a black box test and can't measure input Power nor Output Heat.
And from the perspective of MisanthRossic skeptics, how can they help the dupes to see an OBVIOUS con artist and force people to look at the technical impossibilities like magic heat exchangers and blatant lies, so blatant that the man should be in jail right now, supposedly.
Either way, the tree should be shaken of its fruit.
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I will have to get my mind around the statistics to visualize properly what you are getting at it but i can see you raise a good point and it’s interesting.
Poisson statistics are appropriate for any process where events happen at a particular average rate but at random intervals. Radioactive decay is the perfect example, but so are raindrops landing on a patch of ground or goals in a soccer game. In this case of the SK spectrum, the number of photons arriving at the spectrometer sensor in a given time and within a particular energy range should follow a Poisson distribution.
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Bruce__H yup I agree it’s an interesting application in this case. I’m curious if we should apply this more generally. with out this in effect we are looking at data with out properly considering the error bars.
But it’s interesting once we have it to compare with data and see what is statistically significant too. Maybe it can throw up some interesting information.
It’s good you brought this up.
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At each wavelength I have placed 95% confidence intervals on the SK spectrum. Here they are ...
I have indicated spectral features that appear to be statistically different from their surroundings. Red marks indicate peaks and, since I can't really differentiate emission features from absorption features, green marks indicate significant troughs
The data are for summed counts over 17 separate spectral acquisition cycles shown in the Rossi presentation. Wavelengths shorter than 350 are not shown ( this region definitely contains large emission peaks)
I think we see 2 things from this. First, the spectrum from 350-420 contains discrete spectral features. Second that throughout this region there also appears to be a continuous, thermal, component. I would be glad to hear anyone's opinion on a mechanism for the the continuous component to just abruptly disappear above about 423 nm.
According to Rossi, there are supposed to be 2 important features of this spectrum ... a blackbody peak at 357nm and a discrete spectral peak at 437.2 nm.
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According there are supposed to be 2 important features of this spectrum ... a blackbody peak at 357nm and a discrete spectral peak at 437.2 nm.
Bruce, can you explain this sentence better? According? To what? I assume a black body at some temperature, but did anyone say it should be one? And the peaks aren't there, so I guess that is what you are getting at?
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Bruce, can you explain this sentence better? According? To what? I assume a black body at some temperature, but did anyone say it should be one? And the peaks aren't there, so I guess that is what you are getting at?
Sorry. The peaks are supposed to be there according to Rossi. I've now made that clear in my original post. Thanks for pointing out my omission.
In the Jan31 presentation Rossi founds his whole calculation of the thermal output of the SK (and hence its COP) on a supposed peak at 357 nm. If the spectrum is indeed blackbody and if its peak is indeed at 357 nm, then the temperature of the plasma should be 8111 degrees C and the rate of heat production for the SK should be about 22 kW. This is exactly what is needed to heat the room the SK is supposed to be sitting.
I don't see much of anything at 357 nm. Here are the data shwon against what a blackbody spectrum with a peak at 357 nm should look like.
The peak at 437.2 nm is one Rossi predicted on theoretical grounds as an indicator that a particular LENR
mechanism is at work. I don't really see that one either
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Sorry. The peaks are supposed to be there according to Rossi. I've now made that clear in my original post. Thanks for pointing out my omission.
In the Jan31 presentation Rossi founds his whole calculation of the thermal output of the SK (and hence its COP) on a supposed peak at 357 nm. If the spectrum is indeed blackbody and if its peak is indeed at 357 nm, then the temperature of the plasma should be 8111 degrees C and the rate of heat production for the SK should be about 22 kW. This is exactly what is needed to heat the room the SK is supposed to be sitting.
I don't see much of anything at 357 nm. Here are the data shwon against what a blackbody spectrum with a peak at 357 nm should look like.
The peak at 437.2 nm is one Rossi predicted on theoretical grounds as an indicator that a particular LENR
mechanism is at work. I don't really see that one either
It's a bit dangerous to match the height of Rossis spectra with the black body spectra. For non black body spectra one need to know the result of
a calibrating source of known energy output of similar wavelengths as in Rossis spectra. When the spectra is non black body without knowing the
y scale means that the output can be anything. Or am I missing something? Anyway if you want to know how to measure energy output from spectra
I would refer to Mills validation work for the suncell. The approach seam to be reasonable in those experiments and if not please comment.
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It's a bit dangerous to match the height of Rossis spectra with the black body spectra. For non black body spectra one need to know the result of
a calibrating source of known energy output of similar wavelengths as in Rossis spectra. When the spectra is non black body without knowing the
y scale means that the output can be anything. Or am I missing something? Anyway if you want to know how to measure energy output from spectra
I would refer to Mills validation work for the suncell. The approach seam to be reasonable in those experiments and if not please comment.
I can't see any value in this case in working out the output power.
Rossi has shown that he does not measure the input power: so it means little.
All that can be done is to show that Rossi's technical comments about measuring the output power are wrong: but we knew before this that Rossi's technical comments about measuring output power (or indeed anything else relevant to his claims) are rubbish. So that contributes little.
Not that I don't enjoy Bruce-H's attempts to decode this.
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It's a bit dangerous to match the height of Rossis spectra with the black body spectra.
Absolutely correct. My intention was to show how different a blackbody spectrum is from the spectrum Rossi has (where are all the longer and shorter wavelengths?). And yet he goes and hangs his entire COP calculation on an argument that it is a blackbody spectrum we are seeing.
If you have a true blackbody spectrum then you don't have to use a calibration standard, I think that is why Rossi tried to go down this road
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Very interesting analysis Bruce__H. Thanks for that. I’m pretty curious what the spectrum does show.
Regarding the BB spectrum I think it’s clear that it’s hard for us to see the BB signature there. more interesting is understanding what we do see I think.
I think there is the possibility that there is a strong cut off at long wavelengths but not a perfect one (as we would expect from a sampling cut off) as evidenced by the short tail after 420 nm. This is why I suspected Airy disc dispersion from a narrow aperture. I do wonder how much the spectrum is affected by how it is being measured. If there is a strong attenuation
Beyond 420 nm those peaks there (what ever frequency they are) could in fact be quite large
On the other hand this part of the spectrum is linked I think to the ionic emission part of the spectrum so maybe there are some known features in that profile. It would take a plasma specrum expert to help here I guess.
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spectrum- how was the spectrum calibrated? As with all of Rossi's "demos" there seems a lack of control or calibration. Could the device be "off calibration" so that 420nm was really 530nm or something like that?
for example the use of an incorrect diffraction grating?
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Nowaday you have a very rich company from your side, a company called Industrial Heat with millions of dollars available to feed CF researches.
***The guys who let a whole year slip by without asking where the heat exchanger was? The guys who paid $10M for a validation and then turned around and paid some other expert to knock down that validation so they wouldn't have to move forward and pay $89M more in the next phase? The guys who asked for intellectual property in their countersuit that everyone says is worthless? Those guys? The folks who are kindest to them on this forum are saying they were stupid.
