Whereas capitalism has produced a housing crisis in termas of affordability and homelessness in most free-market economies.
FP's 30 years later: how much has LENR progressed?
-
-
Quote
The first airplanes were not only as useless as this; they were worse than useless, since they killed many of the people who tried to fly them
Yeah but it's a terrible example because they flew. Everyone who was there at a demo could see them fly. It was a very short time before most people and especially engineers and main line scientists believed they existed and worked, however badly and dangerously. No such luck with LENR.
-
Quote
You will find Russel Targ's recently-released documentary ("Third Eye Spies") to be quite interesting, I expect. They obtained CIA clearance to release previously-classified material and interviews with key CIA personnel who managed the research they were doing with SRI and the CIA in the 70's and 80's. The capabilities of remote viewing first explored by their research evolved into routine operational assets for various US government agencies, and may still be in use presently. Puthof, Geller and various luminaries such as Brian Josephson all make notable appearances. I highly recommend watching this film
Robert Ellefson: Sorry but that was complete, total, unquestionable horse pucky. Nobody can "remote view" unless you call vague guesses about common geophysical features and shapes to be "viewing." Geller is a common crook who deludes people into thinking that simple sleight of hand is psychic. See for example the classic program with Johnnie Carson and all of Randi's spoon bending demos. If you want to discuss this more, perhaps you can choose another thread or a new one. It does seem OT for this one. If DOD is still hanging on to this old sh*t, they are even more gullible than I thought when they bought Rossi's crock of crap with his thermoelectric converter scam.
-
Display More
I see no evidence that new energy will be a simple as a bicycle. On the contrary, it will probably be as complicated as an integrated semiconductor chip, a nicad battery, or a PV solar cell.
In any case, although bicycles are relatively simple, manufacturing them is complicated. Modern bicycle manufacturing is high tech, with complicated, composite materials and tight tolerances. Small, poor countries cannot make bicycles, so they import them from China. North Korea used to import thousands of used bicycles from Japan. A few North Korean engineers can make nuclear weapons, but the nation as a whole cannot even make bicycles.
I hope that cold fusion devices will eventually be rugged and easy to use, so that people in small, forgotten countries can use them, the way they use PV solar cells today. But I do not think they will ever be easy to mass produce.
This is somewhat off topic but Chinese companies have been making far too many bicycles lately. Tens of thousands have been abandoned. This is why capitalism works better than communism. The same dysfunctionality in their economy has produced hundreds of thousands of empty condominiums, offices and shopping malls. See:
Thank. Yes, I was in China and I know communism in my own skin in the USSR! But if the Communists chose the basis of finding new energy, they could do it first! But they have their own scientists who are not going the right way. One planet is one people - we all need to set a goal to find new energy, oil is the blood of the planet and we will all die!
-
Yeah but it's a terrible example because they flew. Everyone who was there at a demo could see them fly.
Not really. Starting in the 1890s there were many claims of flight, and several machines got off the ground, such as Maxim's. But none of them flew in a carefully defined engineering sense. They were not under control. Whether they flew or not was controversial then, and even now it remains somewhat controversial. To read a careful engineering description of flight, see the lectures and papers of Wilbur Wright.
It was a very short time before most people and especially engineers and main line scientists believed they existed and worked, however badly and dangerously. No such luck with LENR.
That is incorrect. Very few people believed it before 1908, even though dozens of leading citizens of Dayton, OH, saw the flights and signed affidavits. Also, many people did not understand the difference between airplanes and powered dirigibles, which had been used for some time.
As late as 1912, after the Wrights become famous worldwide and Congress gave them a medal, many people refused to believe that airplanes were real. They thought the reports were "fake news" (in modern parlance). An aviator showed up in a small city with an airplane packed into a freight car and began advertising that he would do demonstration flights. The townspeople heard about it and threatened to beat him up for fraud, because "everyone knows people can't fly." The sheriff had to help him leave town in the middle of the night.
-
Whereas capitalism has produced a housing crisis in termas of affordability and homelessness in most free-market economies.
It is nowhere near as bad as the real-estate crisis in China. Capitalism has its faults, and I do not think it will survive after robots make human labor worthless, but it is less wasteful than communism or the Chinese hybrid system.
-
Jed is right again - China is on the verge of an off the books private debt implosion. That would be a very bad thing for most Chinese AND the rest of the 1st world.
I hope that Alan will eventually be able to understand that capitalism generates the fuel behind most of the meaningful LENR research at present.
In our sector's case and with only a handful of exceptions, governments have abrogated the traditional science funding model and, as a result, we have to create value / generate profits that can be put back to work supporting LENR research.
-
I hope that Alan will eventually be able to understand that capitalism generates the fuel behind most of the meaningful LENR research at present.
I have nothing against Capitalism, it's a game I am ok at playing. I like your 'meaningful' term btw, how would you define 'meaningless' research?
-
In our sector's case and with only a handful of exceptions, governments have abrogated the traditional science funding model and, as a result, we have to create value / generate profits that can be put back to work supporting LENR research.
I am surprised there have not been more like Sidney Kimmel (SKINR), who are willing to throw a few million into the research with no strings attached. Gates funding Duncan at Texas Tech may qualify, but we do not know if that is fully altruistic, or a blend of that and business, like the IH model. Speaking of Gates/Duncan; any word over the weekend about when we might hear something?
-
Speaking of Gates/Duncan; any word over the weekend about when we might hear something?
In San Francisco waiting for plane to Humboldt; late due to fog of course.....
I sat next to Robert Duncan at the Colloquium and asked him about the research. Unfortunately he said he couldn't say anything at this time, but he hopes he can at some point soon. I did not ask why, but let it go. I asked him if he would do a short interview on video for the doc, and he was hesitant, but I told him the questions - all about general sociological stuff - and he agreed. (So now I've got statements from him from ICCF-18 in 2013 and the Colloquium in 2019! - both times he spoke about the character of scientific research in the most elevated terms. I can't wait to put all my video together for this doc.) Anthropocene and I both got video of the same interviews (in some cases) - they were so helpful to me - so you will most likely see a few quotes from Robert Duncan in the video they will produce much sooner.
Others asked Duncan about the research too, and he kept having to say the same thing over and over again. He was consequently trying to keep a low profile so he wouldn't be put in an awkward position. I could tell he feels uncomfortable in the position he's in. He's truly an academic who loves scientific research as opposed to a commercially-minded person, not that there's anything wrong with that. It's the "in-between" that causes friction.
Mel Miles sent him his formula for computing the theoretical Pd-D Helium-4 totals (in ppb) but he hadn't seen it, so I gave him a copy and he was happy to have it.
-
This list is now out of date...Would be good to produce a new version. The source for this document is :-
http://condensed-plasmoids.com/players.html
the page is removed now, but in 2017 Anthropocene Inst put the LENRaries document together, listing participants in several categories.
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/57956157/lenraries/55
Of course THIS is out-of-date as well and may be why it was removed.
Things change so quickly......
-
Such countries are incapable of developing technology, or even implementing conventional technology. That is why they are desperate for energy. That is why Japan is rich and has abundant energy, whereas Mexico is poor, even though Japan has virtually no natural resources, and Mexico has among the most abundant resources of any country. If the small country was technically competent, they would install wind turbines, solar energy, or natural gas, all of which are at historic record low prices.
***Installing wind turbines, solar and buying natural gas are all on the buy side of the equation. Selling LENR boxes is on the SELL side of the equation. That's why Columbia has rich drug lords, not because they're so great about developing chemicals to make cocaine more pure or more medicinal, but because selling cocaine generated its own sell-side economics to the situation.
To understand cold fusion, we will probably need the most advanced diagnostic equipment, that I was told will probably cost ~$300 million.
***Sure, from this side of getting over the hump. But if you were a brilliant physicist like Parkhamov and someone signed you up for a $20M lab in exchange for 5% of the profits moving forward, you might just make it over that hump.
To manufacture it will require the kinds of equipment needed to make nicad batteries or computer chips, which cold fusion devices resemble. That is, the best automated materials processing and assembly robots available.
***You're thinking in terms of optimized product. But people buy VW bugs still in South America, not because it's optomized but because it's cheap and available. That's why Coal is still the #2 energy producer in America, not because it's optimized but it simply still works.
Only wealthy first world counties and China are capable of making such equipment. No small country desperate for energy could do it.
***I think a country as small as Liberia could do it.
Red tape does not impede technology. Red tape is what holds technology together, as Samuel Florman put it.
***Wow. Just wow. That's a topic completely on its own. You might as well say baloney is health food.
Take, for example, standards. The standards for the USB connection, IEEE 1394, is defined in a publication around 800 pages long. It was designed by a committee of experts from IBM, Intel, Microsoft, NEC and others. That is one small component in a computer.
***First of all, USB is not an example of red tape. Anyone who wants to can sell their own point-to-point serial connection. In fact, IBM had their own specification for networks, and it was Token Ring that brought it down due to ... the red tape of patent royalties because Olof Söderblom had the rights and was enforcing it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:IBM_Token_ring
Every other component is equally complex. The "red tape" that describes them would be thousands of pages long. To make one modest new digital device, you need to arrange to pay royalties to 5, 10 or maybe 50 different patent holders.
***Here you are making our point for us. I have seen engineers here in the USA screwed over royally by TSMC and Japanese Ministers of Trade just because those countries did not want to pay royalties. The reason why ethernet took over rather than Token Ring was patents. There will be a huge patent war over Cold Fusion and there will be whole countries that produce and sell LENR devices inside their own countries and outside. It will be a gigantic cluster frack.
Without all these standards, and without the detailed knowledge of thousands of experts, you could not make any high tech device nowadays.
***I could make a Token Ring network device all by myself, and sell it to every network in my own little tinhorn country. But eventually you want to be able to work with other countries so you end up taking a bite out of the same shiite sandwich that everyone does.
I don't mean a Boeing airplane I mean you could not make the computer controls for a hotel door lock system.
***You could do it, and you would own the market for every hotel door lock system in "Liberia". And you could even sell to other countries, for a while. Eventually it will catch up to you but in the meantime you have been selling $Billions worth of door lock systems and not paying royalties.
Before the first cold fusion device comes off the production lines, we will need many books and standards as complex as the IEEE 1394 standard.
***The Wright brothers managed to sell their airplanes without 500 page complex standards. The standards were developed LATER.
You cannot make reliable high tech devices without them.
***Sure you can. Just not reliable enough for bureaucrats in America.
There are no shortcuts.
***There are dozens. Even today, Taiwan and China are stealing Intellectual Property on wholesale levels.
We will also need millions of hours of safety testing, which is another thing small countries desperate for energy cannot do.
***Just ask what your average house in any 3rd world country has for electrical wiring and whether or not it complies with UL listings and that kind of bullsnot. You're back-applying American standards onto 3rd world countries that don't give a rat's azz.
Skip that, and you take a short cut which makes for long delays, as J. R. R. Tolkien put it.
***JRR Tolkien wrote fiction. If you're gonna argue forth from fiction, then be prepared to have your arguments labelled "fiction".
-
I sat next to Robert Duncan at the Colloquium and asked him about the research
Ruby has huge fan base on Lenr Forum... why wouldn't Duncan say anything?
There's always loopholes in those NDA's...
-
Robert B - not in Texas. We can thank the Fracking IP leaks for those laws.
-
the page is removed now, but in 2017 Anthropocene Inst put the LENRaries document together, listing participants in several categories.
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/57956157/lenraries/55
Of course THIS is out-of-date as well and may be why it was removed.Thanks Ruby! I remembered this page and went looking for it- I'm sure it contains some good info even if 'worn down by time.'
-
We can thank the Fracking IP leaks
I'm sure that Ruby can include Texas, fracking issues, NDA issues and LENR issues , even Duncan issues
in a sociological chat.
-
Jed Rothwell said :To understand cold fusion, we will probably need the most advanced diagnostic equipment, that I was told will probably cost ~$300 million.
***Sure, from this side of getting over the hump. But if you were a brilliant physicist like Parkhamov and someone signed you up for a $20M lab in exchange for 5% of the profits moving forward, you might just make it over that humLENR p.
Research is cheap in real terms, which is why Russ and I and others are able to pursue it on modest budgets. £10-15M would probably see it through to the next phase., which is the really expensive part, developing the findings of your research into commercial products.
-
Research is cheap in real terms, which is why Russ and I and others are able to pursue it on modest budgets. £10-15M would probably see it through to the next phase., which is the really expensive part, developing the findings of your research into commercial products.
Once you get 2 major scientific articles publishing that ordinary scientists who showed up to your experiment with Geiger counters were recording gamma rays 2-3x above background, the cat is out of the bag. It becomes a commercialization race. The bigger companies with their multi$billion patent portfolios and 3 floors full of lawyers will all have the advantage in the upcoming patent imbroglio. That's why Google is filing their patents now.
In the early 1980s there were like 25 companies selling microcomputers. There was a giant shakeout and only half a dozen survived. Of course, Microsoft was selling DOS to ALL of them, so they won big. The trick is to be the guy selling that thing that every manufacturer needs. What will that be for LENR? Rainey Nickel? NANORs? Pycnodeuterium?
-
The bigger companies with their multi$billion patent portfolios and 3 floors full of lawyers will all have the advantage in the upcoming patent imbroglio.
Too true. Russ and I reckon you would probably need a $5M+ war-chest to get you through that and far enough out the other side to carry on, maybe more. And we are not even working with the usual materials.
-
Microsoft was selling DOS to ALL of them
developing the findings of your research into commercial products.
DOS and a commercial Lenr reactor are not really comparable..
one is software which can be developed in an airconditioned garage
the other is hard hard hardware...its more comparable to semiconductor development which as Jed said.. took decades, was interdisciplinary,, and cost megabucks.
