In 1918, there was uncertain hygiene, a poor understanding of routes for contagion, no antivirals, no time or method to make a vaccine, and a lot of people had chronic diseases (tuberculosis, diabetes poorly treated, syphilis, etc.). Also many more people smoked cigarettes.
That's mostly true, but not true about cigarettes. See:
https://www.nap.edu/read/11795/chapter/4#42
In 1918, there was uncertain hygiene, a poor understanding of routes for contagion, no antivirals, no time or method to make a vaccine, and a lot of people had chronic diseases (tuberculosis, diabetes poorly treated, syphilis, etc.). Also many more people smoked cigarettes. On the other hand, today's population has a larger proportion of vulnerable people-- transplant recipients and HIV patients with degrees of immunosuppression and the elderly. So it's not clear what will happen.
Someone mentioned the lockdowns in Chinese cities? Maybe difficult but maybe necessary to prevent wholesale disease and many deaths.
I mentioned the lock downs, which affect 90 million people as of today, and that are being enforced at gunpoint as has been reported, and as of today, those that don't comply with mandatory quarantine (meaning those that fail to report recent travel to Wuhan before the lock down) can be subject even to death penalty. That, to the best of my recollection, never happened even with SARS.
Curbina Thanks for the references. I am probably not going to check them. I think the probability that parallel evolution took place on a distant planet and somehow the bacteria and viruses came here is truly weird hypothesis. If you want to continue the discussion, let me know and we can do it in Playground.
As to the draconian measures, obviously disproportionate penalties such as the death penalty are not suitable but it does make sense to restrict travel and enforce quarantine for infected or exposed persons until the epidemic recedes or an effective treatment or vaccine is found. I think those measures can be enforced without killing anyone. In the US, many if not most people, agree with the requirements and voluntarily submit to them.
JedRothwell Thanks for the correction about cigarettes in 1918. Nonetheless, the fact that the proportion of Chinese who smoke (and probably most other countries) compared to current rates in the US, may mean a slightly better prognosis in the US. On the other hand, the smoking of marijuana and the use of e-cigarettes may cancel it out. I guess we will see how this mess shakes out.
Tesla's blow weapon defense mode may stop coronavirus.. but keep you door closed..
Tesla Model S and X Hospital-Grade HEPA Filters May Help Prevent Coronavirus Infections
" the coronavirus was 120 nanometers or 0.12 microns. HEPA cabin air filters from PALL Aerospace—a company that specializes in filtration tech for aircraft—
have a removal efficacy of 99.999 percent, according to the company
. PALL notes that most viruses range in size from 0.01 to 0.2 micron. For example, the SARS and MERS virus were approximately 0.08 to 0.16 in size, respectively.
The aircraft filtration tech company tested its filters with the MS2 Coliphage virus,( 23 nm) and recorded a 99.999 percent efficiency.
Death rate
So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data.
The death rate for 2019-nCoV is still unclear, but it appears to be higher than that of the flu. Throughout the outbreak, the death rate for 2019-nCoV has been about 2%. Still, officials note that in the beginning of an outbreak, the initial cases that are identified "skew to the severe," which may make the mortality rate seem higher than it is, Alex Azar, secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Homeland Security (HHS), said during a news briefing on Jan. 28. The mortality rate may drop as more mild cases are identified, Azar said.
The two unknowns for 2019-nCoV are:
(1) mortality rate
(2) human-human transmissability.
(1) affects how bad it is if it becomes pandemic. (2) affects whether it will become pandemic or merely have continuing outbreaks.
(1) we do not have accurate figures for. The ratio of deaths/hospitalised is too low when numbers hospitalised climb so much, and in any case these figures from China in this chaos are less reliable than we'd like. However the amount of community infection with mild symptoms is also unknown. That would make figures for deaths/infected too (EDIT typo) high.
Best estimate seems to be around 2% which would make a pandemic very serious indeed but not a catastrophe. But as far as I can see best estimates are at the moment very uncertain.
In addition it is not clear, since this virus seems new, whether it will mutate in ways that alter death rate or transmissability. That is cause for real concern.
THH
From vortex-l : https://translate.google.com/t…A%2F%2Farchive.is%2FObawP
Possibly you have to multiply all official figure by a factor of at least 5 up to 50 .... For Wuhan the situation is out of control.
The infected ones on the Yokohama cruise-ship went from 2 10 20 60 (one day steps) . This does not look like a simple disease. Staying in a cabin without an air condition equipped with HEPA filters will probably infect all on board...
From vortex-l : https://translate.google.com/t…A%2F%2Farchive.is%2FObawP
Possibly you have to multiply all official figure by a factor of at least 5 up to 50 .... For Wuhan the situation is out of control.
The infected ones on the Yokohama cruise-ship went from 2 10 20 60 (one day steps) . This does not look like a simple disease. Staying in a cabin without an air condition equipped with HEPA filters will probably infect all on board...
I had read elsewhere that the infected number in that cruise were being released as the tests were being performed, as it takes hours to know the results.
latest genetic mapping indicates the possible source is the Pangolin anteater. 99% match.
latest genetic mapping indicates the possible source is the Pangolin anteater. 99% match.
And Pangolins are endangered, because they are being hunted in the forests of SE Asia and sold in the food markets of China as 'medicine meat'....
QuoteI had read elsewhere that the infected number in that cruise were being released as the tests were being performed, as it takes hours to know the results.
Rapid, "real time" corona virus detection (the virus, not just antibodies) is now possible through a novel method, rRT-PCR:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru…tection-instructions.html
But, as you can see at the link, this is a delicate, somewhat hazardous (contagion) and expensive test.
See also: https://www.labce.com/spg10506…n_polymerase_chain_r.aspx
This is essentially very high gain DNA amplification and is similar to some of the methods used to amplify and characterize DNA from crime scenes. Obviously, rRT-PCR could be a very valuable tool to help control the epidemic, a tool of a type not available in early pandemics in the 1900's. How widespread its use becomes is still uncertain, especially in less developed countries.
ETA from "AMA Morning Rounds:"
QuoteDisplay MoreLeading the News
CDC ships coronavirus tests to U.S., international labs to enable quick results
The Hill (2/6, Hellmann) reports the CDC on Wednesday shipped coronavirus tests it developed “to U.S. and international laboratories, including those at state and local public health departments.” The tests “will enable departments to identify new cases with increased speed – the test can provide results in four hours.” Roughly 400 test kits “will be distributed domestically and internationally.”
Meanwhile, The Hill (2/6, Mitchell) reports HHS “has asked the Pentagon to find military installations near 11 major airports that could potentially house up to 220 U.S. citizens quarantined due to the novel coronavirus, according to a Defense Department statement released Thursday.” The agency’s statement “notes that the military facilities would house up to 20 people each ‘as they undergo a period of quarantined observation,’ but would be third in line to place individuals as ‘HHS already has primary and secondary locations identified that are not DOD facilities.’” Defense Secretary Mark Esper “is expected to support the request for the locations, which would be used ‘should HHS facilities become filled.’”
400 kits? Drop in bucket amount.
400 kits? Drop in bucket amount.
400 kits is enough to evaluate the efficacy of the kits themselves. That is, the ease of use, accuracy, suitability in the field, and so on. I assume that is the purpose.
Also, at this point, the number of patients needed to be tested at U.S. facilities is very low. International laboratories need many more kits.
Kits to detect ordinary influenza take only minutes. I was surprised at that. Years ago, during a routine physical, the doctor took a swab from me and came back a few minutes later saying I had influenza. It was twice surprising because it was so quick and because I was vaccinated. The vaccination did not work. However, it did reduce the severity so much that I did not realize I was infected.
I hope that rapid diagnostic kit will soon be available for the Wuhan flu.
Pangolins are endangered
Not having sweet and sour pangolin anymore.
SE Asian forests echo with Wuflu.. woohoo.!
https://www.sciencemediacentre…ossible-coronavirus-host/
"
“From the virology evidence available to date, the virus is almost certainly from a species of bat. It is, however, entirely possible that a relatively promiscuous virus could jump from bats to pangolins – or other species – in a wet market or similar unnatural situation, and then from pangolins to people. Hendra virus, for example, jumped from bats to horses to people.
Although all humans known to have been infected by Hendra have been infected from horses, it is still a bat virus.
“Where large numbers of live animals of different species are brought together from different areas and held in captivity in overcrowded and unhygienic conditions, the likelihood of an animal being present that carries a potentially zoonotic virus is increased.
Also, the chances that that animal will be stressed and will be shedding (or excreting) the virus will be increased.
“Live wild animal markets, such as the huge “wet” markets in China, therefore, are ideal places for zoonotic virus emergence to occur. Just as SARS did, the new coronavirus is thought to have emerged from a wet market in China.
The highest priority for the protection of human health is,
Therefore, to ban “wet” (live wild animal) markets and to carefully regulate any future legal wildlife trade.
This article in a Chinese media did a survey in 2 crematoriums of Wuhan. The numbers gathered lent strong support to the idea that the official fatality rate is being absolutely manipulated. These 2 crematoriums out of 11 in Wuhan claim they are incinerating an average of 500 bodies of deceased pneumonia victims per day.
Posting the google translate link as the original is in Chinese.
This article in a Chinese media did a survey in 2 crematoriums of Wuhan. The numbers gathered lent strong support to the idea that the official fatality rate is being absolutely manipulated. These 2 crematoriums out of 11 in Wuhan claim they are incinerating an average of 500 bodies of deceased pneumonia victims per day.
Posting the google translate link as the original is in Chinese.
Quite sad, is this above or below official reports in number?
Quite sad, is this above or below official reports in number?
As I already said above "pneumonia" is not counted as corona in official statistics. You have to multiply now all figures of corona death with at least 20 (at most 50) for the Wuhan region.
Even in Switzerland state started to officially down play corona. This is absolutely suspect as we still have no cases here. Also media today stopped to release the death figures (the are anyway fake..) .
Corona will very soon have a huge impact on finance markets as all major companies now have shut down their China subsidiaries. I think the finance people like to have some extra days to rescue some high impact portfolios...
Wyttenbach trust no one? What Does interest in downplaying? Would they be the first to benefit from media crazyness? Like storing gold and Bitcoin in the caves?
Let it go.
An AI-powered simulation run by a technology executive says that Coronavirus could infect as many as 2.5 billion people within 45 days and kill as many as 52.9 million of them.
That does not sound right. It is now doubling every 4 to 6 days. Assuming it is 4 days, in 45 days that would be 2048 times more. That's 63 million cases, if I have done my arithmetic right. Not 2.5 billion.
I do not think it is likely to continue doubling every 4 days. I think they will slow it down. It seems to be spreading more slowly outside of Wuhan, and the survival rate is much better in other cities. I think they botched the response in Wuhan, especially by crowding people together for hours in hospitals waiting for treatment.
Then again, they might botch it again . . .
The 52.9 million is 2% of 2.5 billion. A straight extrapolation. It is around 2% in Wuhan but in other cities the mortality rate is much lower. I quoted the N.Y. Times yesterday: "The fatality rate in Wuhan is 4.1 percent and 2.8 percent in Hubei, compared to 0.17 percent elsewhere in mainland China." 4.1 is dreadful! 0.17 is in line with ordinary influenza, HOWEVER, many people avoid getting ordinary influenza because there is vaccine. In the U.S. only 37% of adults get a flu shot, but still, that's a lot of lives saved every year. If the Wuhan flu hits the U.S., I guess there will be at least ~37% more fatalities than ordinary flu. Of course it is hard to predict at this stage. The CDC says influenza kills 12,000 to 61,000 people per year in the U.S.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
If there is any silver lining to this dreadful cloud, it may be that the anti-vaccination idiots shut up for a few years.
If the anti-vax people killed only themselves I would put them up for a Darwin Award. Unfortunately, they mainly kill their own children.
QuoteYears ago, during a routine physical, the doctor took a swab from me and came back a few minutes later saying I had influenza.
A variety of methods have been used to test for influenza over the years. Depending on when it was done, it may have been RT-PCR or something else. Some of the older simple and CLIA-waived tests had sensitivities of as little as 40% when compared to more complex, expensive and difficult methods. This is much better now. But still, a choice is complicated. See for example:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/profes…inician_guidance_ridt.htm and https://www.cdc.gov/flu/profes…osis/molecular-assays.htm and https://www.cdc.gov/flu/profes…cleic-acid-detection.html
QuoteIt was twice surprising because it was so quick and because I was vaccinated. The vaccination did not work. However, it did reduce the severity so much that I did not realize I was infected.
I don't understand. If you had few or no symptoms, the vaccination worked. Vaccinations often do not prevent disease but when they markedly reduce symptoms and risk of complications, they certainly "worked."
If you take the trouble to review the procedure and requirements for rRT-PCR testing for corona virus, you will recognize this process is both precise and tedious and therefore expensive. Browse this: https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru…tection-instructions.html It is not a simple dipstick or color change test like, for example a pregnancy test or urine screen or strep throat swab Better and easier tests may be developed of course but the one described by CDC is difficult.
