Covid-19 News

  • In a shocking but not surprising manifestation of the realities of economic state and race and ethnicity in America, it becomes apparent that the current surge in infections and hospitalizations in Los Angeles County is predominantly a Black and Latino problem—the mainstream media, of course, doesn’t want to delve into this matter. Blacks by far bear the brunt of the pathogen’s wrath.


    First, race and ethnicity correlate with a proclivity for vaccination in Los Angeles County. While the mainstream media seeks to stoke divisive fires, shaming people and generally vilifying individuals that haven’t opted for vaccination, they often imply that this group of “vaccine-hesitant” people fall into the group of political “right wings,” or “anti-vaxxer” loons. Even subtle attacks have been made on born-again Christians and other assorted conservative caricatures. Of course, the actual truth is very different from the emerging Biden administration narrative. Instead, there is a plethora of rationale for why people avoid or wait to receive a vaccination.


    But that’s the kind of tone coming out of Washington nowadays as the champagne socialist set now runs the show. Indeed, they have ruthlessly embraced a national narrative that doesn’t allow us to clearly or accurately pinpoint the true problem. The reality is that there is a sizable population that directly knows someone in their network that has either experienced a major adverse event or even death in association with the mass vaccination program. Out of the 11,000+ deaths reported in VAERS, the CDC declares that just three or so of these mortalities can be directly correlated, causally, to the jab. Yet when clustering the data, a very uncomfortable number of cases occur within 24 to 36 hours of the event, often in perfectly healthy people. People sense something is off, and they don’t like it when the government doesn’t offer more transparency in such circumstances.


    This is deeply worrying and mostly false misinformation. In fact I find myself worried (and made angry) by a lot of COVID comment from the US. How can a medical emergency become a left-right political issue as the above makes it? Appalling. And highly immoral.


    Blacks by far bear the brunt of the pathogen’s wrath.


    Assuming similar age demographics, there are two main factors that determine how much of a problem COVID is:


    1. What fraction of subgroup is unvaccinated (problem will be almost exactly proportional to this)

    2. What is the speed of COVID spread within the subgroup - as determined by environmentally determined social distancing

    3. What is average health, access to healthcare, etc


    Points 2. and 3. above correlates more COVID with socio-economic status, since manual non-work-at-home jobs, cramped housing, multi-generational households, multiple-occupancy buildings all make for faster COVID spread. Vaccination (for delta) reduces but in no way stops spread. Basically, COVID attacks those who are poorer, and in the US that correlates with hispanic and black minorities.


    Black & Latino subgroups have more COVID infection risk because of 2. Look at the bar graphs below for 1. You can see that Asian subgroups are much better vaccinated everywhere except weirdly for S Dakota (does S Dakota actually have any population??). Hispanic subgroups are below white and black in quite a few places, above in some. If you average it there is not a LOT of difference. Give that overall risk is simply (1 - fraction vaccinated) you can see that vaccination differences are not going to make a big difference overall except that fewer Asians will die than other races.


    Putting these factors together we have https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru…th-by-race-ethnicity.html. Note however that this is deaths throughout the pandemic, and therefore does not take into account current relative rates of vaccination and therefore current risks. That will make Asians the least affected by COVID.




    While the mainstream media seeks to stoke divisive fires, shaming people and generally vilifying individuals that haven’t opted for vaccination,


    No-one should vilify people who are misinformed, or have biological problems, and therefore make unwise health choices. We do not do this over smokers, or drinkers, or people who eat too much and are obese. It is unfair when the root cause is biological (e.g. genetic poor processing of satiety causes obesity). it is profoundly unhelpful when the root cause is misinformation: any psychologist will tell you that jeering at people does not make them inclined to change.


    Mainstream media has been saying that vaccination protects individuals and communities - which is just a fact. It has also been saying that those actors (e.g. the 12 vaccine misinformation super-spreaders) that have contributed to vaccine hesitancy have caused enormous harm both to the health and economy of teh US.


    they often imply that this group of “vaccine-hesitant” people fall into the group of political “right wings,” or “anti-vaxxer” loons.


    I'm sorry if any media in the US do that. those who are vaccine-hesitant are simply misinformed. I suppose they do include a subgroup of "anti-vaxxers" who actively source this misinformation. Whether these are out of touch with reality, or simply very bad people who value ideology over the US health and economy I don't know. See below for politics - as FM1 pointed out a while ago this is not simple. In the US, uniquely, there is currently a left/right divide on this issue that you do not see in other countries. However the "anti-vaxxers" come from both left and right wing extremes. It is a great shame that the US has become so politically polarised.


    Indeed, they have ruthlessly embraced a national narrative that doesn’t allow us to clearly or accurately pinpoint the true problem. The reality is that there is a sizable population that directly knows someone in their network that has either experienced a major adverse event or even death in association with the mass vaccination program.


    This is where I feel the OP quote most clearly tips over into anti-vaxxer (and therefore immoral) territory. The vaccine side effects are not common. The VAERS coincidental events are for old people clearly much more frequent, and for young people very significant. That is a fact. This text conflates the two things, and claims people are vaccine hesitant because they are told via social media about such coincidences. That may be true - it is lack of clarity, and suspicion of the correct analyses that distinguishes between association and causation unpicking the data, that cause this hesitancy. And mealy-mouthed misleading anti-vax write-ups like this contribute largely to this problem.


    Out of the 11,000+ deaths reported in VAERS, the CDC declares that just three or so of these mortalities can be directly correlated, causally, to the jab. Yet when clustering the data, a very uncomfortable number of cases occur within 24 to 36 hours of the event, often in perfectly healthy people. People sense something is off, and they don’t like it when the government doesn’t offer more transparency in such circumstances.


    This is now full-blooded anti-vax. Whether the recorded events are background or vaccination-related is something every scientist is writing papers on. It is a proper and determinable scientific issue - although one that cannot be quickly determined because you need a lot of data to separate out causality from background. The OP quote is anti-vax lies because it is making rehetorical points here rather than looking at and reporting, neutrally, the scientific data. Such write-ups cause people to be vaccine-hesitant and the author of this piece must surely know that.

  • Vaccination subgroups.


    A lot of the anti-vaxxer right-wing comment (as opposed to anti-vaxxer left-wing comment) makes points about how COVID is primarily a black/latino problem. The purpose of this seems to be so that white people can dismiss COVID as "not a problem for us". Asians (for whom COVID is even less a problem) do not seem to share this meme.


    But COVID is a problem for everyone, as all right-thinking people will acknowledge. Even if you are at no personal risk., the risk to the economy remains. Even in absence of government lockdown it remains, because stretched health systems and pictures of people dying in hospitals make most people cautious.


    As you can see above the vaccination race breakdown is not simple. Asians win, Whites are very slightly ahead of Blacks, who are a bit more ahead of Hispanics, but there is not much in it.


    In the analysis of polling below the one thing I just cannot understand is the high percentage of US citizens (of both parties) who believe the vaccine is a tool of the government to implant microchips. Quite extraordinary.


    What about political breakdown? I am giving this because many commentators do not, but do give a racial breakdown. I'm not sure it is helpful to anyone to give any breakdown, but if we need to understand causes of hesitancy it can be helpful. In this case the one very clear cause is politics.


    Pollsters, accustomed to asking such quaint queries as "Do you support such-and-such?" and "Do you think the country is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?" are now posing questions they never imagined they'd ask – or have to ask.

    For Robert Jones, CEO and founder of the research group PRRI, the survey question came in April, when the group – which examines the intersection of religion, politics and culture – asked whether people agreed that "the COVID-19 vaccine contains a surveillance microchip that is the sign of the beast in biblical prophecy."


    "As a survey researcher and social scientist, that's a question I wrote that I never thought I'd put on paper," Jones says. But as it happens, 9% agreed and another 16% only "mostly" disagreed. Jones also has recently asked respondents if they believe that government, the financial community and the media are "controlled by Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex-trafficking operation." Turns out, 15% of Americans (and 23% of Republicans) think that's the case.

    YouGov, another polling operation, asked a similar question this month about the COVID vaccine. Nearly a third (32%) of Republicans believe the vaccine is a tool for the government to implant microchips, compared to 14% of Democrats and 18% of independents who ascribe to the bizarre (and dangerous) theory. About two-thirds (65%) of Democrats and less than a third (32%) of Republicans believe the theory is "definitely false."


    The numbers are more than just astonishing, especially given the wide availability of scientific information from professionals in the field, experts say. They reveal a deep divide along party lines that threatens not only to undermine faith in democracy, but faith in a vaccine that could determine whether the nation is headed to yet another big spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths.


    And to the extent that is already happening, it's happening along party lines, as the new wave of the pandemic becomes a crisis of the unvaccinated. The nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation found that 75% of Democrats have already been vaccinated; just 41% of Republicans said the same. Blue states are more likely to have tighter mask or vaccines rules; colleges that require vaccination, for example, are more likely to be located in states President Joe Biden won last November, KFF reports.



    Non-partisan KFF "in their own words" what did people who have become more sure they do not want the vaccine said?


    In their own words: What changed your mind?

    “COVID was not the pandemic it was made out to be and I am not getting vaccinated for it” – 26 year old, female, white, Republican, Iowa (“ASAP” in January)


    “This event seems more and more just like the flu. Everyone is exposed and has the same chance of getting it. I never got a flu vaccine either. This whole mask thing is a joke. Most people wear them beneath their nose or even chin. This event is over for me except as mandated to me by those above me who control me in some way such as employer.” – 58 year old, male, black, independent, Alabama (“wait and see” in January)


    “My daughter has had covid and I never tested positive or showed symptoms, and she never had symptoms. My thought is I am either immune or I have antibodies. My other thought is that we didn’t have it and they made the numbers grow by false positive tests.” – 28 year old, female, white, Republican, Tennessee (“wait and see” in January)



    And comment from https://www.usnews.com/news/th…a-deadly-political-divide


    Why should something like medicine be a political issue?

    For many vaccine-reluctant or vaccine-hostile Republicans, "it's Big Brother meets 'Lord of the Flies,'" says John Geer, a Vanderbilt University professor and co-director of a recent Vanderbilt University poll showing a deep partisan divide on vaccines and the danger of the pandemic. That survey found that 74% of Republicans agreed with the statement that the pandemic "is largely over and things should go back to the way they were," while 14% of Democrats agreed.


    "It's also a political statement," Geer says. In ruby red Tennessee, "if you're walking around with a mask on, people will assume you're a Democrat instead of assuming you have not been vaccinated," he says.


    Similar divisions occur when Americans are asked about the integrity of the presidential election. In Arizona, where a much-derided audit is underway to search for allegedly fraudulent votes in Maricopa County, which Biden won on his way to capturing the Grand Canyon State. Some 61% of Republicans believe the evidence shows Trump really won the state, according to a OH Predictive Insights poll. Just 15% of Democrats share that view.

    "The two parties are literally at war with each other," with other OH Predictive Insights polling showing deep divides on the dangers of the pandemic and the trustworthiness of vaccines, says Mike Noble, the firm's chief of research.


    COVID "is the honey badger of political issues. It doesn't care about your religion, political affiliation, or ethnicity – COVID doesn't care. Yet it's regarded as a partisan football because now everything is regarded as a partisan football," Noble says.

    Trump has clearly driven much of the divide, continuing to claim, without evidence, that the election was stolen from him and being tepid in endorsing the vaccine (which he has received). The YouGov poll, in fact, found that Republicans are far more likely to trust Trump's medical advice (62% do) than that of Fauci (21% of Republicans trust the veteran doctor's guidance on medical matters).


    But it's not all about Trump, Jones says. "I think what's happened is that the divide in this country was something that was clearly in motion before Trump entered the political scene. But he does step onto a stage that is remarkably well set for his personality and his style, and he quickly understood that, and understood how to manipulate the set," says Jones, author of the book "White Too Long: The Legacy of White Supremacy in American Christianity."

    Demographic and social changes have meant a drop in the percentage of white evangelical Christians in America, and "a lot of the Two Americas we're seeing today is really an over-reaction to this existential threat to white Christian America," Jones says.


    Chris Haynes, a political science professor at the University of New Haven, says the trend started back in the so-called Republican Revolution of 1994, when frustrated Americans started losing faith in not just government, but other institutions.

    With Trump as a powerful messenger, it's easy for people to believe whatever "facts" – true or not – that reaffirm their grievances and view of the world, he says. "They're willing to believe almost anything," he adds.


    For Republicans, the deep distrust could be deadly – literally as well as politically. Undermining faith in the electoral process may well have cost the GOP two U.S. Senate seats; Democratic Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won special election runoffs in January in the Peach State in part because Trump was insisting the state's elections officials could not be trusted.

    And the tragic reality is that those who refuse to get the vaccine are far more likely to get very ill or die from COVID – and that means Republicans could lose followers, Geer notes.

    "We're now playing on a different field" politically, Geer says. "It's one reality vs. another reality." This time, one set of followers literally may not survive.


    THH comment. Just as the view that COVID is visited on us by Gaia to reduce earth population, the idea that higher COVID deaths from Republicans could be politically significant is not very realistic, the IFR is low enough that while such an effect will exist, it will also be small. When you look at the age breakdown it is always (not surprisingly) those least at risk who are most hesitant. So the large difference in hesitancy between dem and rep voters will not turn into as large a corresponding difference in death as the IFR would lead you to believe.

  • USA:: Already 15% of hospital entries among fully vaccinated.

    Delta is as transmissible as chicken Pox.


    Overall CDC is still optimistic. But USA has a back leg to Israel of 2 months. There we know protection from Pfizer did break down after 5 months...So the 15% will go up to 35..50% within one more month.


    Dear all, I'm sorry to keep doing this but not everyone is smart like W and so in a postion to realise that he is (consistently - it has been repeated by him many time) misusing stats here.


    I'll go on calling this out - it is self-evidently false.


    You cannot use percentage of hospital cases which are breakthrough infections as a measure of how good or bad the vaccine is.


    When everyone at risk is vaccinated, there will be no-one in hospital not vaccinated, and therefore 100% of hospital infections will be breakthrough. That does not mean the vaccine is less good.

  • This is a fascinating study about how much misinformation about vaccines affects intent to get vaccinated in different sub-groups


    Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on vaccination intent in the UK and USA - Nature Human Behaviour
    A randomized controlled trial reveals that exposure to recent online misinformation around a COVID-19 vaccine induces a decline in intent to vaccinate among…
    www.nature.com


    You will all be relieved to know that it did get ethical approval (you might wonder) because of the debriefing that those participants who got the misinformation were given!


    Ethical approval for this study was obtained by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine ethics committee on 15 June 2020 with reference 22647. A total of 8,001 respondents recruited via an online panel were surveyed by ORB (Gallup) International (www.orb-international.com) between 7 and 14 September 2020. Respondent quotas for each country and each group (that is both treatment and control) were set according to national demographic distributions for gender, age, and sub-national region—the four census regions in the USA59 and first level of nomenclature of territorial units in the UK60. Following randomized treatment assignment, 3,000 UK and 3,001 US respondents were exposed to images of recently circulating online misinformation related to COVID-19 and vaccines (treatment group) and 1,000 respondents in each country were shown images of factual information about a COVID-19 vaccine to serve as a randomized control (control group). All respondents exposed to misinformation were debriefed after the survey; debriefing information can be found in the questionnaire included in Supplementary Information.

  • Mortality for delta has yet to be determined but based on the little data we have it does not look more lethal .

    Human immunity is a multi step process. As long as a virus first infects the nasal airways only, a faster replication is better as this stimulates a very strong non local immune reaction. So I recommend to go to crowded places and to get soft touches with delta - if you know how you can prevent (Zinc, V-D (5000),Orange juice and a little IVM) a fast curb up.

    But that ratio does not mean that vaccination is 40X less protective than natural immunity.

    In reality natural immunity is even better as many people with natural protection have been vaccinated an fall out of the stats! So more realistic it's 80x better.

    Los Angeles County health officials report that over 25% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the nation’s most populated county are occurring among the fully vaccinated.

    No wonder. They should do an anti body study among unvaccinated people age <55. But big pharma will oppose..

    Based on all of the above, it becomes already apparent that mass vaccination campaigns conducted in the midst of a pandemic of more infectious variants will rapidly and dramatically weaken, instead of strengthen, the population’s overall immune protection status and, therefore, not contribute to generating herd immunity.

    Only fools kill themselves. Who follows the cricket brains deserves no better.

    Between Dr. Wen, Governor Newsom, and CDC Director Walensky, I cannot say which one is more nonsensical and inept. I continue to struggle to pin down who wears that crown as these three lockdown lunatics seem to outdo each other daily with their efforts toward stupidity and verbal tripe. What a trio of misinformation and unscientific, highly unsound falsehoods they repeat daily to the public. Always uninformed. All this crap they are talking about Delta. Delta, Delta, Delta. But we have looked at the evidence, and it is infectious, but it is not deadly. It is not lethal. This is the current evidence, so we do not know where they get their junk science from to underpin the masking of the vaccinated who are indoors. Or even a push for broad mask use at this time.

    Cricket brains are everywhere. Members of the FM sect/mafia deeply believe being higher/selected species. That's one qualification for a cricket brain! Crickets also eat and eat now it's in total 80 billions and some already talk about raising vaccine prizes for taxpayers.

    The international common law of handling pandemics forbids that big pharma makes any profit from it. Here even worse things happen. USA/DE/UK payed all actual vaccine development costs and Now Pfizer/Moderna/Astra rape the states without ever having invested any risk money.


    An other cricket brain here believes that a 6x infection rate (based on real data) among black people is racism. May be it's already vaccine damage or Altzheimer that he forgets:: Blacks are low on V-D, live (In a large number) in bad/shadowed locations along heavily used roads and have less money for buying good food and even V-D, zinc. They also must work after an infection, they first will hide. They also work in much larger numbers in crowed places without an FP98 mask - just a fake surgical mask that, gives you at best a 20% protection for max 2 hours...

  • You cannot use percentage of hospital cases which are breakthrough infections as a measure of how good or bad the vaccine is.

    Well all can do it: You just don't like it as all other cricket brains members do too.


    Here we no longer look at case numbers. Only hospital/ICU entries do count. Germany makes this shift too, despite some cricket brain cabinet members. Do you get this???

    Cases (single peek) are up about 10x from the low. ICU is up 50% from the low. But looking at 15 days ICU avg it's only a change of 20%.


    20% change in ICU due to Delta despite 8x more cases. This must be a really dangerous virus now....

  • Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains



    Abstract

    Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.

  • An other cricket brain here believes that a 6x infection rate (based on real data) among black people is racism.


    I believe that in the UK cricket brain would be a compliment, since cricket is a complex game requiring multi-factorial strategic thinking. A bit like COVID.


    Whomever this comment is addressed to, let me just say that I must have missed it, but I'm sure they or you were wrong since racism is not defined by differential infection rates.


    OTOH - differential infection rates are determined in part by socioeconomic status which, it could be argued, might be related to historic racism. No-one here has however made that claim, I'm just pointing it out for accuracies sake.

  • Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.

    Tell that to BoJo

  • Well all can do it: You just don't like it as all other cricket brains members do too.


    Here we no longer look at case numbers. Only hospital/ICU entries do count. Germany makes this shift too, despite some cricket brain cabinet members. Do you get this???

    Cases (single peek) are up about 10x from the low. ICU is up 50% from the low. But looking at 15 days ICU avg it's only a change of 20%.


    20% change in ICU due to Delta despite 8x more cases. This must be a really dangerous virus now....

    OK - so my understanding is that you have now agreed with me that your previous argument was incorrect and have a new one.


    Since ICU admission lags cases you would need to look at a lagged version of the case rate and compare that with ICU data. You have not done that.

  • Delta has defeated the vaccine as I said it would

    No, it has not. The vaccine protect against Delta nearly as well as alpha and the original virus. I do not know where you read that the vaccine is defeated, but that is wrong. All reports say that nearly every delta patient now in U.S. hospitals was not vaccinated. Only a handful of vaccinated people have become seriously ill or died. The vaccination reduces the likelihood of serious illness or death from delta by a factor or roughly 100.


    You need to look for better sources of information.

  • No, it has not. The vaccine protect against Delta nearly as well as alpha and the original virus. I do not know where you read that the vaccine is defeated, but that is wrong. All reports say that nearly every delta patient now in U.S. hospitals was not vaccinated. Only a handful of vaccinated people have become seriously ill or died. The vaccination reduces the likelihood of serious illness or death from delta by a factor or roughly 100.


    You need to look for better sources of information.

    I guess you haven't read today's headlines

  • Quote

    I am sure Fauci does not believe that HCQ works fine.

    How can you be sure about it? Fauci is notorious liar.

    No, it has not. The vaccine protect against Delta nearly as well as alpha and the original virus. I do not know where you read that the vaccine is defeated, but that is wrong. All reports say that nearly every delta patient now in U.S. hospitals was not vaccinated. Only a handful of vaccinated people have become seriously ill or died. The vaccination reduces the likelihood of serious illness or death from delta by a factor or roughly 100.

    I find somehow surprising to hear such a proclamations just from person who is perfectly aware how deeply scientific community ignored and dismissed subject of cold fusion just from primitive egoistic economical reasons.


    What leads you into conviction, that Ivermectin/HCQ wasn't boycotted on the ground of the same motivation like cold fusion?

  • How can you be sure about it? Fauci is notorious liar.

    I'm assuming given his position and qualifications that he is vaguely capable of reading research: and the RCT evidence on HCQ overall is neutral if not negative.


    The question was about beliefs, not what he said, so whether he is a liar or not does not change this.


    However, as anyone who has been the public face of medicine in the US, he is somewhat political - in the sense he needs to be tactful, and say things in ways that will not grt misinterpreted in sound bytes.


    Your link to him saying that NIH has not funded GoF research is not a lie.


    They funded research on Coronaviruses that was not intended or likely to add function to them that would make them more able to attack humans.


    That therefore, according to NIH definitions (and the ones used in the grant) is not GoF research.


    You may not like this. You may point out that GoF is defined differently by some people, and therefore some would consider this GoF research. You may reckon (basking in a post-COVID awareness) reckon any research on coronaviruses is too risky and should not be done, even if its purpose is to prevent the next coronavirus outbreak. You cannot, based on Fauci's entirely consistent statements, call him a liar.


    Take home:


    Perlman told us that he thought Fauci’s response in the May 11 exchange was correct — that no money was given for gain-of-function research. But, he added, there’s a scientific discussion to be had on the benefits and risks of research making recombinant viruses, which involves rearranging or combining genetic material. The politicization of the issue, Perlman said, “doesn’t do anybody good.”



    Long version:


    A disagreement between Republican Sen. Rand Paul and Dr. Anthony Fauci has put $600,000 of U.S. grant money to the Wuhan Institute of Virology back into the spotlight, while making “gain-of-function” research a household term — all amid calls for more investigation into the origins of SARS-CoV-2.

    At issue is whether the National Institutes of Health funded research on bat coronaviruses that could have caused a pathogen to become more infectious to humans and, separately, if SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes the disease COVID-19 — transferred naturally from bats to humans, possibly through an intermediate host animal, or if a virus, a naturally occurring one or a lab-enhanced one, was accidentally released from the Wuhan lab.

    There are a lot of unknowns, speculation and differences of opinion on these topics. But let’s start with what we do know: In 2014, the NIH awarded a grant to the U.S.-based EcoHealth Alliance to study the risk of the future emergence of coronaviruses from bats. In 2019, the project was renewed for another five years, but it was canceled in April 2020 — three months after the first case of the coronavirus was confirmed in the U.S.

    EcoHealth ultimately received $3.7 million over six years from the NIH and distributed nearly $600,000 of that total to China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology, a collaborator on the project, pre-approved by NIH.

    The grant cancellation came at a time when then-President Donald Trump and others questioned the U.S. funding to a lab in Wuhan, while exaggerating the amount of federal money involved.

    Wuhan, of course, is where the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic emerged in late 2019.

    The Wuhan Institute of Virology has studied bat coronaviruses for years and their potential to ultimately infect humans, under the direction of scientist Shi Zhengli, as the Scientific American explained in a June 2020 story. Such zoonotic transfer — meaning transmission of a virus from an animal to a human — of coronaviruses occurred with the SARS and MERS coronaviruses, which led to global outbreaks in 2003 and 2012. Both viruses are thought to have started in bats, and then transferred into humans through intermediate animals — civets and racoon dogs, in the case of SARS, and camels in the case of MERS.

    Experts have suspected the SARS-CoV-2 virus similarly originated in bats. Researchers in China — including at the Wuhan Institute of Virology — have said the virus shares 96% of its genome with a bat virus collected by researchers in 2013 in Yunnan Province, China. (While that’s quite similar, Dr. Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa who studies coronaviruses and a pediatric infectious disease physician, told us it would be “impossible” to take such a virus and make the kind of changes required to turn it into SARS-CoV-2 in a lab. One would need a virus that’s 99.9% similar, and “in theory it might work.”)

    An article published in Nature Medicine in March 2020 said that the virus likely originated through “natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer,” or “natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer.” The researchers, who analyzed genomic data, said SARS-CoV-2 “is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.” While they said an accidental laboratory release of the naturally occurring virus can’t be ruled out, they said they “do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.”

    In an April 2020 statement, University of Sydney professor Edward Holmes, who was involved in mapping the genome of SARS-CoV-2, responded to “unfounded speculation” that the bat virus with 96% similarity was the origin of SARS-CoV-2. He said: “In summary, the abundance, diversity and evolution of coronaviruses in wildlife strongly suggests that this virus is of natural origin. However, a greater sampling of animal species in nature, including bats from Hubei province, is needed to resolve the exact origins of SARS-CoV-2.”

    The U.S. Intelligence Community said in an April 30, 2020, statement that it “concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified,” and that it “will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”

    The zoonotic transfer theory hasn’t been proven; for example, no intermediate animal host, as was the case for SARS of MERS, has yet been identified. Lab-accident theories haven’t been proven either — whether a lab worker could have been infected by a naturally occurring virus and then transmitted it outside the lab, or, as Paul and others suggest, a lab-manipulated virus could be the origin.

    But recently there has been renewed debate over the origin. On May 14 the journal Science published a letter from 18 scientists calling for “more investigation” to determine how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic began. “Theories of accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable,” they wrote. “Knowing how COVID-19 emerged is critical for informing global strategies to mitigate the risk of future outbreaks.”

    Jesse Bloom, one of the organizers of that letter, who studies viral evolution at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, told us in an email: “We know that SARS-CoV-2 is similar to other coronaviruses that circulate in bats, so the deep origins of the virus are definitely from bat coronaviruses. As far as the immediate proximal origins, we simply don’t know the details.”

    Bloom said zoonotic transfer either directly from a bat to a human or through an intermediate host animal is possible, as is a lab accident from research of similar viruses. “Because we don’t know the details for either of these scenarios, it’s not possible to say whether a hypothetical lab accident would have involved a virus exactly identical to that isolated in nature, or one that had been grown or somehow modestly manipulated in a lab. At this point, all of these are hypothetical scenarios, and while different scientists may have different guesses at how likely each scenario is, we need more information before anyone can be certain.”

    The scientists are hardly alone in calling for more investigation.

    As the letter noted, the U.S. government, along with 13 other countries, also had called for more inquiry into the origins in a March statement this year.

    “It is critical for independent experts to have full access to all pertinent human, animal, and environmental data, research, and personnel involved in the early stages of the outbreak relevant to determining how this pandemic emerged,” the statement said. “With all data in hand, the international community may independently assess COVID-19 origins, learn valuable lessons from this pandemic, and prevent future devastating consequences from outbreaks of disease.”

    The European Union made a similar statement. Both came in response to the release of a report by an international team convened by the World Health Organization. That report said a laboratory leak of a virus, involving “an accidental infection of staff,” was “an extremely unlikely pathway,” but the WHO director-general said that he didn’t believe the evaluation “was extensive enough.”

    “Although the team has concluded that a laboratory leak is the least likely hypothesis, this requires further investigation, potentially with additional missions involving specialist experts, which I am ready to deploy,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the day the report was publicly released on March 30. “Let me say clearly that as far as WHO is concerned all hypotheses remain on the table.”

    In a May 11 Senate hearing, Paul raised the issue of the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and said some in the government weren’t interested in investigating the lab-leak theory. The Kentucky senator said that “government authorities, self-interested in continuing gain-of-function research say there’s nothing to see here.” He went on to assert a tie between U.S. researchers and the Wuhan Institute of Virology and accused them of “juicing up super-viruses,” asking Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, if he still supported “the NIH funding of the lab in Wuhan.”

    Fauci responded that “the NIH has not ever and does not now fund gain-of-function research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”

    In a subsequent interview on “Fox & Friends” on May 13, Paul said he didn’t know whether SARS-CoV-2 came from a lab. “Nobody knows,” he said. But he posited that if it did, Fauci, among others, “could be culpable for the entire pandemic,” adding, “I’m not saying that happened. I don’t know.”

    Paul made the money-is-fungible argument, saying the NIH gave money to the lab, regardless of what that particular grant funded. But then asserted that NIH funding furthered risky gain-of-function research. The answer to the question of whether it did or didn’t depends on whom you ask and their definition of gain-of-function.

    Hours after his May 11 exchange with Paul, Fauci said at a fact-checking conference hosted by PolitiFact.com that it would “almost be irresponsible” to not collaborate with Chinese scientists given that the 2003 SARS outbreak originated in China. “So we really had to learn a lot more about the viruses that were there, about whether or not people were getting infected with bad viruses.”

    He called the EcoHealth collaboration “a very minor collaboration as part of a subcontract of a grant,” and said Paul conflated that with the claim that “therefore we were involved in creating the virus, which is the most ridiculous, majestic leap I’ve ever heard of.”

    Fauci said he wasn’t convinced that the coronavirus developed naturally. “I think that we should continue to investigate what went on in China until we find out to the best of our ability exactly what happened.”

    Fox News’ Tucker Carlson raised these issues on his show on May 11, saying: “The guy in charge of America’s response to COVID turns out to be the guy who funded the creation of COVID. We’re speaking of Tony Fauci and the gain-of-function experiments at the Wuhan laboratory that the U.S. government with his approval paid for.” There’s no evidence that the Wuhan laboratory, with or without funding from an NIH grant, created SARS-CoV-2.

    The night before, Carlson referred to a May 2 article on Medium by former New York Times science writer Nicholas Wade. In that piece, Wade wrote about “two main theories” of SARS-Co-V-2’s origin: “One is that it jumped naturally from wildlife to people. The other is that the virus was under study in a lab, from which it escaped.” Wade asserted that the “clues point in a specific direction” — a lab-leak. But he said at the outset: “It’s important to note that so far there is no direct evidence for either theory. Each depends on a set of reasonable conjectures but so far lacks proof.”


    Gain-of-Function


    Gain-of-function is a term that could describe any type of virology research that results in the gain of a certain function. But the type that’s controversial, including among scientists, is research that causes a pathogen to be more infectious, particularly to humans.

    In 2014, the U.S. government put a pause on new funding of gain-of-function research, which it defined this way: “With an ultimate goal of better understanding disease pathways, gain-of-function studies aim to increase the ability of infectious agents to cause disease by enhancing its pathogenicity or by increasing its transmissibility.” A 2016 paper on the ethics of gain-of-function research said: “The ultimate objective of such research is to better inform public health and preparedness efforts and/or development of medical countermeasures.”

    The pause — intended to provide time to address concerns about the risks and benefits of these studies — applied to certain research on influenza, MERS and SARS.

    “Specifically, the funding pause will apply to gain-of-function research projects that may be reasonably anticipated to confer attributes to influenza, MERS, or SARS viruses such that the virus would have enhanced pathogenicity and/or transmissibility in mammals via the respiratory route,” the White House said in an Oct. 17, 2014, announcement.

    As a Nature article at the time explained, there had been fierce debate among scientists on exactly what research should be deemed too risky. And some confusion on where the line would be drawn for this pause.

    “Viruses are always mutating,” the article said, “and [Arturo] Casadevall [then a microbiologist at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York City], says that it is difficult to determine how much mutation deliberately created by scientists might be ‘reasonably anticipated’ to make a virus more dangerous — the point at which the White House states research must stop.”

    In July 2014, a group of scientists and experts called the Cambridge Working Group issued a statement calling for such a pause of “[e]xperiments involving the creation of potential pandemic pathogens … until there has been a quantitative, objective and credible assessment of the risks, potential benefits, and opportunities for risk mitigation, as well as comparison against safer experimental approaches.”

    Well over 300 scientists have since signed on to the statement, which expressed concern about the risk of accidental infection in lab studies that created “highly transmissible, novel strains of dangerous viruses, especially but not limited to influenza.”

    The debate over this type of research dates back to at least 2011, when research was done on flu strains made to spread in ferrets.

    Paul cited the Cambridge Working Group in his May 11 and 13 remarks. But the group has not made “any statement … about work in Wuhan,” Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and one of the founder members of the group, said on Twitter.

    Lipsitch further said that some members of the working group “may categorically oppose all GOF studies that enhance virulence, transmission, or immune escape. My personal view is that some such studies can be justified on risk-benefit grounds, while those on flu to date cannot.”

    On Dec. 19, 2017, the U.S. government’s pause, or moratorium, was lifted. The Department of Health and Human Services announced a framework for evaluating whether funding should be granted for research involving “enhanced potential pandemic pathogens,” or PPPs. It said research on PPPs was “essential to protecting global health and security,” but the risks needed to be considered and mitigated.

    The framework defined a “potential pandemic pathogen” as one that was both “likely highly transmissible and likely capable of wide and uncontrollable spread in human populations” and “likely highly virulent and likely to cause significant morbidity and/or mortality in humans.” And an enhanced PPP was a PPP “resulting from the enhancement of the transmissibility and/or virulence of a pathogen.”

    The framework said enhanced PPPs don’t include “naturally occurring pathogens that are circulating in or have been recovered from nature.”


    EcoHealth Grant


    So, did the NIH’s grant to EcoHealth fund gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab? There are differing opinions on that. As noted above, whether research is “likely” or “reasonably anticipated” to enhance transmissibility can be subjective.

    EcoHealth and the NIH and NIAID say no. “EcoHealth Alliance has not nor does it plan to engage in gain-of-function research,” EcoHealth spokesman Robert Kessler told us in an email. Nor did the grant get an exception from the pause, as some have speculated, he said. “No dispensation was needed as no gain-of-function research was being conducted.”

    The NIAID told the Wall Street Journal: “The research by EcoHealth Alliance, Inc. that NIH funded was for a project that aimed to characterize at the molecular level the function of newly discovered bat spike proteins and naturally occurring pathogens. Molecular characterization examines functions of an organism at the molecular level, in this case a virus and a spike protein, without affecting the environment or development or physiological state of the organism. At no time did NIAID fund gain-of-function research to be conducted at WIV.”

    And in a May 19 statement, NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins said that “neither NIH nor NIAID have ever approved any grant that would have supported ‘gain-of-function’ research on coronaviruses that would have increased their transmissibility or lethality for humans.”

    Richard Ebright, a professor of chemistry and chemical biology at Rutgers University and a critic of gain-of-function research, told the Washington Post that the EcoHealth/Wuhan lab research “was — unequivocally — gain-of-function research.” He said it “met the definition for gain-of-function research of concern under the 2014 Pause.” That definition, as we said, pertained to “projects that may be reasonably anticipated to confer attributes to influenza, MERS, or SARS viruses such that the virus would have enhanced pathogenicity and/or transmissibility in mammals via the respiratory route.”

    Alina Chan, a molecular biologist and postdoctoral researcher at the Broad Institute of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard, said in a lengthy Twitter thread that the Wuhan subgrant wouldn’t fall under the gain-of-function moratorium because the definition didn’t include testing on naturally occurring viruses “unless the tests are reasonably anticipated to increase transmissibility and/or pathogenicity.” She said the moratorium had “no teeth.” But the EcoHealth/Wuhan grant “was testing naturally occurring SARS viruses, without a reasonable expectation that the tests would increase transmissibility or pathogenicity. Therefore, it is reasonable that they would have been excluded from the moratorium.”

    Chan, who has published research about the possibility of an accidental lab leak of the virus, also said: “But we need to separate this fight about whether a particular project is GOF vs whether it has risk of lab accident + causing an outbreak.”

    The University of Iowa’s Perlman told us the EcoHealth research is trying to see if these viruses can infect human cells and what about the spike protein on the virus determines that. (The spike protein is what the coronavirus uses to enter cells.) The NIH, he said, wouldn’t give money to anybody to do gain-of-function research “per se … especially in China,” and he didn’t think there was anything in the EcoHealth grant description that would be gain of function. But he said there’s a lot of nuance to this discussion.

    “This was not intentional gain of function,” Perlman said, adding that in this type of research “these viruses are almost always attenuated,” meaning weakened. The gain of function would be what comes out of the research “unintentionally,” but the initial goal of the project is what you would want to look at: can these viruses infect people, how likely would they be to mutate in order to do that, and “let’s get a catalog of these viruses out there.”

    Perlman also said that making a virus that could infect human cells in a lab doesn’t mean the virus is more infectious for humans. Viruses adapt to the cell culture, he said, and may grow well in a cell culture but then, for instance, not actually infect mice very well.

    Back in February, MIT biologist Kevin Esvelt told PolitiFact.com that a 2017 paper published with the help of the EcoHealth grant involved, as PolitiFact described it, “certain techniques that … seemed to meet the definition of gain-of-function research.” But Esvelt said “the work reported in this specific paper definitely did NOT lead to the creation of SARS-CoV-2,” because of differences between the virus studied and SARS-CoV-2.

    In the May 11 hearing, Paul also pointed to the work of Ralph S. Baric, a professor of epidemiology and a microbiologist who studies coronaviruses at the University of North Carolina. Paul described Baric’s research as “gain of function” in collaboration with the Wuhan lab. A 2015 paper by Baric, Shi and others, published with NIH funding in the journal Nature Medicine, examined the potential of SARS-like bat coronaviruses to lead to human disease. Researchers created a “chimeric virus” with the spike protein of the bat coronavirus and a mouse-adapted SARS backbone and found viruses could replicate in human airway cells. The study said “the creation of chimeric viruses … was not expected to increase pathogenicity.”

    Fauci told Paul at the hearing: “Dr. Baric does not do gain-of-function research, and if it is, it’s according to the guidelines and it is being conducted in North Carolina, not in China.”

    In a statement to us, Baric said: “Our work was approved by the NIH, was peer reviewed, and P3CO reviewed,” meaning reviewed under the HHS 2017 framework. “We followed all safety protocols, and our work was considered low risk because of the strain of coronaviruses being studied. It is because of our early work that the United States was in a position to quickly find the first successful treatment for SARS-CoV-2 and an effective COVID-19 vaccine.”

    Kelsey Cooper, Paul’s communications director, told us “there is ample evidence that the NIH and the NIAID, under his direction, funded gain of function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology,” citing Ebright’s statements. “In light of those facts, the question Dr. Paul asked was whether the government has fully investigated the origin of the disease, which it clearly has not. This research and the lab should be thoroughly investigated and opened to public scrutiny.”

    Perlman told us that he thought Fauci’s response in the May 11 exchange was correct — that no money was given for gain-of-function research. But, he added, there’s a scientific discussion to be had on the benefits and risks of research making recombinant viruses, which involves rearranging or combining genetic material. The politicization of the issue, Perlman said, “doesn’t do anybody good.”

  • Sheba Medical Center Publishes Breakthrough Infection Study Involving Pre-Delta Variants


    Sheba Medical Center Publishes Breakthrough Infection Study Involving Pre-Delta Variants
    Israel researchers recently had their COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection study findings reviewed and published in the New England Journal of Medicine
    trialsitenews.com


    Israel researchers recently had their COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection study findings reviewed and published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEMJ). While studying the Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) vaccine in a pool of health care workers, Israeli investigators discovered that breakthrough infections were occurring in this cohort before the advent of the Delta variant surge. Of 1,497 subjects, the authors recorded only 39 breakthrough infection cases, and most of those were either mild or asymptomatic. However, the study leaves many unanswered questions such as more granular data to better characterize the infections and greater insight to explain connections and causation of breakthrough and infectivity. TrialSite provides a brief overview of the study for quick, easy consumption. As always, we provide a link to the study as well.


    What was the study location (the trial site)?

    The Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan, which happens to be Israel’s largest medical center


    What ethics committee authorized the study?

    The institutional review board at Sheba Medical Center


    Did this study concurrently run up against the third-largest COVID-19 pandemic surge in this small eastern Mediterranean country?

    Yes. Reports of daily cases shot up to 8.424 by January 21.


    What’s the study context?

    First, from December 19, 2020, to April 28, 2021, Sheba Medical Center administered two doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine to 91% of its 12,586 health care workers, from employees to students and volunteers. Of note, immediately after that period, the study team identified a trend of diminishing numbers of new COVID-19 cases.


    However, in parallel, the study team sought to identify new cases via a myriad of study methods from “daily health questionnaires, a telephone hotline, extensive epidemiologic investigations of exposure events, and contract tracing of infected patients and personnel” as summarized in NEMJ.


    How did the team test fully-vaccinated employees who ended up becoming symptomatic or were exposed to a COVID-19 contact?

    As part of the study protocol, the team tested suspect breakthrough infections via reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay. Additionally, the study team initially also used antigen-detecting rapid diagnostic testing (Ag-RDT) in street-level retail clinics in combination with RT-PCR.


    What was the study goal?

    Identify every breakthrough infection, including asymptomatic infections that occurred during this study term among the health care workers.


    How did the study team define breakthrough infection?

    The study authors declared these were “defined as the detection of SARS-CoV-2 on RT-PCR assay performed 11 or more days after receipt of a second dose of BNT162b2 if no explicit exposure or symptoms has been reported during the first six days.”


    How was the study designed?

    Starting on January 20, 2021, the study commenced with a focus on vaccinated health care workers at Sheba Medical Center. The study team collected data for 14 weeks until April 28, 2021. The study team took all breakthrough infections among those inoculated and conducted what’s known as a “matched case-control analysis.”


    As part of the control analysis, the study team opted for control serum samples previously obtained via a prospective cohort study to investigate vaccine-induced immune response and related dynamics at the research center. They provide supporting study details in the “Supplementary Appendix.”


    Each time a breakthrough case surfaced, the study team matched samples secured from a handful of uninfected controls based on set variables such as sex, age, the interval between the second dose of BNT162b2 vaccine, serologic testing, and immunosuppression status.


    The researchers then analyzed neutralizing antibody titers secured a week before COVID-19 detection via RT-PCR testing, “including the day of diagnosis (peri-infection period); peak neutralizing antibody titers obtained during the initi8al postvaccination period; and S-specific IgG antibodies against the virus collected at both time points.” They excluded all breakthrough cases when they couldn’t access serologic samples.


    Results

    Sheba Medical Center could access the data for 1,497 health care workers that had accessible RT-PCR data and found 39 SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections. During the peri-infection period, the authors found that neutralizing antibody titers in the case patients recorded lower than those in matched uninfected controls (case-to-control ratio, 0.361; 95% confidence interval, 0.165 to 0.787). They reported that these with greater peri-infection neutralizing antibody titers linked to lower infectivity—and higher Ct values.


    Moreover, as summarized in NEJM, the majority of the breakthrough infections turned out to be mild or even asymptomatic, but they did highlight that 19% of the total (albeit a small overall total of cases) reported persistent symptoms in less than six weeks. Interestingly, this is mostly pre Delta, so most cases turned out to be the alpha (B.1.1.7) variant –85% of all samples tested. 74% of all case patients were analyzed with a high viral load, that is, a Ct value of <30 at some time during the infection. But only 17 of the patients, or 59%, were reported to have a positive result on concurrent Ag-RDT. And the investigators found no secondary infections to document.


    Conclusion

    A total of 39 breakthrough infections, mostly mild or asymptomatic, were identified out of 1,497 cases; however, this study was conducted between December 2020 and April 2021, meaning that the Delta surge hadn’t accelerated yet. Here, breakthrough infections are associated with neutralizing antibody titers during the peri-infection period.


    Lead Research/Investigator

    Dr. Regev-Yochay, Infection Control Prevention Unit, Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer, Ramat Gan, Israel, Corresponding Author


    Call to Action: Follow the link to the study. With the Delta surge now rampant, could the breakthrough infection rate be higher?

  • Call to Action: Follow the link to the study. With the Delta surge now rampant, could the breakthrough infection rate be higher?

    The US has been weird (publicly) in claiming the vaccine offers almost perfect protection against symptomatic delta infection, when in the UK we know it does not do that. It offers very good protection against severe symptomatic delta infection and death.


    It would be strange if the breakthrough rate were higher for delta than for alpha, since delta is better able to evade the vaccine.


    It is a testament to the efficacy of the mRNA vaccines that they still protect well enough on delta when formulated more than one year of virus evolution ago.


    But original ideas of maybe a vaccine will last two years don't look so likely now. We will see.

  • What is the Cape Cod Outbreak & its Connection to New CDC Mask Policy?


    What is the Cape Cod Outbreak & its Connection to New CDC Mask Policy?
    Recently, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) modified its masking policy yet again, now emphasizing that everyone must wear a mask
    trialsitenews.com


    Recently, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) modified its masking policy yet again, now emphasizing that everyone must wear a mask in risky indoor locations, even those who are fully vaccinated. This is a stark difference from the more rosy message they gave the country months ago when they gleefully announced that vaccinated individuals could take off their masks. What happened? Was it just the Delta variant or some other confluence of unfolding forces?


    What is the Provincetown Cluster?

    According to recent news sources, including ABC News, after the Fourth of July festivities at Provincetown, MA (in Cape Cod), 882 people were infected with COVID-19 and formed a hot spot breakthrough infections. 74% of these cases occurred fully inoculated—meaning they had received either two doses of Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech or the one jab of Johnson and Johnson. What’s worse, the overwhelming majority of these vaccinated individuals also reported symptoms. Seven of these individuals were hospitalized.


    Who conducted the investigations into the matter?

    The Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the CDC.


    What are the implications of these findings?

    First and foremost, before this incident, health officials assumed that breakthrough infections were rare events. Secondly, it was assumed that if an inoculated person did experience a breakthrough infection, they wouldn’t experience any symptoms. Third, the presumption was that vaccinated persons would not spread the virus to others—e.g., the vaccine cut transmissibility.


    Was this latter point the reason the CDC in May of 2021 changed its mask policy—that is, vaccinated people could lose their masks in public places (indoors or outdoors) even around unvaccinated persons?

    Yes. The underlying presumption behind that loosening of guidance was that the COVID-19 vaccines serve to halt transmission of SARS-CoV-2.


    What’s changed?

    According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to the White House, the virus has changed. The previous assumptions were all based on the original and earlier strains of SARS-CoV-2. Originally out of India, the Delta variant of concern is known for “hyper transmissibility,” as suggested recently in ABC News.


    What are the detailed implications for transmissibility—e.g., what’s happening now?

    What’s different about Delta—and is far more disturbing—is that the actual levels of the virus in a vaccinated person’s nasopharynx is approximately 1,000 times higher than the alpha variant type, reported Dr. Anthony Fauci to MSNBC during a recent interview.


    Is the Provincetown outbreak the only evidence the CDC has used as a basis for its new mask decision?

    No. While the Provincetown outbreak hot spot appears to represent a materially significant evidentiary cluster, there are other data points as well. For example, the CDC’s Director, Rochelle Walensky, shared in an interview with reporters that she was aware of other outbreak inquiries, suggesting the Delta variant behaves differently and is proving more dangerous than past strains.


    She declared to the correspondents, “Information on the delta variants from several states and other countries indicate that in rare occasions, some vaccinated people infected with a delta variant after vaccination may be contagious and spread the virus to others.” She concluded, “This new science is worrisome and unfortunately warrants an update to our recommendation.”


    Did the CDC release the additional evidentiary details?

    No, however, they said more data would be released today.


    What other pieces of scientific evidence is the CDC basing its decision on?

    The CDC Director cued that a recently completed, unpublished study demonstrates the “viral load,” that is, the volume of virus in an individual’s nasal passages—continues to remain high even among vaccinated individuals.


    Walensky then declared, “What we’ve learned…is that when we examine the rare or breakthrough infections, and we look at the amount of virus in those people, it is pretty similar to the amount of virus in unvaccinated people.”


    What’s the CDCs latest position?

    As reported in the New York Times, the CDC is now on the record via an internal report that the Delta variant is highly contagious, even as contagious as chickenpox. CDC scientists in this report raise a material concern about the implications of this for the pandemic—new data is planned for release Friday (today).


    Does this raise the specter that the CDC and other government agencies must change their communication strategy?

    Yes. With this new data in place, much of the existing vaccination communication premises would need modification to reflect a new reality.


    Is it true that House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy alleged that the recent CDC decision was problematic and based on un-reviewed Indian research? Is there any basis for this retort?

    Yes, if ABC News and others are correct. He apparently declared that the CDC decision was based unilaterally on an unpublished Indian study. This is incorrect as the CDC is looking at multiple data points.


    What are general estimates of how much more contagious the Delta variant is in Western research?

    As reported recently in the Wall Street Journal, the investigation into Delta is ongoing, so it’s an unfolding situation, and no conclusions made thus far. The UK has been most active in studying this variant, and scientists there suggest the pathogen is 40% to 80% more contagious than B.1.1.7, or the “Alpha” variant of interest first found in England.


    Additionally, Jared S. Hopkins and Robbie Whelan wrote for the Wall Street Journal that Imperial College London professor Wendy Barclay shared that swab tests suggest that the Delta variant includes a heavier viral load, meaning those infected exhale more pathogens for others to catch. This makes this variant generally more transmissible.


    In addition, the reporters shared with the reader that “The mutations also appear to make the variant more effective at attaching itself to cells in human airways. The combination means that an infected person is, other things being equal, likely to infect more people and that people require less exposure to become infected.”


    Again, the CDC is expected to share more data today, Friday, July 30.


    Are there other emerging studies evidencing Delta variant virulence threats?

    Yes, such as a study in mainland China, where the first local transmission of that variant was reported. This investigation found that the viral load of the first positive test case of the Delta infection was about 1000 times higher than the previous strains in that country.


    Do the vaccines still appear to be preventing most serious infections, even with Delta?

    Yes. But a key premise behind the mass vaccination program is that it’s not to be used as therapy but rather as a means to trigger herd immunity. This unfolding situation shakes up the assumptions behind this thinking, suggests TrialSite News.

  • What leads you into conviction, that Ivermectin/HCQ wasn't boycotted on the ground of the same motivation like cold fusion?

    Zephir - I'll answer that one.


    I have no political reason to like or dislike ivermectin or HCQ. I strongly think that science and medical advice should be separated from politics.


    In both cases the evidence is neutral - after a lot of RCTs. You can never say some combination of HCQ or ivermectin and otehr drugs, at some dosage, might not be useful. The RCT evidence is non-positive, and with that there is no more reason to experiment further with HCQ or ivermectin than with any of teh many other drugs. Given HCQ and ivermectin have both had more RCTs than anything else it seems sensible to give other drugs a turn. Even so, ivermectin is still being tested in good quality RCTs in progress, so if it helps we may still obtain definitive evidence.


    The pressure group (FLCC/BIRD) PR and many positive low quality studies are par for the course. They are understandable, and enough to motivate doing some decent RCTs. They are not enough to over-ride those RCTs since scientifically the evidence claimed does not wash. When even an FLCC-own meta-analysis cannot generate a positive result without including two clearly bad quality biased RCTs you know no-one can make a good case based on current evidence.


    A boycott would (obviously) mean doing fewer RCTs, not many more, than other drugs. Both ivermectin and HCQ have had lots of RCTs, and have at least two big (UK and US) ones still in process. That is not a boycott.


    The UK RCTs - I am 100% sure - are not designed to "boycott" HCQ or ivermectin. The sole motivation of people doing multi-arm randomized intervention studdies - which the UK has done superlatively well - is to find new drugs.


    Perhaps you would like to give your evidence for a boycott?

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