What we can learn from UK data? (weeks 33..36 vaccine report)

Facts:: 50..60% already had a CoV-19 infection. Today difficult to check vaccinated as the blood test just looks for Spike IG's.

UK facts about deaths. 75% of all CoV-19 death are from the vaccinated or the other way round:: Unvaccinated contribute only 25% of the death.

Why? Lets look at the group 80+. Here the claimed real infection --> death rate is 50.5/100'000 for vaccinated and 143.9 for unvaccinated. (Table 3 with correct absolute value) But this age 80+ unvaccinated group is tiny (about 2%) and so its contribution is low. --> >1300 deaths form vaccinated 80+ group.

This still looks like there is some protection from the vaccine among 80+. But if we assume a 60% infection rate then we have to divide 50.5 by 0.4 and we get 125.1. So effectively the vaccine protection is at best somewhere between 15..20% among age group 80+. Exactly what has been calculated for Israel too!

So there is a simple conclusion we can make. Further vaccination (UK) will not help much. It's a personal decision to buy some marginal protection. E.g. about 50% for age group 70..79. But still 50x for 40..50!

What could UK do? Allow proper treatment of CoV-19. Stop the vaccine mafia ruling.

CDC study says COVID-19 can spread in vaccinated

CDC study says COVID-19 can spread in vaccinated

Severe illness was more common among the unvaccinated. The hospitalization rate was almost 10 times higher for them compared with those who got the shots.

www.wsaz.com

NEW YORK — A new study of Texas prison inmates provides more evidence that coronavirus can spread even in groups where most people are vaccinated.

A COVID-19 outbreak at a federal prison in July and August infected 172 male inmates in two prison housing units, according to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report released Tuesday.

About 80% of the inmates in the units had been vaccinated. More than 90% of the unvaccinated inmates wound up being infected, as did 70% of the fully vaccinated prisoners.

Severe illness, however, was more common among the unvaccinated. The hospitalization rate was almost 10 times higher for them compared with those who got the shots.

It echoes research into a July outbreak in Provincetown, Massachusetts, where several hundred people were infected -- about three-quarters of whom were fully vaccinated.

Such reports have prompted a renewed push by health officials for even vaccinated people to wear masks and take other precautions. They believe the delta variant, a version of coronavirus that spreads more easily, and possibly waning immunity may be playing a role.

The authors did not identify the prison, but media reports in July detailed a similar-sized outbreak at the federal prison in Texarkana.

Is The Worst Over? Modelers Predict A Steady Decline In COVID Cases Through March

NPR Cookie Consent and Choices

Americans may be able to breathe a tentative sigh of relief soon, according to researchers studying the trajectory of the pandemic.

The delta surge appears to be peaking nationally, and cases and deaths will likely decline steadily now through the spring without a significant winter surge, according to a new analysis shared with NPR by a consortium of researchers advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

For its latest update, which it will release Wednesday, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub combined nine different mathematical models from different research groups to get an outlook for the pandemic for the next six months.

"Any of us who have been following this closely, given what happened with delta, are going to be really cautious about too much optimism," says Justin Lessler at the University of North Carolina, who helps run the hub. "But I do think that the trajectory is towards improvement for most of the country," he says.

The modelers developed four potential scenarios, taking into account whether or not childhood vaccinations take off and whether a more infectious new variant should emerge.

The most likely scenario, says Lessler, is that children do get vaccinated and no super-spreading variant emerges. In that case, the combo model forecasts that new infections would slowly, but fairly continuously, drop from about 140,000 today now, to about 9,000 a day by March.

Deaths from COVID-19 would fall from about 1,500 a day now to fewer than 100 a day by March 2022.

That's around the level U.S. cases and deaths were in late March 2020 when the pandemic just started to flare up in the U.S. and better than things looked early this summer when many thought the pandemic was waning.

And this scenario projects that there will be no winter surge, though Lessler cautions that there is uncertainty in the models, and a "moderate" surge is still theoretically possible.

There's wide range of uncertainty in the models, he notes, and it's plausible, though very unlikely, that cases could continue to rise to as many as 232,000 per day before starting to decline.

"We have to be cautious because the virus has shown us time and time again that new variants or people loosening up on how careful they're being can lead things to come roaring back," Lessler warns.

William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health, notes there is a fair amount of uncertainty in the models. "I would be concerned about interpreting these in an overly optimistic fashion for the country as a whole," he says.

He agrees that overall the pandemic will be "comparatively under control by March," but says, "there could be a number of bumps in the road."

Last winter, the worst surge of the pandemic in the U.S. hit midwinter when weather was cold and more people spent time indoors. "If you look at the seasonal dynamics of coronaviruses, they usually peak in early January. And in fact, last year we saw a peak like that with SARS-CoV-2," he says.

Both Hanage and Lessler note that there will be regional variation, with some states continuing to surge for possibly a few weeks. Essentially, things could still get worse in some places before the get better.

Lessler says he is especially worried about Pennsylvania, for example, and he notes that in some Western states like Idaho and Utah, there's a risk of resurgence. Hanage notes that places with cold winter weather may be susceptible to some increase in cases later in the year.

And hospitals are going to continue to get flooded with patients for a while before infections taper off, and many are already being pushed past the breaking point.

Another caveat: This scenario assumes that the U.S. doesn't get hit with a new variant that's even more contagious than delta. If it does, a bleaker scenario from the Modeling Hub projects far worse numbers: just below 50,000 cases a day by next March. But Lessler emphasizes this is very hypothetical.

He's hopeful that the most optimistic scenario is the most likely.

"I think a lot of people have been tending to think that with this surge, it just is never going to get better. And so maybe I just need to stop worrying about it and take risks. But I think these projections show us there is a light at the end of the tunnel," he says.

Lessler thinks that at this point there's enough immunity in this country from a combination of enough people getting vaccinated and enough people having been exposed to the virus.

"The biggest driver is immunity," he explains. "We've seen really big delta waves. The virus has eaten up the susceptible people. So there are less people out there to infect." The virus is still fighting to back, he says, but "immunity always wins out eventually."

But transmission is still very high and will remain so for a while, so precautions are still called for until new infections come down to moderate levels.

Natalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at Emory University, notes that even though we may see a decline this fall, we will still see "a lot of cases and deaths."

Getting everyone eligible vaccinated is still key to preventing further deaths. Even in this optimistic scenario, the U.S. is projected to reach a cumulative total of over 780,000 deaths by March.

Modeling is an imprecise science but the Modeling Hub brings together many of the the top disease modelers around the country, doing their best to look far down the road and make sense of a very unpredictable, complicated pandemic that's thrown one curve ball after another.

"I hope it's true, obviously, but I can't shake a little unease I have about about what could be coming," says Dean.

So like many Americans, Dean is keeping her fingers crossed.

Quote from Wyttenbach

What we can learn from UK data? (weeks 33..36 vaccine report)

...

UK facts about deaths. 75% of all CoV-19 death are from the vaccinated or the other way round:: Unvaccinated contribute only 25% of the death.

...

I have a hard time to follow your statements when you always cite the UK data (see posts above)... who is then wrong: UK data or you? The graph tells me that there are roughly 25% vaccinated (black) vs 75% unvaccinated (gray) who died, or do I miss something?

Covid: Immune therapy from llamas shows promise

An immune therapy derived from llama blood shows 'exciting potential' in early coronavirus trials.

www.bbc.co.uk

Definitely early-phase - one of the many attempts to get good COVID therapy from antibodies. Good that it shows potent anti-COVID action.

On the positive side anti-vaxers maybe think llamas are cuddly so won't go after this as much as they do with other mAbs therapies.

THH

WHO reiterates warning against Covid boosters for healthy people as U.S. weighs wide distribution of third shots

WHO reiterates warning against Covid boosters for healthy people as U.S. weighs wide distribution of third shots

The U.S. has already administered over 2 million Covid booster shots nationwide, according to the CDC.

www.cnbc.com

KEY POINTS

The WHO strongly opposes the widespread rollout of booster shots, asking that wealthier nations instead give extra doses to countries with minimal vaccination rates.

The U.S. has already administered over 2 million boosters nationwide, according to the CDC.

An advisory panel to the FDA unanimously recommended boosters on Friday for anyone 65 and older.

World Health Organization officials repeated their protests Tuesday against Covid-19 booster shots for the general public, even as the U.S. readies this week to authorize their distribution across a wide swath of America.

The WHO strongly opposes the widespread rollout of booster shots, asking that wealthier nations instead give extra doses to countries with minimal vaccination rates. The U.S. has already administered over 2 million third doses nationwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and an advisory panel to the Food and Drug Administration unanimously recommended boosters on Friday for anyone 65 and older.

What WHO is arguing is that booster doses in the general population, who had wide access to vaccines, who have already been vaccinated, is not the best bet right now," Dr. Mike Ryan, director of the WHO's health emergencies program, said during a live Q&A aired Tuesday on the organization's social media channels.

Ryan reiterated the WHO's support for third doses administered to the elderly, medically vulnerable people and anyone needing an immune system boost after a full Covid vaccine regimen. He reiterated the organization's calls for a moratorium on booster shots through the end of the year to give nations enough time to immunize at least 40% of their populations against Covid.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Sept. 14 that most countries with under 2% vaccination coverage are in Africa, where less than 3.5% of the continent's eligible population is fully inoculated against Covid. Africa will likely miss the WHO's target of a 10% vaccination rate by the end of the year, Tedros added.

But in the U.S., where almost 55% of the population is fully vaccinated, according to the CDC, the FDA is expected to issue formal guidance on Pfizer's boosters before the CDC holds its two-day meeting on the shots on Wednesday and Thursday.

An FDA advisory committee rejected a proposal Friday to recommend boosters for all Americans over 16, citing concerns about insufficient data and the potential for myocarditis. The group, instead, narrowed that plan, endorsing third doses for people 65 and over and other medically vulnerable people.

World leaders further discussed the global vaccination effort at a meeting Tuesday of the United Nations General Assembly. President Joe Biden will hold a Covid summit Wednesday to encourage international dignitaries to help improve global vaccine distribution, noting in a speech to the General Assembly that the U.S. had donated more than 160 million Covid vaccine doses to the cause.

"It's a real moment of truth," Ryan said. "We, as a world, are getting another chance, chances we haven't taken before, to focus on vaccine equity."

Imperial College of London Researcher Suggests Investigation into COVID-19 Vaccine Impact on Menstrual Cycle

Imperial College of London Researcher Suggests Investigation into COVID-19 Vaccine Impact on Menstrual Cycle

Recently The BMJ published an opinion piece from Dr. Victoria Male,  an esteemed faculty member from the Imperial College of London specializing in

trialsitenews.com

Recently The BMJ published an opinion piece from Dr. Victoria Male, an esteemed faculty member from the Imperial College of London specializing in medicine with an emphasis on metabolism, digestion, and reproduction. Dr. Male communicates to that journal’s influential readers that recently while the UK’’s drug regulator—the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA)—listed side effects associated with the COVID-19 vaccines such as “sore arm, fever, fatigue, and myalgia” they presently exclude growing reports of “changes to periods and unexpected vaginal bleeding.” Importantly Dr. Male introduces that general practitioners increasingly hear about complaints from post-jab patients about these menstrual-related side effects; the regulators in the UK are not yet responding. They should—given that over 30,000 of these incidents have been reported in the UK alone. Occurring directly after vaccination, Male did some digging into the UK’s “yellow card surveillance scheme for adverse drug reaction” as of September 2, 2021. While she emphasizes that these incidents are still rare (considering how many vaccines have been administered), she nonetheless believes it’s important to address this topic via more research to help overcome vaccine hesitancy among young women.

While this news undoubtedly raises an alarm, thankfully, Male reports that the menstrual instability “…returns to normal the following cycle.” Moreover, the Imperial College of London lecturer emphasized, “…there is no evidence that COVID-19 vaccination adversely affects fertility.” She reminds all that no apparent impact on fertility was observed during Phase 3 clinical trials investigating the COVID-19 vaccines.

Probably an Immune Response

The Imperial College of London author emphasizes that these menstrual cycle impact findings occur despite vaccine product—whether it’s mRNA-based or adenovirus vectored vaccines. This indicates not a specific vaccine product but rather “…likely…a result of the immune response to vaccination rather than a specific vaccine component.”

For example, Dr. Make informs the reader that the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine also has triggered similar reports of side effects. She emphasizes that “…immunological influences on the hormones driving the menstrual cycle” or, for that matter, “effects mediated by immune cells in the lining of the uterus” represents a “biologically plausible mechanism.”

Further Study Needed

Dr. Male reminds all readers of The BMJ that the yellow card scheme in the UK cannot be used to determine causal relationship—such as “a link between changes to menstrual periods and COVID-19 vaccine” because already the number is low and the commonplace natural of menstrual disorders. She does emphasize the need for investigation into the topic, however declaring that the National Institutes of Health recently allocated $1.67 million to encourage such research. Thus Dr. Male suggests that clinical research be employed to investigate any links between the coronavirus and changes to menstrual cycles. She concludes, “Robust research into these possible adverse reactions remains critical to the overall success of the vaccination program” given young women’s persistent vaccine hesitancy, largely caused by “false claims that COVID-19 vaccines could harm their chances of pregnancy.”

Lead Research/Investigator

Dr. Victoria Male, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Metabolism, Digestion, and Reproduction

Home - Dr Victoria Male

Quote from zorud

I have a hard time to follow your statements when you always cite the UK data (see posts above)... who is then wrong: UK data or you? The graph tells me that there are roughly 25% vaccinated (black) vs 75% unvaccinated (gray) who died, or do I miss something?

You make the same error as others. You look at the rate graph! I look at absolute data. Further the rate graph overestimates the vaccine protection by a factor of 2..2.5 as it also includes people that had a natural infection into the vaccinated bar.

The real people at risk are unvaccinated with no infection!!

Quote from THHuxleynew

On the positive side anti-vaxers maybe think llamas are cuddly so won't go after this as much as they do with other mAbs therapies.

Antivaxxers love mAbs! In amounts inversely proportional to their oxygen levels.

They love them so much so that the US government had to limit the sending of its Regeneron supplies to the, um, incest belt, in order that the rest of America can also benefit from them.

Whilst normal places set up vaccination tents in their hospital carparks, Florida set up Regeneron tents where people queue for hours.

Sure, they need to disregard the fact that Regeneron has had no long-term safety tests, only has the infamous Emergency Use Authorisation beloved of facebook morons everywhere, contains polysorbate 80 - an ingredient that anti-vaxxers claim “attacks the ovaries”, and is manufactured using an unholy brew of mouse parts, cancerous cells and aborted fetal cells, and also rakes in $1000 per dose for evil big pharma companies.

…So I can see why you might think otherwise.

Quote from Wyttenbach

You make the same error as others. You look at the rate graph! I look at absolute data.

Everyone (but you) looks at the rate graph, because everyone (but you) understands that if 100% of people were vaccinated, then 100% of covid deaths would be of vaccinated people - making the absolute statistics increasingly meaningless as vaccine rollout progresses.

This isn’t hard to understand.

Why can’t you understand this, when nearly everyone else can? Are you more stupid than everyone else?

Quote from Fm1

Dr. Victoria Male, an esteemed faculty member from the Imperial College of London specializing in medicine with an emphasis on metabolism, digestion, and reproduction

Vicky Male can do without TSN adding spin to her work:

Are COVID-19 vaccines safe in pregnancy?

Victoria Male

Nature Reviews Immunology

In December 2020, a blog post appeared online claiming, falsely, that a senior employee at Pfizer was concerned that antibodies elicited by COVID-19 vaccines could attack the placenta. The post was quickly removed but the rumours that it started continue to spread and a survey carried out by ‘Find Out Now’ found that more than a quarter of young women in the United Kingdom would decline the vaccine, citing concerns about its effect on fertility. This is not the first time that unfounded rumours about vaccines causing infertility have circulated. In 2003, such concerns resulted in a boycott of polio vaccination in northern Nigeria; more recently, they have contributed to hesitance in accepting the human papillomavirus vaccine. It is understandable that people are apprehensive, especially about a new vaccine: the vast majority of adverse events can be ruled out in clinical trials, but the short time frame during which these take place, especially for COVID-19, means that events that could potentially occur decades into the future are harder to discount. Indeed, many people are hesitant specifically about receiving an mRNA vaccine, as this is a relatively new platform. With respect to these concerns, it is worth noting that the first human trials of mRNA vaccines began in 2006, so there have been 15 years during which any long-term problems arising from the platform itself could have come to light¹.

Although many of the rumours that COVID-19 vaccines might damage fertility centre specifically on the mRNA platform, probably because they first emerged in the context of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, the specific claim is that antibodies recognizing the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein can cross-react with the human placental protein syncytin 1 and thereby damage the placenta. If such cross-reactivity did occur, vaccines on all platforms, as well as natural infections, would be expected to be associated with placental pathology. A natural experiment assures us that this is unlikely to be the case as people who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 shortly before conceiving or early in pregnancy are no more likely to miscarry than their uninfected peers². Nonetheless, immunologists have also taken formal approaches to address the claim that antibodies to spike protein could cross-react with syncytin 1: there is no significant similarity between the amino acid sequences of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and syncytin 1 and convalescent serum from patients with COVID-19 does not react with syncytin 1 (ref.³).

But the data that speak most clearly to the question of whether the COVID-19 vaccines harm fertility come from the clinical trials themselves^4,5,6. Developmental and reproductive toxicity studies show that the vaccines do not prevent female rodents becoming pregnant or harm the pups if given during pregnancy. We also have an idea of how the vaccines affect pregnancy in humans from the volunteers who became pregnant during the clinical trials. Pregnant people were excluded from the trials and participants were asked to avoid becoming pregnant, but, nonetheless, 57 pregnancies occurred across the trials of the three vaccines that have so far been approved in the UK. The outcomes of these pregnancies, so far as they have progressed, are summarized in Table 1. There was no significant difference in the rate of accidental pregnancies in the vaccinated groups compared with the control groups, which indicates that the vaccines do not prevent pregnancy in humans. Similarly, the miscarriage rates are comparable between the groups, indicating no detrimental effect of vaccination on early pregnancy.

Graph, poles, voting, we see are same people setting up the us elections

DR Kory keeps Battling.

Quote from THHuxleynew

But the data that speak most clearly to the question of whether the COVID-19 vaccines harm fertility come from the clinical trials themselves4,5,6. Developmental and reproductive toxicity studies show that the vaccines do not prevent female rodents becoming pregnant or harm the pups if given during pregnancy.

I hope that you are aware that you just re-link Pfizer claimed FUD. There have been no clinical trials at all at the time CDC/FDA issued their referenced statement.

Why are some children here not able to extract mortality from a rate graph??

Children just read facebook posts and if they like it they re-post it. Children like statements as 99.5% of all US deaths are among unvaccinated.

That's why we here have a proverb that says: Children fools believe everything.

Important is to understand why and how the cheating works. Up to 2021 all people died from the virus as no vaccine has been available. USA had about 550'000 deaths in 2020 so with this figure alone you already get about 80% dying from the virus...

The true figures are way more complex and once you see it, you won't like them.

Israel explained it, newest UK data shows it too. People age class 80+ with no prior CoV-19 infection no (after 6 months avg.) have almost no protection from the vaccine. This is for the Pfizer and Oxford mono RNA crap vaccines.

Moderna so far with two RNA vectors performs factors better.

Any sincere regulator would take these two crap "vaccines" off market. But as we live in a fascist world, where people enjoy to kill people by providing fake CoV-19 treatment for $$$$$$$$$$ this will not happen.

Quote from Wyttenbach

I hope that you are aware that you just re-link Pfizer claimed FUD. There have been no clinical trials at all at the time CDC/FDA issued their referenced statement.

The review paper that this is part of was this year: from Vicky Male whom TSN call an esteemed researcher. I thought given that esteem we (you) should read her review, in its entirety, and not the TSN propaganda.

If you think her review is FUD I can't stop you from saying that, but I disagree. I suggest you read the context.

Quote from Wyttenbach

The true figures are way more complex and once you see it, you won't like them.

Israel explained it, newest UK data shows it too. People age class 80+ with no prior CoV-19 infection no (after 6 months avg.) have almost no protection from the vaccine.

I'm happy to discuss the Uk data with you, since I know it well. You have not yet replied to my note about a 2X correction upwards in the unvaccinated rates from the published PHE data. Till you do this - it is very well attested as I inked - I don't think we can have a meaningful discussion about other bits of it., because the same error will affect all age ranges (but with a different correction factor).

I'm also happy to discuss the Israeli data but only if you link what you reply upon so i can detect your many mistakes.

Quote from Seatrout

Graph, poles, voting, we see are same people setting up the us elections

No idea what that means - but my conspiracy-theory detector fires when people start talking about elections being set up in any free democratic country. It is usually an excuse for losing. the US is lots of not nice things, but undoubtedly still free and democratic (since the Trump-inspired coup failed).

Quote from THHuxleynew

Whether you measure by rate per person, or overall numbers, this is a very large difference. I'd expect the vaccine to reduce deaths but not by more than a factor of 10-20. And more people in US are vaccinated than not?

About half of the adult population is vaccinated, so the rate per person and the proportion of overall numbers are about even. The base rate fallacy does not occur.

To be more exact: for all ages, 64% have had one dose, 55% are fully vaccinated. Until recently it was close to 50%.

See How Vaccinations Are Going in Your County and State

See where doses have gone, and who is eligible for a shot in each state.

www.nytimes.com

That is for the entire population, but the actual numbers vary a great deal from one state to another, from one group to another, and by political party. The unvaccinated are mainly Republicans living in rural areas. They infect one another more often than they infect urban Democrats. They are in much more danger of being infected even when they are vaccinated. That increases the number of hospitalized and dead unvaccinated people. In Georgia, where the two groups are widely separated, I think 98% of the dead are unvaccinated. Suppose the population was 50% vaccinated and it was evenly mixed in all districts. The risk would be spread out more evenly. I think in that scenario more vaccinated people would be infected and something like 93% to 95% of the dead would be unvaccinated, instead of 98%. That's just my own rough estimate. Anyway, it would be higher.

To summarize, a vaccinated person living in proximity to mostly other vaccinated people is safer than someone living among unvaccinated people. This trend is even more pronounced because vaccinated urban Democrats in Atlanta all wear masks. The stores demand it. Whereas unvaccinated rural Republicans seldom wear masks. Numerous photos of stores and gatherings in the local newspapers bear this out.

Just checked in here and the Town Criers are active. I'm not sure how you do it Wyttenbach.

Good find on the "pandemic of the unvaccinated" data from the UK. LOL. How can anyone support this trash thinking. Just burn your high school diploma because you didn't pass Grade 7. Even at age 40-49 we have 75 deaths UnV vs 39 V.

What needs to be done is clear. Admit they don't work as advertised, make them optional (no passports!), and allow early treatments!

The V may need to be boosted and suffer an entire round of vax injuries over and over. Not a good idea.

The UnV allowed early treatment in a coordinated fashion won't suffer the inflammatory condition (which very few are susceptible to). The real cause of Covid19 isn't even spoken of, that's how you know this isn't science - its about antibody titers lol!

If someone spent billions on messaging people to eat right and get healthy just think where we might be?

We could offer better paying jobs for social media marketers. Q: Do people working in low levels of the usual cults (F/R/J) get paid for social media influence, or is it a rite or sacrament to deceived other people not in the cult?

None of this is about science. It is the same shenanigans that leads to $10T wars. I'm sure many of the Towne Criers were arguing about how terrorism was the great threat, and anyone who doesn't believe it is a "conspiracy theorist" blah blah blah