Covid-19 News

    I think the Worldmeters data was momentarily wrong, or I misread it. I thought today's new cases were 3 times yesterdays. The correct numbers are --


    Today's total as of 4:30 p.m.: 8,149


    Yesterday: 4,824


    That's a factor of 1.69 not ~3.00


    Today's numbers are still increasing. I have noticed that some days they decrease as they are moved to the "yesterday" category. Someone is making corrections to the source data, I suppose.


    The data for Italy and France appears only once a day. Some other countries change hour by hour.

    • Official Post

    https://www.scientificamerican…-to-the-new-coronavirus1/


    BEIJING—The mysterious patient samples arrived at Wuhan Institute of Virology at 7 P.M. on December 30, 2019. Moments later, Shi Zhengli’s cell phone rang. It was her boss, the institute’s director. The Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention had detected a novel coronavirus in two hospital patients with atypical pneumonia, and it wanted Shi’s renowned laboratory to investigate. If the finding was confirmed, the new pathogen could pose a serious public health threat—because it belonged to the same family of bat-borne viruses as the one that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a disease that plagued 8,100 people and killed nearly 800 of them between 2002 and 2003. “Drop whatever you are doing and deal with it now,” she recalls the director saying.

    Shi—a virologist who is often called China’s “bat woman” by her colleagues because of her virus-hunting expeditions in bat caves over the past 16 years—walked out of the conference she was attending in Shanghai and hopped on the next train back to Wuhan.

    These could be one-day glitches, but it seems the new case numbers from Italy and Spain are down today, and Germany is stable. I think these are the final numbers. They are (today and yesterday):


    Italy 5560, 6557

    Spain 3107, 3925

    Germany 2488, 2516


    Not shooting up exponentially is good news. Even having ~2500 infections per day is good news when it is not dramatically increasing.


    You can see there was a spike in Germany on March 20, but from March 18 the other recent days are a ray of hope. See:


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/


    (This does not include today's total.)




    Yup. This is final total for Germany and Spain. Worldmeters says:

    March 22 (GMT)

    • 2488 new cases and 10 new deaths in Germany. German Chancellor Angela Merkel in quarantine at home after a doctor who gave her prophylactic vaccinations on Friday has tested positive for the coronavirus
    Quote from artefact

    Today there was a message to doctors in at least parts of Germany that from tomorrow on only bad cases should be tested to save resources from tomorrow on. The new cases will look more declining than they are here.


    It feels like something similar is happening in parts of the U.S. Perhaps this is out of necessity and testing capacity. The problem as I see it with this is that people have a high viral load right after they are infected, but they still feel still fine. So it’s a combination of being very contagious and asymptomatic.


    How do you get in front of this if people aren’t being tested until they need hospitalization? People need to be tested and isolated much earlier in the process or they will just keep infecting more people.


    The whole process of epidemiology and contagion seems very complicated to me. The simple way to calculate the spread is with a multiple, which has been 1.3. But just think, if that multiple continues we will have over 50k new cases per day here in the U.S. a week from today. I sure hope that isn’t the case.

    over simplified estimate of CFR just using the total cases / total cases (no corrections for delays, etc)


    I get US about 1.3% Italy 9%, Spain 6%, France 4%, UK 5%, and using the total world numbers 4%


    I was watching the news and the NY governor said he expects 40 to 80% of the people will eventually get it.


    now with a US population about 330 million, that would be 165M cases at 50% of the population , and if a 1%

    death rate, that would be 1.6M.


    I must be off. But I don't have any other firm numbers.


    Perhaps we would run out of the people with underlying conditions and the 1% will drop or

    perhaps we will be lucky and a new treatment program will reduce that number.

    But still it doesn't look good.


    Someone out there please correct my estimate. I don't like it.

    • Official Post
    Quote from oldguy

    Someone out there please correct my estimate. I don't like it.

    think of it as a worst case. My city health officer gave an estimate of 4000 infected while we only have 21 confirmed. All that drives mortality rate down. I don't think we have a casualty yet


    It Italy and Spain continue on downward slope ( next 2-3 days will show) it can be a 2 week thing thanks to strict isolation.

    • Official Post
    Quote from Deleo

    People need to be tested and isolated much earlier in the process or they will just keep infecting more people.


    I am sure they have good reasons for limiting testing to those showing up at the ER sick...if that is what they are doing. I do believe that is the case however, as I have read similar stories.


    With the virus spread throughout the country, and world now, what would be the point (of testing everyone) anyway? Suppose the US was testing everyone. There would be thousands, and soon tens, then hundreds of thousands of positives, and many false positives. Do we have the manpower then to track down every person those positives came in contact with? I doubt it.


    That was much more doable to accomplish in the concentrated area of Wuhan, and the South Korean church in the early days. Maybe it is no longer practical on such a vast scale....population 330 million. Maybe it would work in the COVID hotspots such as NYC, Miami area, etc. but for the rest of the country, we are just too spread out IMO.

    That leaves the only viable option left, which is to hope like hell the citizens are very careful they avoid infection. And if they think they may be infected (and I have a friend who thinks he is) self isolate.


    You do not seem to think that will work effectively "they will just keep infecting more people", but from what I have seen in my area, people have been pretty good. More so than I would have ever thought months ago before this all started. Americans have it ingrained in them to resist restrictions. To their credit, they are for the most part obeying the rules; staying distant, sanitizing hands, etc.

    Many of my neighbors have quarantined themselves out of fear. They stand in their doorway, and from far away we BS. Those that do feel like they are coming down with something (very bad flu year also), seem to be staying inside. I have not seen anyone in the stores sneezing, or acting sick. If they did, I am sure they would be treated like a rabid dog.

    • Official Post

    I do see that this past Friday (Mar 20) the US officially limited testing to those who show symptoms:


    The more recent cause of limited testing is an explicit White House decision. Thus on Friday March 20, the White House announced a policy of only testing people with symptoms and deliberately ignoring the significant number of people who are infected but not yet symptomatic even though they are continuing to transmit the disease.

    Vice President Mike Pence explained on March 21 that the sole focus on people with Covid-19 symptoms is because “we are preserving the resources that our healthcare workers need to minister and to support those who are dealing with the coronavirus and other illnesses.” In other words, the equipment needed for the current tests is needed more urgently for treatment of the sick. That decision may well be justified, given where we are, but it destroys the possibility of a strategy of “test and isolate"





    • Official Post

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/m…-or-outlier/#2c3b062b5b84


    Very good, up to date article. Now Chlotoquine/Z-pack is the treatment of choice for some hospitals, while in others, the patient, or their family has to ask for it. I predict that soon it will be the "standard of care" for all COVID patients. Problem at the moment, is that Chloroquine is in 'tight supply", although the derivative Hydrochloroquine is plentiful.


    This is a rapidly developing story that only seems to pick up more steam every day.

    Quote

    Very good, up to date article. Now Chlotoquine/Z-pack is the treatment of choice for some hospitals, while in others, the patient, or their family has to ask for it. I predict that soon it will be the "standard of care" for all COVID patients. Problem at the moment, is that Chloroquine is in 'tight supply", although the derivative Hydrochloroquine is plentiful

    Hydroxychloroquine, not chloroquine, was the subject of the Raoult/Marseilles study. I don't know how plentiful it is. I ordered some from India a couple of days ago and it is not yet shipped. I ordered from Schein medical supply in the US and the first order was declined. My second order. earlier today, was accepted but limited to two bottles of 100 tabs each. Azithromycin is limited to two bottles of 30 tablets (250 mg) each. Delivery is estimated at 5 days but we will see. Last second cancellations can happen with this company. I don't know what "hydrochloroquine" is. You probably meant hydroxychloroquine?


    I can't emphasize too much that there is no good study yet. The original is tantalizing, a wonderful start, but vastly insufficient. Hopefully, a lot of capable people have picked up on it and will use larger groups, double blind controls, randomization, and patient matching. Then, we will know for sure if, when and how to use these drugs.


    I agree with Shane D. that the Forbes article is very clear and accurate.

    • Official Post
    Quote from seven_of_twenty

    Hydroxychloroquine, not chloroquine, was the subject of the Raoult/Marseilles study. I don't know how plentiful it is


    Thanks for straightening that out. This is what the article had to say about supplies in stock:


    "Asked about supplies, a spokesperson for CVS Health, T.J. Crawford, said the drug-store chain has an “adequate supply on-hand” of hydroxychloroquine but supply of a related drug, chloroquine, “is tight across the marketplace.”"


    So the good stuff....Hydroxychloroquine, is in "adequate supply".

    • Official Post

    Email today from Carbanio in India, who sell chemicals including drug precursors...


    Dear Alan Smith


    Government of India has decided to lock down 75 major cities across India. Carbanio's suppliers are forced to close their business due to this decision till 31st March 2020. As soon as the supply is resumed, we will start delivering the Chemicals.

    Please expect a delay during this critical situation. In case of any assistance, please reach out to us via [email protected]


    Regards Team Carbanio

    • Official Post
    Quote from Max Nozin

    think of it as a worst case. My city health officer gave an estimate of 4000 infected while we only have 21 confirmed. All that drives mortality rate down. I don't think we have a casualty yet


    It Italy and Spain continue on downward slope ( next 2-3 days will show) it can be a 2 week thing thanks to strict isolation.

    A quick estimate of infected from the death, is multiply by 3000 the death...

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    Why ? 0.5 to 1% die as long as there are respirators, and it takes 20 days from infection to death for that unlucky 1%. and it is doubling every 5 days (numbers uncertain...)...

    In france I estimate that when we declared the lockdown, 1% of the population was infected... the error is log normal (says, 10% or 0.1% dunno).


    Beware abour D Raoult paper, it is one of the worst on earth (we have seen worst in LENR), even if you are acknowledging that under death risk studies have to be fast.

    4 patient were ejected from the trial, one for death, one for cure, two for side effects... Efficiency is not proven even for the openmind. Anyway it have to be tested, and I'm optimistic because of other studies... Taking risk is less risky than taking precaution.

    It's complicated. Please no self medication, don't hoard plaquenil as some do. The interns emptied Paris hospital pharmacy with fake prescription..


    This disease is no death sentence, just a high risk. wash you hands, the packets from outside...


    I stard to understand the key reason this stupid banal virus is deadly...

    Coronaviruses are very common, can kill, but not often...

    Virus most of the time are adapted either to the upper respiratory domain of humans, or to the lowers.

    If colonizng upper parts, its is very contagious, but not so dangerous. Mostly bacterial infections kills with pneumonias.

    If colonizing the lower par of lungs, it is causing deadly pneumonia, but is not very contagious.


    Sars-Cov-2 is an innovation that is adapted tu upper and lower part of the respiratory system. It is contagious and deadly.


    The reason as I've understood lie in it's infections mechanisme.

    The virus is a sort of capsule with 8kb of ARN program that ask the cell to produce virus.

    The capsule is internalised asfter contacting recepto on the surface, especially some camed ACE2 (check, not sure), that are in high quantity for smokers... Blood A-group people are more subject too...

    Nb: Chloroquine is targeting that phenomenon by making the vacuoles more acidic...

    Once inside the capsule is opened by a protein, that make it specific to few cells, to a species. The innovation of Sars-cov-2 is that it is opened by a very common protein in human cells (is it "furine"?), thus it is infecting highet and lower part of respiratory system...


    This mean that the virus is very well adapted to humans.

    Question is if ther will be lasting immunity on the long term...


    Stay at home



    I don't translate, it is enough clear I imagine.

    @sot ....the company I obtained chloroquine from was 24.7 globalmed.com which has a webpage with 'Trustpharmacy' titled on making an order. Hence my confusion. Despite making a second order for hydroxychloroquine which I paid extra for special delivery by EMS since air mail.is probably down it still has not arrived. So either it's been held at customs or been filched somewhere along the !ine I don't know. I don't have a medical licence so cannot obtain Azithromycin unless I can twist my brother's arm to send me a scrip or maybe members of this forum should begin to share any appropriate medicines if they can be obtained? Let's face it most of us are vulnerab!e over sixties retired with health problems. Maybe there would be enough of us to begin out own clinical trial? You and THH new could supervise it maybe? I just know you're going to say OH GOD FORBID!I:)

    AlainCo Get your facts straight chloroquine acts by making lysosmal vacuoles etc by raising the pH ie more alkaline not acidic. Since when did you have the qualifications to contradict the expert advice and study of an eminent Prof Didier Raoult who has had years of experience studying virology etc? Are you with the WHO medical mafia who are stopping all our chloroquine supplies?

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