Covid-19 News

Quote from THHuxleynew

Well that is depressing I agree.

1. Maybe the demographics pushes it up a bit though.
2. And maybe lack of working health care does the same.
3. 25% of tested population positive does not mean total infection rate is positive since tests are done over long period of time, so that can be pushed up too!
4. Finally there was some rumour of Italian all cause deaths being classified as COVID, which again could push it up.

So I'm still going to hope for < 0.5% in a more average population.

• Iceland does not count because of v low infection rate and complete shielding of those most at risk.
• California serology doe snot count for reasons previously posted

We will get more info from serology as time progresses.

Display More

I agree on your points except 4. Only the tested cases were classified as Covid-19. This on the contrary left out of the statistics many deaths for which there were no means nor time to test.

Lack of working healthcare yes, in spite of Lombardy being the best equipped region in Italy. But the spread was so exponentially fast that they had to prioritize who would get cured and sacrificed the elderly and those with little chance of survival. I am afraid the same applied to NYC and it definitely was the case in Wuhan.

Finally yes, serology tests are key. Many kits are proving reliable, fast and very low cost, and massive testing will be the real weapon to understand and control the problem

Quote from Deleo

Not to be a downer, but I think a bigger part of the story in the coming weeks will be the chronic health problems many people are left with who got sick from the virus. This article outlines them. There are also reports now of Doctors in several places scrambling for dialysis machines because of kidney failure:

https://www.jpost.com/health-s…-body-doctors-fear-625099

This (e.g. severe lung damage) is nothing new and has been communicated by Japanese doctors - involved in the avigan study - already a month ago. If you start treatment (to) late then live can turn bad. Side effects can be seen as follow up of any illness. Just telling shocking stories is either tactics to influence the dumb reader or to make money with sensational news. After two weeks of intubation you do not luckily survive anyway...

Only a serious aftermath study - yes you have to wait at least a year - will show whether we have more side effects than e.g. after a flue.

Most RNA (herpes, aids etc.) virus can stay in your body - (reverse) encoded in your DNA. Such left overs form a huge part of the so call junk DNA. But more clever virus (measles, chicken pocks) hide along more or less inert tissues. If your immune system gets weaker, age >70 then these might reoccur. In case of chicken pocks/ shingles even much earlier. But we live with corona since ever, just not with the new "creative" version .. - containing some AIDS add-ons and a lab marker ...

And in SoCal, the intellectual level of the protests is always rising. For example, in the SDUT newspaper's blog:

Quote

Crista Curtis, a Cardiff resident who organized Sunday’s protest, said “the last straw” for her was when Encinitas last week closed the Coastal Rail Trail, a popular walking path.

She said she organized the protest mainly to call for the reopening of beaches and trails, but she also thinks more businesses should be allowed to reopen, such as beauty salons.

“I can’t get my eyebrows waxed one-on-one? I can’t get my nails done,” she said. “I don’t see the point of all businesses being closed.”

Several protesters said they view the closures as an infringement on their freedom.

Yes. Sure. Let's let people die so you can get your eyebrows waxed, Crista.

https://www.sandiegouniontribu…rus-live-updates-april-16

Edited to remove spurious sarcasm. It's important to know a large number of Americans think like this.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

Yes. Sure. Let's let people die so you can get your eyebrows waxed, Crista.

Sorry for the joke: What is a blonde doing one step ahead of a clip? -- Just checking the lips color... (.. in her pocket mirror covering the eyes..)

Or what did Robert Altman say in one of his famous fun movies? A healthy body delivers a healthy cadaver... Or in the case above: If you go to death than pretty as usual or may be you have to watch Brazil (with famous Robert De Niro) once more!

Quote from Deleo

Not to be a downer, but I think a bigger part of the story in the coming weeks will be the chronic health problems many people are left with who got sick from the virus.

Yup. As I said, a common theme in the 1920s was people who were never the same after the Spanish flu. They had respiratory problems and difficulty climbing stairs for the rest of their lives.

A lot of young people seem to think that because their mortality rate is 0.1, compared to 3.6% for people age 60, they have nothing to worry about. They have a lot to worry about! Not just death, but coughing up blood for weeks or months after recovering. Or having your leg amputated, as noted.

This is a very serious disease. Not like a bad cold. More like getting hit by a Mack truck.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

Here is how Sweden is doing with their partial lock down. Not very well. (Two days old graph)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Note the the y-axis is cumulative cases, and not a daily total. The steady slope suggests a stable daily total. Ie, cases are peaking.

This is the state of affairs currently in the US (linear on top, log on the bottom).

I just watched a long interview with Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University- some what of an iconoclast and author of "Why Most Research Findings Are Wrong." He advocates for a reasonable plan to allow less vulnerable members of the society, as determined by age, essential occupation and later immune status, go back to work. It sounds reasonable but we all know that once significant lockdowns are reversed, a lot of people will disregard all or most of the restrictions. The current rate if infection and death is seen below for the USA. What will happen to it if restrictions are significantly eased? Do we really want to find out absent adequate testing of either active virus shedding or immune antibodies? And absent any vaccine or proven effective medication?

Plots: https://www.worldometers.info/…utm_campaign=homeAdUOA?Si

Quote from seven_of_twenty

I just watched a long interview with Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University- some what of an iconoclast and author of "Why Most Research Findings Are Wrong."

The first ideas to fully contain the virus are mot since quite some time now. People have to learn to live with this new threat.

Compared to other diseases SARS/MERS we had quite some luck as we could identify some medication that works pretty well. We also do have reliable live test for mass testing in the millions. The full antibody test of Roche that tests both signals (the early infection response and the long time IGg after 4 weeks) will be available in early May. It work the same way (fully automated) as the current live test. Currently it runs in Germany only as its developed in the German branch.

Novartis got the official CDC OK to do a HCQ study in the US with 440 participants. A bit late and hopefully not the same idiot way with just only HCQ....

Testlinks: https://pharmafield.co.uk/phar…w-covid-19-antibody-test/

https://www.pharmalive.com/roc…-19-antibody-test-system/

Today Germany, France and some other European countries start to ease some lockdown restrictions and are reopening a large number of shops. Switzerland will follow in a week.

But the mask discussion is going on. May be wearing a mask is just a good reminder to control the distance as there is more new evidence that the virus also does spread airborne without droplets. This would be good thing as the consequence would be - in most cases - a low initial dose infection.

I hope that people can agree soon on the only adequate measures possible: Fully protect the vulnerable (as said by Ioannidis) - provide early medication/treatment after first symptoms and the duty to self isolate (at least 10 days) in case you have symptoms even if it is just a cold!!

Whether wearing masks or washing your hands to often is counterproductive in the long, we need to find out during the next 4 weeks - based on antibody test to identify low does proliferation paths.

(Of course for medical or caring personal there are different rules!)

Quote from seven_of_twenty

He advocates for a reasonable plan to allow less vulnerable members of the society, as determined by age, essential occupation and later immune status, go back to work.

I saw an interview with one of the people who make the healtdata.org website (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america). He brought up something I have not read elsewhere: the reservoir of active, contagious cases is an issue. Everyone knows the daily total new cases is an important parameter. To contain the virus, you cannot have more new cases than field workers can monitor and trace. You cannot have many new cases that come from unknown sources. (That is the problem they have had in Japan in recent weeks, which is why their containment started to fail.)

Here is what I mean by "reservoir:" a large number of sick and still-contagious people, in hospitals, or at home. This person thought the total in the U.S. should be less than ~100,000 before social distancing can be eased. It takes 2 or 3 weeks for patients to become non-contagious and safe for nurses and family members to be around without protection. The total active cases in the U.S. is 653,000 (Worldmeters). That seems like a lot, but the half-life of a contagious active case is 2 weeks, so once the epidemic comes under control and the number of infections per active case falls well below 1, the number of active cases should fall rapidly.

Quote from Wyttenbach

The first ideas to fully contain the virus are mot since quite some time now. People have to learn to live with this new threat.

Not true. The virus is almost fully contained in China, Korea and Taiwan. It was almost fully contained in Japan until a few weeks ago, and it may soon be again. South Korea reports ~10 new cases per day, and they have the most extensive testing per capita of any country in the world, so there are virtually no hidden cases. If there were many hidden cases, you would see more new cases popping up, and large fluctuations in the daily new cases.

There is no need for people in first-world countries to live with this new threat. The only reason we have live with it is because our political leaders are incompetent fools who do not understand the first thing about science.

Quote from JedRothwell

Not true. The virus is almost fully contained in China, Korea and Taiwan.

This is only true of south Korea (+ Taiwan) that lucky did start with a single huge cluster infection and never passed over the threshold to reach the uncontrolled stage. Do not believe the Chinese reporting as deep sources say these simple do not report cases of other regions for political reasons.

Japan crossed the line of a controllable infection weeks ago, because they allowed free partying karaoke etc. among the younger that very often show no symptoms but do spread. Singapur already is a mess, but they also do not report because mostly working slaves are affected...

For the rest of the world the idea of a full containment is mot especially for the USA. Or do you really want to live in a third world country soon ??

It would be better to put them on their
stomachs, possibly placing them in “steel lungs” (I don't know the name in
English: it was the beds used in the 40s and 50s for patients with
polyomyelitis.) Iron Lungs

Quote from JedRothwell

There is no need for people in first-world countries to live with this new threat. The only reason we have live with it is because our political leaders are incompetent fools who do not understand the first thing about science.

Population of Germany : 81.4 million

Population of US : 365 million

Number of cases Germany : 145,800

Number of cases in US : 770,564

Number of deaths Germany : 4,648

Number of deaths US : 41,114

Percent of German Population infected : .17%

Percent of US population infected : .21%

Mortality rate of infected Germany : 3.2%

Mortality rate of infected US : 3.2%

For all the accolades placed on Ms. Merkel on this blog about being a trained scientist, understanding and following science and all the shit being placed on a certain leader in the US, it does not seem much difference if being accomplished by that learned and stellar leader! Perhaps she has to deal with a political climate as well? You think?

Not much difference at all, especially considering the VAST difference in complexity and size of the two countries.

Remember, in the US, it is the GOVERNORS and state legislature that control medical disciplines. NOT the POTUS.

You have 50 governors and 50 state legislatures to piss on here. However, I will still take our system of democracy over any in the world. As they say... if you don't like it, then run for office, move to China or quit complaining! Stick to constructive criticisms.

Arm chair quarter backs not needed. Try getting out and running a private business today, with your life savings invested, now at risk of losing everything you have worked for over years and years and your future at stake... along with other employees welfare in mind.... yes including their health safety. You views might very well change. I can say this because I AM doing this... or at least trying to survive during this time.

Those who have not been affected by this pandemic (tenured and retired with pensions) have a tendency to view from a very simplistic view point.

Life is not simple. No matter what the graphs say!

Want a good indication of how absurd and political this has become.....!

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/n…against-humanity-n1178501

But I am sure some here would think this a good idea.

Quote from Bob#2

Mortality rate of infected Germany : 3.2%

Mortality rate of infected US : 3.2%

During the whole lock down phase mortality will go up. The New York figure is now at 7%. The German figure doubled too. But such figures tell nothing as we don't know the real number of affected, the number of immune people not even showing antibodies, hidden mortality e.g. in care homes etc..

Winner is the country that survives not the country with the lowest mortality, but this might be the same one (e.g. Taiwan..).

Mortality rate in US is 5,2% based on these numbers, not 3,2%...but different to Germany the infection rate seems about to peak now in the US while Germany is on its way down since a week...

Quote from zorud

Mortality rate in US is 5,2% based on these numbers, not 3,2%...but different to Germany the infection rate seems about to peak now in the US while Germany is on its way down since a week...

Since testing and therefore how many cases are recorded is very variable across countries it is not at all easy to compare mortality rates, even well after the epidemic when most of those who will die have died (in the middle the mortality rates appear much lower, and of course comparisons don't work because countries are at different stages in epidemic).

Eventually we will have accurate data for total number of infections based on antibody tests. Then we can compute real mortality rates an compare.

The correct comparison benchmark for country's success in dealing with this - total deaths per million - will be dominated by total infection rate. With China, Taiwan doing much better than most western countries and just a few countries: Iceland, New Zealand - leading the world. (Iceland unusual in that it gets very low mortality from good shielding as well as low infection rate).

Quote from zorud

Mortality rate in US is 5,2% based on these numbers, not 3,2%...but different to Germany the infection rate seems about to peak now in the US while Germany is on its way down since a week...

Thanks for the correction. Thumbs on the calculator and not taking time to double check.

I still feel comfortable with my point.

Quote from Bob#2

Population of Germany : 81.4 million

Population of US : 365 million

Number of cases Germany : 145,800

Number of cases in US : 770,564

Number of deaths Germany : 4,648

Number of deaths US : 41,114

Percent of German Population infected : .17%

Percent of US population infected : .21%

Mortality rate of infected Germany : 3.2%

Mortality rate of infected US : 3.2%

For all the accolades placed on Ms. Merkel on this blog about being a trained scientist, understanding and following science and all the shit being placed on a certain leader in the US, it does not seem much difference if being accomplished by that learned and stellar leader! Perhaps she has to deal with a political climate as well? You think?

Not much difference at all, especially considering the VAST difference in complexity and size of the two countries.

Remember, in the US, it is the GOVERNORS and state legislature that control medical disciplines. NOT the POTUS.

You have 50 governors and 50 state legislatures to piss on here. However, I will still take our system of democracy over any in the world. As they say... if you don't like it, then run for office, move to China or quit complaining! Stick to constructive criticisms.

Arm chair quarter backs not needed. Try getting out and running a private business today, with your life savings invested, now at risk of losing everything you have worked for over years and years and your future at stake... along with other employees welfare in mind.... yes including their health safety. You views might very well change. I can say this because I AM doing this... or at least trying to survive during this time.

Those who have not been affected by this pandemic (tenured and retired with pensions) have a tendency to view from a very simplistic view point.

Life is not simple. No matter what the graphs say!

Want a good indication of how absurd and political this has become.....!

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/n…against-humanity-n1178501

But I am sure some here would think this a good idea.

Display More

Bob,

How long have you been on this site?

His views about US political leadership CANNOT change.

Rigid, inflexible political hatred that borders on bigoted, racist zealotry is always a one way street, it’s like the dark side of the force

Once you start down that path, forever will it dominate your destiny.

Eventually, he must “unlearned” what he has learned, or turn in his light saber.😎

Wait for the Avigan to kick in in Germany now it has been widely distributed, should see no change in cases but a dramatic reduction in deaths if its effective. Similarly for HCQ in India..