Covid-19 News

Quote from oldguy

This seems to be a total outlier and the numbers should be checked.

Nearest I can figure it is an anti-vaccine leaning writer.

I don't think I am ready to think that not giving vaccines is real cause of reduced child deaths during the pandemic.

But here it is:
Lessons from the Lockdown—Why Are So Many Fewer Children Dying?

https://childrenshealthdefense…any-fewer-children-dying/

"Starting in early March, expected deaths began a sharp decline, from an expected level of around 700 deaths per week to well under 500 by mid‐April and throughout May. ^[1]

ref----1. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System. [Online] [Cited: June 6, 2020.] https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html.

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This is typical unthinking antivax conspiracy theory.

It is not surprising total child deaths are down:

(1) child deaths from COVID are << other causes

(2) child deaths from other causes (accidents etc) are affected by lockdown. Specifically car accidents, but many other things too. I've no idea what the breakdown is, it would be interesting to see.

In 1900, pneumonia and influenza, tuberculosis, and enteritis with diarrhea were the three leading causes of death in the United States, and children under 5 accounted for 40 percent of all deaths from these infections (CDC, 1999a). Today, only pneumonia (in combination with influenza) is among the top 10 causes of death overall or for children. Substantial declines in mortality have continued in recent decades. During the past 40 years, infant deaths due to pneumonia and influenza fell from 314 per 100,000 live births in 1960 to 8 per 100,000 in 1999 (Singh and Yu, 1995; NCHS, 2001b). As infectious disease mortality has declined in significance, unintentional and intentional injuries have emerged as leading causes of death, especially for children past infancy.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK220806/

In the UK other cause mortality for young people went down locking them in.

It seems all you need is to confuse correlation for causation and you believe every conspiracy theory going.

Fauci warning that we could see 100,000 cases per day. It looks like we are at about 45k new cases per day right now, but he must see something he doesn't like.

https://www.axios.com/fauci-se…eb-a8f7-07dcbd41d11c.html

Quote from oldguy

The article of the article seems to point to reduced numbers of vaccines as the reason for lower deaths.

Someone should look at the numbers and the various causes of death. I would wonder if the rates of deaths are lower because the kids stayed home and not out having car accidents or being shot or mom is staying home giving the chicken soup or some other reason.

correlation is not causation

But it the lower numbers are interesting and it does look like a real decrease.

Yes, I agree with all of this, and can accept there’s been a real decrease in numbers.

I’m just not surprised a hardcore anti-vax site (seems to be tied to R. Kennedy Jr.) jumped to the conclusion that fewer vaccinations is the causal factor.

And as an aside, half the articles on that sites ‘environment’ section seem to be about the dangers of 5G...

Quote from JedRothwell

Give me a break. Look at the number of hospitalizations in Georgia, or the situation in Texas:

Yes: You definitely need a break:

Albeit total US cases/day are up 50%, deaths are down by more than 500%/cases. Obviously something has changed!

May be you can find it out yourself. Or lets assume more people now know what helps to fight CoV-19. Also today nobody gets an early ventilator anymore if something else might help too.

Also US excess mortality has vanished what is a clear indication that you can let it run. But location where many people gather on a small space like Bars/clubs definitely need strict rules. Also they should fine people that cough in front of others or do not isolate.

Quote from oldguy

The article of the article seems to point to reduced numbers of vaccines as the reason for lower deaths.

Someone should look at the numbers and the various causes of death. I would wonder if the rates of deaths are lower because the kids stayed home and not out having car accidents or being shot or mom is staying home giving the chicken soup or some other reason.

correlation is not causation

But it the lower numbers are interesting and it does look like a real decrease.

I haven't sourced the data showing the decrease, but let's assume it's true : death rates for infants (kids less than 1 year old) is down something like 25 percent now during the pandemic.

SIDS accounts for about 6 percent of infant deaths, the third leading cause of death of infants.

Car accidents are about one third of that - say 2 percent.

About 30 percent are additive contributions from unspecified 'residual causes.'

Car accidents are down about 30 percent during the pandemic, but even if they were down 100 percent it would result in only a 2 percent infant mortality decrease, not nearly enough to account for the 25 percent decrease. SIDS - sometimes blamed on vaccinations - at 6 percent cannot account for the 25 percent decrease. I would like to know if SIDS itself has actually decreased. I guess it will be at least halved.

Maternity leave in the US is often only 3 months, so often infants are in daycare. Perhaps as oldguy alluded, care at home by a parent may be healthier for a child.

The unspecified residual causes, cumulating to a whopping 30 percent of infant mortalities, has me wondering what they are.

I vote for all the above.

Quote from Toffoli

What a coincidence!

322 new Covid cases in Mississippi!

...

(thanks to J. Stone)

Another thing to bake your noodle is this : 322 = 2 * 7 * 23

where 7 and 23 are the number of Rossi collaborators specified in posts yesterday and today.

Quote from Shane D.

[Give me a break. Look at the number of hospitalizations in Georgia,]

No break for you, until after you read this new article about Georgia:

https://justthenews.com/politi…ust-hit-3-month-low-covid

"The state of Georgia has reached a three-month low in its number of recorded coronavirus deaths"

Yes, I am well aware. The 7-day running average of deaths has fallen from 43 to 26 for the last confirmed date (June 3). It might have fallen to around 15 or so, but that data is not final. See:

https://www.ajc.com/news/coron…d/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

Note that I said "hospitalizations," not deaths. Hospitalizations are increasing even though deaths are decreasing, mainly because more young people are getting sick. That is not exactly good news. See: "Current hospital cases by day in Georgia." Deaths will probably increase in a few weeks, because older people are also getting sick in increasing numbers. Even for the elderly cohort, the ratio of death to illness will probably not be as high as it was a few months ago, because therapies have improved. That is described in the video I posted above. The ratio will not be as bad, but deaths will probably increase. The video also describes the acute agony young patients endure in the hospital. Roughly 20% of them end up there. As we have noted, many of them may suffer for the rest of their lives. So again, Give Me A Break. There is no good news in this. Exponentially increasing rates may lead to 100,000 new cases a day according to Fauci. Even if that does not mean 2,000 deaths per day a few weeks later (2% case mortality), it will probably mean thousands of ruined lives; thousands of young people who will never be healthy again, and whose lungs resemble "stale marshmallow" as one surgeon described it.

None of this should have happened. There should not be more than a few hundred cases per day in the U.S. There would not be, if the Federal government had responded correctly.

Note that reporting lags considerably in Georgia, especially on weekends. The numbers tend to increase a little even weeks later. See the graphs titled:

Confirmed cases by date of symptom onset* in Georgia

Confirmed cases by date of symptom onset* in Georgia

The dotted lines show data that is likely to be updated. As of today, the June 30 running average is 17 but as you see in the latter graph that is probably the effect of the weekend lag, and it is likely to be smoothed upward

Quote from Wyttenbach

Albeit total US cases/day are up 50%, deaths are down by more than 500%/cases. Obviously something has changed!

Everyone knows the main cause of this. It is obvious from the statistics. The number of young patients has increased a great deal, and the ratio of young to old is now higher than it was. So case mortality is declining. The number of older patients is again going up, the deaths will rise. However, even with older patients, there is no doubt that case mortality has fallen, because therapies have improved. If the hospitals are overwhelmed, case mortality will rise, as the doctor said in the video I posted above.

That is what every authoritative data source says. They also all say that unless the present increase is stemmed, very large numbers of people will be gravely sick, the number of dead will rise, and probably hundreds of thousands will suffer for the rest of their lives. At the present rate, there will be 175,000 total deaths by October 1, 2020. (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america) You can extrapolate how many more there will be at this rate if a vaccine is not available until, say, April 2021. Now extrapolate how many there will be if it takes 3 years to produce a vaccine. Do the numbers and then Give Me A Break. That will be the worst public health disaster and the worst economic depression in U.S. history. It will rival the Civil War in per capita deaths. (Civil War deaths were 2% of the population.)

Quote from Wyttenbach

"Gilead crap" after a fudged study is claimed to work. All cited for dumb readers.

The readers in Thailand are more blessed. with transparency about the Balm of Gilead

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-remdesivir-gilead-sets-price-at-us$2,340-to-us$3,120-for-drug-that-has-no-safety-studies-or-true-efficacy-except-that-it-shortens-hospitalization

"BREAKING! Remdesivir: Gilead Sets Price At US$2,340 to US$3,120 For Drug

That Has No Safety Studies or True Efficacy Except That It Shortens Hospitalization Stays.

"at that price, analysts expect Gilead to make $525 million on remdesivir sales this year and $2.1 billion next year."

"What is interesting was that when Thailand Medical News contacted generic companies in India who have

the means of producing the drug, they said that production of a single dose bottle would not cost even more than US$22!

Quote from Toffoli

What a coincidence!

322 new Covid cases in Mississippi!

322 new Covid cases in Ohio! 

322 new Covid cases in Oman!

322 new Covid cases in Kentucky!

322 new Covid cases in Mississippi! 

322 new Covid cases in Armenia!

322 new Covid cases in Iraq!

322 Covid cases in Bangkok!

322 new Covid cases in Juarez!

322 new Covid cases in El Paso!

322 new Covid cases in Mexico City!

322 new Covid cases in Oaxaca!

322 new Covid cases in WISCONSIN!

322 new Covid cases in IOWA

322 new Covid deaths in DELAWARE

322 new Covid cases in Italy

322 new Covid cases in Massachussetts

(thanks to J. Stone)

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Interesting. No doubt as a fully paid-up member of the conspiracy theory club, you’ll be aware that 322 links back to Yale’s Skull and Bones club. Which almost certainly confirms some related dubious hypothesis, or something.

Or perhaps its just a restatement of the Birthday Paradox, as suggested by the fact those articles span over four months... And proven by the fact it works with other numbers too. Try googling “xxx new covid cases”...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/3…nd-1918-pandemic-flu.html

Dr. Anthony Fauci says new virus in China has traits of 2009 swine flu and 1918 pandemic flu

https://www.cnbc.com/video/202…nd-1918-pandemic-flu.html

Ah yes, sorry, I completely forgot so-called 'conspiracy theories' are the accepted norm in certain circles these days. Please accept my apologies.

Not sure you quite understand the meaning of 'coincidence' though, as they tend to be remarkable, and not the product of a worldwide search.

As for the Skull and Bones Club, why not google it? Nowt to do with pirates.

Ivermectin + Azithromycin successful trial of 1,300 patients in Dominican Republic --

President of Dominican Republic’s Largest Private Health Group Discusses the Success

of Ivermectin as a Treatment for Early Stage COVID-19

Excerpt: "Of the 1,300 patients we have treated (early state cases), over 99% have been

cured within 8 to 10 days. It has been frankly amazing. It’s truly feels like a gift from above.

https://www.trialsitenews.com/…for-early-stage-covid-19/

Long last non-antibody immune response from common colds prevents Covid-19 --

How having a cold could protect you from Covid-19: Scientists uncover MORE evidence that

fighting off mild respiratory bugs may make you immune to the coronavirus

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8475639

Quote from Toffoli

It's evident that you are mistaking me for some of your colleagues!

I've said it's a coincidence... what else if not ?

Toffoli, the problem here is that when people remark upon a coincidence they are usually implying the opposite.

You have on these pages repeatedly posted correlations without serious analysis as to causation, definitely give the impression you think these things are not coincidences (I'd mostly agree) and that in fact there is causation as suggested by some far out conspiracy theory (I'd nearly always disagree).

One reason I dislike the conspiracy theory stuff is that it is seldom debated honestly. When it is, those proposing these far-out explanations bring together a set of apparently corroborative facts without any research into alternate causes or sense of balance. It annoys me.

My classic "correlation is not causation" example for this thread:

The closer to the EU headquarters, the higher the risk from COVID-19?

Another example of correlations not being causative:

Lack of pirates causes global warming?

Sorry to go on about this, but it is very topical for this thread.

In medicine, working out the effect of any treatment (whether COVID treatment, or vaccine) is very difficult exactly because correlations are not necessarily (in fact not even usually) causative). The one guaranteed tool to get reliable information is the quadruple-blind randomizes control trial, where there can be no extraneous correlational links, and therefore no unconsidered causation. Any correlation you see then must be the direct result of the randomized intervention.

That is why vaccines get RCTs. Big ones. Even so, once you vaccinate a whole population you lose any reliable way to detect low level adverse effects of the vaccine. High level ones - pretty obvious. And such vaccines get stopped.

You cannot track changes over time that correlate with vaccination and assume causation:

(a) because many other societal changes will also correlate

(b) because level of vaccination may be correlated with other things

You cannot correlate outcome with vax versus non-vax and assume causation:

(a) because levels of vaccination may vary over time and locality, and correlate with other things

(b) because whether children are vaccinated may directly correlate with other factors (social, medical) in family circumstances

Why so important for this thread?

Whether the US gets out of CV semi-lockdown will depend on how many people are convinced by the antivaxer arguments.

It matters more than just a lot more children getting very bad measles infections (which we now have because of the 20 years old MMR vaccine false testimony from a single high profile doctor).

Usually in society we shrug off possible low level adverse effects. In fact we ignore even high level adverse effects caused by pollution and known (because we have the causative mechanism). However certain things catch the imagination and become causes:

• Society mandating that doctors stick needles into children for the good of society
• Low level risks from nuclear contamination
• Medical effects of e-m radiation

Probably a few others involving aliens and UFOs. It is not that all of these low-level risks are as far-fetched as abduction by aliens. What they share is a reason for conviction that is non-rational.

Where you are proposing low-level risks it is just very difficult, without a direct and demonstrated quantitative causative mechanism, to know anything. Into that uncertainty underlying convictions shine through.