Examination of effectiveness of masks, distancing and bubbles in various scenarios.

Masks are less effective in high transmission settings.

Social bubbles are less effective but in low transmission settings.

Physical distancing, unsurprisingly, is universally effective so no room for argument there. Only issue of course is that continuous physical distancing is not always possible therefore even with this measure there needs to be balance and pragmatism e.g. care home residents and prisons.

Wall Street positivity on the vaccine front.

Some 70% of the U.S. population of 330 million would need to be inoculated to achieve herd immunity, which is possible by May 2021, although currently 42% of citizens say they would not have the vaccine.

"Ramos said those estimates may be overly optimistic and the economic benefits of vaccinations will not be apparent until the second half of next year, increasing chances that the recent U.S. economic slowdown could worsen.

But targeted vaccinations could revive the economy even with delays in widespread adoption, said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse Securities."

“The successful vaccination of seniors and front-line workers could expedite the renormalization process well before herd immunity is achieved,” he said. The S&P 500 may reach 4,050 by the end of 2021, up about 13% from its current level, he estimated.

Quote from Shane D.

I have never been into pointing fingers at people getting infected, and shaming them because they happen to live in a blue state, or red state. Most of those dying are old and feeble, and under the care of others.They could not help it. So it has nothing to do with red/blue, or politics...but all about the virus to me.

I was only trying to make that point to Zeus.

The 'fools' I referred to are the politicians, not the people in nursing homes, although that was unclear in my post.

But if you want to argue that "it has nothing to do with red/blue, or politics", you need to come up with a good alternative explanation for these two charts:

...As they seem to me to be incontrovertible proof that it has almost everything to do with politics.

Covid: Free Vitamin D pills for 2.5 million vulnerable in England

https://news.google.com/articl…=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

Health officials say that even in a normal winter, everyone should take 10 micrograms of Vitamin D a day between October and March - and it's particularly important this year because of coronavirus.

Scottish and Welsh governments, and Northern Ireland's Public Health Agency issued similar advice during lockdown.

Quote from Fm1

Bizarre Swan Deaths Reported in Europe As Birds Die After Bleeding From Nostrils and Spinning in Circles

https://news.google.com/articl…=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

n recent weeks, wildlife rescuers have spotted swans spinning in circles and bleeding from their nostrils before dying, The Guardian reported.

Yes, sounds like a virus to me and could not be a blood disorder.

Quote from Toffoli

Who Deserves Your Trust in the COVID Debate?

https://www.aier.org/article/w…rust-in-the-covid-debate/

The article says: "The force of social pressure to conform with the mainstream narrative is large, so we know from the outset that the people willing to argue against it are either insane, or extremely driven, courageous, and strong." This is a false dilemma. There are more possibilities than this. They could be some of those things, all of those things, or they could have other qualities, such as being ornery. They might be publicity hounds, or they might be trying to exploit opposition to science for political gain. The most famous and powerful person opposed to the mainstream is President Trump. He does not strike me as having any of the qualities the author listed.

More to the point, you cannot judge the science based on the personal qualities of these people, or by looking at what motivates them. It makes no difference how driven, courageous, and strong they are: they are still wrong. They are mistaken. They do not understand the science. Being courageous and strong does not make you right. It does not enhance your argument. It might make you admirable in some sense. On the other hand, scientific ignorance is not admirable, so that offsets their bravery.

Going against the status quo does not make you right. It does not mean you are wrong, either. It has no truth value. In any case, opposition to science is very much the status quo in the Republican party, and politicians such as Trump who rail against lockdowns and masks are not brave. They are playing to their base, exploiting ignorance, and killing people to advance their own careers.

The cold fusion researchers have battled opposition and academic politics from day one. Many of them sacrificed their reputations and careers. They felt that scientific truth is more important than their own personal happiness. I find this admirable. However, it does not in any way indicate they are right. It is not evidence that the experiments are correct. It tells you nothing at all about the validity of the claims. By the same token, many of the people opposed to cold fusion are highly political and will use dirty tricks, suppression and ad hominem arguments, but some of them also make scientific claims. Their despicable nature do not prove that their scientific claims are wrong. To judge those claims, you must read their papers and consider the claims on their own merits only, without reference to the personal qualities of the people making them. I will grant that when people act unfairly and engage in gutter-level politics, that makes you suspect they may be trying to deceive you. Naturally, when you evaluate their work, you will be extra careful not to fall for some trick. But, in the end, you have to apply objective, scientific standards to judge the issue. Evil people are sometimes right. Saintly people are sometimes wrong.

Quote from Zeus46

But if you want to argue that "it has nothing to do with red/blue, or politics", you need to come up with a good alternative explanation for these two charts:

Why oh why does the chart start at June? Some degree of herd immunity was reached in states that got hit the earliest, so it is reasonable to think that their infection rates subsequently would be diminished compared to more freshly infected states.

Here is the death rate with covid per capita in various states, with numbers from the beginning of the outbreak:

https://www.statista.com/stati…-death-rates-us-by-state/

The red / blue status looks a bit different now doesn't it?

That said, because red states are more prone to value freedom over supposed safety, they are more likely to continue with what are potential super spreader events. Because of this I would expect their covid death rates to be a somewhat higher than they should be if they were more restrained in certain large public events.

PS I don't know why Jed keeps referring to Canada as an example of how to minimize Covid19. Our Covid19 related deaths per capita is almost 40 percent of that in the US. Nothing to write home about.

Quote from Mark U

Why oh why does the chart start at June? Some degree of herd immunity was reached in states that got hit the earlies

Presumably, it starts in June because the pandemic hit the blue states first, by coincidence. You cannot make a comparison until the pandemic reached all states.

No measurable herd immunity was reached in the states that got hit earlier.

There is no doubt that Republicans are less inclined to wear masks. They say so. Photos and videos show this. They are infected at higher rates and they die at higher rates. Republican leaders politicized this issue, and their followers went along. In some cases, they continue to deny reality until they die. See:

Quote from Mark U

PS I don't know why Jed keeps referring to Canada as an example of how to minimize Covid19. Our Covid19 related deaths per capita is almost 40 percent of that in the US. Nothing to write home about.

Yes, other counties have done better than Canada. But 40% is significant. If the U.S. death rate was 40% of what it is, 163,000 lives would have been saved. A small city full of people.

"This video may be considered controversial. Regardless of view, accuracy or opinion, it is protected by The First Amendment to the United States Constitution."

COVID 911- The Deep State Insurgency

"Let me tell you a story ..."

Big on story, big on drama, light on facts.

So the Deep State Democrats moved elderly people from the hospitals into care homes to stoke the death toll. OMG!

But hang on so did many countries in Europe and elsewhere make the same mistakes with care home residents. Those pesky Democrats have a long reach?!?

How have the Democrates managed to "inflate" the deaths in UK, EU, Brazil, etc etc. yada yada?

And now the death toll is climbing in states with Republican governors, are the Democrats somehow to blame there also?

If the Democrats are part of the deep state then how come the Republicans are the more successful party in recent decades?

How come when the US refused to use foreign tests offered by the WHO so the CDC produce an American testing kit that turned out to be flawed but the executive took a month to decide how to fix it?

Also I hear, but it may be fake news, that Kushner came up with a national strategy for Covid in March but it was shelved because the executive decided at the time that Covid was mainly a problem in Democrat states.

Kushner Covid 19 plan.

Just sayin.

Quote from Toffoli

"This video may be considered controversial. Regardless of view, accuracy or opinion, it is protected by The First Amendment to the United States Constitution."

COVID 911- The Deep State Insurgency

https://www.publishedreporter.com/docs/COVID-911.mp4

If someone really wants to help, use data. For example, some interesting statistics here which show

- no elderly increase in mortality % during peak

- little change in deaths once reduced deaths from other causes is taken

https://web.archive.org/web/20…-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

I'd like to see the original data.

Small actions: volunteer to grab the data from the 2019 and 2020 datasets and run the numbers please do it and post an excel file here.

Quote from JedRothwell

And you do not recognize sarcasm.

yes, sarcasm is when people lie and then laugh at it.

Not a good thing to do in science.

The full cholesterol study

HDL-scavenger receptor B type 1 facilitates SARS-CoV-2 entry

https://www.nature.com/articles/s42255-020-00324-0

Responsible for the ongoing coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infects host cells through binding of the viral spike protein (SARS-2-S) to the cell-surface receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). Here we show that the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) scavenger receptor B type 1 (SR-B1) facilitates ACE2-dependent entry of SARS-CoV-2. We find that the S1 subunit of SARS-2-S binds to cholesterol and possibly to HDL components to enhance viral uptake in vitro. SR-B1 expression facilitates SARS-CoV-2 entry into ACE2-expressing cells by augmenting virus attachment. Blockade of the cholesterol-binding site on SARS-2-S1 with a monoclonal antibody, or treatment of cultured cells with pharmacological SR-B1 antagonists, inhibits HDL-enhanced SARS-CoV-2 infection. We further show that SR-B1 is coexpressed with ACE2 in human pulmonary tissue and in several extrapulmonary tissues. Our findings reveal that SR-B1 acts as a host factor that promotes SARS-CoV-2 entry and may help explain viral tropism, identify a possible molecular connection between COVID-19 and lipoprotein metabolism, and highlight SR-B1 as a potential therapeutic target to interfere with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

More people died of suicide in Japan in one month than the entire coronavirus pandemic

https://www.foxnews.com/world/…tire-coronavirus-pandemic

"The National Police Agency said suicides surged to 2,153 in October alone, with more than 17,000 people taking their own lives this year to date, CBS reported.

By comparison, fewer than 2,000 people in the country have died from COVID-19 in 2020.

Experts say the pandemic has exacerbated mental health issues due to prolonged lockdowns, isolation from family members, unemployment and other financial concerns, and a lack of school structure. "

Quote from oldguy

More people died of suicide in Japan in one month than the entire coronavirus pandemic

That is because very few people in Japan have died from the pandemic. Only 2042 so far. The number of suicides has not increased, as far as I know. On the contrary, in recent years, roughly 30,000 people in Japan commit suicide, so the rate may have fallen this year.

That rate is a little lower than the U.S. Experts say suicide is more common in the U.S. because guns are widely available.

Your comparison is meaningless. 3,000 people in Japan died last year in automobile accidents, but that has no connection with COVID-19, and comparing it is comparing apples to oranges.

Quote from JedRothwell

Your comparison is meaningless

It is not my comparison, it is the article. That is why it is in quotes.... duh

FYI:

"To date, more than 17,000 people have taken their own lives this year in Japan. October self-inflicted deaths were up 600 year on year, with female suicides, about a third of the total, surging over 80%."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/j…-than-total-covid-deaths/