People in the low risk group (<55, healthy) do not fear sickness, or death from COVID because the stats show them they don't have to. So why push, or coerce them to get vaccinated?
Oh yeah? You should check that. Try:
https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/
Input a 50 year old male in DeKalb county with no health problems living with 3 other people. Results:
County prevalence
We found data from DeKalb County, GA for your zip code. As of April 25, 2021 , this county had 1,155 new reported cases in the last 14 days and 57,257 total reported cases of COVID-19. Many people who contract COVID-19 are not tested, and therefore not reported. We estimate that your county has an under-reporting factor of 4.3x .
Taking into account the under-reporting factor and average time from symptom onset to recovery, we estimate that:
There are 5,014 total sick people distributed throughout the county, including those who are not officially reported.
1 in every 151 people in your county is currently infected with COVID-19. . . .
Risk of contracting COVID-19
Among people in your county who have behaviors and levels of interaction with others that are similar to yours, the estimated probability of catching COVID-19 through community transmission in a week is 0.04% . For comparison, 0.41% of Americans catch the flu every week during flu season.
Good to know that you wash your hands per CDC guidance. In general, hand washing reduces people's risk of being exposed to COVID-19 by 55% . Good to know that you wear personal protective equipment per CDC guidelines . In general, wearing personal protective equipment reduces people's risk of being exposed to COVID-19 by 68% .
Risk of adverse outcomes from COVID-19
Among people who are the same age, sex, and health status as you and get sick from COVID-19, the risk of hospitalization is 11% , the risk of requiring an ICU is 3.5% , and the risk of not surviving is 0.79% .
That's only a 2% chance in year but . . . would you frequent a fast food joint where 1 in 50 people who ate regularly there got severe food poisoning? Would you take an Uber where 1 in 50 passengers got into serious accidents? I sure wouldn't. If you do get sick, you may well be more miserable for longer than you have been in your life. That was my experience with pneumonia. I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy. "The risk of hospitalization is 11%" means you will likely be at home, sleepless, hallucinating and suffering for weeks, but you may well end up in a hospital even worse off. Sleepless, suffering, with needles stuck into you. No contact with family members allowed. Terrible food. Ordinary ICU treatment, with no complications, can leave you debilitated for months.
It may not be terrifying, like getting severe cancer, but it is the most unpleasant thing you may ever experience. And for what? Why not ensure you will not get it, with a simple vaccine? Why risk giving it to other people, especially family members, who are in close quarters and most vulnerable? Apart from the pain and misery and danger, what about the money it costs you to be debilitated for weeks? Many thousands of dollars in medical expenses and lost work. You can avoid that with a zero cost vaccination that takes a half-hour. I cannot understand why any rational person would risk it. What benefit could there be to avoiding the vaccine? Are you afraid of a momentary pin-prick? Do you seriously think that after 530 million doses, there could be a significant problem?
This is very serious illness. It is often far worse than a typical cold or flu.
Were I younger, I would probably prefer to take the natural route (get exposed) and develop immunity that way.
Hey, well, if natural route is what you want, move to India. There is nothing more natural than crowding people two to a bed without enough oxygen to go around, and cremating bodies day and night. If you survive, you do get immunity, although the vaccine immunity is stronger.
The natural route is what I did when I was younger and in excellent health. There was no choice. The natural route for pneumonia is a week in the hospital followed by weeks of misery, coughing, and pleurisy, which feels like sandpaper in your chest every time you breath. Night and day. "Nothing to worry about!" -- the doctors say. "Go home. Take 4 ibuprofen every 4 hours." You would voluntarily subject yourself to that . . . because . . . why? Are you some sort of masochist?
The "natural route" for serious illness such as COVID and other pneumonia is what we had in 1918, and what they are going through in India now. It is to permanently destroy millions of lives and kill tens of millions of people.
No one is pushing or coercing anyone else to get vaccinated in the U.S. We are, however, insisting that after vaccines become available, if you don't want one, we don't want to be in the same store or movie theater or airplane with you. Go ahead and kill yourself, but do not endanger me. Breakthrough cases are rare and usually mild, but I don't want one.