Covid-19 News

  • More Data Out of Israel Leaves Open Questions About Vaccines



    More Data Out of Israel Leaves Open Questions About Vaccines
    It's very challenging to draw conclusions on the risk levels and trajectory of COVID-19. There are a number of variables and they are being interpreted in
    trialsitenews.com


    It’s very challenging to draw conclusions on the risk levels and trajectory of COVID-19. There are a number of variables and they are being interpreted in various ways in the media. One day, we hear how protective the vaccines are and the next we hear about how vaccine immunity is waning. In the latest twist, Israel released data showing that vaccine efficacy is waning since they are seeing the rate of breakthrough cases escalate dramatically when you compare the date of vaccination i.e. January vaccinations are at higher risk than Feb, which are higher risk than March, etc. However, the much more likely reason for this is that Israel (like almost every country) prioritized their vaccine rollout for the most at-risk groups. This is mainly aligned by age with the elderly being first in line. It’s well established that the elderly have poor immune responses to both vaccines and infection. Their poor immune response to vaccines is almost certainly what’s causing the pattern of breakthrough cases. Or could it be something else?


    Regardless, there is no doubt that breakthrough cases are happening at higher numbers than we hoped. The Delta variant is definitely playing a role. However, it still looks like vaccines are holding strong for preventing severe disease and death. It’s not as clear how effective they are at preventing Long Covid. It stands to reason they would be very effective in that regard too. However, individuals that might have died or experienced severe disease prior to vaccination might now face mild or moderate disease and possibly Long Covid.


    When assessing risk, a good indicator is the rate of new hospitalized cases. It sure would be helpful if the COVID-19 tracking websites would break out hospitalizations and death by vaccinated vs unvaccinated. It’s hard to imagine the reason why this isn’t being tracked and heavily reported at this point. It’s much easier to track than cases. The only sources that have revealed insights into Covid disease severity in vaccinated vs unvaccinated are studies, and the news is generally very positive. However, published studies suffer from a long delay in data availability and they typically only look at a limited scope of data.


    TrialSite includes a good website for assessing risk. It provides a running count of hospitalizations at the county, state or national level. It provides plenty of other info but hospitalizations are the most telling. Cases are muddied with asymptomatic and very mild cases which pose little to no risk. Deaths miss most of the severe cases and could greatly understate the risk i.e. if vaccine protection drops with the Delta and only prevents death but doesn’t prevent severe Covid.



    As we see above, the hospitalization rate is going up again in Orange County, CA, as an example. It’s still very low but it’s impossible to assess the future trajectory. It’s also likely that most of those hospitalizations are in unvaccinated and immunocompromised people. It still appears that the risk to healthy, vaccinated people is exceedingly low. However, an individual attempting to make an informed decision on risk for themselves and loved ones is forced to make assumptions based on data lacking critical information. That data is easily obtainable, but is still not being collected or presented to the public. Why?

  • pseudo for a start..not in Biology101

    "Why did Pfizer choose to use pseudouridylyl instead of pseudouridine? "

    "Pfizer"+ "choose to use"= "synthetic.."

    'Synthetic' as in synthetic Cox2 inhibitor= Vioxx...and 'synthetic' as in ciprofloxacin

    Synthetic is +/- but we usually find out the - ve belatedly.. and then often forget



    if people don't like the word...'synthetic' maybe they can use modified viral mRNA...

    However Biology is not a rhetorical science anymore

    it is an information science

    about which humans know less than 0.01% of the information..

    Pseudouridylyl, not pseudouridine
    Bert Hubert recently published Reverse Engineering the source code of the BioNTech/Pfizer SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine and I (along with the rest of the internet) loved…
    caretdashcaret.com

  • Covid cases in US may have been undercounted by 60%, study shows

    Number of reported cases ‘represents only a fraction of the estimated total number of infections’


    Covid cases in US may have been undercounted by 60%, study shows | US news | The Guardian


    The number of Covid-19 cases across the US may have been undercounted by as much as 60%, researchers at the University of Washington have found.



    The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, builds on research which has found the number of reported cases “represents only a fraction of the estimated total number of infections”. It has important implications for how many Americans need to be vaccinated to stop outbreaks.


    The paper comes as a swath of states across the south and midwest, especially Arkansas, Missouri and Louisiana, experience outbreaks driven by Delta variant infections among unvaccinated people.

    There are all sorts of different data sources we can draw on to understand the Covid-19 pandemic,” said Adrian Raftery, a professor of sociology and statistics at the University of Washington and senior study author.


    But, he said, “each source of data has its own flaws that would give a biased picture of what’s really going on. What we wanted to do is to develop a framework that corrects the flaws in multiple data sources and draws on their strengths to give us an idea of Covid-19’s prevalence in a region, a state or the country as a whole.”


    The study incorporated data on deaths, the number of tests administered each day and the proportion that come back positive. Importantly, it also incorporated data from studies of people randomly sampled for Covid-19 in Indiana and Ohio.

    Random sample surveys provide strong evidence of actual prevalence of a disease because they do not rely on people seeking out tests, which often fail to capture asymptomatic infections.


    Based on analysis of that data, researchers found as many as 65 million Americans may have been infected. Official tallies put the number at about 33 million. The University of Washington researchers estimated that 60% of all cases were missed, with only one in every 2.3 cases counted in Indiana and Ohio.


    On Monday, the Covid case count maintained by Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and commonly referred to by media outlets stood at nearly 34.5 million


    Undercounts can “depend on the severity of the pandemic and the amount of testing in that state”, said Nicholas J Irons, a study co-author and postdoctoral student.

    If you have a state with severe pandemic but limited testing, the undercount can be very high and you’re missing the vast majority of infections that are occurring,” he said. “Or, you could have a situation where testing is widespread and the pandemic is not as severe. There, the undercount rate would be lower.”


    The findings have important implications for the prospect of reaching herd immunity, the point at which outbreaks end because a virus cannot find new hosts. As of May, scientists believed the herd immunity threshold for Covid-19 to be around 80%, a number that has edged upward with the emergence of highly contagious variants such as Delta.


    By the spring of 2021, the study indicates, about 20% of the US population had been infected with Covid-19.


    Without a mass vaccination campaign, the findings indicate, the US would be unlikely to reach herd immunity any time soon and therefore likely to suffer waves of outbreaks, hospitalizations and deaths.


    Even with a mass vaccination campaign, the US is unlikely to reach herd immunity this year or perhaps ever, because of highly contagious variants, low vaccine acceptance in some states and because children under 12 are not eligible for vaccines.


    About 56% of Americans are fully vaccinated, but those inoculations are not evenly spread. North-eastern states tend to have administered the highest proportion of vaccines, and states in the south and midwest the lowest.

    That uneven distribution has allowed an outbreak of Delta infections to sweep through unvaccinated people across Arkansas, Missouri and Louisiana. Vaccines currently authorized in the US are highly effective against variants.Low vaccination rates, including among health workers, have in turn sparked a national debate on vaccine mandates, with hospital chains and major city governments beginning to institute mandates for workers to be vaccinated.


    Also on Monday, the American Medical Association issued a joint statement with dozens of doctors’ and nurses’ groups, calling for mandatory vaccination of health workers. Eldercare workers in particular have among the lowest vaccination rates in the medical industry. More than 40% have yet to receive a shot.

  • Right - almost all questions about COVID are open.


    It is however only TSN that has headlines which sound as though the open question is whether vaccines work? Rather than - do they have a higher or lower rate of breakthrough infections 4 variants on from the virus they were designed to handle.

  • if people don't like the word...'synthetic' maybe they can use modified viral mRNA...

    However Biology is not a rhetorical science anymore

    it is an information science

    about which humans know less than 0.01% of the information..


    Right - and you are avoiding the point - which is what is the modification and is it problematic?


    Of course the viral RNA is modified - otherwise you'd be injecting people with COVID..


    Other than word play - you have not said how the use of pseudouridine (sic) is in any way a safety problem.


    You know what it does, right?


    Posting little snippets of tech stuff, hinting without proper without context or valid argument, is a rhetorical device I do not like.


    I know my posts are boring, long-winded, often smug, sometimes wrong. but at least they are not despicable.

  • about which humans know less than 0.01% of the information.

    there is whole lot of biology which I don't know and won't know in a lifetime..

    I did three years of biochemistry physiology cell biology etc in the 70's

    and another two years in the 00's + tedious pharmacology

    ..the information increase was extraordinary in 25 years.

    there's a whole lot more to come..

    I am sure that Sahin and his team know more than me

    but they re tinkering

    with hugely complex and sophisticated control systems.

    experimental science..in epigenetics*..+.immunology

    Maybe they have luck or kismet?


    The Billionaire Scientist Behind The Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine Has Not Sold A Single Share Of His Booming Stock
    Uğur Şahin has not sold any of his BioNTech shares, even as their value soared by 900% in the pandemic, in stark contrast to the executives behind other…
    www.forbes.com


    "Epigenetics is a discipline that studies heritable changes in gene expression that do not involve altering the DNA sequence. Over the past decade, researchers have shown that epigenetic regulation plays a momentous role in cell growth, differentiation, autoimmune diseases, and cancer. The main epigenetic mechanisms include the well-understood phenomenon of DNA methylation, histone modifications, and regulation by non-coding RNAs, a mode of regulation that has only been identified relatively recently and is an area of intensive ongoing investigation.


    Non-coding RNAs as regulators in epigenetics (Review)
    Epigenetics is a discipline that studies heritable changes in gene expression that do not involve altering the DNA sequence. Over the past decade, researchers…
    www.spandidos-publications.com

  • What we do know is that those very marginal asymptomatic infections induce less strong immune response than vaccination or more serious infections.

    THH crap alert SEE:: https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…07.20.21260863v1.full.pdf


    Back to Ct-gate

    More THH crap. Knowing the CT level would reduce the income of Big pharma....


    I understand anyone worrying about vaccine risks. What i don't understand is why they would worry less about vaccine risks than COVID risks.

    Of course you understand it. WE have Ivermectin....And nobody healthy at age below 45 will die from CoV-19. But they will die from the vaccine...

    to give us another year of protection.

    Who is we?? The fools that don't have Ivermectin??? Most get just 5 more months .. if they survive the jab...

  • It’s also likely that most of those hospitalizations are in unvaccinated and immunocompromised people.

    Likely ??? We want to exactly know it!

    Even with a mass vaccination campaign, the US is unlikely to reach herd immunity this year or perhaps ever, because of highly contagious variants, low vaccine acceptance in some states and because children under 12 are not eligible for vaccines.

    This this total bullshit: Read the children paper linked above. Most countries now have surpassed 70% antibody level even without vaccines. It's easy to predict that within 2 months - without future terror lockdowns etc.- the whole CoV-19 story is over.

    Most people now get sick with a low viral dose, have classic cold symptoms and know how to react. The hidden=silent cases seem to increase from 3/4 to 7/8 now.

  • No, it does not. Every expert says it does not.

    the unknown unknowns... to misquote Rumsfeld...


    More of that 99.99% info that the "experts" don't know.


    What does polymerase theta do????

    why would the cell want to reverse the Standard DNA >>> RNA flow????

    .

    "The researchers therefore noticed that some of polymerase theta's "bad" qualities were ones it shared with another cellular machine, albeit one more common in viruses—the reverse transcriptase. Like Pol theta, HIV reverse transcriptase acts as a DNA polymerase, but can also bind RNA and read RNA back into a DNA strand.


    New discovery shows human cells can write RNA sequences into DNA
    Cells contain machinery that duplicates DNA into a new set that goes into a newly formed cell. That same class of machines, called polymerases, also build RNA…
    phys.org

  • But 97% of those 600 are still with mild symptoms so in a week or it will be known If you develop serious COVID or not. 50 out of the 600

    Just trying to get a clear picture...

    Is it not true that 97% of non-vaccinnated people also have mild symptoms? I guess I am missing the point here?


    Is the main point that the vaccine is not stopping infections but assists in mild cases? I may be missing the point....

  • The Swiss CoV-19 data collection has a serious - easily understandable presentation : https://www.covid19.admin.ch/d…logic/death?geoView=table

    Go down to 3/4 of the page where you find CoV-19 death/age class - class size 10 years about 0.8.. 1.2 mio. people in each class. So any pop up value of 0.08..0.12 represents a single death/100'000/week of age class.


    This is real state official base data that cannot be fudged...Albeit THH would like to do so ... You immediately see that the death risk from vaccine for people age < 50 is at least 10x higher than from CoV-19. (25..40/mio) Even a child can understand this data.


    An other vaccine fudge factor shines now up. All older age > 65 that had a CoV-19 infection have been vaccinated. These people are more or less 1000% covered as studies claim and in fact we have to discount the vaccine protection group by 50% because these 50% age > 65 have protection from the natural infection with nothing decisive added by the vaccine.


    So future statistics must make a distinction between infected & vaccinated and only vaccinated. The vaccine mafia certainly won't like this...

    Sad news:: Germany just throws away some x 100'000 vaccine dose. Why ?? The contract forbids to export them...


    I thought we live in a pandemic and some third world countries would like some dose for the older. But not by reducing the mafia income!!!! Please give money to buy new dose. Some very poor and hidden Vanguard, Blackrock, .. funds stake owners urgently need a new yacht.

  • The Swiss CoV-19 data collection has a serious - easily understandable presentation : https://www.covid19.admin.ch/d…logic/death?geoView=table

    Go down to 3/4 of the page where you find CoV-19 death/age class - class size 10 years about 0.8.. 1.2 mio. people in each class. So any pop up value of 0.08..0.12 represents a single death/100'000/week of age class.


    This is real state official base data that cannot be fudged...Albeit THH would like to do so ... You immediately see that the death risk from vaccine for people age < 50 is at least 10x higher than from CoV-19. (25..40/mio) Even a child can understand this data.

    I do not read the language but Google translate seems to do the job.


    I see the death/age class referenced above, but am not sure where the "age < 50 at least 10x higher than from Cov-19" is listed or compared. (Sometimes I do not see as a child!) Is the 25.4/million from another source?


    Thanks!

  • Europe has more stats like 14/mil https://www.precisionvaccinati…vid-19-vaccine-fatalities

    Of course these are official and bogus, but what set are you using 25-40?


    Also, if the avg death per week was 1/mil -- its a constant risk -- but the vaccine is a single event risk of 10/mil -- how would you compare different types of events? Those who want to argue would say they are not the same type of events.

  • Also, if the avg death per week was 1/mil -- its a constant risk -- but the vaccine is a single event risk of 10/mil

    Rough risk numbers covid over a year ... 50*1/mil
    But deaths for ALL ages have fallen to near zero,

    So you're looking at fluctuations at the noise level.

    Edit: But the 14/M in the European database is CORRELATED deaths, not CAUSED deaths (same as USA VAERS)

  • Rough risk numbers covid over a year ... 50*1/mil
    But deaths for ALL ages have fallen to near zero,

    So you're looking at fluctuations at the noise level.

    Edit: But the 14/M in the European database is CORRELATED deaths, not CAUSED deaths (same as USA VAERS)

    For sure, however good analysis should be able to find the signals - we're just not getting that analysis and data from HMOs


    Covid deaths are also correlated because of the PCR test

  • Fauci.."I'm not sure what you're talking about Senator"

    Physician's fault... can't communicate properly?

    'He's Not Going To Answer The Question': GOP Senator Presses Fauci On COVID-19 Origin Theory

    External Content www.youtube.com
    Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.
    Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.

  • Also, if the avg death per week was 1/mil -- its a constant risk -- but the vaccine is a single event risk of 10/mil -- how would you compare different types of events?

    Vaccine death is in the range 20..40/million at least. Already Myocarditis delivers 5/Million according US military statistics.

    We had only 2 CoV-19 deaths for 4 million age < 40 for the vaccine period. Worldwide almost all deaths in this groups are Chemo people or have a hidden severe illness.

    Pfizer/Astra is one issue for the high death rate Moderna/J&J are much (at least 2x) better. So we should do stats/vaccine only.


    I see the death/age class referenced above, but am not sure where the "age < 50 at least 10x higher than from Cov-19" i

    I just did sum up the weekly deaths in the group. 0.08 means one death that week so age group 40..50 had 10 deaths in total for the vaccine period.


    VAERS/Euro vigelence vaccine death database only contain 1/10 of the real cases at best. So it is moderate to multiply deaths by a factor of 3 at least. That way you cut the cases down to 1/3 and add the missing factor of about 10.

  • Sigh.


    Sometimes simple numbers get forgotten - even by very clever people.


    (1) If the COVID-19 infection rate was zero ALL VACINES WOULD BE HIGHER RISK THAN COVID

    (2) Otherwise attitude towards vaccine risks - which are very very small but like all things in this world non-zero) - depends on expectations of future COVID rate.


    Sensible people (and regulators) understand that when the COVID risk is much higher (pretty well everywhere now with delta being so infectious).


    If only 10% of the population are likely to catch COVID - then COVID deaths are 10% smaller, and the comparison with



    Vaccine death is in the range 20..40/million at least. Already Myocarditis delivers 5/Million according US military statistics.

    We had only 2 CoV-19 deaths for 4 million age < 40 for the vaccine period. Worldwide almost all deaths in this groups are Chemo people or have a hidden severe illness.

    Pfizer/Astra is one issue for the high death rate Moderna/J&J are much (at least 2x) better. So we should do stats/vaccine only.

    Death statistics for vaccines are very complex. Forgive me if I am not prepared to forego my own examination and defer to your judgement - which in some areas I rate not at all.


    I welcome the chance to look at those numbers which - you say - imply a death rate of 20..40 per mio for any vaccine. Also a rate of 5 per mio for myocarditis (Pfizer vaccine) military.


    Please link your sources.


    Moderna (mRNA) safer than Pfizer/ AstraZeneca. AFAIK the risks at the moment look at though mRNA vaccines are a bit better than AstraZeneca (for risk) and also better for protection against serious delta disease.But I don't think either of those judgements is clear and various things can modulate them. If you are older than 50 then the natural blood clot rate is so much higher than any safety signal from the AstraZeneca vaccine why worry? Pfizer vs Moderna - Pfizer has a much larger vaccinated population - tracked over a longer time - so while Moderna might be less risky I don't think we can know yet.


    In any case all these risks are small compared with the risk of getting COVID delta for anyone over 18. Yes - I can make risk statements without linking sources juts like W! If you reckon you will never catch delta with a very high confidence - it is personally a smart decision not to get vaccinated. Otherwise the equation is:


    (1) What are the risks of getting delta, multiplied by the risk of bad things if you get delta

    (2) What are the risks of the vaccine


    That is if you forget the collective effect (i.e. you are supremely selfish). Thus


    • Suppose the overall risk to you of dying from COVID, if you get it unvaccinated, is 0.1%.
    • If nearly everyone gets vaccinated it may be that the risk of you getting COVID, if unvaccinated, is only 10%.
    • Your overall risk is 0.01%.
    • If you suppose the vaccine risk (for you) is 0.02% then under these assumptions, personally, if risk averse, you should choose COVID over the vaccine.


    Now suppose most other people follow you. In that case the vaccination rate will be low, the assumption that you are only 10% likely to catch COVID breaks, and your personal COVID risk goes up 5X higher than the vaccine risk - you should take the vaccine.


    Ideally you want everyone else to bear the 0,02% risk of the vaccine, so that you do not need to.


    In addition there is the indirect future personal risk from variants. Again this depends on behaviour of others. But, if the COVID rate is higher, nasty new variants are more likely to emerge.


    Personally I think it is smart to lump the indirect collective risk in with the personal one. Don't assume it will work with you being uniquely selfish. It certainly does not seem to have done so in some US States.


    Most people would hate me for posting the above because while there are cases where the vaccine risk can be higher than the COVID risk that is unusual. For most people the COVID risk is so much larger than the vaccine risk this game theory problem does not come up. Go and get vaccinated. Psychology is not like maths. People hesitate to get vaccinated if you mention any vaccine risk - in spite of teh fact that COVID risk is obviosuly higehr. I linked a paper to that effect a while ago. You can see why the authorities do not spend all of their time talking about mathematical risks - especially because these are uncertain (both of COVID and the vaccine). You can also see why this is such a multi-layered and difficult decision that you need to be supremely arrogant (stupid?) to go against medical advice.


    Finally - if like 30% of the US population you distrust FDC and get your information on risks from social media, scare stories, and fringe websites, or you rate all people who sound like experts as equal and navigate arguments by taking an exact middle position (Shane I'm thinking of you) - I'm sorry - you will not be in a position to make the wisest choices.


    THH

  • Fauci.."I'm not sure what you're talking about Senator"

    Physician's fault... can't communicate properly?

    'He's Not Going To Answer The Question': GOP Senator Presses Fauci On COVID-19 Origin Theory

    External Content www.youtube.com
    Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.
    Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.

    Wow - RB do you really rate these US neo-republicans with anti-science rhetoric?