On the other hand, the UK has ~71% vaccinated plus some large percent of acquired immunity, yet infections continue at a high rate. I have no idea why.
Lack of V-D! Vaccination gives 0 protection for an infection and does not contribute to herd immunity at all.
The only no CoV-19 place on earth with high natural infection around 80% is 3/4 of India. The vaccine only control group of Kerala/Mizoram faces the same problems.
Merck sees the writing on the wall from latest India studies that merckmectin isn't all it's cracked up to be but the FDA will approve a med that they already paid 1.4 billion to develope a drug that was already set to be trialed for flu. Can't wait to see how they spin it
Big pharma has launched a concentrated effort to discredit old Ivermectin studies for prophylaxis. Also swprs.org suddenly did start to push fact-less big pharma crap online.
I had a discussion with them, that made it clear they are bought (by FM/R) now.
So please try to understand what Dr.Campell a 100% neutral double vaxxed Dr. says about this.
Repost from FM1: https://youtu.be/zy7c_FHiEac
One leading disinformation blogger
Dr Kyle Sheldrick is Managing Director of Merunova. As a medical doctor (with experience treating back pain patients) and medical scientist, he led the early development of Decay Variance.
So young leading pharma people hire/ guide students to commit fraud in favor of large companies.
Lack of V-D! Vaccination gives 0 protection for an infection and does not contribute to herd immunity at all.
Wyttenfact. False
On the other hand, the UK has ~71% vaccinated plus some large percent of acquired immunity, yet infections continue at a high rate. I have no idea why. Thank goodness deaths are well below where they were before.
The UK rates have been stable through Summer with absence of lockdown, almost no mask-wearing, schools open as normal.
The reason we do not see exponential increase is we have herd immunity for the vaccinated age groups
The reason we see continued infections is very high infection rates in schools where there is no or little vaccination. The infection rate peaks at about 1 in 10 at an age of 12 or 13. So children are driving the infection which spreads out from them to the rest of the community.
We have (recently) started vaccinating 12-15 year olds, but do not have high rate there yet (in many places only 40% want vaccination., that will not be enough).
Even without vaccination at this ultra-high infection rate schools will in the end become immune, but it will take a few months.
I had a discussion with them, that made it clear they are bought (by FM/R) now.
bought (by FM/R)
translation from Wyttenspeak
Did not accept Wyttenfacts as true.
Israel update:: Despite close to now 4 mio. boosters, the number of serious cases in hospitals does not fall sharply. There are still 400 booster and new victims treated in ICU.
The are also still > 2000 cases/day what may have the same origin as in UK. Excess infections in Pfizer immune suppressed vaccinated.
Also interesting to note is that UK stopped to publish new vaccine reports.
The findings (no vaccine protection for age 80+ high number excess infections in vaccinated only) by us and others did certainly trigger many red lights.
So let's wait for the concentrated UK counter propaganda. And also how they explain and correct their faked natural immunity data!
Remember:: These idiots did claims that the dirt cheap blood donor samples would give a good (correct) picture....
Here a famous nonsense (fake facts) from swprs:: Die Delta-Welle endete in Indien im Juni; es ist daher keine Übersterblichkeit mehr zu erwarten.
The delta wave in India stopped in June....
But only in states with Ziverdoo treatment. Tamil Nadu waited an other 6 weeks and did struggle for 2 more months. Kerala has a never ending wave....
This is what FM/R bougt idiots propagate world wide in parallel, in sponsored forums...
Obviously FM/R controls tons on jumping jacks on this planet. Also here we have two of them that favor ad hominem's with no facts added. Simply disgusting folks.
And also how they explain and correct their faked natural immunity data!
You have not explained in any way your natural immunity Wyttenfact, whereas the ONS reports have a detailed discussion with references justifying their number.?
And I have two ways to calculate my number (one following the report data, the other using the raw ONS infection survey data).
I've actually never heard how you calculate 50% with natural (covid-prior-infection) immunity?
(no vaccine protection for age 80+ high number excess infections in vaccinated only)
Base rate fallacy + UK ultra-high vaccination rate for this age cohort ( nearly 100%)?
Display MoreEarlier this year, experts were saying that herd immunity with the Delta variant might require 80% or 90% immunity (acquired plus vaccinated). It seems to me the latest data shows that the numbers might be lower. ~70% might be enough. I recall ~70% is what they were saying for Alpha last year. Look at the data from three places with high vaccination rates:
Chile, 88% vaccination (+10% acquired immunity?)
Japan, 70% (very little acquired immunity)
Argentina, 60% (+10% acquired immunity?)
All three are rapidly approaching zero infections and deaths. They might not reach that, falling asymptotically, because there will be infections from outside these countries. But I think that if 80% the entire world population could be vaccinated, with no large pockets below 70% (the Argentine rate), the disease would be wiped out in the human population. I do not think that will happen, but only because right wing politicians are stupid and they will save $1 even if it later costs them $100,000. There is no technical reason why the disease cannot be eliminated.
https://graphics.reuters.com/w…es-and-territories/chile/
https://graphics.reuters.com/w…es-and-territories/japan/
https://graphics.reuters.com/w…nd-territories/argentina/
In the U.S. 56% of the total population is vaccinated, but the unvaccinated people are heavily concentrated in rural Republican districts where the population is older than average, so they will be infected at a high rate. In some rural districts only 30% are vaccinated. I expect ~25% of the population will ultimately refuse. That's 83 million people. Unless they change their minds, this will continue until ~40 million of them are infected and ~800,000 die. That should take 2 or 3 years at present rates. Another 800,000 will be damaged for life with things like cerebral hemorrhages or lung damage leaving them in wheelchairs with oxygen for life. Four groups of people are guilty of this holocaust: the Republican Party, FOX News, the Death Cult antivaxxers such as W. and Mark U., and the people who will themselves die because they refuse to be vaccinated. Fortunately for the nation, Republicans are dying at a ratio of 5:1 compared to Democrats.
Here is an example of a pathetic, foolish, uneducated person who died because the Republicans, FOX News and antivaxxers lied to her. The blood is on their hands:
I don't know, but here is what I'd guess:
Japan - although cities are crowded tehr eis very good adherence to mask-wearing and other social distancing measures. Good compliance with self-isolation. Also effective track-and-trace
Uk - no social distancing. V ineffective track-and-trace (it has always been so). Poor compliance with self-isolation (many people cannot afford to do this). No masks in schools, which are at the moment spreading COVID. No measures taken to increase ventilation in schools.
THH
On the other hand, the UK has ~71% vaccinated plus some large percent of acquired immunity, yet infections continue at a high rate. I have no idea why.
Simple. It's because the government has been suggesting 'it's all over, go out and spend money' and they are doing that.
Here in Ontario, as of Sept 22 2021 proof of double vaccination and ID are required to get into many venues.
On October 22 2021 the double vaccination proof and ID will be folded into the form of a QR code. So much more efficient, to weed out those human biological undesirables!
I thought those dates chosen were interesting, seeing the dates of Sept 11 (2001) and March 11 (2020 ; WHO declares Pandemic).
The public is encouraged to report on any business not enforcing the Vax proof and ID policy. The businesses are then subject to potentially massive fines and shutdown. So we have the government getting the public to work for them. How efficient! And what a committed citizenry, working for the collective good, that they are willing to snitch on neighbours and businesses alike.
Knock knock
Ontario Citizen : Who's there?
We're from the government and we're here to help.
Ontario Citizen : Thank God! We're saved!
In Canada we had our Thanksgiving Holiday yesterday, Monday October 11th.
The unified message rang out from public health officials, mayors and others :
If sharing Thanksgiving with others, restrict it to immediate family only.
Raise the uncomfortable subject of vaccination status, and if anyone is not fully vaccinated, have them physically distance from others in the home, mask, and open the windows.
Happy Thanksgiving to all, from Canada.
Here in Ontario, as of Sept 22 2021 proof of double vaccination and ID are required to get into many venues.
Good. I wouldn't go to an indoor restaurant that allows in unvaccinated people, and I sure wouldn't fly on an airplane. It is about time the government steps in and protects us from these bio-terrorists who would infect us and kill themselves. Suicide terrorists.
Display MoreHere in Ontario, as of Sept 22 2021 proof of double vaccination and ID are required to get into many venues.
On October 22 2021 the double vaccination proof and ID will be folded into the form of a QR code. So much more efficient, to weed out those human biological undesirables!
I thought those dates chosen were interesting, seeing the dates of Sept 11 (2001) and March 11 (2020 ; WHO declares Pandemic).
The public is encouraged to report on any business not enforcing the Vax proof and ID policy. The businesses are then subject to potentially massive fines and shutdown. So we have the government getting the public to work for them. How efficient! And what a committed citizenry, working for the collective good, that they are willing to snitch on neighbours and businesses alike.
Knock knock
Ontario Citizen : Who's there?
We're from the government and we're here to help.
Ontario Citizen : Thank God! We're saved!
In Canada we had our Thanksgiving Holiday yesterday, Monday October 11th.
The unified message rang out from public health officials, mayors and others :
If sharing Thanksgiving with others, restrict it to immediate family only.
Raise the uncomfortable subject of vaccination status, and if anyone is not fully vaccinated, have them physically distance from others in the home, mask, and open the windows.
Happy Thanksgiving to all, from Canada.
These things are all a matter of balance.
If somone was carrying a known deadly highly infectious pathogen with no cure you would probably not want to allow them on a plane, or in a club... In fact you would want them quarantined. If there was a vaccine that provided 100% protection you would let them out after they were vaccinated.
So where is the level of risk below which you reckon individual freedom trumps public safety?
In the case of COVID, infection is not certain (it is 1 in 10, at the moment, in the UK for children aged 12). And COVID is only 1% fatal, or 0.1% if you are vaccinated - that probability varying enormously with your age.
But, as a matter of principle, if you accept public safety sometime trumps individual freedom (a lot) then it is juts a matter of balance.
As an antivaxxer my guess is you don't believe the figures in this balance that most would accept. You would have lower infection protection from the vaccine. You would maybe claim that spreading covid is less dangerous individually, or to society. You would also reckon that strong inducements for people to get vaccinated (which such rules are) are immoral because the vaccine is dangerous, or something (I don't know which current story you support on that).
Those are all your judgments of this complex situation - many others will have different judgments. Your judgments would perhaps be different if you had normal estimates of various probabilities rather than antivaxxer meme informed judgments.
THH
PS - I'm not much in favour of vaccine passports. Coercion, even to get people to do something desirable, often does more harm than good long-term. I'd accept they are sometimes needed for the safety of other people, to get people out again, and make the test in that case vaccination or an antibody test.
Happy Thanksgiving to all, from Canada.
Canada is ruled by an outraging cricket brain level free mason's mafia.... So time to get rid of these criminals.
It is about time the government steps in and protects us from these bio-terrorists who would infect us and kill themselves.
As we know from UK data. The vaccinated gene therapy treated age 40..80 are the true Bio terrorists that spread 3x more than unvaccinated. So only vaccinated with a recovered status should be allowed in trains, planes etc...
UK: All Cov-19 pandemic parameters (deaths, hospitalizations) tend upwards despite > 78% vaccination among age >12...
The UK incidence rate is 363 Switzerland is 75 with quite a bit less but better (2/3 Moderna) vaccination.
I hope natural immunity will show up soon!
Israel update:: Despite close to now 4 mio. boosters, the number of serious cases in hospitals does not fall sharply. There are still 400 booster and new victims treated in ICU.
Speaking of Israel and hospitals, and recalling Jed saying that the unvaccinated are bioterrorists, here is a detective story of a July Covid outbreak in an Israeli hopsital, originating from a double vaccinated person admitted for cardiac issues, and spread to fully vaccinated patients with comorbidities and to masked, vaccinated staff.
Meir Medical Center has 780 beds, most rooms accommodate three to four patients, 1 m apart with separation curtain partitions between beds. Starting in March 2020, patients have been encouraged to wear surgical masks. Although use was inconsistent, it was enforced during patient–staff encounters for both sides. On the dedicated COVID-19 ward, dedicated staff members worked with full personal protective equipment (PPE): N-95 mask, face shield, gown, gloves and hair cover.
...
Of the 42 cases diagnosed in this outbreak, 38 were fully vaccinated with two doses of the Comirnaty vaccine, one was recovered with one vaccination and three were unvaccinated. The median age was 55 years (interquartile range (IQR): 36–77.5) and 24 were female. Twenty-three were patients, 16 staff members and three family members. The median time from second vaccine dose to breakthrough infection was 177 days (range 111–194). On the day of diagnosis, only 24 individuals were symptomatic, but in the following days, 36 had become symptomatic. All staff (median age: 33 years; range: 22–48) remained asymptomatic or with mild disease. Among the patients (median age: 77 years; range: 42–93; median time from second vaccine dose to infection: 176 days; range: 143-188), eight became severely ill, six critically ill and five of the critically ill died (Table). The patient population was considerably older than staff and all patients had comorbidities: diabetes mellitus (n = 9), hypertension (n = 16), ischemic heart disease (n = 12), congestive heart failure (n = 7), dementia (n = 5), body mass index > 30 (n = 8), chronic renal failure (n = 11) of whom six were on dialysis. Eight patients were immunocompromised.
Display MoreSpeaking of Israel and hospitals, and recalling Jed saying that the unvaccinated are bioterrorists, here is a detective story of a July Covid outbreak in an Israeli hopsital, originating from a double vaccinated person admitted for cardiac issues, and spread to fully vaccinated patients with comorbidities and to masked, vaccinated staff.
https://www.eurosurveillance.o…917.ES.2021.26.39.2100822
Meir Medical Center has 780 beds, most rooms accommodate three to four patients, 1 m apart with separation curtain partitions between beds. Starting in March 2020, patients have been encouraged to wear surgical masks. Although use was inconsistent, it was enforced during patient–staff encounters for both sides. On the dedicated COVID-19 ward, dedicated staff members worked with full personal protective equipment (PPE): N-95 mask, face shield, gown, gloves and hair cover.
...
Of the 42 cases diagnosed in this outbreak, 38 were fully vaccinated with two doses of the Comirnaty vaccine, one was recovered with one vaccination and three were unvaccinated. The median age was 55 years (interquartile range (IQR): 36–77.5) and 24 were female. Twenty-three were patients, 16 staff members and three family members. The median time from second vaccine dose to breakthrough infection was 177 days (range 111–194). On the day of diagnosis, only 24 individuals were symptomatic, but in the following days, 36 had become symptomatic. All staff (median age: 33 years; range: 22–48) remained asymptomatic or with mild disease. Among the patients (median age: 77 years; range: 42–93; median time from second vaccine dose to infection: 176 days; range: 143-188), eight became severely ill, six critically ill and five of the critically ill died (Table). The patient population was considerably older than staff and all patients had comorbidities: diabetes mellitus (n = 9), hypertension (n = 16), ischemic heart disease (n = 12), congestive heart failure (n = 7), dementia (n = 5), body mass index > 30 (n = 8), chronic renal failure (n = 11) of whom six were on dialysis. Eight patients were immunocompromised.
I am glad you are taking an interest in these details, which always matter. This paper shows how easily delta will spread in a nursing home, even when most people are vaccinated.
The headline conclusions here are that in situations with high exposure (as in an unventilated nursing home outbreak), neither vaccination nor face masks prevent some spread of infection, especially in old populations where immune systems work less well. In this case, the patient population had big risk factors:
of the exposed patients 20% caught COVID and 5% died.
of those who died 2 were 90-99, two were 80-89, one was 70-79 we do not know how many of those who died were immunocompromised.
I guess some people in the US have some weird idea that vaccination prevents spread of delta (which it was not designed to do - being tested originally against original COVID - we are very lucky it has any effect against delta).
This is one of those poisonous memes where the imperfection of the vaccine is seen as the pharma companies lying about their product, and the trials being fixed.
(1) the trials were not fixed. The vaccine is exactly that effective against original COVID for the demographic in the trials
(2) we know that delta moves goalposts. The US govt seems to have been slow to realise this, but everyone else did.
(3) we also know that vaccines work less well for older people - although other evidence (can't tell from original trials, or this paper) shows they are still highly effective at stopping serious disease and death.
One difference for delta, as this paper makes clear, is that it allows high viral loads in the nasal passages of vaccinated people - understandable since the vaccine provides protection for the rest of the body and limited protection for nasal passages where specialised mucal antibodies would normally do most of the work.
I expect this paper is what antivaxxers here claim shows the vaccines kill people. In this case 5, mostly very very old, people died. They were probably in a very bad condition re comorbidities (all patients here had some comorbidities - some would have had multiple severe comorbidities). We do not have an exact assessment so cannot use the data here to determine vaccine effectiveness against serious disease and death generally, even in old people, except that some will die. We knew that already.
We cannot say from this data what is the overall vaccine efficacy against infection in this case. One thing worth remembering: vaccine efficacy is an average over all exposures. we would expect fewer infections (for both vaccinated and unvaccinated) form lower exposures. We might also expect the vaccine to be more effective (as ratio of infections vaccinated / unvaccinated) at lower exposures than at very high exposures.
We can't be sure but with infected staff and patients in close proximity indoors with maybe not good ventilation, this was a high exposure scenario.
Antivaxxers like to set up straw men (the vaccine always works) and then show they are not true. The point is that individually even a 50% protection against serious illness is a very big win - the vaccine looks like 5X even for old people 6 months on from vaccination.
Again, antivaxxers take cases like this, where infection happens in people who are vaccinated, and assume from this that therefore the vaccination gives no protection against infection. We know the protection goes down for older people, and for long time from vaccination. But overall it is still well worth having (from the point of view of society and reducing R). We know that from other work that lets us quantify efficacy even 6 months after vaccination. Efficacy against infection goes down with age, and with time from vaccination, so for these patients it may be pretty low. But efficacy against infection is mostly a matter for society, and averages count.
There may be a few personal cases where personal protection from infection is vital - e.g. a carer. The vaccines look to be helping at least a bit with that, in most cases, but no guarantee at all. There have never been guarantees with COVID.
And masks are of course no guarantee, even a 20% reduction in transmission wearing masks is a big plus for those people not infected, and society overall. The evidence is for more than 20% reduction.
I hope natural immunity will show up soon!
Natural immunity is already there, helping, but just like vaccine immunity it is imperfect. From the antivaxxers-love-it Israeli case study that mark U posted:
Of the 42 cases diagnosed in this outbreak, 38 were fully vaccinated with two doses of the Comirnaty vaccine, one was recovered with one vaccination and three were unvaccinated
One recovered => should have natural immunity.
Hoping that natural immunity will show up is perhaps hoping that lots of unprotected people will get covid?
I sort of agree - but for their sakes I'd wish they got vaccinated! And for everyone;'s sake it is faster to get vaccinated than wait till you randomly get COVID and again randomly maybe die.
Of the 42 cases diagnosed in this outbreak, 38 were fully vaccinated with two doses of the Comirnaty vaccine, one was recovered with one vaccination and three were unvaccinated.
Interesting to see that the people marked unvaccinated did develop only mild symptoms... As UK data shows the group 80+ has now at most a marginal 10..30% protection from vaccines. A death rate of 5% among double vaxx clearly shows that no protection is left over.
Interesting to see that the people marked unvaccinated did develop only mild symptoms... As UK data shows the group 80+ has now at most a marginal 10..30% protection from vaccines. A death rate of 5% among double vaxx clearly shows that no protection is left over.
This one is not base rate fallacy, it is vulnerable get vaccinated effect.
And what is clear in a Wyttenfactian sense is very unclear to any normal scientist. to show vaccine protection against infection we'd need to align vaccinated and unvaccinated cases, and compensate for age and comorbidities. There are not enough unvaccinated here for that to be possible, not enough detailed information about age and comorbidities. To show protection against death again we would need to compare vaccinated death rate with unvaccinated death rate, compensating for age and comorbidities: again not enough information. All we do know is that the unquantified comorbidities are very significant (because we have the overall figures for them).
On the bright side - there is more than enough information to WyttenInfer a few Wyttenfacts - that is good to know and must be a consolation for those who do not like uncertainty.
