QuoteVaccines do protect against infection. See the data from Japan, for example: That decline is from vaccines.
What I can see are five waves, each of which declined spontaneously (first three ones apparently without any support of vaccine) and each of them was higher than previous one (correlation with vaccination levels is positive instead of negative).
Can You try to explain your stance, which looks quite ultramundane for me?
1. mRNA COVID vaccines cannot affect DNA. They are not "gene therapy."
In medicine, cancer therapy, both DNA and RNA action is called gene therapy. Genes produce RNA. Everything that induces an action that is identical to a gene action is called gene therapy.
You obviously mix up gene therapy with gene edition - a very special gene therapy..
2. They do protect against infection. See the data from Japan, for example:
It's even worse as the recent UK data shows, Vaccinated age 400..80 now get more often CoV-19 than unvaccinated. The initial protection e.g. seen from Pfizer is a side effect of the Pfizer induced immune suppression that eliminates the most vulnerable (1.2%) after the first jab.
ccines reduce the likelihood of spreading the virus.
This is a wrong conclusion made by students only. You spread the most virus 1 day before symptoms onset later you isolate and do not spread virus. Only mucosa can spread virus, not virus that replicate in the body.
What I can see are five waves, each of which declined spontaneously (first three ones apparently without any support of vaccine) and each of them was higher than previous one (correlation with vaccination levels is positive instead of negative).
Nope. The waves were caused by known events, such as slackening off on the partial lockdowns. The largest one at the end was caused by the Delta variant. Delta also caused spikes in S. Korea and Taiwan, which resemble Japan in the public health measures, monitoring and so on.
Can You try to explain your stance, which looks quite ultramundane for me?
The rapid fall of the last (Delta) spike corresponds to a rapid increase in vaccinations. Vaccinations lagged, reaching only a small number of people. The Delta peak came on August 27, 2021. A few weeks before that, vaccinations began increasing rapidly, to about 1 million per day. Also, people started to become afraid in August, so they went back to voluntary lockdowns. Many observers thought the Olympics -- which ended on August 8 -- contributed to the August peak. I don't know about that. I have some doubts. But there were many news reports of cancelled events in August as the numbers increased.
Deaths peaked on September 3. In the Reuters graph below, you can see that that Delta peak of deaths was much lower than the previous peaks, even though the Delta infection peak was much higher. That is because by August many elderly people were already vaccinated. Vaccinated people were only about 20% of the total population, but they were old people, plus doctors, nurses, pharmacists and other healthcare workers.
Specifically, they stated that both critical public health-related agencies are ignoring pleas from Dr. Patricia Lee to investigate the catastrophic effects of the COVID-19 vaccines on some of her patients.
Pill and kill then bill....the oath of plutocracy...
Tai, whose research shows that vaccinated persons will have a considerable amount of antibodies living in their mucosal membranes (mouth and nose), which are the two main points of entry. With this knowledge, Tai said that a vaccinated person who sneezes or coughs would most likely be less infectious.
This is most likely a made up piece. All studies so far did clearly show that the gene therapies do not produce nasal (mucosal) Ig-A/ Ig-G. So this is only possible if they look at vaccinated with a prior infection.
It also 100% contradicts with what we see in the field.
Obviously this sentence explains it: "In all these cases where you have these big breakthrough infections, there's always unvaccinated people in the room," he says. 100% made up! See Israel case 2G parties etc...
The thing you have to bear in mind regarding the graphs from Japan is that those peaks are small compared to other countries. The Delta peak on August 27 was 22,000 infections. The population of the U.S. is 2.6 times that of Japan, so that is the equivalent of 57,000 cases per day in the U.S. Nearly every day from July 2020 to the present, the U.S. has had far more cases than that. In other words, the worst day of the pandemic in Japan is about the same as an ordinary day in the U.S. The U.S. peaked at 250,000 cases in one day in January, and 190,000 in the Delta peak of September 1. It is presently at 89,000 per day. If you graphed Japan and the U.S. on the same scale per capita, there would be hardly any "peaks" in Japan. Just a few minor increases that were quickly squelched. In other words, it looks like things are under control.
The events that caused those previous peaks were all known, as I said. Not just known; they were hotly debated in the mass media. The biggest controversy was the Olympics. Many protesters asked: "Do we really need this?" People said the Olympics were contributing to the Delta spike. There was no audience allowed into the stadiums during the games, but the protesters and the mass media claimed that people were gathering in bars and houses and watching the Olympics on TV. That seemed a little strange to me. Who would do that? No one I personally know. But anyway, part of the spike was blamed on that. Everyone knew that the main cause was Delta. While this was happening, I thought public health officials seemed a little too confident. Almost sanguine. "Nothing to see here, folks. We have this under control." It turns out they did have it under control. I have to hand it to them. Deaths stayed low, and the vaccine rollout went into high gear. The curve began to fall rapidly, as you see.
The following examples illustrate how the relative risk and the relative risk reduction remain at 50% as the ARR with higher sensitivity decreases from 30% to 10%
This only works ... in a real trial. Not so for Pfizer that did kick out 300 CoV-19 infected from the vaccine group. Under a pandemic condition Pfizer fails for 1000%. It only works if there are no CoV-19 virus around the corner!
Further 97% of all deaths come from age >75. But Pfizer tested only up to age 75... So the Pfizer protection figures are fictive - only "valid" for people that need no protection at all.
Latest data shows that you overall need 50 vaccinations to prevent 1 hospitalization this mutates -best case - into 500 vaccinations needed to prevent 1 death.... No more comments.... 2000 vaccinations are needed to produce at least 1 vaccine cripple. Here we talk of the whole population.
Of course you need 50'000 vaccinations to prevent one death age < 50 and thus produce 25 cripples and almost 1 vaccine death....
Display MoreNot in Canada, I don't know about the USA:
https://immunize.ca/immunization-mandatory-canada
"Immunizations are not mandatory in Canada"
That is still inconclusive:
Shedding of Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Despite Vaccination
https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…101/2021.07.31.21261387v4
Not peer reviewed yet but even in Ontario at least they recognize that the evidence is still unclear.
https://www.publichealthontari…ated-cases.pdf?sc_lang=en
"Infections in vaccinated individuals are less severe and more likely to be
asymptomatic, but the risk of onward transmission of infection from fully vaccinated individuals is unclear"
So again I say. I am pro-vax but I do not believe in making coercive, mandatory vaccination policies and infringing on peoples' rights based on unclear evidence
I applaud you for understanding the difference between buying Nike shoes and forcing Nike shoes on the population.
In Canada they are having individuals do enforcement, thereby having them break several laws to implement vaccine passports. I went into the Police station today and asked them about this. The officer at the front was unsure of this new information. She was nice, but green.
Facts:
Every individual enforcing entry into an establishment by asking for vaccine verification is acting as a Public Officer (not a Police Officer). That means they are under Federal Jurisdiction.
If an individual were to enforce entry into an establishment based on a vaccine passport various Criminal actions occur
a) Requesting private medical information is a violation of the Right to Privacy in the Canadian Charter.
b) Privacy is also guaranteed by the Bill of Rights sections 1(a) the right of the individual to life, liberty, security of person
c) Enforcing a discriminatory practice goes against section 1(b) the right of the individual to equality before the law and the protection of the law
d) Genetic discrimination is against the law as per Bill S-201. The gene therapies are a modification of genetics (a foreign gene intervention) and therefore we are asking people for proof of this gene intervention.
Mass criminality is going on. Other criminal actions are extortion and coercion (do this or else) and public incitement of hate (yes, it is real and may be used for more oppressive actions in the future -- and many Towne Criers on this board do it as a matter of course).
Later., the elder police officer started talking to me and it was a long deep conversation. "We are in the same position, we have families to feed, but when I go home I have a family and I am worried for them...this is going to get a lot worse, they are going to have us check passports before they can come into the station." He was basically telegraphing this is going far. At least in this area they said they aren't enforcing any kind of passport stuff or calls.
He in effect said they know this is wrong, they even know that this is causing criminality, but that are in the same position (internal people are being forced into taking jab for jobs). He was in agreement, this is the fight of our generation. But sadly, he said "we know .but we can't do anything....we are a government agency we do what we are told you have to go to the source."
Breakthrough infections might not be as contagious as previously thought
After then we have reports from two clubs 1, 2, stuffed with fully vaccinated persons and checked for vaccination passports, who got all infected during single event as a single man...
Could you imagine what would have happended in such a discothek a year ago? No vaccine, one person infected, people packed, dancing, singing, celebrating, drinking and talking without distance...? Do you remember Ischgl? I think, wihtout being vaccinated you would have seen a super spreader event with 380 infections in Münster...today 86 out of 380 infected, all with mild and no symptons at all....
In a previous editorial, I posed the question: Should We Criminalize Public Health Authorities, Politicians, & Employers Who Spread Misinformation about Vaccine Mandates? The editorial touched a nerve, and positive feedback was immediate from people looking for a way to resist the COVID-19 vaccine mandates. In the present editorial, I provide evidence for a legal case against those who spread misinformation and enforce COVID-19 vaccine mandates that mislead and harm employees and the public. The evidence will show that the approximate 95% vaccine efficacy claimed for the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines is misleading and does not reveal the whole truth about vaccine efficacy.
This is an interesting new idea from the antivax TSN. We should criminalise anyone using the politically wrong words to talk about COVID? Really? And who is to judge what is misleading when things like efficacy of a vaccine against delta are so vague (put like that) and depend so much on other factors? RB here is not talking about false statements, he is talking about misleading by presenting only partial truth. Which he wants to criminalise.
I mean, the antivaxxers blatantly lie about all sorts of things, but no-one here wants to lock W up.
Vaccinated age 400..80 now get more often CoV-19 than unvaccinated.
Base rate fallacy + vulnerable get vaccinated + denominator error on subtracting two large numbers. W has never yet told me how he calculates the subcohort number of unvaccinated - given the report he is referring to points out that this number is highly innacurate and should therefore not be used for quantitative comparisons.
Three math issues all related to one Wyttenfact. It is a tough world there.
I applaud you for understanding the difference between buying Nike shoes and forcing Nike shoes on the population.
Let us just make this analogy a bit more accurate, as applied to compulsory vaccine passports and night clubs (which we have in the UK).
Much more precise is to say they are like requiring anyone he wants to visit a cold meat processing plant to wear suitable protective clothes to minimise the chance that they would inadvertently contaminate the meat.
I guess most people would say that is fair - and not an unreasonable restriction of liberty?
That is the trouble with this debate. You need to get to the bottom of why different people make different judgments about what is reasonable. Plausible analogies are not arguments.
I am still myself a bit on the fence about these on a risk (of increasing vaccine hesitancy) vs benefit analysis. Just not sure overall what they will do.
THH
Having established that the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines have ultralow efficacy in preventing infections with at least one mild or moderate symptom in clinical trials, how is it possible that the vaccines can prevent severe infections, hospitalizations, and deaths within the general public? Such claims are based on observational evidence of large numbers of healthy people within the general public who received the mRNA vaccines and who avoided severe infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.
But this evidence is not causative, and the evidence is flawed by selection bias. For example, to study clinical trial endpoints of severe infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, participants in a vaccine trial must be selected who are at greater risk for these conditions than healthy people. No such vaccine trials exist, and the claims cannot be substantiated.
I just want to point out the total scientific illiteracy of Ron Brown (TSN)'s argument here.
It is true that clinical trials give evidence about protection of healthy people, and protection of the most vulnerable (which will be relatively more important for whole population death reduction) may be less, because by definition vulnerable people have immune systems that work less well. Of course that is not clear, it may in fact be more, for the same reason.
Ironically again, although RR reduction may be less for those vulnerable groups, AR reduction will certainly be more, because the absolute risks for them are so much higher. And AR, not RR, is Ron Brown's preferred risk measure!
More importantly for me (the AR vs RR distinction is semantics that Ron Brown uses becaue it makes risks sound smaller, it is not a real thing) we have a better way to determine whole population risk reduction. we can look at the change in IFR for a country such as the UK or Japan between when the population is wholly vaccinated and when it is not.
The good effect of the vaccines is so large and obvious on whole population scale it is really difficult to understand what is going on in Ron Brown's mind. Has he selected his antivax memes and concentrated on them so hard he can ignore all contrary evidence? That type of tunnel vision is quite common? Or is he blatantly lying, saying what he needs to promote a specific political view? I cannot decide which. Whichever, I find him quite annoying because I like to think that getting a PhD provides decent transferable training in how to crtically appraise anything. Not always true - in the sense that people can be biased on specific topics whatever the training. I know that includes me - and so fight against it - I guess from his certitude and selective attention Ron Brown does not realise it might include him too.
THH
Display MoreFacts:
Every individual enforcing entry into an establishment by asking for vaccine verification is acting as a Public Officer (not a Police Officer). That means they are under Federal Jurisdiction.
If an individual were to enforce entry into an establishment based on a vaccine passport various Criminal actions occur
a) Requesting private medical information is a violation of the Right to Privacy in the Canadian Charter.b) Privacy is also guaranteed by the Bill of Rights sections 1(a) the right of the individual to life, liberty, security of person
c) Enforcing a discriminatory practice goes against section 1(b) the right of the individual to equality before the law and the protection of the law
d) Genetic discrimination is against the law as per Bill S-201. The gene therapies are a modification of genetics (a foreign gene intervention) and therefore we are asking people for proof of this gene intervention.
d) false - and desperate. Genes are DNA. RNA is not that, or HIV would be regarded as something that modifies genetics (it is not).
a),b),c) - the law is sometimes an ass, but usually has lots of grey areas. There are already circumstances where some vaccinations are mandated, which do not fall foul of the law, so I guess the question is one for the lawyers. Or maybe most lawyers would say there is no real case, and this is just something made up by the antivaxxers?
THH
Display MoreI just want to point out the total scientific illiteracy of Ron Brown (TSN)'s argument here.
It is true that clinical trials give evidence about protection of healthy people, and protection of the most vulnerable (which will be relatively more important for whole population death reduction) may be less, because by definition vulnerable people have immune systems that work less well. Of course that is not clear, it may in fact be more, for the same reason.
Ironically again, although RR reduction may be less for those vulnerable groups, AR reduction will certainly be more, because the absolute risks for them are so much higher. And AR, not RR, is Ron Brown's preferred risk measure!
More importantly for me (the AR vs RR distinction is semantics that Ron Brown uses becaue it makes risks sound smaller, it is not a real thing) we have a better way to determine whole population risk reduction. we can look at the change in IFR for a country such as the UK or Japan between when the population is wholly vaccinated and when it is not.
The good effect of the vaccines is so large and obvious on whole population scale it is really difficult to understand what is going on in Ron Brown's mind. Has he selected his antivax memes and concentrated on them so hard he can ignore all contrary evidence? That type of tunnel vision is quite common? Or is he blatantly lying, saying what he needs to promote a specific political view? I cannot decide which. Whichever, I find him quite annoying because I like to think that getting a PhD provides decent transferable training in how to crtically appraise anything. Not always true - in the sense that people can be biased on specific topics whatever the training. I know that includes me - and so fight against it - I guess from his certitude and selective attention Ron Brown does not realise it might include him too.
THH
So now you are claiming to be smarter than an expert . Are you Thomas?
Don’t Tread on Me’: Did Airline Employees Create a Southwest Shutdown-Showdown?
Southwest Airlines has been rocked by on-the-ground turbulence after canceling more than 2,000 flights since Friday, Oct. 8. Many passengers were left stranded, and videos circulated the internet of passengers who grew outraged with how the airline chose to handle the situation and the way, or lack thereof, they accommodated their delayed passengers. Southwest Airlines and the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association have since denied the swirling rumor that there was a “sick-out” performed by airline employees as their way to strike against the COVID-19 vaccine mandate. However, the coincidental timing of events makes it almost effortless to question what is really going on behind closed doors-especially when no other airline seemed to have a major disruption due to weather.
Timeline of events leading up to the Southwest calamity:
Although this media platform primarily focuses on biomedical and health research during COVID times the topics we address expand to follow the pandemic’s social, economic, and political fallout. TrialSite provides a chronology of events to help the reader better understand the situation”
Sept. 9
President Joe Biden addresses the nation saying, ”We’ve been patient but our patience is wearing thin and your refusal has cost all of us.” He then issues several executive orders such as Executive Order 14042 for federal contractors and Executive Order 14043 for federal employees. Biden announced that the Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) would be issuing an emergency rule that requires all private-sector employers with 100 or more employees to require their employees to get vaccinated for COVID-19 or submit to weekly COVID-19 testing. If a covered employer fails to comply with emergency rules, it could result in enforcement action and fines from OSHA. Take note that there is no mentioning of private-sector employers with over 100 employees in Executive Order 14042 or Executive Order 14043, OSHA is who Biden wants to enforce this. As of Oct. 12, OSHA has not yet released such action to enforce an ETS. An ETS measure has only been declared 10 times in their 50-year history and courts have thrown out or halted four and partially blocked one. The last ETS was issued by OSHA in June 2020 on healthcare workplace rules to slow the spread of COVID-19, but before that, the last ETS issued by OSHA was 38 years ago. David Michaels, who ran OSHA for seven years said that OSHA can “impose heavy fines, publicize to workers that they can complain if their employer is not complying, and they can do spot inspections,” told by NBC News.
Oct. 4
Southwest Airlines announces that all 56,000 employees need to get vaccinated by Nov. 24 or face termination.
Oct. 8
The Southwest Airlines Pilots Association makes a filing with the courts and requests an immediate hearing before a federal court in Dallas, claiming that Southwest Airlines has continued to violate terms of the Railway Labor Act, which makes rulings over airline-union relations, and that includes a COVID-19 vaccine requirement. “The new vaccine mandate unlawfully imposes new conditions of employment and the new policy threatens termination of any pilot not fully vaccinated by December 8, 2021,” the legal filing said, told by Bloomberg. “Southwest Airlines’ additional new and unilateral modification of the parties’ collective bargaining agreement is in clear violation of the RLA.”
Oct. 9
Southwest cancels 808 flights (24% of their flight schedule) and delays 1,154 flights (35% of their flight schedule).
Southwest announces on Twitter that, “ATC issues and disruptive weather have resulted in a high volume of cancellations throughout the weekend while we work to recover our operation.”
Oct. 10
Southwest cancels 1,007 flights (27% of their flight schedule) and delays 120 flights (3% of their flight schedule)
FAA announces on Twitter that there have been no FAA air traffic staffing shortages reported since Friday, contradicting Southwest Airlines’ initial statement that placed partial blame on air traffic control staffing shortages.
Oct. 11
Southwest cancels 435 flights (12% of their flight schedule) and delays 1,558 flights (43% of their flight schedule).
Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) issues an executive order issuing a ban on vaccine mandates for private businesses with over 100 employees. Southwest is based in Dallas, Texas.
Oct. 12
Southwest cancels 93 flights (2% of their flight schedule) and delays 1060 flights (31% of their flight schedule) as of late evening.
Southwest issues a written statement that the president’s executive order “supersedes any state mandate or law,” and that they are required to adhere to it despite Abbott’s action “to remain compliant as a federal contractor.” As a reminder, there was no such issuance of this in the President’s executive orders from Sept. 9. He placed this on OSHA’s shoulders.
President of Southwest Airlines Pilot Association Capt. Casey Murray is interviewed on CBS News and denied that the weekend disruption was caused by vaccine mandate or pilots calling out. Capt. Murray blames it “Squarely on Southwest, I point to how they manage the network and how their I.T. also supports that network,” Capt. Murray said. “Once a little hiccup occurs due to the internal processes, our pilots aren’t getting to where they need to be. We’ve been sounding this alarm for about four years and have seen very little approach to correcting it.”
Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly is interviewed on ABC News: Good Morning America and backtracks on several previous statements, admitting that there were no air traffic control shortages and that no employees will be terminated from the vaccine mandate.
Airline employees dish out the truth on social media
Although airline and union leaders have denied the claims of a sick-out, many airline employees have taken to social media claiming the exact opposite.
“Pilots are using their sick time before they are terminated on Nov. 24 due to the (vaccine) mandate,” said a Facebook post.
“I work for TSA and was briefed this morning that our southwests delays were from ‘staffing issues,'” said TikTok user aquarissssun.
“A lot of misinformation in comments. I’m ATC. We didn’t walk out. SWA does have a lot of pilots taking sick leave for mandates though. News won’t share,” said TikTok user shelbysmith0317.
American Political Columnist Benny Johnson shared on Twitter a picture of an alleged Southwest Airplane with a Gadsen flag with the words “Don’t tread on me” hanging out the window of the cockpit. The Gadsen flag was named after Christopher Gadsen, the man who designed the flag in 1775 during the American Revolution.
“This photo was just sent to me of a grounded Southwest plane flying a Gadsden flag out of the cockpit,” Johnson’s Tweet said. “The Hero Pilots at Southwest and other Airlines deserve our support. True patriots worthy of the American Freedom Fighter tradition. Don’t Tread On Me. God Bless Them.”
Can Southwest Save Face?
For an airline that has taken years to build an outstanding reputation, it’s mind-boggling to see it be tarnished so quickly and what seems like overnight. The Dallas-based airline has been long read about in graduate-level textbooks as a golden example of servant leadership, a style of leadership that can be carried out by the leader serving the employee and unlocking their sense of purpose instead of issuing orders. This has been proven effective in several studies and businesses who leveraged this leadership style saw their performance skyrocket.
“Southwest treats its employees well by backing the decisions of individual employees as well as providing everyone with quality benefits,” business.com reported. “For example, the company offers a 401(k) plan and match contributions dollar for dollar up to 9.3% of the employee’s eligible earnings. They also offer a Profits Sharing plan and Employee Stock Purchase plan, as well as health and wellbeing rewards and quality medical, vision and dental coverage.”
Kelly even contributed an article titled Why leadership is only ever about people to the World Economic Forum in 2015 and spoke of the characteristic traits of a good leader.
“I think it goes without saying, leaders must have courage,” Kelly wrote in the article. “It’s very hard to be a leader. It’s a lot easier to be a follower. It’s a lot easier to let someone else own the problem or make the decision. It’s a lot harder to stand up, speak up and be accountable.”
Has Kelly apologized for the catastrophic events? Absolutely, but anytime you use a “but” in the sentence, it negates whatever was said before it, and although the President likely added fuel to Southwest’s weekend failure, Kelly isn’t holding himself accountable when apologizing then deflecting and shifting the blame onto the president. If there is really more behind this Southwest story, Kelly should take his own advice and not let someone else own the problem. It just might be the only way to save himself from this meltdown.
After all, the truth doesn’t cost anything but a lie could cost him everything.
Keep looking at snapshots and you’ll never see where this pandemic is headed until it reaches its final destination
Note that views expressed in this opinion article are the writer’s personal views and not necessarily those of TrialSite. This article is currently FREE to read and SHARE without paying.
The debate and tension over the efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccines are flaring up. Comparative assessments of vaccine-mediated protection from infection, disease, hospitalization, and death in vaccinated and unvaccinated people are all over the place, with results ranging from convincing evidence of benefit to compelling proof of failure depending on the source of information. Those who’ve become addicted to these comparative statistics seem to forget that gauging the success of human intervention in a pandemic is about measuring success in a dynamic phenomenon and that snapshots taken under certain conditions/settings do not provide information about the overall evolutionary trend and likely health outcome of a pandemic. The latter can only be monitored by measuring temporal changes of parameters that are relevant to public and individual health.
By March 2021, molecular epidemiologists had already expressed their concern about the emergence of a super-variant that ‘might have any combinations of increased transmissibility, altered virulence and/or increased capacity to escape population immunity’ and would, therefore, enjoy a huge fitness advantage1. Back then, their concern was based on phylogenetics-based natural selection analysis indicating that immunity-mediated selective pressure is driving convergent evolution of a diversified spectrum of mutations to ensure viral persistence in the face of mounting infectious and vaccine-induced host immune pressure.
Their findings lead one to conclude that mass vaccination in the presence of more infectious variants inevitably involves selection-driven convergence of compensatory adaptive mutations at positively selected genome sites, and hence promotes enhanced expansion in the prevalence of more transmissible immune escape variants. This would imply that vaccine efficacy is expected to diminish over time while the infection rate would progressively increase. It is reasonable to assume that the evolutionary convergence of more infectious immune escape variants and the culmination thereof into a ‘super -variant’ will also cause distinct trajectories of the pandemic to increasingly converge in countries/regions that are subject to mass vaccination.
An increase in infectious pressure leads to a higher risk of rapid viral re-exposure in the population. As far as previously asymptomatically infected unvaccinated individuals are concerned, rapid re-exposure to SARS-CoV-2 may lead to viral replication on a background of a suboptimal spike (S)-directed immune pressure (due to suboptimal, short-lived anti-S antibodies [Abs] of low affinity) and even to enhanced susceptibility to disease (due to suppression of functional innate Ab capacity by the afore-mentioned suboptimal anti-S Abs). When such suboptimal anti-S immunity occurs in a substantial part of the population it is likely to further increase natural immune selection pressure on viral infectiousness and, therefore, promote further expansion of more infectious variants, thereby giving rise to additional waves of infectious cases and morbidity. As the evolutionary dynamics of the virus in highly vaccinated countries/regions are now placing huge immune selection pressure on the viral fitness landscape, it is fair to postulate that the highly diversified spectrum of evolutionary trajectories of this pandemic seen in different highly vaccinated countries will now rapidly narrow down to a more uniform path characterized by the following, prognostically unfavorable features:
Waning of vaccine efficacy as mirrored by a relative increase of morbidity and mortality rates in vaccinees over time
A relative increase of morbidity and mortality rates over time in vaccinees as compared to the unvaccinated
A relative increase in suboptimal immunity over time in both the vaccinees and unvaccinated individuals (due to diminished vaccine efficacy and suboptimal naturally elicited Abs, respectively), which may translate into a relative increase in cases of ADE (Ab-dependent enhancement of Covid-19 disease pathology)
A relative increase in the base-line infectivity rate over time
Continuing waves of increased infection, morbidity, and mortality rates
A relative increase in the frequency of more infectious viral variants with immune-resistant phenotypes over time
Conclusion: All experts and public health authorities seem to agree that the evolutionary dynamics of a pandemic are very complex and shaped by an interplay between infectious pressure exerted by the virus on the host immune system and immune pressure exerted by the host on viral infectiousness and that a pandemic can only come to an end when sufficient herd immunity is developed to control the virus. It is, therefore, surprising that none of these authorities seem to worry about the impact that massive immune intervention could have on the evolutionary dynamics of a pandemic that is now characterized by widespread dominance of highly infectious variants. The impact of any human intervention on these dynamics can only be assessed and measured by monitoring changes in population-level infection, morbidity, and mortality rates, and comparing these rates between vaccinees and unvaccinated individuals as a function of time. Likewise, phylogenetics-based natural selection studies should be conducted on viral sequences to monitor the evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 adaptation to public health interventions.
If mass vaccination eventually enables SARS-CoV-2 to evolve dominant immune-escape variants that are capable of escaping from both the adaptive and innate immune systems, the outcome of this pandemic will resemble that of introducing a pathogenic virus into a naive host species. This is actually likely to enhance viral virulence instead of controlling viral disease
So now you are claiming to be smarter than an expert . Are you Thomas?
LOL
Which expert was that? Do you mean Ron Brown (PhD)?
Why would he be more expert in this area than me?
No I'm not claiming to be an expert, but neither is Ron Brown. And I realise it. He it seems does not.
If you can identify why he is more of an expert than me - or any other person here with a doctorate - I'll be interested. Of course we have people here (not me) with medical qualifications more expert than he.
(we could try playing - my doctorate is better than yours - but I would not recommend it).
a) Requesting private medical information is a violation of the Right to Privacy in the Canadian Charter.
Pure fascism. I want a "J" in my passport!
ould you imagine what would have happended in such a discothek a year ago? No vaccine, one person infected, people packed, dancing, singing, celebrating, drinking and talking without distance...? Do you remember Ischgl?
Ischgl was on the same level 3x + have been silent = free of symptoms infections! 3/4 at least of the population always had natural immunity!
Biden announced that the Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) would be issuing an emergency rule that requires all private-sector employers with 100 or more employees to require their employees to get vaccinated for COVID-19 or submit to weekly COVID-19 testing.
USA now is a dictatorship if favor of a few very healthy big pharma stake holders. Bidens decision is based on the irrational claim that e.g. a pilot locked into a cabin can infect passengers may be by talking over loudspeakers...
Biden also spreads FUD about the since long time debunked fact that CoV-19 vaccines protect from infections and spreading virus.
This is the first time that the USA is ruled by a highly and obvious criminal individual, that acts against the law of humanity and any law of freedom.
The current alpha version of CoV-19 gene therapy can only delay or damp an infection where damping gets exponentially weaker. The gene therapy is also highly damaging, what so far did cause about 100'000 victims (cripples,deaths) in the USA alone. More than any recent imperial war.
CoV-19 is no danger at all. If treated between day1-3 of symptom onset you have a 99.99% chance to resolve the symptoms within 5 days.
So far only countries with Ivermectin treatment and prophylaxis are free of CoV-19.
Vaccination makes things provably worse see Israel, Kerala, Mizoram, UK etc...
Display MoreLOL
Which expert was that? Do you mean Ron Brown (PhD)?
Why would he be more expert in this area than me?
No I'm not claiming to be an expert, but neither is Ron Brown. And I realise it. He it seems does not.
If you can identify why he is more of an expert than me - or any other person here with a doctorate - I'll be interested. Of course we have people here (not me) with medical qualifications more expert than he.
(we could try playing - my doctorate is better than yours - but I would not recommend it).
His title includes MD. And yours? I'm not going to get into a pissing contest over titles, I do respect yours my friend, you are a real smarty pants, said with my best Boston accent. But you are not schooled in medicine. By the way, is it that title that allows you to post all day and night with no interference from your employer, Or are you skimping on your real work?
Display MoreKeep looking at snapshots and you’ll never see where this pandemic is headed until it reaches its final destination
https://trialsitenews.com/keep…es-its-final-destination/
Note that views expressed in this opinion article are the writer’s personal views and not necessarily those of TrialSite. This article is currently FREE to read and SHARE without paying.
The debate and tension over the efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccines are flaring up. Comparative assessments of vaccine-mediated protection from infection, disease, hospitalization, and death in vaccinated and unvaccinated people are all over the place, with results ranging from convincing evidence of benefit to compelling proof of failure depending on the source of information. Those who’ve become addicted to these comparative statistics seem to forget that gauging the success of human intervention in a pandemic is about measuring success in a dynamic phenomenon and that snapshots taken under certain conditions/settings do not provide information about the overall evolutionary trend and likely health outcome of a pandemic. The latter can only be monitored by measuring temporal changes of parameters that are relevant to public and individual health.
By March 2021, molecular epidemiologists had already expressed their concern about the emergence of a super-variant that ‘might have any combinations of increased transmissibility, altered virulence and/or increased capacity to escape population immunity’ and would, therefore, enjoy a huge fitness advantage1. Back then, their concern was based on phylogenetics-based natural selection analysis indicating that immunity-mediated selective pressure is driving convergent evolution of a diversified spectrum of mutations to ensure viral persistence in the face of mounting infectious and vaccine-induced host immune pressure.
Their findings lead one to conclude that mass vaccination in the presence of more infectious variants inevitably involves selection-driven convergence of compensatory adaptive mutations at positively selected genome sites, and hence promotes enhanced expansion in the prevalence of more transmissible immune escape variants. This would imply that vaccine efficacy is expected to diminish over time while the infection rate would progressively increase. It is reasonable to assume that the evolutionary convergence of more infectious immune escape variants and the culmination thereof into a ‘super -variant’ will also cause distinct trajectories of the pandemic to increasingly converge in countries/regions that are subject to mass vaccination.
An increase in infectious pressure leads to a higher risk of rapid viral re-exposure in the population. As far as previously asymptomatically infected unvaccinated individuals are concerned, rapid re-exposure to SARS-CoV-2 may lead to viral replication on a background of a suboptimal spike (S)-directed immune pressure (due to suboptimal, short-lived anti-S antibodies [Abs] of low affinity) and even to enhanced susceptibility to disease (due to suppression of functional innate Ab capacity by the afore-mentioned suboptimal anti-S Abs). When such suboptimal anti-S immunity occurs in a substantial part of the population it is likely to further increase natural immune selection pressure on viral infectiousness and, therefore, promote further expansion of more infectious variants, thereby giving rise to additional waves of infectious cases and morbidity. As the evolutionary dynamics of the virus in highly vaccinated countries/regions are now placing huge immune selection pressure on the viral fitness landscape, it is fair to postulate that the highly diversified spectrum of evolutionary trajectories of this pandemic seen in different highly vaccinated countries will now rapidly narrow down to a more uniform path characterized by the following, prognostically unfavorable features:
Waning of vaccine efficacy as mirrored by a relative increase of morbidity and mortality rates in vaccinees over time
A relative increase of morbidity and mortality rates over time in vaccinees as compared to the unvaccinated
A relative increase in suboptimal immunity over time in both the vaccinees and unvaccinated individuals (due to diminished vaccine efficacy and suboptimal naturally elicited Abs, respectively), which may translate into a relative increase in cases of ADE (Ab-dependent enhancement of Covid-19 disease pathology)
A relative increase in the base-line infectivity rate over time
Continuing waves of increased infection, morbidity, and mortality rates
A relative increase in the frequency of more infectious viral variants with immune-resistant phenotypes over time
Conclusion: All experts and public health authorities seem to agree that the evolutionary dynamics of a pandemic are very complex and shaped by an interplay between infectious pressure exerted by the virus on the host immune system and immune pressure exerted by the host on viral infectiousness and that a pandemic can only come to an end when sufficient herd immunity is developed to control the virus. It is, therefore, surprising that none of these authorities seem to worry about the impact that massive immune intervention could have on the evolutionary dynamics of a pandemic that is now characterized by widespread dominance of highly infectious variants. The impact of any human intervention on these dynamics can only be assessed and measured by monitoring changes in population-level infection, morbidity, and mortality rates, and comparing these rates between vaccinees and unvaccinated individuals as a function of time. Likewise, phylogenetics-based natural selection studies should be conducted on viral sequences to monitor the evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 adaptation to public health interventions.
If mass vaccination eventually enables SARS-CoV-2 to evolve dominant immune-escape variants that are capable of escaping from both the adaptive and innate immune systems, the outcome of this pandemic will resemble that of introducing a pathogenic virus into a naive host species. This is actually likely to enhance viral virulence instead of controlling viral disease
This is a repeat of GeertVandenBossche ideas (TSN has done them once before as posted here I think).
They are not stupid, but equally they are an outlier in the spectrum of opinion here.
Here is a pugnacious mainstream takedown of GBD's ideas
Here a less combative but similar view:
Now, everyone here may choose to believe the (very few) outlying voices on this topic. Or, they may think they know better than the people who have looked closely at this.
Personally, I think nothing is certain but that the mainstream view (which includes nothing is certain) is much more likely than weird antivaxer views that only 1% of people looking at this support.
Ischgl was on the same level 3x + have been silent = free of symptoms infections! 3/4 at least of the population always had natural immunity!
If >75% of the entire population here in western countries had natural immunity against SARS-Cov2, why we saw such tremendeous numbers and deaths from the beginning of the pandemic til today? Not sure how to interprete your claims....
