if confronted with the choice of wearing a mask or not, better to wear it.
Some articles explain best is to wash your hands with hydroalcoolic fluid or soap...
Mask may be good for any similar disease, like flu, to protect others.... it seems socially promoted and accepted in Asia... not in France...
Flu is dangerous, and as asthmatic, my doctor explained me, that it may not kill me normally, unless it does kill me... 17 dead in France already. Thousands every year.
I heard on TV yesterday that while stats from China are not reliable, the Chinese, to their credit, were very quick to isolate and sequence the virus and to share the data
That is the least they could do, since China's lax enforcement of live-animal markets is what allowed this to happen in the first place. This is a recurring problem, and with history as a guide, the markets will remain closed until this latest threat to the world is over, then quietly reopen to set the stage for the next virus outbreak.
A week ago, most estimates put the fatality rate below 2%. I think it is considerably lower than that now, because the number of uncounted, non-fatal cases is much higher than previously reported, whereas deaths are usually accounted for. See:
Jed, one only knows the CFR after all the cases have recovered. We also don't know the case fatality ratio for the infected who either self treat and recover, or have mortality. Most of the garbage "mortality rates" you see in the media is by uninformed people who are comparing numerators and denominators that are effectively spaced apart by two weeks of disease course, i.e. the 2% rate. And that includes the NYTimes headline writer as well as China government officials to whom it is in their economic interest to make it seem like it is "just the flu". I think the true CFR is in the 5 to 10% range and we will see in 6 months when the virus finishes its course. God speed to the Chinese in their attempt to lower the person to person contact for one virus life cycle. I feel especially for the front line medical care teams that can't go home in a terrible situation with insufficient ICU beds and equipment for the sick. There is one doctor who sounded the alarm back in December who is on a ventilator. I hope/pray he recovers, but even then -- he will be back on the front lines for another 6 to 8 weeks.
Most confirmed first dead had a health problem - this is the other side of the story what will lower the overall death toll.
The "had a health problem" is an attempt to stop uninformed readers from panicking, i.e. propaganda for non-technically minded people who cannot reason statistics for themselves. The CFR for SARS-COV from the WHO 11/2003 consensus document from Hong Kong (where there was less State pressure to hide the fatalities and more modern facilities in 2003 than in mainland) was 52% for >=65 (n=87) compared to 0% for 0-24, and 15% for 45-64. Most people over 65 have some "health problems" if they have survived that long, so this is like saying that the cause of it being cold is there is ice on the ground. I don't blame the government for attempting to keep an uninformed public (that may panic) calm by offering up reassuring factoids that have nothing to with the seriousness of the problem. In fact, this is good media management as panicking the population would be much worse. I still think this can be dealt with. But it is a very serious epidemic for anyone over 45 years old.
We have yet to find out the true CFR for this related corona virus -- it will be known in retrospective later. The original nCov 2019 cohort of 41 from the Lancet hospital has an apparent CFR at the time that first data was published of around 15%, but the denominator needs to be adjusted for the 6 of 41 who were still hospitalized at the time of publication (Jan 24th). Of note all those patients were admitted as a group on December 31st and the cohort was post selected on the basis of positive blood tests (as an additional 20 or so were excluded because they tested negative). While we could expect more of the mild cases don't present for treatment going forward, we could also expect the extreme aged not to present for treatment. Thus, both old and young will be underrepresented in the government published statistics.
Lastly, the raw (unadjusted) CFR of China mortalities/(cured + mortalities) published by their National Health Commission today Feb 4th thru midnight Feb 3rd at 490/(490+892)=35%. At this stage that is all the data we have. I would expect the CFR to end up being similar to SARS which in the WHO retrospective was around 9.6%, or maybe lower (for nCov), but not the 2% number which is the current mortalities/confirmed cases ratio. While there may be more ventilators in China today (in 2020 vs 2003), their numbers pale compared to cases. That is why there is triage happening -- insufficient facilities so the medical staff must allocate the facilities according to those most likely to benefit from it. That may be why strangely the suspected case count did not go up today -- no capacity to treat them. You have seen the videos of the packed hospital hallways from last week. If their factories can build another 50,000 ventilators and train laypeople on how to operate them in their new hospital/quarantine facilities, that would be a very positive.
At least there is hope while these patients remain alive for some cure, maybe a new application of an existing antiviral medicine, or some otherwise clever trick to improve case management.
In the interim, there is city lockdown type quarantine until the existing cases become contagious in about 2 to 3 weeks time from January 22nd. it's expensive but it should work. The alternative -- full infection of the population, is a much worse alternative.
Viruses are not immutable, they arise through mutation and continue to mutate as they are passed from person to person. Some mutations make little difference, some make it more benign, others make it deadly. SARS and Spanish Flu (1918) became more benign - though it took a few million dead before Spanish Flu lost its potency. In the UK in the 50'5 we had an epidemic of 'Asian Flu' as it was called (1956 from memory). That strain started out dangerous and faded in strength until it becaoe 'ordinary'. At the moment this virus is known to be infectious, obviously, but wether that is by direct touch or wether it is truly 'pneumonic' where infection can be picked up from the air in a crowded train or plane is uncertain. The exponential growth suggests that it is pneumonic, so get your face-masks on, or stop breathing in public spaces.
The problem with corona virii is that they reproduce internally to the cell so that there is no way to mount an immune response while it is replicating internally to that cell. It's "cloaked". That is why a vaccine is unlikely as even training the immune system.
A mutation that makes the virus less infectious would get evolutionary de-selection compared to a more infectious sister strain.
Like the sister corona virus, the common cold, having had the virus only confirms temporary immunity. Hopefully this temporary immunity will last long enough to carry the recovered person through to the end of the oubreak without occurrence. Even if the immunity is only good for a few weeks, it would be enormously valuable in the body of trained medical personnel who can tend to the more severely cases without risk of re-infection.
Some articles explain best is to wash your hands with hydroalcoolic fluid or soap...
Mask may be good for any similar disease, like flu, to protect others.... it seems socially promoted and accepted in Asia... not in France...
Flu is dangerous, and as asthmatic, my doctor explained me, that it may not kill me normally, unless it does kill me... 17 dead in France already. Thousands every year.
If masks lower the probability of infection by 33%, it is worth it to wear both for the individual and to improve the basic reproduction ratio for the herd. Masks, hand-washing, plus limitations on contact for both susceptible and infectious members of the population should lower the reproduction below 1. It is also possible that flushing toilets as compared to squatting toilets would lower the fecal infections probability -- but that is a mass construction/renovation problem for the next epidemic.
https://publish.twitter.com/?q…994637496320&widget=Tweet
There's an image at the above link that is claimed to have leaked out showing the "real" figures for China.
From what I have been reading about hospitals being overrun, crematoriums being sent car loads of bodies several times a day, people being turned away from hospitals to go home because they simply have "viral pnemonia", goons with guns going around dragging infected out of houses, I believe the above numbers could be accurate.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EP…r?format=jpg&name=900x900
The above is the image translated with google image translate.
Diamond Princess.. is owned by Carnival Corporation..NY
Cruise ships businesses will take a hit for a while
Not my cup of tea anyway.. I'd prefer LENR calorimetry for a few months.
This is sort of a very bad news / very good news letter to the editor, published no less than in the New England Journal of Medicine (link is open access)
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468
Is bad news because it means that is virtually impossible to avoid getting it while having a normal life. Is good news (sort of, except if you are of Asian genetic buildup) as it points out that the virus is mostly harmless for persons that aren’t of Asian ethnicity.
This case of 2019-nCoV infection was diagnosed in Germany and transmitted outside of Asia. However, it is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.3
The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak. In this context, the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery. Yet, the viability of 2019-nCoV detected on qRT-PCR in this patient remains to be proved by means of viral culture.
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There's an image at the above link that is claimed to have leaked out showing the "real" figures for China.
From what I have been reading about hospitals being overrun, crematoriums being sent car loads of bodies several times a day, people being turned away from hospitals to go home because they simply have "viral pnemonia", goons with guns going around dragging infected out of houses, I believe the above numbers could be accurate.
@Director did the account name raise a slight suspicion? Does it come from same people who suggested foil wrapping the head to block cosmic rays?
https://www.zerohedge.com/heal…ng-coronavirus-statistics
The above article goes into more detail about the leak
@Director https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tencent - largest video game company. Is it the one posting the wrong data? Surely, Chinese comrades give the gaming company real raw data and then instruct them how to manipulate. Did I miss something? What are your government health authorities tell you? Do you believe them a little bit?
Some articles explain best is to wash your hands with hydroalcoolic fluid or soap...
Mask may be good for any similar disease, like flu, to protect others.... it seems socially promoted and accepted in Asia... not in France...
If you are not yet infected, the strongest reason to wear a mask is that is prevents you from touching your face.
Mythbusters testing germ spreading...
.
I think the true CFR is in the 5 to 10% range and we will see in 6 months when the virus finishes its course.
China already confirmed 5% for Wuhan region. But many people die before reaching the hospital.
Bad news for east Asia: Their genotype is much more vulnerable than the European one. Japanese are only 50% Asian. Even more bad news: Many people are very strong spreaders without getting ill. Thus we must expect that already half of the Wuhan region is infected and the real death toll only counts for people that were vulnerable.
Worst case 10% of China is gone best case 50'000 to 100'000 dead people and from April on the story is gone.
Worldometer comparison,
https://www.worldometers.info/
Watching the world population ticking up inexorably second by second
is cause for reflection
Watching the world population ticking up inexorably second by second
is cause for reflection
But the situation is not as dire as you might think. The number of people in the cohort from 0 to 20 years of age is stable, and has been for about 30 years. It is increasing very slowly worldwide, and decreasing in some countries. So, 40 to 60 years from now, when this cohort begins to die off, world population will stop increasing. The present rapid increase is caused by people over 20 living much longer, more healthy lives than they used to. The ranks of people from 20 to 80 are increasing rapidly, something that has never happened in history. Once that stops happening, and the world population profile resembles that of the U.S., Europe and Japan, overall growth must stop. There will be no more ranks to fill out.
Infant mortality has been greatly reduced, which is the best way to ensure population will not increase. Parents used to have many children because many of them died, and in most countries there was no Social Security so people depended on their children in old age, or they starved. Nowadays, parents can be confident that most children will survive. Third world infant mortality is lower, and the birthrate is lower than it was in U.S. in 1963. In nearly every country, the birthrate is now at the replacement level, which is another way of saying the 0 to 20 cohort is not increasing.
For details, see:
