Covid-19 News

Quote from PhysicsForDummies

Guess what, large scale decreases in human population due to pandemic will lower carbon footprints.

2% mortality from the coronavirus would not be a large scale decrease, even if the entire world population was infected. You would need something like the bubonic plague worldwide. (A 30% reduction.)

Nuclear war would do it! But it has adverse environmental effects.

You could reduce the carbon footprint by 2% just with things like LED lights or an incremental improvement to automobiles. There is no need to knock off 156 million people.

The population is still growing, so 2% would soon be replaced. Note, however, that the population under age 30 is hardly growing. Nearly all present growth is from third world adults living to a full natural lifespan of ~80 years. In another 40 years they will all reach that age, and growth will stop.

Kit Chaos Continues

Would you trust these people to run a fast food joint? A bingo game? A street corner three-card monte confidence game?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…oronavirus-tests-fda.html

Estimates Fall Short of F.D.A’s Pledge for 1 Million Coronavirus Tests

Public and private labs say they’re not even close to reaching the federal government’s promises that thousands, if not a million, tests for the virus could be “performed” soon.

. . .

Does the United States really have the capacity to ramp up its efforts and produce one million coronavirus tests by the end of this week, as the head of the Food and Drug Administration promised on Monday during a White House briefing?

The figure includes orders for commercial tests that companies said were still weeks away from approval, and public health laboratories said their capacity doesn’t come close to that.

. . .

Dr. Hahn was not the only Trump administration official to promise radically expanded testing. Over the weekend, Vice President Mike Pence made similar claims, appearing on television to say that more than 15,000 test kits — which contain materials to test between 700 to 800 samples — were being shipped to labs.

In fact, the C.D.C. said Sunday it had shipped about 47 such kits. . . .

Quote from JedRothwell

“It’s all about speed”: the most important lessons from China’s Covid-19 response.

Just saw a documentary movie in regular culture TV (ARTE). China more or less locked out (> 4 weeks) a large part of the population in affected zones. Nobody could pass without a special permit.

Thats why countries like USA will completely fail do contain the virus.

Quote from JedRothwell

Public and private labs say they’re not even close to reaching the federal government’s promises that thousands, if not a million, tests for the virus could be “performed” soon.

The US health system is optimized for drawing money out of the wealthy people by providing them the best treatment.

Unluckily containing a disease is serving the poor people first as they cannot afford any tools to prevent spreading.

The infection rate increase in Switzerland is far lower than elsewhere and all cases could be tracked back so far (to Italy.....). Nevertheless we have the most strong restrictions in Europe as we do not allow sports other events with more than 1000 people joining. (Exception: Military service..)

Quote

“I still do not have a rapid diagnostic test available to me.”

I am not sure there yet exists a *rapid* (real time) PCR test for the virus. There are tests that give results in several hours. Anyone know different (link pls)?

Zephir_AWT

Your citations and links are certainly interesting. However there are other views which attempt to refute the idea that the virus is synthetic. For example: https://www.bioworld.com/articles/433087-article-headline

Quote

The research “was very shoddily done,” Bedford said. “The sequence differences are not unique to COVID-19. Closely related [bat] coronaviruses have these chunks as well. They are small motifs used by nature over and over again.”

The paper was swiftly withdrawn from Biorxiv, but the allegations continue to have a life of their own on social media, with stories headlined “Scientists confirm” COVID-19 is “man-made.”

Quote from seven_of_twenty

I am not sure there yet exists a *rapid* (real time) PCR test for the virus. There are tests that give results in several hours.

I think the doctor quoted means a test they did not have to mail to Atlanta. That's what they were doing until recently.

Here is one that takes an hour, announced on Jan. 31:

https://www.ptcommunity.com/wi…-contain-growing-epidemic

Seasonal flu tests are quick. I had one that took about 10 minutes. The time it took for a cursory visit to the doctor for some other minor problem. (I did not even know I had the flu, it was such a mild case.)

Okay, here's one that takes 30 minutes to one hour:

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020…ne-test-may-not-be-enough

Here is a list of tests, including one that takes about an hour:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00002-2

Quote from Alan Smith

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/0…n-previously-thought.html

WHO says death rate higher than previously thought - 3.4%

Thanks. It's important to note that the death rate is highly age selective and selective of people in deteriorating health before they were infected.

Bankers at work again trying to figure a way to stem the tide.

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/h…ies-against-coronavirus-2

https://www.ted.com/talks/davi…al&utm_source=tedcomshare

New York Times reader comments show that many patients have not been tested.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…trump-us-coronavirus.html

Jane

Seattle March 3

Here in Seattle, I've had a serious fever and cough for five days. The nurse at my doctor's office gave me a phone number to call about testing and in case I have breathing difficulties. It automatically disconnects after two minutes on hold. There is no concrete information online on how to get tested. Based on my experience, the problem in Seattle is far larger than anyone imagines. I've been regularly searching for information about what I should do and it just doesn't exist. The King County Health Department phone number runs an old message. There are no basic fact sheets easily accessible online. Even information on basic symptoms is conflicting. The Pence team's priority should be working with Google to surface basic answers to common questions. Not pleasing Trump every news cycle. I read these articles about political posturing and messaging and shake my head. Please New York Times et al, focus on how regular people are getting authoritative basic information. It just isn't out there.

Paul Gardiner

Sammamish WA March 3

I live 17 miles away from the Lifecare Center in Kirkland WA that has now seen 5 people die. A total of nine have now died in the county. I am 70 I have had a severe cough since I returned from a local music festival on September 23rd eight days ago. Today I attempted to get my self tested. Local Hospitals would not let me come in they are reserving tests for those with more serious symptoms. No one should believe a million test kits.This is a for profit healthcare system at work for you and me.

Here is a quote from a Times article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…rus-washington-death.html

“I went from not worrying much to being really worried now,” said Debbie Delosangeles, who said in an interview with The New York Times on Monday that she had been told that her 85-year-old mother had been symptom free. On Tuesday, she learned that her mother’s health had declined. Workers told Ms. Delosangeles that they would treat her mother for her high fever but did not intend to test her for coronavirus unless she developed breathing problems.

Bridget Parkhill said her 77-year-old mother had been sick inside the facility for nearly a week, and had a breathing issue for a short while, but had not been tested.

“Mom found out today that a friend that would come see her all the time was in the hospital and not doing well,” Ms. Parkhill said. She said she had visited the facility and walked around the exterior, to see her mother through a window.

Officials at the Life Care center have said that they were following federal protocol and were doing the best they could given a chaotic situation. At Harborview Medical Center, where one person has died, officials were working to determine which staff members may have been exposed to the virus.

Quote from Curbina

This guy also called the "containment" claimed by CCP just propaganda, and the dwindling numbers just originating in a constant change of definitions of what is a confirmed case,

The W.H.O. investigation team says the stats from China can be trusted. They did extensive cross checking and they talked to many people, and to many doctors. The Chinese government often lies, but the Chinese medical establishment and scientific establishment does not.

Quote from Curbina

Rather long video but these guys claim China is still dealing with the virus and the containment is propaganda.

External Content www.youtube.com

Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.

Display all external content

Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.

It is obvious China is still dealing with the virus.

It is also obvious that containment is not propaganda - you'd have to be a weird conspiracy theorist not to look at the evidence it is happening to an extent much more aggressive than is contemplated by other contries.

The independent investigation team are the best credible evidence of exactly how well that containment is working: and they are rightly positive about China. They give reasons and evidence, consider the possibility they may be lied to, etc.

Random and inaccurate internet pundits do not provide information nor analysis of that calibre, as should be obvious.

None of this says we know what will now happen in China, given that the most extensive containment policy (extending holidays) could not last forever, and the real uncertainties. But for many reasons the medical establishment there has every reason to be as open and accurate as possible.

Now contrast that with the US where the politician in charge of the response is on record as knowing no science, having bizaare counterfactual views about science, and will not say whether he considers coronavirus to be a hoax when repeatedly challenged. And Trump contradicts the guys in charge of vaccine development and claims vaccines will be ready in a few months.

It is pathetic, and will lead to a much faster spread of CV in the US than would be the case had they had better political leadership.

Of course what matters, given that even in the best prepared countries community transmission seems inevitable, is how well "delay" measures manage to smear out the peak in cases and reduce overall level of infection over this year; given that probably we will have some sort of vaccine next year. Even a 40% effective vaccine means more than 40% fewer cases, because it reduces transmission as well as severity of the disease.

The likely key issue is capacity of health system to handle peak numbers of cases. Quite likely the US system has more slack, assuming the whole system can buy into free treatment (not quite sure how that works). So i have not a clue whether overall things will be worse in US or say UK.

>>

>> “IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS

>>

>> Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated

>> with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong

>> Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:

>>

>> 1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold

>>

>> 2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.

>>

>> 3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a

>> temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.

>>

>> 4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to

>> the ground and is no longer airborne.

>>

>> 5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so

>> if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon

>> as you can with a bacterial soap.

>>

>> 6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will

>> kill it.

>>

>> 7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink

>> liquids with ice.

>>

>> 8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for

>> 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your

>> eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.

>>

>> 9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in

>> warm water will suffice.

>>

>> 10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!

>>

>> THE SYMPTOMS

>>

>> 1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting

>> 3/4 days

>>

>> 2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and

>> then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.

>>

>> 3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.

>>

>> 4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're

>> drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.

>>

>> SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.”

Quote from Alan Smith

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/0…n-previously-thought.html

WHO says death rate higher than previously thought - 3.4%

That is ratio of deaths/confirmed cases.

There is (from best evidence) are large proportion of cases with mild symptoms never picked up except by whole group testing.

estimated 1% but could easily be lower overall death rate.

That is still high, but means with a 50% population infection rate we have 0.25 - 0.5% deaths.

Population infection rate cannot get beyond 80%, and although this is reasonable worst case, typical expected is probably a bit, and maybe a lot, lower than this.

In addition this death rate is skewed towards people who have retired, so the effect on the economy is not particularly bad (you might even argue that long term it is good because the ratio of those working / those on pensions will increase.

Nevertheless short term it will be a big deal because we may need aggressive measures to reduce peak caseload and ensure health systems can cope.

Were I 20 years older I'd be seriously worried, personally, and at age 60 I would not say I like the idea of catching a virulent flu-like strain to which I have no resistance. But that is life. 40 years ago we would have had no vaccines for any of these diseases and seasonal flu would kill many more.

Just for balance, sure, this is a new CV strain and there is always the possibility (given it is an RNA virus) of it mutating into something really nasty. But thus far that does not seem to happen. In fact you might expect that in countries with well-prepared responses it is more likely to mutate towards milder symptoms, since asymptomatic transmission will naturally be larger than transmission of people with symptoms who are picked up and self-isolate. Maybe those with better technical info will view this last speculation is inaccurate?

Quote from Peter

>> 1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold

~5% of coronavirus patients have a runny nose according to the W.H.O. report. I don't know about sputum.