peak which is sustained until enough people have caught it (and are no longer carriers) that it dies out (though the nature of this is that like flu it is not easy for it to die out completely).
that is only true if a recovered person becomes immune. There is some evidence that people can catch this one over and over.
I don't see the need for gloves. Gloves are used in most hospital settings (and in food services) not to prevent the wearer from being infected but to stop the wearer from transmitting infection to others. Even if you wear gloves, the danger is that in handling objects the outside of the gloves will pick up the virus from surfaces and then you will unconsciously touch your face with the infected gloves.
I think wearing gloves will be a big help if there is a major epidemic. Think about going grocery shopping, and all the things you touch that other people may have touched. Such as the shopping cart, fruit that people may have picked up and put down, or the plastic jugs of milk (that the people in the store put on the shelf), or the keypad on the credit card machine. Seven_of_twenty made some cogent remarks about this yesterday.
I intend to wear a mask if things get bad, mainly to keep myself from touching my own face, with or without gloves. I also wear glasses which keeps me from rubbing my eyes. (You have to take them off. I'll try to remember not to.)
All of the staff at the YMCA is wearing gloves. They have those disinfecting wet towels and they want everyone to wipe down the exercise equipment. I don't want to do that, so I decided to wear gloves. I might be transferring viri from one machine to the other, so I do wipe them down at times. I don't like wet hands.
I recommend fingerless exercise gloves on top of latex gloves, to help grasp the equipment. Wash both, every day. Wash everythings. Wash, wash, wash! Especially your hands. Here is a cute music video from Vietnam about that. Who knew that a pandemic could be cute? (You can turn on English subtitles for this.)
The technical reason is that it is highly infectious so when it gets its teeth into any community it will rapidly ramp up to a peak which is sustained until enough people have caught it (and are no longer carriers) that it dies out (though the nature of this is that like flu it is not easy for it to die out completely).
I read that the W.H.O. has now reduced their estimate of infection rate (R0). Somewhat. That's what the Director General said in one of his recent briefings. I don't recall the details.
What people are trying to do in the UK is to control the shape of this curve so that:
(a) peak happens in Summer, away from winter flu(b) various measures slow things down to broaden out the peak and allow health services to cope
Good ideas. Sigh . . . It must be nice to live in first world country with a functioning healthcare system. Plus, let's face it, whatever you think of Boris Johnson, he is way smarter than Mr. "Stable Genius" Trump.
that is only true if a recovered person becomes immune. There is some evidence that people can catch this one over and over.
There have been instances of this. There were reports from China and at least one instance in Japan. That was a big deal in the mass media. The Japanese doctors went ape shit (the technical term) and examined the patient carefully. I think I read they determined she still had a reservoir of viruses when she was let out of the hospital. I think the test to measure whether there was any left was not sensitive enough, so they are trying to improve it. That would be better than if she was exposed again and got sick again from insufficient immunity.
The U.S. healthcare system's response to coronavirus is in utter chaos. Here is a description of what one patient went through. It turned out she did not have it, but if she had, she would have inadvertently given it to the whole neighborhood:
Thinking I had symptoms, I got a disturbing glimpse of the city’s chaotic and self-contradictory approach to containing the virus.
Think about going grocery shopping, and all the things you touch that other people may have touched. Such as the shopping cart, fruit that people may have picked up and put down, or the plastic jugs of milk (that the people in the store put on the shelf), or the keypad on the credit card machine. Seven_of_twenty made some cogent remarks about this yesterday.
I didn't think them cogent. Unless you are willing to switch to a new pair of gloves after you end your shopping -- after you do anything really -- you are just carrying the virus around on you gloves and contaminating the next thing you touch. The best hand washing is done with plenty of water so that the virus is diluted and taken away from you. But you can't do that much in public so hand sanitizer is the next best thing. I see pump bottles of the stuff appearing after the checkout in stores. Use your elbow or a wipe to pump some out and disinfect your hands, then the good news is ... time to touch your face! Scratch that itchy nose, but then stop until just after the next time you disinfect your hands.
Hand-face discipline is the key. Other measures (other than staying out of range of sneezers and coughers) are minor compared with that.
I didn't think them cogent. Unless you are willing to switch to a new pair of gloves after you end your shopping -- after you do anything really -- you are just carrying the virus around on you gloves and contaminating the next thing you touch.
Of course I would switch to a new pair! The whole exercise would be pointless if you don't switch to a new pair. That goes without saying.
Actually, though, I do not have enough gloves to throw them away, so I would switch to a pair that I have run through the laundry, and left to dry over the space heater. I read that laundering is enough to sterilize and kill any virus. I hope that is right. I think the W.H.O. documents said that.
Of course I would switch to a new pair! The whole exercise would be pointless if you don't switch to a new pair. That goes without saying.
Actually, though, I do not have enough gloves to throw them away, so I would switch to a pair that I have run through the laundry, and left to dry over the space heater. I read that laundering is enough to sterilize and kill any virus. I hope that is right. I think the W.H.O. documents said that.
It depends on how much you intend to be out and about, but you don't need 1 extra pair, you need 20-30 extra pairs every day. I just went and gassed up the car, that is one pair, I did a little shopping, that is another pair, I used a banking machine, another pair, I entered my building, another pair ... and so on. If you drive a car then don't touch it without first switching to that next pair or you will infect the door handles and the steering wheel. Hand washing and hand-faces discipline is what does it. If your hands get irritated by all the washing then I can see a role for gloves. But you wouldn't stop the hand washing ... you would wash your gloved hands so that they don't become infection tools. Gloves don't replace hand washing.
Jed,
“Do you know of some technical reason for that to happen? A natural science based reason? Or is that just a hunch?“
If it was technical I could probably do better than May/June.
Well, It's official now, the whole country of Italy, not just the north, was declared "Red Zone" and a lot of measures are being announced.
Italy went Wuhan style.
It depends on how much you intend to be out and about, but you don't need 1 extra pair, you need 20-30 extra pairs every day. I just went and gassed up the car, that is one pair, I did a little shopping, that is another pair, I used a banking machine, another pair, I entered my building, another pair ... and so on.
I do not understand what you mean. After you gassed up the car, did you return home? If you had been wearing gloves, would you have taken them off? (Okay, maybe if you get gas on them.) But after a little shopping, you wouldn't take them off. After using the banking machine, you wouldn't take them off. In fact, if I were you, I would put them on before leaving the apartment, and not take them off until I get back to the apartment and close the door. THEN take them off. When you take them off, they go inside-out and you do not touch the outside surface. So you drop them straight into the washing machine. And you immediately wash your hands.
The only problem with this method is that you might transfer viruses from the banking machine to the door of your apartment. That would not hurt you, because you are wearing gloves, but it might infect someone else. So I guess everyone should wear them.
If you were a doctor going from patient to patient then of course you would need fresh gloves for each patient! You don't want to transfer bacteria and viruses from one patient to the next. But, transferring viruses from a banking machine to the door of your building is another matter. Yes, it is a little irresponsible, but you can't be changing gloves all day long. There is some risk to doing that in the car, where you cannot wash your hands.
You could, I suppose, spray the outside of the gloves with a bleach-based cleaner every time you get back in the car. Without taking them off, I mean. That would prevent you from transferring from the banking machine to your building door.
At the gym, where I now wear gloves, I may be transferring viruses from one machine to another. But I am probably causing less risk than people who use the machines with their bare hands, even if they wipe the machines down after each use.
I recommend you spray and wipe off the door handle to your apartment with a bleach-based cleaner. The door handle should be the last thing you touch with your gloves, which you should assume are contaminated on the outside.
Also use the bleach on counter tops, cell phones, computers and so on. (I don't know about computer keyboards.)
Seams appropriate
Italy went Wuhan style.
Thank goodness. Let us hope the new case numbers stabilize and start to drop in the next week or so. If they do not, then the other European countries and the U.S. are in deep trouble.
Thank goodness. Let us hope the new case numbers stabilize and start to drop in the next week or so. If they do not, then the other European countries and the U.S. are in deep trouble.
I think the next in line to get to the same point are Spain and France, in that order. Hopefully not, but they are now where Italy was the past week (in epidemiological terms).
to be out and about
stay at home!
some here might enjoy playing with this math model of virus spread.
https://www.naturalnews.com/20…eadsheet-coronavirus.html
Not sure how "good" it is, but a fun spread (excel) sheet for projections.
millions controlled through fear and manipulation now spreading throughout the world, A controlling body not of the people but of an enterprise empire.
restraints are now removed.
some here might enjoy playing with this math model of virus spread.
https://www.naturalnews.com/20…eadsheet-coronavirus.html
Not sure how "good" it is, but a fun spread (excel) sheet for projections.
QuoteFrom that page :
New projections show only 1.1 million deaths in the USA by July 4th if social distancing achieves 25% suppression
Social distancing
It is worth noting:
Chinese new cases (latest count) +22 / day. Less than US, 20 X less than UK, 100s of times less than Italy. Even though population is much bigger.
Chinese overall cases approx 56/million population. Less than Iran, Korea. 1/3 the current total of Italy. Only 10X the current total of the UK, which reckons things have not really started yet.
Of course the Chinese epidemic was very concentrated in Wuhan, and it is not clear whether it will stay under control.
