How do you compute 10%? There are 10,149 cases, 1,004 recoveries, 8,514 active and 877 critical. There are 631 deaths. That is more like 6%, even taking into account the number
That's silly Jed! You must take the cases of 5..7 days ago not that of today!!!! No instant death.....
That's silly Jed! You must take the cases of 5..7 days ago not that of today!!!! No instant death.....
true, but you are also being silly.
CFRs skew according to how cases are detected. In Italy, swamped, they will skew towards people with severe symptoms.
That's silly Jed! You must take the cases of 5..7 days ago not that of today!!!! No instant death.....
Yes, I said even taking into account the fact that many people are still sick. I do not think it is 10%. It is difficult to tell.
Note also that the number of new patients per day in Korea has plummeted. As in China, this shows that strict quarantines and mass testing work. I think this is evidence for what the W.H.O. says, which is that the infection rate (R0) is probably lower than seasonal flu. Strict quarantines and testing would not be as effective with a higher R0. The number of new cases in Italy is lower than it was a few days ago. The new restrictions began on Sunday in the worst areas. Perhaps they are already be having an effect. Or, perhaps people were getting frightened and began responding on their own.
The number of new cases in Italy is lower than it was a few days ago. The new restrictions began on Sunday in the worst areas. Perhaps they are already be having an effect. Or, perhaps people were getting frightened and began responding on their own.
Granted, this could be a one-day blip. Here are the graphs for Italy:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
Today's new cases and deaths are not yet on these graphs. New cases: 977, a substantial drop. Deaths 168. Unfortunately that is a record high, but given all the new cases it should be expected.
The detailed data from Korea is encouraging. New cases and deaths are down considerably. I do not think this could be a random blip, although the deaths per day are so low, variations could be random.
https://www.worldometers.info/…irus/country/south-korea/
China is the most encouraging:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
I think the U.S. still does not have enough testing to reach a firm conclusion.
What happened in Italy was really eye-opening. Sixteen days ago, it had about 100 total cases. Ten days ago it had 1,000. Yesterday it had over 8,500 active cases; and another 1,000 people had recovered, and 631 died.
If the Italian government hadn't essentially shut the country down it feels like the contamination rate could have grown exponentially. Let's just hope what they are doing works. I think NYC is a real concern here in the U.S. Have to closely watch what happens in that city over the next several days. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a center of outbreak.
if the Italian government hadn't essentially shut the country down
Which one next.. Suisse or Deutschland?.. the Brits may be the last to blink
wow? 100 out of 120 workers in Swiss border region are Italian
Granted, this could be a one-day blip. Here are the graphs for Italy:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
Today's new cases and deaths are not yet on these graphs.
We all hope new cases decline. But with the http://www.worldometers.info it is easy to lookup number of cases for 6 days ago and then you can divide it by deaths. what is pretty close to 20%. May be its the cream on the milk ! only and tomorrow it will be lower. Otherwise you have to sell your stocks ASAP...
In Switzerland the rate is much much lower and only old >80 or sick people died so far. No reason for panic.
But the real problem is that hospitals did stop all immune sensitive surgery. You can't get a new organ today and in Italy the hospital personal is working 48 hours a day...Or the other way round most need a 48 hours break now.
Wyttenbach is raising a point that few consider. There's the virus direct mortality, and the indirect one, the one caused because health system is overwhelmed and people that in any other time had higher chances to survive, get a lower survival rate because of the outbreak. Guesstimating this, anyway, is a matter of endless debate and modeling.
To revisit briefly the issue of gloves which JedRothwell already addressed well: Surgeons scrub their hands thoroughly with brushes and germicidal soap for a prescribed duration and elaborate method prior to doing surgery. Then they also wear tested, sterilized, surgical gloves. Why bother with the gloves? They wash their hands, don't they? It's because while hand washing, even the lengthy and compulsive pre-surgery style, does not remove all germs. That's why the gloves. Why the washing before putting on the gloves? In case a glove gets a hole, maybe one you can't even see, or breaks, then the clean hands are a backup. Of course, the gloves protect the surgeon as well as the patient.
In the instance of preventing catching a virus, it is much more reliable to wear a nitrile, polyurethane or latex glove and then remove it (using the correct method which you can look up) than it is to simply wash your hands. It is also easier to clean a glove with alcohol while it is in use than it is to reliable clean your hand. If the exposure is potentially severe, do both-- wear gloves and after removing the gloves, wash your hands.
Well JedRothwell and seven_of_twenty have certainly made a compelling case for wearing masks and gloves to avoid becoming infected by the novel coronavirus. And I concur! Wearing a mask and gloves while you are out and about is better than doing nothing! I guess that is why national health authorities are recommending that ordinary citizens mask up and don gloves whenever they go outside.
But wait. The national health authorities of my country (Canada) and of the US are not saying that. Why not? What goes on? Are they trying to kill people? How outrageous! Is there any country recommending gloves and masks for ordinary citizens?
Maybe, Just maybe, there is an alternate, effective approach to avoiding infection.
I wonder what that would be?
They are not recommending everyone wear a mask and gloves because if that happened there would be a shortage of them. They are trying to reserve them for healthcare workers on the front lines and people who are already known to be infected.
Here in the U.S. we have basically run out of hand sanitizer to purchase. So there can be shortages of just about anything.
Well JedRothwelland seven_of_twentyhave certainly made a compelling case for wearing masks and gloves to avoid becoming infected by the novel coronavirus. And I concur! Wearing a mask and gloves while you are out and about is better than doing nothing!
True, but make sure you have the right type of mask, or it could be deadly in another way:
But wait. The national health authorities of my country (Canada) and of the US are not saying that. Why not? What goes on? Are they trying to kill people?
Probably because they are inept. Or possibly to conserve the number of gloves (as noted).
They say things which make little sense. Such as: you don't need a mask, but doctors and nurses do need them. Obviously, if you come in close contact with a sick person, the mask will protect you as much as it would protect a doctor. So it should be "you don't need a mask because you probably will not come in close contact with a sick person." But you might!
The Japanese government does not say that, by the way. They are distributing free boxes of masks to everyone in Sapporo, and soon to the entire country. They are making cotton ones that can be laundered.
(I do think people should refrain from buy masks while there are shortages. You should make your own, with paper towels and tissues. As noted here, they are almost as effective as manufactured ones.)
Maybe, Just maybe, there is an alternate, effective approach to avoiding infection.
Washing hands is effective, but not as effective.
Probably because they are inept. Or possibly to conserve the number of gloves (as noted).
Would you allow for them having certain criteria before going into panic mode?
Speaking of Ottawa, first reported case today (self isolated) and 3 death from seasonal flu.
Some people will call them inept even after 1T pledge. Doesn't change much.
https://www.thelocal.com/20200…sed-what-you-need-to-know
Swiss close some border crossimgs with Italy
A swift change: Increasing numbers force government to reconsider
On Tuesday while meeting his French counterpart in Paris, Cassis said border closures were not being considered as they were not effective - and that cooperation was the best protection.
The rapid increase in detected infections overnight however - rising from under 500 to approximately 650 from Tuesday to Wednesday - forced a re-think.
..In total, nine border crossings were closed, with an alternative crossing point provided for each.
The Japanese government does not say that, by the way. They are distributing free boxes of masks to everyone in Sapporo, and soon to the entire country. They are making cotton ones that can be laundered.
What is the official advice of the Japanese health authorities? Gloves and mask?
Washing hands is effective, but not as effective.
I'm sure you will be well protected by your countermeasures. But why did you stop at gloves and mask? Wouldn't the full suite of personal protection gear used by healthcare professionals be better? Long sleeved gloves, a gown, goggles or a face shield (the CDC expressly says that eyeglasses are insufficient)? Wouldn't that be more effective?
The news from Italy is dreadful. 2,313 new cases, 196 deaths. This is more one-day deaths than the peak in China.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
