Covid-19 (WuFlu) News

  • Or millions, as the U.S. may have in a month.


    Here is my simplified projection for the U.S. one month from now. This does not take into account the leveling off that will start to occur as the number of immune recovered patients increases. At present, the 1.3 daily increase is nearly unchanged from March 1, so no simplification is needed. Experts say it is unlikely more than 70% of the population will be infected.


    DateCasesIncreaseNew CasesPercent of population
    April 1616,294,2771.303,760,2185%
    April 1721,182,5601.304,888,2836%
    April 1827,537,3281.306,354,7688%
    April 1935,798,5261.308,261,19811%
    April 2046,538,0841.3010,739,55814%
    April 2160,499,5101.3013,961,42518%
    April 2278,649,3621.3018,149,85324%
    April 23102,244,1711.3023,594,80931%
    April 24132,917,4221.3030,673,25141%
    April 25172,792,6491.3039,875,22753%
    April 26224,630,4441.3051,837,79569%



    I say the increase is "nearly unchanged" because there a slight decrease yesterday, but I doubt it was significant. Here are the numbers from March 2 - March 15. As you see, it went down to 1.24 twice in the last 14 days, and it was 1.25 yesterday.



    1.33
    1.24
    1.27
    1.40
    1.44
    1.36
    1.24
    1.30
    1.41
    1.31
    1.30
    1.32
    1.31
    1.25


    If these numbers hold, U.S. hospitals will be overwhelmed by April 4. That's based on the number beds and ICU listed in the N.Y. Times. By April 11, there will be ~1 million new cases per day. There will no care available for most patients. No drugs at all. People will be dying at home at about the same rate they did in the 1918 pandemic, because the mortality rate for untreated patients is about the same, 2% to 3%.


    Actually, the mortality rate for the U.S. untreated population may be a little higher than 3% for the cononavirus, because our population is unhealthy. 40% of adults over 20 are obese. 8% are severely obese, and 32% are overweight. This is well known cause of comorbidity for a wide range of diseases, such as heart disease, cancer and -- of course -- diabetes. According to Michael Osterholm (

    ) the effect of obesity is roughly equivalent to smoking. Obviously, smoking is more directly dangerous with a respiratory disease such as coronavirus. So anyway, based on this, I looked that the Chinese statistics for elderly and unhealthy populations and comorbidity. It shows 9.2% mortality for pre-existing diabetes. (https://www.worldometers.info/…rus-age-sex-demographics/) 30% of obese people have diabetes. (https://news.harvard.edu/gazet…ry/2012/03/the-big-setup/) So, just looking at diabetes, and ignoring other comorbidity caused by obesity, we have:


    ~40% of adults obese, ~30% of those with diabetes, equals ~12% of U.S. adult population dying at 9.2% instead of rates ranging from 0.2% to 3.6% for people under 60.


    That is, 12% of the adult population that is infected, not the whole population. I think this would be enough to push mortality significantly above the expected rate of ~2% or 3% for untreated patients in a catastrophic situation. Even if hospitals are not overwhelmed, there is no doubt that the 40% obese population will die at a higher rate than the average Japanese or Korean population, because obesity is rare in these countries. What it boils down to is that 40% of our population will die at the rate 70-year-old Japanese patients do, because we have a gigantic burden of comorbidity.


    Obesity is a major reason the U.S. healthcare system is number 27 in the world, behind every other first world country. (https://www.businessinsider.co…care-and-education-2018-9) The other reason, obviously, is because 90 million people have no health insurance and no sick leave, so they cannot go to the doctor. (The notion that emergency room treatment is "free" is complete nonsense. They charge you for it. A friend of mine had emergency room treatment and was in a coma for several days. He woke up facing a bill for $90,000. When I last heard, the collectors had taken his truck, and they were after his house. They will take every penny and leave you homeless, if they can.)


    Needless to say, the fact that many people cannot go the doctor or even stay home sick will push up the death rate, and it will accelerate the speed of the epidemic.


  • I think for 2 reasons.


    1. Deaths in China listed at 14 today is a bit higher than where they were a couple of days ago. But I agree there are just still a lot of active cases.


    2. If South Korea is still having 75 cases per day that is good, but by no means great. Let's say in the U.S. we go the way of South Korea and not Italy, which is probably a best case scenario. I actually think we have reason to believe we are heading in the direction of Italy/Spain/Germany. So SK has a population of 50 million people. Based on the U.S. having over 6 times their population that would mean we would still have 480 cases per day to their 75. Maybe that's not the right way to look at it. But with 422 cases today in the U.S. it just means there's a long road ahead.

  • They have tremendous social solidarity and a sense of responsibility for their fellows - even without a pandemic people with 'the sniffles' will wear a mask outdoors or on the subway for the protection of others.


    Well, I have been involved with Japan 50 years, I have not seen much evidence for "a sense of responsibility." Group solidarity kinda died out in 1945. Actually, Americans tend to have more community spirit and more institutions such as clubs, scouting, churches, food banks, people cleaning up local rivers and parks and so on. The Japanese welfare system is miserly, and single mothers in particular are in bad shape these days. However, they do have national healthcare, and the overall quality of it is superb.


    The mask on the subway is mainly for the protection of the wearer. It is mainly a muffler to ward off the cold air. In cold weather, when you leave someone's house, they often say, "would you like a mask?" There is a box of them in the foyer. It is true that sick people use them. They are embarrassed to sneeze in public, and they don't want people to their red noses. That's what they tell me, anyway. Not quite the same as responsible, but functionally equivalent.


    The Japanese were often impressed by the U.S. cooperative community spirit during the occupation. Example: A man was pushing a cart filled with fruit, which overturned in front of a streetcar. There were several U.S. GI passengers in the streetcar. They jumped out, helped the man to his feet, helped to pick up the fruit, and pushed the cart off to the side. The Japanese passengers would never have thought to do that. They were astounded that any soldiers would. They were deeply impressed.

  • If South Korea is still having 75 cases per day that is good, but by no means great. Let's say in the U.S. we go the way of South Korea and not Italy, which is probably a best case scenario. I actually think we have reason to believe we are heading in the direction of Italy/Spain/Germany. So SK has a population of 50 million people. Based on the U.S. having over 6 times their population that would mean we would still have 480 cases per day to their 75. Maybe that's not the right way to look at it. But with 422 cases today in the U.S. it just means there's a long road ahead.


    I think you miss the point. The number of cases in South Korea is not increasing. On the contrary, it decreased tremendously from the peak, as you see in the Worldmeters graph I posted. It is trending downward. More to the point, they are tracking all new cases, and testing and quarantining everyone who came in contact with the new cases, using high tech methods. The Chinese perfected this. The Japanese are doing it. This will ensure the numbers remain stable, or decline. There will be no exponential increase. All three countries are out of danger. If cases start to spike again, they know what to do to stop them.


    There is a long road, which will end with a vaccine. Yes, it will cost them a lot of money, but it will be a tiny fraction of what Italy and U.S. will pay, with out-of-control exponential growth, and absolutely no way of telling where the cases are coming from, because we have no test kits. People do not appreciate what "exponential growth" means. It means that 15 days from now, the U.S. will have 188,000 cases, which is more than the entire world has today. That is, unless the rate of increase changes. There is no sign it will change, and the Trump administration is not doing anything that might change it, although local governments are.


    S. Korea can handle 75 cases a day, with only 59 total in intensive care. The U.S. could easily handle 422 cases per day if they were not increasing, if we had test kits to find patients, and if we tracked down and quarantined every person they contacted. Testing is the most important way to control an epidemic when there is no vaccine. The Koreans have tested hundreds of thousands of people; we have tested ~8,000 as far as anyone knows. (The number is a classified secret.) Also, Korea has more beds and doctors per capita than the U.S.; their overall healthcare quality is far better than ours; and they have no-cost national healthcare, so anyone can go to the doctor without worrying about money. Whereas in the U.S. a patient in Florida was charged $3,000 just for a test to see if he had coronavirus. (He didn't.)

  • Once again I am amazed. I have only been a regular visitor and part time resident in Tokyo for 10 years, but I always get the impression we know two different Japans.


    Do you speak Japanese? If not, have you read lots of Japanese novels, anthropology and history. I have been watching TV news, melodramas and detective stories ever since we got Japanese satellite TV, 30 years ago. That's distorted, but it gives me insight. It tells me that young people have bad grammar and they use all kinds of slang and new words! They don't know how to speak their own language, these kids!


    Just going to a country may not give you much insight into it. I read a book by an elderly Japanese woman who visited Georgia several times, and stayed with a wealthy old family with antebellum views. They told her that black people love their old masters, they were better off under slavery, the races get along splendidly, and there would be no problem if it were it not for the troublemakers from up North. That's what most white people said up to around 1975, and what many still say, but the black people do not agree, to say the least. I do not think this woman talked to black people.


    I am not suggesting you are as naive as that author, but you might have a limited perspective. I surely do as well, since the only Japanese people I personally know are professors, engineers, and farmers. But, as I said, I have a lot of exposure to popular culture. I mentioned the single mother problem. I wouldn't know about that on my own. I don't know any Japanese single mothers, but there was a multipart melodrama about them a few years ago, sympathetic to their plight. So I learned more about them than most Americans would know.


    I also do not know any lunatics who burn women at the stake for artistic purposes, as in the Akutagawa story (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_Screen), but I just saw a 2-hour Japanese horror movie about that on Saturday. Plus I translated parts of that story in college. So I know about that, too. And a lot of other perverse stuff! I am part of a distinguished linguist elite of English speakers who gets off reading Edo-period pornography.


    Regarding masks on trains, that I know about. Because people have been telling me since I was 18. They are as common as Kleenex or wool mufflers. In the 1970s, we usually wore mufflers in Japan, indoors and outdoors. The classrooms were unheated. Apartments were unheated. As my mother noted during a visit, the toothpaste was frozen in the morning.

  • Italy new cases has been stable for 3 days. That's sort of good news. The numbers are:


    3,497

    3,590

    3,233


    Deaths, which lag new cases, were 175, 368, 349.


    The UK seems down substantially. 342, 251, 152.


    S. Korea remains under control and steady: 107, 76, 74

  • Just going to a country may not give you much insight into it.


    I agree. But when I am there I live not in a hotel but in a multi-generation majority Japanese household in Shibuya, central Tokyo, where almost everybody speaks English or French. (Thank goodness)). It is a narrow slice of society admittedly, and drawn from a different social group, bankers, lawyers, politician, artists and a few engineers. I do wonder if our different perceptions are due to the fact I am mostly in Tokyo - for as we know capital cities tend to have their own culture distinct from the rest of a country, but also because we view it from a different cultural framework of our own

  • Some quick suggestions if you get stricken and can't get medical help. Most people will have mild disease so don't freak. Self isolate and try not to infect others. Stay well hydrated, food is less important. Check your temperature and mitigate it if it's high. Suggestions for that are acetaminophen (Tylenol) and cool water and a fan!


    Have on hand a thermometer (the accurate under tongue type preferably) and if possible a fingertip oximeter. Oxygen saturation should remain above 92% in people with normal heart and lungs and at sea level. Start to worry below 90% and get very worried and contact help for 88% or below. It's a good idea to test yourself for temp and oxygen while healthy as a baseline. Also note your breathing rate.


    If it seems to get worse every day to the point where you are very worried, you can try taking chloroquine if you can get it. Pharmacies in India had it a week ago but I don't know now. Shipment for mine took about three weeks. Be sure to read dosing recommendations- it has an extremely long life in the body. Don't expect miracles from it.


    Again if things are unstable, I'd recommend a broad spectrum antibiotic. Doxycline or Augmentin (Ampicillin plus clavulonic acid) or Azythromycin, of course for all of these, if you are not allergic. You probably know that the the virus is not affected by the antibiotic but the bacteria that often invade lungs together with a viral infection are. Use it at least 10 days or until completely well, whichever is longest.


    There are some papers which suggest Vitamin D may help. For short periods, up to 50,000 units per day has been given. A more moderate approach is 5000-10,000 units. Vitamin C probably won't help but except for diarrhea, it's not usually harmful.


    If you start out healthy and your condition is stable and not very serious, you still have appetite and some energy, I'd do nothing except hydration, acetaminophen and isolation.


    Of course, check with your personal health professional before following anything you find on the internet including this! I hope everyone on this forum gets through this.



    ETA: this is an interesting report of a moderately severe case in a healthy health professional- https://www.foxnews.com/health…s-its-not-what-i-expected

  • dumb question...…. if chloroquine is so hard to get now, why not just use quinine? It is readily available.


    If you do any self medication first take a sheet of paper and a pencil, exactly write down what you did take and store it a highly visible point!




    There is a long road, which will end with a vaccine.


    That's dreaming of an UFO that will save the world...


    That is, 12% of the adult population that is infected, not the whole population. I think this would be enough to push mortality significantly above the expected rate of ~2% or 3% for untreated patients in a catastrophic situation. Even if hospitals are not overwhelmed, there is no doubt that the 40% obese population will die at a higher rate than the average Japanese or Korean population, because obesity is rare in these countries. What it boils down to is that 40% of our population will die at the rate 70-year-old Japanese patients do, because we have a gigantic burden of comorbidity.


    America is not a homogenous country. On the country side you can easily do a lockout for 6-8 weeks but in larger cities where people are used to buy their stuff almost on a daily basis the mess will start immediately after the lockdown will be announced. 10% of the people will buy 90% of the food and goods. Some people will have no food for at least 3 days and walk around like mad.


    America is not an advanced civilization as the rich believe, In reality it's world ranked 30 or even behind in most things that are important to deal with modern threats. I expect hat the US will end much worse than Italy simply because nobody will care about the 70'000'000 people without healthcare, that will loose their jobs first and stay on the street with no money because the can no longer pay the rent.

    All countries (like Germany, France, eastern Europe ) with a socialist background will perform much better as the sense for human behavior has been lived now for almost 100 years. USA mentally still lives in the Wild West where money is power and keeps you alive - most of the time...

  • It is very unlikely that natural evolution spontaneously integrated parts of the HIV GAG and GP 120 genes into a bat virus.



    https://www.biorxiv.org/conten…iwnj04czziY3y0goOikRgUyPE




    It will be up to the investigators to determine how and where such genetic construction came to be.



    In the meantime, this observation gives meaning to the strange symptoms caused by the coronavirus, notably severe lymphopenia: if the Wuhan Coronavirus carries proteins derived from HIV and targeting receptors present on lymphocytes, such as HIV, it is normal that it causes the disappearance of these blood cells, in addition to targeting and destroying bronchial epithelial cells, like other SARS-type coronaviruses.



    Rather than the term "Cov pneumonia" or Cov-19, it would be more appropriate to speak of airborne leukopenia or Airborne Immunodeficiency Syndrome or "Lymphopenic community acquired pneumonia" as some authors do.



    Of course, immunodeficiency in the strict sense has not been described, for one simple reason: patients who suffer from it die quickly. But they probably die from multi-organ failures related to blasting secondary infections, either in the lungs or in the digestive tract. A syndrome like "septic shock" with blockage of the kidneys by toxins. It is a real "acute and contagious AIDS" that our government has allowed to sweep over France.



    Two months ago, the stopping of flights from China would have killed the epidemic in the bud, leaving time to develop a vaccine, (admitting that it is possible to develop a vaccine against a virus targeting the immune system, and we’ve seen since thirty years that it’s not an easy task)



    Today, no one knows what the future will be like, and it is not the wiping out of the second round of municipal elections that will change anything.


    References :


    J Infect. 2020 Mar 4. pii: S0163-4453 (20) 30110-9. doi: 10.1016 / j.jinf.2020.02.029. [Epub ahead of print]

    Lymphopenic community acquired pneumonia as signature of severe COVID-19 infection: Lymphopenia in severe COVID-19 infection.

    Bermejo-Martin JF1, Almansa R2, Menéndez R3, Mendez R4, Kelvin DJ5, Torres A6.




    Lymphopenia predicts disease severity of COVID-19: a descriptive and predictive study


    Li Tan, Qi Wang, Duanyang Zhang, Jinya Ding, Qianchuan Huang, Yi-Quan Tang, Qiongshu Wang, Hongming Miao

    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029074


    https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…03.01.20029074v1.full.pdf

  • About thos storing Chloroquine, be careful, this drug is very toxic...

    Some people lik Pr Roult are experience in usng it to cure some rare disease (why he promote it today, he is one of the only competent in controlling doses and side effect).

    It can destroy the hear beat oscillator, or make yout cornea spotty...


    Anyway Pr Roult report his results (many other points discussed, if you understand france... tasty)

    by the way, he promots a strategy : test, isolate, cure, release

    he tested chloroquin and a mix with an antibiotic azitromycine...

    the drugsafety people will be under panic as both drugs attack the heart rythm...

    Pr Raoult is quite criticized as lacking prudence on that, but what he claims is experience using it...


    Stay at home anyway...


    I stay at home because not only this disease is risky, the chloroquine is very risky, but also becaus emu governement is coward and stupide, and I don't trust them to allow this dangerous drug to be used if it works... today precautionism say you shoul prefer letting someone de for sure than risking to kill him by accident.


    This crisis is a revelation about failures.


    China helped Italy because of an old honor debt when Italian doctors helped them 40 yeard ago...

    Alibaba gave mask to Germany.

    Germany refused to sell mask to switzerland.

    France criticied Chinese scientists, and get bashed back by China embassy.

    Since france blocked the price of Hydroalcoolic fluid and mask, we have none now (except in ministers), and Luxury goods group now start to manufacture it in their perfume factories.

    Happy to see Rolls Royce manufacture respirator... If Alan can buy one for me... it seems I'm too old to deserve one if I need (median age of people needing respiratoir isn below 50 now).


    Don't panic, but stay at home, even before the government ask you, they are coward and stupid...

    0.5% of dying , but much more at my age, and probably no ventilator, unless Alan find one for me at Rolls Royce. ;->

  • fabrice DAVID

    Quote

    #899

    It is very unlikely that natural evolution spontaneously integrated parts of the HIV GAG and GP 120 genes into a bat virus.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/conten…iwnj04czziY3y0goOikRgUyPE

    I am sorely tempted to insult you but under the exigent circumstances, I'll abstain from it. So please read the comments following this paper or letter which appeared on the internet without peer review. I am not a virologist but many who are left credible comments which basically not only call bullshit on the idea but also explain exactly why. This sort of specious claim does nobody any good and wastes reading time and energy. If you want to mention that a few people believe the theory, fine. But please please please stop presenting it as fact.