Covid-19 News

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Well, tell me what do you think the consequences of shutting down the developed worlds economies, as we are in the process of doing, will be, as compared to fighting COVID19, as we fight the flu?

Silly wabbit. How do we "fight the flu?" Flu vaccine and antivirals. Neither available for COVID-19. How bad is the "flu"? If you mean "influenza A and B" (flu is a generic term for upper respiratory infections) then it's moderately contagious and has a lethality of around 0.1% across the population in unvaccinated individuals, less than half of that for vaccinated people. Corona virus has a lethality currently estimated at 1 to 3%. A minimum of ten times that of influenza. It can be much much higher among those with other conditions or advanced age.

Corona virus is especially vicious because asymptomatic carriers are possible and the latency period before showing symptoms but after becoming infected is up to a week or more.

I mean, seriously, Shane D. , are you keeping up with actual news and experts or are you relying on weird theories? Anyway, if the virus is allowed to spread unchecked, medical facilities for all medical care will be overrun and unusable or dangerous. There will be widespread panic, hoarding, perhaps riots. If the proper public health measures are used, there will be time to develop a vaccine and antivirals and reopen the economy.

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China and S Korea have already made antiviral drugs available in all their pharmacies since February. It wasn't just the vigorous quarantine that has reduced cases. As you say we just have to do the same.

Which drugs and how do you know?

Quote from Max Nozin

what is the total # new cases in Italy for today?

3,526. It is only posted once a day, so this is the final number:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is actually good news. It has been stable for four days. From March 1 to March 13, the average rate of increase (today's number of cases divided by yesterday's) was the same as the U.S.: 1.3. For the last 4 days this rate has been 1.1. If it had still been still increasing at 1.3 on March 14, 15, 16 and 17, it would now be ~7,200 instead of ~3,500.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

The U.S. rate of 1.3 has not changed since March 1. If it continues another 2 weeks at this rate, by March 31, there will be ~225,000 cases, with 50,300 new cases per day. Our hospitals are already under pressure. They will be overwhelmed. By April 28, the entire U.S. population will be infected. That cannot happen, but before it happens, there will be millions of new cases per day, and hundreds of thousands of deaths per day. So I think the notion that we are doing "too much" is misguided, to say the least. We have 4 weeks to avoid this, but unfortunately, so far the Federal government is doing nothing to prevent it.

Again let me point out that this dramatic growth is how epidemics work in nature, in other species, for a local population. It is not a fantasy or just "playing with numbers." It is the curve shown in the Ferguson report, which has, at last, put the Fear of God in the Trump administration. See Fig. 1, which predicts 510,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. if nothing is done.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/med…-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

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WHAT are you talking about? What vaccine have they not been able to develop for 30 years? Flu vaccines are effective. The problem is that there are many species and they keep evolving. There is only one species of the coronavirus at present

The reference may be to an attempt in 2009 (?) to develop a SARS vaccine which ended because the vaccine caused "cytokine storm" in a significant proportion of recipients and was not safe. But that was 2009 and molecular biology and vaccine design have advanced a lot since then. It was in the news recently that 45 volunteers have been enrolled in a phase I vaccine trial in Washington state. This trial will determine whether the vaccine being tested is safe and whether it produces antibodies to the virus. Dose information will be developed. Even if this goes well, production vaccines may be between 6 months (unlikely) to a year or more away. And they probably will be in the range of 50-60% effective if one can extrapolate from influenza. A lot better than nothing for stopping the pandemic.

Just to be picky, it probably doesn't matter, but there are actually two variants of corona virus. It may be evolving but so far, very slowly if at all.

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The U.S. rate of 1.3 has not changed since March 1. If it continues another 2 weeks at this rate, by March 31, there will be ~225,000 cases, with 50,300 new cases per day. Our hospitals are already under pressure. They will be overwhelmed. By April 28, the entire U.S. population will be infected. That cannot happen, but before it happens, there will be millions of new cases per day, and hundreds of thousands of deaths per day. So I think the notion that we are doing "too much" is misguided, to say the least. We have 4 weeks to avoid this, but unfortunately, so far the Federal government is doing nothing to prevent it

Very very scary and sad. I hope the people now crowding into beaches and parks to enjoy Spring break and weather in the US will consider it but I am sure they won't until the numbers get huge and are all over the news.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

Corona virus has a lethality currently estimated at 1 to 3%. A minimum of ten times that of influenza. It can be much much higher among those with other conditions or advanced age.

And higher still when the hospitals are overwhelmed, the doctors and nurses are incapacitated or dead, and medical help is not available. That was the situation in Wuhan in the first weeks, when the mortality rate was very high. It was 4.9% in Wuhan, compared to 2.1% nationwide, and later 0.7%. (https://www.worldometers.info/…ronavirus-death-rate/#nhc) 4.9% is higher than the 1918 Spanish flu. It would leave us as helpless as my grandparents were. As I said, just living in the 21st century does not help you if 21st century medicine and hospitals are out of reach. You will be as helpless as a victim of the Black Plague in 1347, and if you are over 70 and obese, just about as likely to die.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

And they probably will be in the range of 50-60% effective if one can extrapolate from influenza. A lot better than nothing for stopping the pandemic.

I think it would be more effective than the seasonal influenza vaccine, because there are many different influenza viruses, and that vaccine has be targeted to only 4 of them: two A viruses, and 2 B viruses. So says the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/quadrivalent.htm

It used to be only 3 instead of 4 (trivalent versus quadrivalent). Apparently they do a guessing game as to which 4 will be most prevalent in the coming year. Sometimes they get it wrong.

There is only one coronavirus at present. If it does not mutate before a vaccine becomes available, one vaccine should be able to exterminate it from humans. It will still be in bats, so it might cross over again.

Even if the vaccine efficacy is stuck at 50 to 60%, if the entire population is inoculated, I believe that is enough to stop an epidemic. The simulations show that when ~60% of the population acquires natural immunity by surviving the disease, you are on the declining side of the curve and the epidemic is tapering off. That is how epidemics in nature subside. I guess the infection rate R0 falls below 1. In other words, infected people do not encounter enough people who have not had the disease to spread it. Dr. M. Osterholm discussed this in the video, which I highly recommend.

I guess that would be herd immunity. It it is only acquired by surviving coronavirus, that is a frightful price to pay.

Osterholm says the mortality rate is closer to the 1918 influenza was ~3.0 to ~3.2% (at minute 37).

Quote from JedRothwell

And higher still when the hospitals are overwhelmed, the doctors and nurses are incapacitated or dead, and medical help is not available. That was the situation in Wuhan in the first weeks, when the mortality rate was very high. It was 4.9% in Wuhan, compared to 2.1% nationwide, and later 0.7%. (https://www.worldometers.info/…ronavirus-death-rate/#nhc) 4.9% is higher than the 1918 Spanish flu. It would leave us as helpless as my grandparents were. As I said, just living in the 21st century does not help you if 21st century medicine and hospitals are out of reach. You will be as helpless as a victim of the Black Plague in 1347, and if you are over 70 and obese, just about as likely to die.

Personally, my biggest concern here in the U.S. is that the hospitals get overwhelmed and specifically the ventilators. Yes, the military can build field hospitals. But what if we get to a place where there are more patients that need ventilators than what is available? Can they be manufactured and distributed quickly? Just don’t want to see this get to a place where Doctors are making choices about who gets one and who doesn’t.

Like you and many others have said, if we just make a societal decision to isolate ourselves for a bit, we won’t have to get to this tough place.

If we get to peak new cases here in the U.S. in a few weeks the question is, will that be 10,000 new cases per day or 50,000 new cases per day? 50,000 new daily cases would simply overwhelm our hospitals. Let’s hope we don’t get there.

An import of antivirals based on chloroquine and favlivavir would surely prevent such a nightmare scenario- it's worth a try and better than doing nothing. How do I know the Chinese S Korean and Japanese success stories are partly due to antiviral use? Favlivavir is licenced for treatment on prescription now in Japan and soon in S Korea and freely available to doctors in China. China imported a massive quantity of chloroquine from Pakistan which has been well documented as they did it at 'no charge' altruistically from Bayer. Do you think they fed them to their goldfish? Since Wang Cell Biol. Publication the news was out and all supplies of chloroquine disappeared overnight. It's still difficult to acquire as Alan Smith has found out with cancelled orders. The incidence of corona virus cases in Africans is remarkably low due to their prophylactic use of chloroquine for malaria which suggests if used in the same way for COVID 19 might be effective in blocking person to person transmission, as also suggested by Wang's in vitro study preventing infection between cells by glycolysation of ACE receptors blocking viral entry and maybe some protease inhibitor or RNA polymerase blocking activity. Whatever the mechanisms these agents have been found to be effective and are only awaiting final approval following further clinical trials as with remdesivir too. The question is can we afford to wait for this academic exercise to play out as we watch people die in agony and economies collapse around the world? It works so let's f******* use it ASAP and a screw what the authorities think! Aren't we all cold fusion free thinkers/nuclear rebels anyway?

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The infection rate is unknown and could be higher than flu.

It is definitely higher than influenza A and B (please don't say "flu", that is meaningless). COVID-19 has asymptomatic carriers, a long and symptom-free incubation period during which the patient is infectious, and, it seems, a high infectivity from person to person via droplets and hand to face contact. True, the exact infection rate isn't known but considering the mortality rates recorded so far, COVID-19 is vastly more of a nightmare than the current influenza viruses ever were. Or for that matter SARS and Swine Influenza.

The World Health Organization (WHO) issued a warning to medical personnel after a new study revealed that the potentially deadly virus can be spread through the air.

Read Newsmax: Warning From WHO: Study Shows Virus Can Survive in Air | Newsmax.com

There's still no antiviral use in Italy. It's out of control and it looks like 'we're next'! Anybody know Prof XLLi or Zhang Heng or any other Chinese cold fusionists who might be willing to inquire about some free samples to maybe help curb the present epidemic? Like maybe several tons of chloroquine phosphate and as much favlivavir or remdesivir as possible?

S

Quote from Shane D.

So far this season, between 12,000 and 30,000 US citizens have died from the flu. 2 winters ago, 80,000 died. That is nothing to sneeze at. Were the media so inclined, they could turn those numbers into a frenzy, and make it a crisis. Yes, there are differences between influenza, and COVID19, but there are similarities also. Enough similarities I would think, that it is reasonable for any normal, red blooded, silly wabbit, to ask why they are reported on so differently?

Sure, you can point out the corona mortality rates are higher, maybe a little bit more contagious, and the "possibility" it would, if we do not take all these economy killing measures, kill off half the planet...but if you do, does that not make you heartless for downplaying the dangers of the flu? I think so. It is discriminatory to treat one killer disease, differently than the other.

I think it is good to keep a perspective like you are Shane. There are other viruses of different kinds, and many people have gotten sick and died from them. So why are the media (and a lot of other people) freaking out about this one way beyond some of the others? I think there are 3 reasons, and they are pretty good ones.

1. It is a new virus. When a virus is new there just isn’t a lot that is known about it. More is being learned every day, but there is still so much they don’t know. What if it develops into a different, deadlier strain? What if it is deadlier at different times of the year, or in different locations? You can play the “what if” game with this virus cause no one knows for sure.

2. It is highly contagious while people are still asymptomatic. They tested people in South Korea who felt totally fine. Not only were they positive, but when they did throat cultures on these people, some had a a very high viral load. Yet they felt fine. That’s not good for containing it. It’s why it’s so contagious.

3. Perhaps the biggest one of all is just math. Just take the 1.3 multiplier that Jed has been using and run it out for a bit, and then take a .6% mortality rate, and that tells the whole story. Go out 20 or 30 days and the numbers get big.

Thankfully that type of multiplier stopped in China, and it might even be in the process of slowing in Italy, that would be awesome. But what if (what if again) that multiplier doesn’t stop in another place? The number of people would grow to a point where they would overwhelm the health system of any industrialized nation. This is a virus where a lot of people need ventilators to help them breathe. There are many stories already of not just people in their 80’s who need ventilators, but also people in their 20’s, 30’s, 40’s and 50’s. People who simply need help breathing. Yes that happens with influenza, but not on this scale. So our health system, or any other could quickly become overwhelmed by that one simple problem.

everyone would love it if this turned out to be some kind of overhyped false alarm and life went back to normal in the near future. That would be so great. For the people who say that’s what will happen, I hope they are right.

Alan Smith - there's still widespread unofficial use of chloroquine in sub-Saharan Africa to treat fevers- Bill Gates would know from the amount of anti-malaria drugs that simply vanished into the stockpiles of black market traders. The WHO has a 'sqeaky clean' view of Africa thinking that their recommendations are taken notice of.

Quote from Alan Smith

Chloroquinone is not a recommended anti-malarial for use in Africa or S. America.

Chloroquine hasn't been used iIndonesia much since 2004.

The local plasmodium has been chloroquine -resistant. for a long time.

The government supplies artemesin/primaquine mix .. free. there is no cloroquine blackmarket there.

Possibly why Indonesia has far more cases recently than Africa? And Atriva in Germany might have started testing their antiviral MEK inhibitors trying to save ives judging by lower death rates.

Quote from Dr Richard

Alan Smith - there's still widespread unofficial use of chloroquine in sub-Saharan Africa to treat fevers- Bill Gates would know from the amount of anti-malaria drugs that simply vanished into the stockpiles of black market traders. The WHO has a 'sqeaky clean' view of Africa thinking that their recommendations are taken notice of.

Well if it is increasing their heath good for them! Their use of it even if it was originally intended for another disease will help with this one. The only squeaky clean continent is Antartica 😉😁.