good first test results for hydroxycloroquin: https://t.co/597yQihnDN?amp=1
Covid-19 News
- Alan Smith
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Possibly why Indonesia has far more cases recently than Africa?
Africa has less testing and less connection to Asia..
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I think it is good to keep a perspective like you are Shane. There are other viruses of different kinds, and many people have gotten sick and died from them. So why are the media (and a lot of other people) freaking out about this one way beyond some of the others? I think there are 3 reasons, and they are pretty good ones.
1. It is a new virus. When a virus is new there just isn’t a lot that is known about it. More is being learned every day, but there is still so much they don’t know. What if it develops into a different, deadlier strain? What if it is deadlier at different times of the year, or in different locations? You can play the “what if” game with this virus cause no one knows for sure.
2. It is highly contagious while people are still asymptomatic. They tested people in South Korea who felt totally fine. Not only were they positive, but when they did throat cultures on these people, some had a a very high viral load. Yet they felt fine. That’s not good for containing it. It’s why it’s so contagious.3. Perhaps the biggest one of all is just math. Just take the 1.3 multiplier that Jed has been using and run it out for a bit, and then take a .6% mortality rate, and that tells the whole story. Go out 20 or 30 days and the numbers get big.
Thankfully that type of multiplier stopped in China, and it might even be in the process of slowing in Italy, that would be awesome. But what if (what if again) that multiplier doesn’t stop in another place? The number of people would grow to a point where they would overwhelm the health system of any industrialized nation. This is a virus where a lot of people need ventilators to help them breathe. There are many stories already of not just people in their 80’s who need ventilators, but also people in their 20’s, 30’s, 40’s and 50’s. People who simply need help breathing. Yes that happens with influenza, but not on this scale. So our health system, or any other could quickly become overwhelmed by that one simple problem.
everyone would love it if this turned out to be some kind of overhyped false alarm and life went back to normal in the near future. That would be so great. For the people who say that’s what will happen, I hope they are right.The other aggravating factor is that there is no population immunity (because it is new).
A bad flu will not hit hit such a large proportion of the population (ever) because some people have enough immunity.
Put these together:
20X higher mortality than flu
more highly transmissable than flu because it sheds at high virion density for many days in asymptomatic people
can hit 100% of population (though epidemic rules mean it would never hit more than 80%)
Thus:
(1) Overall death rates high - maybe 40-80X flu
(2) Epidemics difficult to control => very large infection rate per day likely, hence very large number of simultaneous cases
(3) rate of attack gets so high that it swamps health systems.
If we did not care about loads of older people dying of pneumonia it would not be so fearsome. But we do, and we care especially when health systems are swamped and doctors must decide who lives and who dies.
China decides to lock down completely rather than have that. Could the West ignore it?
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Africa has less testing and less connection to Asia..
Plus the differences in lifestyle and more Sun could impact infection rates.
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China decides to lock down completely rather than have that. Could the West ignore it?
France has a curfew - may be Switzerland soon too and others will follow. (There are to many ignorants (idiots) out there.)
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France has a curfew - may be Switzerland soon too and others will follow. (There are to many ignorants (idiots) out there.)
IDK if it that serious to start herding grown intelligent adults around. I don't think they are ignorant some just don't care as much as they probably should in some of our eyes.
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Yes but the point is we need to use these antivirals now to avoid the impending disaster that is now occurring in Italy. How do you convince the government and health system to do this? There has been no discussion or mention of this almost certain remedy to the situation in the news or media. That is why I'm proposing using our international contacts to bypass the plodding governmental process and try and obtain a large supply from China and distribute it to those who need it most free of charge. Which is what our NHS should be doing anyway instead of all this idiotic prevarication about self isolation, herd immunity and endless pointless hand washing. For God's sake is that the best we can come up with in the C21? It sounds positively medieval!
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Many data today.
Chloroquine trial is interesting but very criticised (not blind, just viral charge measurement, short time)
Pr Raoult is ejected from expert council for his video probably... but a test will be done in Lile and Marseilles
Beware, this medication have cause muche false hope before ...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/…cle/pii/S0166354220301145
beware it is very toxy and can cause heart attack
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torsades_de_pointes
about origin, it is not a manufacture , but probably from Malay Pangolin
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
about cures, don't ignore other alternative.
Remdesivir is a candidate for serious case, but it is not certified , so you have to ask an exception allowance for humanitarian reason.
some anti-aids are also considered but does not seems to work much
https://www.rtbf.be/info/dossi…e-coronavirus?id=10458329
http://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=7428
Time to stay at home.
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Screening and treatment is essential. Roll this treatment out ASAP. Pandemic over!
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The U.S. had by far the largest 1-day increase, 1776. I would like to think this is mainly because of increased testing, but I doubt that. I believe many of the cases listed in the tally were never tested for.
This is 1.38 times yesterday's count.
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https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767
There's this as well for those in slightly more warm and humid locals!
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First 45 human volunteers are given coronavirus vaccine.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17…-browning-trnd/index.html
I admire these people.
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The U.S. had by far the largest 1-day increase, 1776. I would like to think this is mainly because of increased testing, but I doubt that. I believe many of the cases listed in the tally were never tested for.
This is 1.38 times yesterday's count.
The problem is that test results generally just give an idea of where things were 5 to 10 days ago, unless random tests of the population are done. Since testing is usually reserved for those with symptoms and more often with symptoms combined with other medical issues that suggest a person is at a large risk of serious health danger, the non-symptomatic but infected population keep unwittingly spreading the virus further. So (1.385 * present cases) might be a rough estimate of actual present infected persons.
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I admire these people.
The real heroes will be those in the octogenarian vaccine test group
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The U.S. had by far the largest 1-day increase, 1776. I would like to think this is mainly because of increased testing, but I doubt that. I believe many of the cases listed in the tally were never tested for.
This is 1.38 times yesterday's count.
I still think the numbers in the U.S. are screwed up because of the lack of testing. For example this Doctor from Johns Hopkins thinks there are currently somewhere between 50,000 and 500,000 active coronavirus cases in the U.S. That’s obviously exponentially higher than what’s been reported. Some people have thought this about China as well.There is a very good 7 minute video on here with the Doctor. It’s an interview that a lot of people should watch.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/…navirus-cases-in-usa.htmlThis Japanese company is supposedly sending over a 15 minute test for sale in the U.S. next week. It’s a blood test vs a nasal swab but who cares? Just set up drive thru blood test clinics and people can get them weekly:
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The real heroes will be those those in the octogenarian vaccine test group
Or those who volunteer to go into the stage 2 or stage 3 trials, where they are challenged with the real SARS-CO-2 virus.
(Doing mere antibody titres is no sure measure of real protection.)
That will be the clincher. It didn't go well with mice with the SARS vaccine years ago, who were challenged with the virus.
But from the video this seems to be a totally different approach which I've never heard of. If it goes well it could revolutionize vaccines in general, perhaps.
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https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/
Good read. Puts the COVID19 mortality rate into perspective, Shows that present estimates, are *only* estimates and subject to change. Mainly IMO, a change downwords. Apparently, there are many problems with the quality, and dependability of the data going into the stats. So many, guesswork plays a large part, especially, but not only, limited to the early stages of these epidemics turned pandemics:
"Countries that test more for COVID-19 tend to have lower mortality rates for the illness"
Another:
"The mortality rate in South Korea, where more than 1,100 tests have been administered per million residents, comes out to just 0.6%, for example. In the U.S., where only seven tests have been administered per million residents, the mortality rate is above 5%."
Italy is an "outlier", but there may be statistical reasons for that, and not some indication of an underlying lethality as many surmise:
"Few countries with significant testing capacity are reporting mortality rates above 2%, but Italy has proven an outlier. Even with 638 tests given per million people, the country is still reporting a mortality rate of nearly 4%. While the exact reason for the discrepancy is unclear, it could point to differences in the country’s testing strategy, the specific test it is using or something unique about the actual outbreak there."
So go ahead and read the article. Then answer this: "if the mortality could be as low as a bad flu season as they say, are the draconian, economy killing steps we are undertaking, proportional to the threat?"
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So go ahead and read the article. Then answer this: "if the mortality could be as low as a bad flu season as they say, are the draconian, economy killing steps we are undertaking, proportional to the threat?
Well, one of these screwed-up viruses is going to get us onto our knees, even if this one doesn't. So this might be viewed as a very expensive fire-drill perhaps? And seeing as we have not had one before, maybe it's time we did. Next panic, the floods.
Bizarrely, this is a US patent for a coronavirus (might come in useful).
