Covid-19 News

Quote from Shane D.

https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/

Note the numbers used in the article are bogus, at least for Switzerland, where the number shown is closer to the number of tests per day, not to the total number of tests carried until now, which is 50-100 times higher, even at the date the article was published. Here in Switzerland we do about 2000 tests a day, for a population of 8-9 mios. Also we started testing relatively early thanks to the rapid availability of the Roche RT-PCR test.

This high number of tests may look impressive at first sight, probably the world highest per resident, however since last Friday the number of people with symptoms exceed by far our capacity not to test but to collect samples. The challenge is not about the analytical capacity (as in other countries) but about the collection capacity because collection by qualified personnel takes time with important safety precautions, not saying some pressure on the availability of nasal swabs. The reason why I'm now recommending the switch to at home self blood tests, this at least to know when people under quarantine should be discharged. China is again doing right with now using the IgG and IgM antibodies test as the main tool to discharge patients regardless if they tested positive or not to the RT-PCR test.

This does not change though the overall message of the article that yes the mortality rate numbers do depend on the testing strategy and that current estimate by WHO at 3.4% is most likely too high given the high number of asymptomatic subjects.

Australian passport in China goes for jog in Beijing

Publically shamed

Loses job with Bayer,, victim of 人肉 .. cyber manhunt

Quote from Shane D.

So go ahead and read the article. Then answer this: "if the mortality could be as low as a bad flu season as they say, are the draconian, economy killing steps we are undertaking, proportional to the threat?"

I welcome the day when very citizen is trained and has their own home test for infection, of whatever kind. Imagine, no more guessing if we're infected with something. Each citizen would have the responsibility to self isolate if there was a problem, or mask up and get to the doctor. The rest are free to be out and about. Put the responsibility on the individual, not heavy handed state mandates that are inappropriate for over 90 percent of the population, and crippling to the economy and social life. (I couldn't believe that the French are now requiring citizens to carry a certain paper when they are out on the streets. Mon Dieu! )

Still, Covid19 is bad. Influenza strikes perhaps 10 percent of the population each year. Of those, .1 percent will die. Covid19 is perhaps 5 times more lethal, and perhaps 3 times more contagious. Influenza is very seasonal. Covid19 is probably year long, even though it will likely be dampened by warmer, more humid weather. So Covid19 is perhaps 3 times more persistent through the year than Influenza. Multiplying it all out, Covid19 is 5 x 3 x 3 =~ 50 times as bad as influenza in the year it strikes, severely stressing our medical system. Hopefully in perhaps two years it won't be a concern, unlike influenza.

Progress in medicine has been disappointing, imo. Maybe pandemics like CoVid19 will be a wake up call. Relatively speaking, there is not much money to be made in acute disease. Big pharma prefers more chronic conditions, coincidentally the very thing that is plaguing us more now than before, especially auto immune disorders. This applies most notably even to children. Something is messing with their immune systems so early in life. Wonder what that could be.

We need a rescue from 21st century medieval medicine. Enjoy.

......start doling out the azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine with the screening kits. We need screening, quarantine and treatment as Prof Raoult has demonstrated.

Wrong to be over cautious though. If some risk was never taken no vaccines or antibiotics would have ever been developed. Sure!y the benefits of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, favivlavir, remdesivir outweigh a few manageable side effects? Then again China and S Korea have their epidemic under control using both screening tests and treatment. But Italy is a disaster waiting to happen here unless treatment is brought in ASAP.

The sensible DR Ron Paul opinion.

https://www.presstelegram.com/…-to-coronavirus-ron-paul/

Quote from Alan Smith

Funnily enough, a friend who I discover is working on the Canadian vaccine team at UBC sent this, which he urged me to pass on.

"Seems COVID19 mutated right before its jump to North America, the "L" strain is much less dangerous but much more infectious and different symptoms which is causing a huge percent of the population to think they have a cold.

https://www.newscientist.com/a…s-and-is-one-more-deadly/

Italy tested a whole town and with this strain found that 50-70% are totally asymptomatic, that means they are walking around spreading it to everyone which causes peaks when the elderly get sick at once.

https://www.repubblica.it/salu…I251454518-C12-P3-S2.4-T1

Anecdotal reports indicate L strain symptoms present en-mass in North Americas as early as December

"L" Strain Symptoms: Sharp Edged Flush on Cheeks, Slight Runny Nose, Rest of Face Pale, Lethargy, Confusion, Hot Flashes, Diarrhoea Without Discomfort, Headache, Trouble Focusing, Shakiness, Extreme Insomnia, No Issues Breathing Until Exercise, Flush After Taking Anti-Inflammatories

These symptoms will cycle and not present at the same time which is indicative of COVID19 DO NOT TAKE NAPROXEN, IBUPROFEN OR ANY ANTI--INFLAMMATORIES

Example Symptom Progression From an Interview:

“ I’ve been so tired and so winded and just kind of moody and had a constant headache for a week and hot flashes mostly at night where it felt like I had a fever but only at night, random coughing. I figured it was just the weather and stress. Then last night came to a head—terrible brain fog yesterday could barely hold a convo, would shake (like when you’re blood sugar crashes) when I’d try to get up and do something, Had the worst migraine ever last night and terrible nausea and was throwing up. Then today this is my face with a huge rash.”

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Wife and I, (both well into our 60’s), have had many of the above symptoms.

Mine manifested as headache for 4-5 days and am: nausea, hers as runny nose and hot flashes, slight headache.

We are hunkering down playing pinochle,

(I’m losing big).

Have not been to Dr. yet, wondering if we should even go.

West of Chicago, with one eye open we wait

Quote from RobertBryant

The real heroes will be those in the octogenarian vaccine test group

There isn't an octogenarian group, is there? This video said they are all under 55. All are in good health.

Quote from Mark U

But from the video this seems to be a totally different approach which I've never heard of.

It is same as far as I know. It is happening more quickly than ever before. An expert said that is because the tools and techniques have improved. (I don't recall where I read that.)

Quote from Shane D.

So go ahead and read the article. Then answer this: "if the mortality could be as low as a bad flu season as they say, are the draconian, economy killing steps we are undertaking, proportional to the threat?"

This is wrong on many levels.

The mortality rate in Korea, the best country, is now ~1%. That's ten times worse than a bad flu season. Furthermore, 43% of Americans get a seasonal flu shot, and most of them are either immune or they have only a mild case. So that's about 14 times worse mortality than a bad flu season. Furthermore, with seasonal flu, the vaccinated 43% give the rest of the population a measure of herd immunity. So even if the cononavirus was only 0.1%, if it is not checked, 100% of the population will be vulnerable instead of 57%, so the economic impact would be larger.

The mortality rate in Korea and Japan is low because every patient is cared for, and there still ICU beds available. They can sustain the present daily number of patients indefinitely, without straining their hospital or ICU capacity. When the hospitals are swamped with people, the mortality rate goes much higher. The hospitals are swamped in Italy, and in 2 weeks they will be in the U.S. Korea is at 1% because they have hospital beds available. If the U.S. rate does not change, by April 12 there will be million new cases per day. All of the hospitals in the world could not accommodate that. The mortality rate will be ~3%, because most patients will not be cared for.

I do not think these steps are draconian. I myself would far rather stay in my house for a month than get seriously ill with the coronavirus. Even seasonal flu is no joke. It once sent me to the hospital for a week. I realize that many people cannot work, or they have to take care of children, but with unemployment insurance they can be okay. When the crisis began and the Japanese government closed the schools, they immediately put in place 70% unemployment insurance for anyone who got sick or had to stay home to take care of a family member. As far as I know, it lasts until the crisis is over. We could do that, and eliminate nearly all personal financial hazard. Tax the rich and the corporations to pay for it.

Even if these steps are draconian, they are the only sane alternative now. If we do not do them, millions of people per day will get sick, and thousands per day will die. But the need for these drastic steps was not caused by the virus. That's the key thing. This is not a symptom of the virus. It is a symptom of stupidity. It was caused by anti-science, anti-intellectual attitudes and gross ignorance. We could have easily avoided the draconian steps entirely, by doing what they did in Korea and Japan. The Chinese had to use draconian methods because they were first, and they were unprepared. Korea and Japan learned from them, and prepared. They will not experience gigantic economic jolts. They are free, democratic societies. The citizens are going along with the steps willingly, without complaint. No one considers things like drive-in testing "draconian" or onerous. Because they implemented unemployment insurance, few individuals are suffering financially. Because they have national health care, everyone is taken care of, and no one avoids the doctor because they cannot afford healthcare, so no one is out working and spreading the virus. Whereas in the U.S., 90 million people will do that. The steps now being taken in Italy, France, Spain and the U.S. were only necessary because our leaders and our citizens are idiots. We brought this catastrophe on ourselves. We could have avoided it.

Quote from Alan Smith

A rush into potentially risky vaccines and therapies will betray that trust and discourage work to develop better assessments.

That is a sensible policy for now. But, if the present steps fail and we have a million new cases per day in mid-April, and ~1,000 deaths per day, that will no longer be a sensible policy. If that happens, I think they should immediately begin widespread vaccination on large groups of volunteers, to see if the vaccine works. I realize that is a risky thing to do, but letting a thousand people die per day is not risky, it is catastrophic. It will lead to millions of deaths in the U.S. Risking the health of a group of volunteers is worth the trade-off. I would volunteer immediately, if I were asked.

The present steps have had no effect in the U.S. The rate is actually increasing. Perhaps it is too soon to see the curve start to flatten. It appears to be flattening in Italy, Spain and the UK, thank goodness.

Quote from Shane D.

Here is another opinion from the people that know stats:

The title is:

"A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data"

That is completely wrong. The experts in China, Korea and Japan now have highly reliable data. They have it for tens of thousands of patients, and hundreds of thousands of healthy people who were tested. The data covers many weeks of illness. That is a long time in this case, because this illness seldom lasts longer than 2 weeks. (It would not be useful if this lasted for months or years, as some diseases do.) People either recover or die more quickly than the timespan of this data. The data covers every age range and state of health. It covers people who got the best ICU care available, and people who could not be cared for because the hospitals in China were initially swamped. So this data is statistically significant in every dimension, for every purpose.

Let me rewrite that headline to reflect reality: "We in the United State are making decisions without reliable data because we are ignoring the Chinese, Korean and Japanese data, along with their recommendations. What is worse, we using the garbage data from the U.S. healthcare system, which is worse than the Iranian data, according to the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. He said, 'This is an unmitigated disaster that the administration has brought upon the population.'"

Quote from JedRothwell

This is wrong on many levels.

The mortality rate in Korea, the best country, is now ~1%. That's ten times worse than a bad flu season. Furthermore, 43% of Americans get a seasonal flu shot, and most of them are either immune or they have only a mild case. So that's about 14 times worse mortality than a bad flu season. Furthermore, with seasonal flu, the vaccinated 43% give the rest of the population a measure of herd immunity. So even if the cononavirus was only 0.1%, if it is not checked, 100% of the population will be vulnerable instead of 57%, so the economic impact would be larger.

The mortality rate in Korea and Japan is low because every patient is cared for, and there still ICU beds available. They can sustain the present daily number of patients indefinitely, without straining their hospital or ICU capacity. When the hospitals are swamped with people, the mortality rate goes much higher. The hospitals are swamped in Italy, and in 2 weeks they will be in the U.S. Korea is at 1% because they have hospital beds available. If the U.S. rate does not change, by April 12 there will be million new cases per day. All of the hospitals in the world could not accommodate that. The mortality rate will be ~3%, because most patients will not be cared for.

I do not think these steps are draconian. I myself would far rather stay in my house for a month than get seriously ill with the coronavirus. Even seasonal flu is no joke. It once sent me to the hospital for a week. I realize that many people cannot work, or they have to take care of children, but with unemployment insurance they can be okay. When the crisis began and the Japanese government closed the schools, they immediately put in place 70% unemployment insurance for anyone who got sick or had to stay home to take care of a family member. As far as I know, it lasts until the crisis is over. We could do that, and eliminate nearly all personal financial hazard. Tax the rich and the corporations to pay for it.

Even if these steps are draconian, they are the only sane alternative now. If we do not do them, millions of people per day will get sick, and thousands per day will die. But the need for these drastic steps was not caused by the virus. That's the key thing. This is not a symptom of the virus. It is a symptom of stupidity. It was caused by anti-science, anti-intellectual attitudes and gross ignorance. We could have easily avoided the draconian steps entirely, by doing what they did in Korea and Japan. The Chinese had to use draconian methods because they were first, and they were unprepared. Korea and Japan learned from them, and prepared. They will not experience gigantic economic jolts. They are free, democratic societies. The citizens are going along with the steps willingly, without complaint. No one considers things like drive-in testing "draconian" or onerous. Because they implemented unemployment insurance, few individuals are suffering financially. Because they have national health care, everyone is taken care of, and no one avoids the doctor because they cannot afford healthcare, so no one is out working and spreading the virus. Whereas in the U.S., 90 million people will do that. The steps now being taken in Italy, France, Spain and the U.S. were only necessary because our leaders and our citizens are idiots. We brought this catastrophe on ourselves. We could have avoided it.

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Not sure South Korea can be used as a realistic sample for any of this.

There is 0 human foot/vehicle traffic crossing borders from different counties into SK, it’s a peninsula, like Florida, only smaller, about the size of Indiana.

The only way for people/good/services to get into SK is by plane or boat.

When the virus was 1st detected in SK, it is much easier to halt and quarantine air traffic and boat traffic.

This type of containment would not be possible in say, Indiana, or anywhere in the US save Hawaii.

One aspect is for sure, we’re gonna learn a lot about recognition, reaction and mobilization after this.