Quote from Roseland67

Not sure South Korea can be used as a realistic sample for any of this.

There is 0 human foot/vehicle traffic crossing borders from different counties into SK, it’s a peninsula, like Florida, only smaller, about the size of Indiana.

Nearly every case in S. Korea, Japan and the U.S. was from someone else already in the country. A handful of patients China started all of these infections. They were patient zero in a chain of infections. All of the ones that followed were from patient 1, 2, 3 . . . all of them natives. It just takes one person to start an epidemic. This epidemic, when uncontrolled, spreads at a rate of 1.3 per day. Here's how it works:

Take 1 person. Multiply by 1.3 (in other words, no infection the next day). multiply that by 1.3 . . . Now you have 2 people. On day 5 you have 3 people. On day 30 you have 2,015 people. You don't need anyone else coming in from outside the country. You have a full scale epidemic underway.

On day 100, you have 190 million people infected. Starting from one person.

You and Mr. Trump seem to think we can stop an epidemic by closing the borders. That's wrong. That can only work if not a single infected person enters, ever.

I wouldn't be influenced by such 'sour grapes' opinions from other virologists - the results are straighforward, consistent with other studies in China and S.Korea. So he's being accused of sensationalism, carelessness, published his own papers concealing previous problems? Sounds a bit like the treatment some of our LENR researchers suffer from the establishment which would make me more convinced that his work is genuine. Why aren't the French applying this treatment to all vulnerable patients and why isn't it being employed worlwide? Plain stupid ignorance.

Quote from Shane D.

You were around for the 2009/2010 Swine Flu pandemic. In the early days of it, were you as alarmed of it's potential mortality, espousing the same "shut everything down" approach as you are now? I am curious, because I have read up on that pandemic.

No. Nor did I react that way to SARS. It is not the mortality rate alone that counts. It is mortality plus the infection rate. Furthermore, a disease with a very high mortality rate can be self-limiting. If the disease is apparent soon after the infection, and it kills the patient quickly, the patient usually dies before infecting anyone else. It is actually easier to stop the spread of such diseases. The R0 is low.

I was not in favor of the "shut everything down" strategy in the U.S. at first, because there was no need for it. They have not shut everything down in Korea or Japan, and they are fine. The epidemic is under control. Even if several more sick people come into the country, they will be detected, quarantined, and cured. The "shut everything down" strategy was needed in China at first, especially in Wuhan, but it is now being undone in stages. The country is opening up and going back to work. Like Korea and Japan, it has the epidemic under control. No doubt cases will flare up, but they will be tracked, and every person who is infected -- or might be infected -- will be quarantined and tested.

This method was invented by the Chinese in January. It would never have been possible in any previous epidemic. It depends on the internet, big data, and other 21st century tools that were not available in the past. Also, it depends on massive deployment of test kits. It works. There is no question about that. If other countries had done what China, Korea and Japan did, this pandemic would have been stopped. We would have ~150 cases per day in the U.S., and the numbers would not be rising. It would be a steady state until a vaccine is deployed.

A few weeks ago, I took it for granted that Europe and the U.S. would use similar methods.

Unfortunately, the U.S. has not implemented a single aspect of the Chinese method. No testing, no follow up, no tracing cases, no quarantine. No accounting for cases, and no treatment. In Georgia today, you cannot even see a doctor if you have the coronavirus. They tell you not to come to the hospital, according to today's Atlanta Journal. They cannot even add your case to the totals for the state, because no doctor or nurse checks you, tests you, or records the case. This is medical malpractice. It is much worse than that. It is manslaughter, mass murder, and public health lunacy. It may lead to millions of deaths. It is the policy of doing nothing. Not responding or even trying to contain the outbreak. It is the worst possible response to an epidemic.

Given that U.S. leaders are lunatics, totally unfit to deal with this, our only option is to "shut everything down," like medieval peasants responding to the Black Death. We might as well have no idea what causes it and no modern medicine if our only response is to do what people did in 1347. We are not even doing as much as Americans did in 1918. We must shut everything down because the medical establishment has failed us, and the administration has brought "an unmitigated disaster upon the population." We have no good options left. Even if we still have the power to implement the Chinese method, it is clear that no one has any plans to do so. Shutting down is the best of the remaining catastrophic options.

Trump marveled that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose popularity. (He never meant he wanted to do that, but only that his popularity is Teflon tough.) XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX-- people who could easily have been saved -- and yet still be re-elected. If he is re-elected it will prove that Americans have turned their backs on science and technology. These things were our birthright and the best things we have contributed to civilization. The tools that China, Korea and Japan use using to control this virus include public health techniques, data analysis, the internet, big data computing, and so on. All of them were invented in the UK and the United States! Yet we are not using them.

Edited for content by Shane.

Why so few CoV deaths in Africa? Not (mainly) because of Chloroquine!

Quote from Dr Richard

I wouldn't be influenced by such 'sour grapes' opinions from other virologists - the results are straighforward, consistent with other studies in China and S.Korea. So he's being accused of sensationalism, carelessness, published his own papers concealing previous problems? Sounds a bit like the treatment some of our LENR researchers suffer from the establishment which would make me more convinced that his work is genuine. Why aren't the French applying this treatment to all vulnerable patients and why isn't it being employed worlwide? Plain stupid ignorance.

Oh, I think there are doctors all over throwing different things at this to see what may work. See the article below. They just need to test for efficacy and safety as quickly as possible. Hope we start to see published results on a few of them in the next 2-3 weeks, and something is shown to help.

https://www.businessinsider.co…onavirus-treatment-2020-3

Quote from JedRothwell

The steps now being taken in Italy, France, Spain and the U.S. were only necessary because our leaders and our citizens are idiots.

....

You and Mr. Trump seem to think we can stop an epidemic by closing the borders. That's wrong. That can only work if not a single infected person enters, ever.

Jed,

You are letting your hatred for Trump show through!

How come no pissing on Germany? Their stats are escalating worse (and higher levels) than the US. They MUST ALSO have idiots for leaders and civilians!

How come 70+ countries have restricted or closed their borders such as Germany, Canada, New Zealand and many European countries? They must not agree with you, but then you know better do you not?

https://www.nytimes.com/articl…-travel-restrictions.html

Do not get me wrong... this is a bad situation and there will be many to suffer from it.

It just pisses me off that arm chair quarter backs criticize and spew. It is easy to talk when when one does not have to accomplish the tasks or the political mine fields one has to wade through.

China is a absolute authoritarian government. People disappear for simply criticizing the governments actions.

https://www.dw.com/en/chinese-…virus-response/a-52780850

If you were in China stating the things you do here about your country, you would be in jail.

I for one, will still live in the US and trust it's medical care any day over China's. I will trust our government ANY day over China's.

And while I do not agree with Trump on many things, I will take him ANY day over Xi Jinping!

Yes, things are bad. But as Shane has stated, there will be a HUGE price to pay for these actions. People sitting in their comfortable retirement chairs are not feeling the issues like us who have business, employees and many responsibilities. I too am unsure if the cure will be worse than the sickness! I AM UNSURE, not POSITIVE. IT IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER and SHOULD be in the mix.

No this is not a good situation. Pissing at people does no good either. You think Bernie or Biden would do better? Of course they would....., at least in the eyes of their supporters. In reality, Bernie would be an absolue disaster and Biden's VP would be running the show as Biden probably could not survive the stress.

Our healthcare system would not / could not have handled this under Obama either! It simply was not ready for such a situation under any president. Trump did not tear down our health system.

So what about Germany.... a bunch of idiots as well?

Quote from Bob#2

So what about Germany..

There are idiots in all countiries

https://english.kyodonews.net/…es-at-japan-hospital.html

Infected man in Japan who wanted to "spread virus" dies

seven_of_twenty wrote :

fabrice DAVID

Quote

#899

It is very unlikely that natural evolution spontaneously integrated parts of the HIV GAG and GP 120 genes into a bat virus.

https://www.biorxiv.org/conten…iwnj04czziY3y0goOikRgUyPE

I am sorely tempted to insult you but under the exigent circumstances, I'll abstain from it. So please read the comments following this paper or letter which appeared on the internet without peer review. I am not a virologist but many who are left credible comments which basically not only call bullshit on the idea but also explain exactly why. This sort of specious claim does nobody any good and wastes reading time and energy. If you want to mention that a few people believe the theory, fine. But please please please stop presenting it as fact.

I did not have time to verify the statements of Prashant Pradhan et al, but their statements seem reasonable to me.

This is not a peer-rewiewed article. So what ? If we had to wait until NATURE published the article by Pons & Fleischman in 1989, we would still be waiting for publication ...

It turns out that I published an article on the detection of the GAG gene a long time ago:

https://www.researchgate.net/p…hermal_gene_amplification

(This paper was refused by NATURE...)

So, what the Indian authors say seems to me to be consistent with the observations of the symptoms of severe cases of the coronavirus: an explosive lymphopenia which produces in one week the result of the evolution of untreated AIDS in three years!

Here's what the authors say:

“We are currently witnessing a major epidemic caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The evolution of 2019-nCoV remains elusive. We found 4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the 2019-nCoV and are not present in other coronaviruses. Importantly, amino acid residues in all the 4 inserts have identity or similarity to those in the HIV-1 gp120 or HIV-1 Gag. Interestingly, despite the inserts being discontinuous on the primary amino acid sequence, 3D-modelling of the 2019-nCoV suggests that they converge to constitute the receptor binding site. The finding of 4 unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV, all of which have identity /similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1 is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature. This work provides yet unknown insights on 2019-nCoV and sheds light on the evolution and pathogenicity of this virus with important implications for diagnosis of this virus.”

The fact that the coronavirus targets lymphocytes is very bad news for the manufacture of a vaccine. We have all known for thirty years that it is very difficult to make a vaccine against a virus that kills lymphocytes and that is why Professor Raoult insists on the need to find a medicine.

Even if Didier Raoult has the same look as the mad scientist from the film "Independance Day", he is a very great researcher and he deserved the Nobel Prize. (Even if he always declined my collaboration proposals, but that is another story ...)

He was the first to see that the “cocci” (round bacteria) observed in amoebae were in fact giant viruses. These giant viruses are present in many ecosystems, and they are found in many organisms, including human blood cells and brain astrocytes (unpublished results)

Getting back to the coronavirus, paracetamol will undoubtedly kill more people than the virus itself. The virus gives a very headache, and when you have Big Ben behind the frontal bone, it is very easy to exceed the dose of 3 grams per day.

I suggest you take aspirin, but not paracetamol or ibuprofen.

This is curfew in France now, and of course, I don't respect it because I am preparing an experiment on diafluidity for the next ISCMMN conference and my workshop is at the other end of town. The streets are empty and the police have fined at the bottom of my street on a poor DELIVEROO delivery man. It feels like World War Z.

Ah, I forgot: nobody talks about the Tokyo Olympics. It seems totally unrealistic to me to want to organize the games for two reasons:

1) The situation is not completely resolved at Fukushima.

2) In August, it will be southern winter, and it would not be reasonable to send South African, Chilean, Argentinian athletes to be contaminated in Japan to bring the coronavirus home in the middle of winter, in countries where the medical system is less solid than in the northern hemisphere (the case of Australians is separate)

But let me close with a more optimistic consideration: for many scientists, it is impossible to find drugs that kill viruses, because the viruses would not be alive.

That's right: a virion (viral particle) has none of the characteristics of a living being.

But is a mustard seed alive? Put a bushel in a diorite vase cut with a cedar lathe with a diamond tool, (or better, in an alabaster jar to avoid the radioactivity of the diorite), enclose it in a pyramid on the plateau of Egypt and seal the granite harrows of Thot's secret chambers: protected by SASP and dipicolinic acids and other protectors, their DNA will cross the centuries as if it were protected by amber from Jurassic Park. Take out the seeds 5000 years later: sow them and many will germinate and give a beautiful shrub on which the birds will perch.

These shrubs will be sensitive to glyphosate: touch one of their leaves with a finger immersed in a can of Roundup, and the next day, all the leaves will have dried out in the desert sun.

It's the same with viruses. The virus is not a living being. It's just its seed, its spore, its form of resistance and spread.

The real living being that does not have a name, it is this ghostly form that we sometimes see on some photographs with the electron microscope, occupying part of the nucleus and the cytoplasm. Like "Face Huggers" growing in the stomach of a NOSTROMO astronaut, these Aliens mother hundreds of virions in our cells which will be released when they burst.

And during this phase, their enzymes are active, and these enzymes will be sensitive to drugs that remain to be discovered. Even better: their DNA is active, and it is therefore exposed to the combat techniques that we will able to develop.

I wanted to finish this post on these optimistic considerations.

https://www.researchgate.net/p…0GEiwDk7VWN4pouljl8Ydov3g

Hmmm, closing the borders.

Reminds me of a true story told a few weeks ago on the radio by an expert on epidemics.

Some years ago he was advising the UK government and there was an epidemic.

The minister said well we must close the borders and suspend flights to the effected countries.

The expert said; but there is no point minister because the virus will already be here.

The minister said, yes that is the science, but the politics says if I do not close the borders then on Monday the press will scream blue murder and have my head.

Quote from Bob#2

You are letting your hatred for Trump show through!

I am not Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. I was quoting him.

Quote from Bob#2

How come 70+ countries have restricted or closed their borders such as Germany, Canada, New Zealand and many European countries? They must not agree with you, but then you know better do you not?

Every public health expert and epidemiologist agrees that once an epidemic takes hold, and transmission is from one person to another within the country, closing the borders has no effect. Of course you should test and quarantine anyone who comes in.

Quote from JedRothwell

Nearly every case in S. Korea, Japan and the U.S. was from someone else already in the country. A handful of patients China started all of these infections. They were patient zero in a chain of infections. All of the ones that followed were from patient 1, 2, 3 . . . all of them natives. It just takes one person to start an epidemic. This epidemic, when uncontrolled, spreads at a rate of 1.3 per day. Here's how it works:

Take 1 person. Multiply by 1.3 (in other words, no infection the next day). multiply that by 1.3 . . . Now you have 2 people. On day 5 you have 3 people. On day 30 you have 2,015 people. You don't need anyone else coming in from outside the country. You have a full scale epidemic underway.

On day 100, you have 190 million people infected. Starting from one person.

You and Mr. Trump seem to think we can stop an epidemic by closing the borders. That's wrong. That can only work if not a single infected person enters, ever.

Display More

Me and mr trump have little to nothing in common other than his mother and my mother were both mothers.

The gist of my rant was obvious, why you interpreted it as political is beyond my understanding.

Why stop at 190 million Jed, go to 109 days and infect the entire country. You’re simply doing math. If we are to assume that is true, correct and uncontrollable, then start hoarding, because Mad Max times are imminent.

I do not believe that the entire country will be infected with Covid 19. It is possible, sure but I do not think it is probable.

Testing is virtually useless now, so is closing borders.

Quote from Bob#2

Jed,

You are letting your hatred for Trump show through!

How come no pissing on Germany? Their stats are escalating worse (and higher levels) than the US. They MUST ALSO have idiots for leaders and civilians!

How come 70+ countries have restricted or closed their borders such as Germany, Canada, New Zealand and many European countries? They must not agree with you, but then you know better do you not?

https://www.nytimes.com/articl…-travel-restrictions.html

Do not get me wrong... this is a bad situation and there will be many to suffer from it.

It just pisses me off that arm chair quarter backs criticize and spew. It is easy to talk when when one does not have to accomplish the tasks or the political mine fields one has to wade through.

China is a absolute authoritarian government. People disappear for simply criticizing the governments actions.

https://www.dw.com/en/chinese-…virus-response/a-52780850

If you were in China stating the things you do here about your country, you would be in jail.

I for one, will still live in the US and trust it's medical care any day over China's. I will trust our government ANY day over China's.

And while I do not agree with Trump on many things, I will take him ANY day over Xi Jinping!

Yes, things are bad. But as Shane has stated, there will be a HUGE price to pay for these actions. People sitting in their comfortable retirement chairs are not feeling the issues like us who have business, employees and many responsibilities. I too am unsure if the cure will be worse than the sickness! I AM UNSURE, not POSITIVE. IT IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER and SHOULD be in the mix.

No this is not a good situation. Pissing at people does no good either. You think Bernie or Biden would do better? Of course they would....., at least in the eyes of their supporters. In reality, Bernie would be an absolue disaster and Biden's VP would be running the show as Biden probably could not survive the stress.

Our healthcare system would not / could not have handled this under Obama either! It simply was not ready for such a situation under any president. Trump did not tear down our health system.

So what about Germany.... a bunch of idiots as well?

Display More

Germany's long term idea of a green energy political policy is rubbish to me on first glance, complete dependence on weather is a bad idea. So maybe they are doing something else wrong. Lifestyle/geography is more important than closed boarders so far.

New cases in the U.S. today are at 2,582. There will probably be more before midnight. The daily increase in the U.S. is now 1.4, up from 1.3.

If the rate continues at 1.3, by March 31 there will be 272,000 cases, 78,000 new cases per day. By April 27 the projection is the entire U.S. population, but that is biologically impossible.

In Italy, the increase for the last 4 days was 1.0, 0.9, 1.1 and 1.2. It was 1.3 from March 1 to March 13:

(my graph, not worldmeters)

I conclude the "shut everything down" approach is not working well, and it is definitely not sufficient to avoid a catastrophe. It has not had time to take effect in the U.S., but if it only works as well as it has in Italy, it is likely that millions of Americans will die. Not hundreds of thousands; millions. The number is higher because the hospitals will be swamped. The curve is not flattening out at all so far. Even if it does start to flatten, I doubt it will be enough. There will be far more people needing beds and ICU bed that the total available. All of the hospitals in the world will not suffice.

Quote from Roseland67

Why stop at 190 million Jed, go to 109 days and infect the entire country. You’re simply doing math. If we are to assume that is true, correct and uncontrollable

I stopped at 190 million because experts say that is the upper limit to fraction of the population that can be infected. I wouldn't know, but they say that after a while herd immunity prevents further infections.

I am not simply doing math. I am doing classic biology, that has been known since the 17th century. Everyone who understand epidemics does this math, and in uncontrolled circumstances with no changes such as weather, this is how the curve looks at this stage.

Quote from Roseland67

I do not believe that the entire country will be infected with Covid 19. It is possible, sure but I do not think it is probable.

No, it is not possible.

If it stops at 190 million in mid-April, and the mortality rate is 3.5%, as it is in a country with no functioning hospitals, that will be ~6.7 million dead. At the peak of the curve, for several weeks, the U.S. will have effectively no functioning hospitals. The hospitals we have will not be able to treat more than a small fraction of the patients.

If the curve can be flattened, even if 190 million are infected by August or September, fatalities will be much lower because the hospitals will be able to treat more patients. As some recover, there will be room for others.

I know there are articles like this popping up in different places. But this one has made more hopeful than anything I have read so far. Just need a drug like this to buy time until we get to a vaccine.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/jap…-effective-114020934.html