Covid-19 News

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotli…works-against-coronavirus

The patent for Avigan favipiravir.. has expired in China.. clearing the way for mass production

Quote from JedRothwell

I stopped at 190 million because experts say that is the upper limit to fraction of the population that can be infected. I wouldn't know, but they say that after a while herd immunity prevents further infections.

I am not simply doing math. I am doing classic biology, that has been known since the 17th century. Everyone who understand epidemics does this math, and in uncontrolled circumstances with no changes such as weather, this is how the curve looks at this stage.

No, it is not possible.

If it stops at 190 million in mid-April, and the mortality rate is 3.5%, as it is in a country with no functioning hospitals, that will be ~6.7 million dead. At the peak of the curve, for several weeks, the U.S. will have effectively no functioning hospitals. The hospitals we have will not be able to treat more than a small fraction of the patients.

If the curve can be flattened, even if 190 million are infected by August or September, fatalities will be much lower because the hospitals will be able to treat more patients. As some recover, there will be room for others.

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If you pair what you wrote with the article below, I would just echo what you and others have said that the best thing to do is shut the country down for 30 days. The capacity of our health system simply isn’t there if the numbers get to even 10-15% of what you are stating here. There seem to be a few arguing on this board that a shutdown of the economy is worse than the disease. Overwhelming our hospitals is the worst thing that can happen. Doctors will start having to make choices about who does and doesn’t get treatment. Unless we can flatten the curve fast, that is where this is going. To all who think this is unwarranted hype. I can’t say how much I hope you are right.

https://www.usatoday.com/story…s-mayo-clinic/5032523002/

Quote from ZenoOfElea

The expert said; but there is no point minister because the virus will already be here.

closing borders - well perhaps one strain is here but it mutates. It might still be wise to close the border to keep out any that might have mutated. I think that is the problem in Italy. It just might have a different and more virulent strain.

How one small Italian town cut coronavirus cases to zero in just a few weeks

the town was put on lockdown, and all 3,300 residents were tested for coronavirus.....

This mass testing revealed that about 3% of residents were infected with the virus, and of these, about half did not show any symptoms,...….

The lesson we learned is that isolating all positive cases, whether they were sick or not, we were able to reduce transmission by 90 percent," Andrea Cristani, a professor of microbiology at the University of Padua in Italy who helped carry out the testing, told RFI.

https://www.livescience.com/sm…avirus-cases-testing.html

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The real heroes will be those in the octogenarian vaccine test group

Why? The current trial uses no live virus, not even an attenuated strain. It's all synthetic and not infective to cells. The experimental "challenge" at the end is the production of antibodies, not resistance to actual infection. That will be determined way down the line in double blind tests with huge numbers of people "in the wild." Probably in a high incidence location. See the development of the polio vaccine for a good model.

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Or those who volunteer to go into the stage 2 or stage 3 trials, where they are challenged with the real SARS-CO-2 virus.

I don't think this can be done, not in the US anyway. Large scale tests can be done with populations from high incidence areas. And vaccinated test subjects can be "challenged" (given) with inactivated virus to see if they develop antibodies. It would be unconscionable to expose human subjects to live virus deliberately for any reason.

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Might be useful source of face masks in case of shortages. No guarantees, but I have always found banggood to be dependable at least.

https://www.banggood.com/20pcs…L7fKfhEF&cur_warehouse=CN

I took a quick look at the email from their mailing list which I am on. They have one "N95" mask which they say is reusable and costs $20 US. each. That is high! N95 masks are maybe reusable after minimal exposure if carefully dried and slightly heated and left to dry several days to be sure the virus if any is dead. It's really best to use new ones. They have another mask which relies on replaceable cloth layers of some type. If you are not in the US, your email could be very different.

My personal take on Bang Good is that it is OK for some low power electronics. I have bought a mix of stuff over the years and much of it was sketchy or shoddy. I would not get life support sort of stuff from these guys but that is just my opinion and based only on what I got from them shipped to the US.

Quote from Curbina

About Italy's numbers, there's the hypothesis that they might have reached their operational capacity of confirming new cases and deprioritized this stage, as really they are completely overwhelmed already. I think this is plaussible, but we won't get it confirmed or denied.

I think this is highly possible. They have to be feeling a shortage of healthcare workers at this point. With the number of active cases there I imagine they have gotten to the stage of their healthcare system being overwhelmed.

If anyone wants a perspective on this, the U.S., Germany and Spain each had more new cases today than Italy had for its new cases 5 days ago, which was 2547.

One of the hardest things I read in that USA Today article above is that some doctors believe that Iran doesn’t have anywhere near the health system necessary to treat its people and they are likely at the point of letting the virus course through their population without doing much to test or treat it.

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You were around for the 2009/2010 Swine Flu pandemic. In the early days of it, were you as alarmed of it's potential mortality, espousing the same "shut everything down" approach as you are now? I am curious, because I have read up on that pandemic.

Not the same thing. And also the Swine Flu Pandemic was under-reacted to and killed many more people than it needed to, especially outside of the US.

https://www.wwltv.com/article/…a2-44c1-9fff-ad1c8bfb2739

I apologize if some points I make were already made by others. It is exhausting to keep up with this string and unfortunately, while some information is very informative, much of it is at best unhelpful and misleading.

Sorry if this was posted before, it's hard to keep up. It's about some very preliminary but promising, controlled (more or less) trials of hydroxychloroquine and azythromycin in reducing viral load in human patients who had COVID-19 infections.

Expect a PDF download or display depending on how your system is setup. I tried it and no malware warnings.

https://www.mediterranee-infec…oquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf

I have not read the details yet. I do know from the TV interview I saw that it was not a blinded study nor was it randomized. It is a very small series of appx 20 subjects who got the drugs and 20 who did not. The control subjects were in no way matched with the experimental subjects so please: THIS IS A VERY WEAK STUDY. Nonetheless, if it is borne out, it is very exciting. Both hydroxychloroquine (or chloroquine) and azithromycin should be cheap and readily available in large quantities. And they are relatively safe, Certainly safer than having a significant infection with COVID-19. And it should not take too long to replicate in a much more "rigorous" fashion. So promising (all patients receiving the drug went to zero virus levels) but weakly controlled and:

- not matched subjects

- not randomly split between controls and experimental group

- not blinded

- very small "series" (groups)

So be optimistic but also be skeptical.

A.R. is taking the CV seriously.

1. Andrea Rossi March 18, 2020 at 3:02 PM

   Rodney Nicholson:

   This virus must be taken very, very, very seriously and in the whole world everybody must obey completely all the directions given from the governments ( with the exception of the new Mengeles and the modern Dr Strangeloves ). Everybody must stay home, wear masks, goggles and gloves when they must necessarily go out , wash your hands as often as possible, maintain a distance of at least 1.5 meters (5 ft) between each other. This is a matter of life or death. Be humble, don’t brave the virus if you are really brave. To brave the virus is not brave, it is stupid and criminal toward the others.

   Warm Regards,

   A.R.

You MAY be able to purchase Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine) direct, probably from India, using this link:

http://24x7globalmed.com/categories/Other/Plaquenil

I did receive what looks like chloroquine from these guys in around two weeks and I posted it at the time with images. It appears to be legitimate and from India. Two weeks was with their $20 optional shipping method. Note that the site says it is secure. My browser says it is not. So I gave them a Citibank virtual credit card with a $250 limit. That will be the most they can steal from me and the card number expires in a month and can't access my accounts in any way. You can check out the process on Google in case your bank offers it. It is very reassuring.

At this time I did not read the full paper and do not know the dose yet.

This is the same source but for Azithromycin: http://24x7globalmed.com/categ…ithromax%20(azithromycin)

Azithromycin has a long half life in the human body. Normally it is sold in the US as a "dosepack". After a loading dose of either 500 mg or one gram, depending on the infection, you take an additional pill (250mg or 500mg) per day for 3 to 5 days, again depending on what you are treating. Again, I did not study the paper so I don't know their recommendations for dose and time.

BOTH OF THESE MEDICATIONS HAVE RISKS! MORE SO FOR OLDER PEOPLE AND/OR THOSE WITH HEART PROBLEMS. CHECK WITH YOUR HEALTH PROFESSIONAL, PREFERABLY A MEDICAL DOCTOR!

You may want to print this out in case you need it later. If I was doing badly with COVID-19, I would not hesitate to try this treatment as soon as my fever got high and/or there was evidence of lower lung infection. If I tested positive and had symptoms, I would take this treatment.

Let's hope it bears out and soon.

ETA to add: Three links for overseas (maybe India?) pharmacies from another forum. IMPORTANT: ALL PRECAUTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE APPLY EVEN MORE TO THESE. I have not personally tried from these sites but the original poster said he had.

https://pharmacysearch.net/drug/Plaquenil (Hydroxychloroquine generic is what you might get)

https://pharmacysearch.net/drug/Aralen (chloroquine generic is what you might get)

https://pharmacysearch.net/drug/Azithromycin

I found this web site confusing - it seems to be an aggregator and I have no idea how you would choose a specific pharmacy and don't have time to try it out.

Remember, azithromycin is very common and can almost certainly be ordered in your home country with a prescription.

Quote from LeBob

Germany's long term idea of a green energy political policy is rubbish to me on first glance, complete dependence on weather is a bad idea. So maybe they are doing something else wrong. Lifestyle/geography is more important than closed boarders so far.

LeBob,

Perhaps my point was not worded well.

I am not defending closed borders in itself. Although the latest is now local travel bans (politically correct term "Shelter in Place") as California has implemented. So local travel bans OK, but international travel bans are silly? hmmmm...

I was expressing my dismay at "arm chair quarter backs" calling others idiots and perhaps implying intentional detrimental actions. Some here have little to no "stake in the game". Their pension is set. They are not in the front lines of this battle as some of us.

My only point is that this has become extremely political. Just like Wyttenbach sits back and calls the vast majority of physicists in the world, "morons" because they use the standard model and do not herald his SO4 view (unproven as it might be), others here are using the Covid19 disaster to sling political dung and show how "enlightened" they are. Whether in particle physics or epidemic management, we certainly have the "world's foremost authorities here" and they will say so!

One can hide behind "expert" articles. Yes, and one can find "expert" articles defending any position. The current administration has some very respected people on the task force. But they are "idiots" because they are not imitating China? Those same people under a different administration would be heralded as world renown experts.

Simply put, there are other, intelligent and informed opinions. The current administration has not been perfect. Most certainly. China CERTAINLY has not been, especially early on. Neither has Germany or others. Playing this out that the US is completely inept is nothing but political BS. Yes, expert A may say so, but expert B will refute it.

My point was to call out the political BS. I have nothing against Germany. It is just that they are in as bad a position as the US, yet no dissing of their leaders, thus an example of political bias. Still no word on why Germans are not idiots.... Oh wait.... it does not support the narrative.

One on this forum has the ego to call thousands of very intelligent physicists morons. Even to the point of being monetarily corrupt. Another here is bent on dissing the current administration. Even though the vast majority of health issues is done at the local and state level, involving thousands of decision makers, the blame goes to one person!

Jerome Adams, Deborah Birx, Anthony Fauci, Robert Redfield and many others do not deserve to be called idiots, both from their professional pedigree and from historical track record!

Playing with numbers on spread sheets and then calling those with unbelievable complexity in managing this affair idiots, certainly does not impress me any.

It is no wonder that most serious scientist do not post here.... (Magicsound is an exception )

Oh well, unlike several here, I have to go and figure out how to keep a business from bankrupting, how to pay vendors, maintain employees and their benefits, support a local economy, pay taxes, try to build a retirement fund and mow the grass. All while others make the decision to shutdown the economy.

Yes, I could also get sick, I am 60 ..... but then I live in the real world.

Quote from oldguy

How one small Italian town cut coronavirus cases to zero in just a few weeks

the town was put on lockdown, and all 3,300 residents were tested for coronavirus.....

This mass testing revealed that about 3% of residents were infected with the virus, and of these, about half did not show any symptoms,...….

This is why testing is so critical.

Quote from Bob#2

Playing with numbers on spread sheets and then calling those with unbelievable complexity in managing this affair idiots, certainly does not impress me any.

The numbers I am using come from authoritative sources. All of the projections I have made for the past 2 weeks have been spot on. The trend has not changed. This is the easiest kind of projection you can make. It is straight out of 18th century biology. Similar graphs have been published in every newspaper. If this were "playing" with numbers my predictions would be far off by now.

Experts worldwide have said that the administration and the U.S. medical establishment has made terrible mistakes. They say this is an "unmitigated disaster" (Harvard Global Health Institute director). They say hundreds of thousand and possibly millions of people may die unnecessarily, because the U.S. ignored the lessons taught in China, Korea and Japan. If that is not idiotic, what would be? This is quite a lot like ordering soldiers to walk upright into machine gun fire in WWI.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

I don't think this can be done, not in the US anyway. Large scale tests can be done with populations from high incidence areas. And vaccinated test subjects can be "challenged" (given) with inactivated virus to see if they develop antibodies. It would be unconscionable to expose human subjects to live virus deliberately for any reason.

Mostly true. As you say, the volunteers could be challenged with an inactivated ('dead') virus. Bits and pieces of what once was a virus.

But they could also be challenged with a weakened, "attenuated" strain of the real live virus. From

https://drug-dev.com/clinical-…t-viral-challenge-trials/

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Although they are occasionally run in sick patients, most viral challenge studies are carried out in healthy volunteers. Subjects are given a challenge strain, which is normally an attenuated virus that, in theory, produces a milder set of symptoms than would the original virus. The investigational antiviral vaccine or drug is administered to the subject, either before the viral challenge is made if the test is for prophylaxis, or afterward if the aim is treatment. Depending on the virus being tested, the volunteer may then be quarantined for a sufficient amount of time to prevent cross-infection, or spreading the virus to the general population.

I presume they will do at least one kind of preliminary challenge to a subset of the volunteers. If they don't, and a larger vaccinated test population in a high incidence area experiences highly negative outcomes, there might be legal hell to pay, in that the investigators did not take reasonable effort to access and minimize risk.

If you have a problem with the previous link to the hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin paper, try this:

https://drive.google.com/file/…x55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view